One key subplot this winter transcends any specific player or team interest, instead centered aro...

One key subplot this winter transcends any specific player or team interest, instead centered around someone working behind the scenes - and occasionally in front of the cameras.Uber-agent Scott Boras represents eight of the consensus top 20 free agents, and five at the top of the list: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso.Rarely does one agent have so much influence.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Last offseason, he represented a collection of stars known as the "Boras Five" - Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and J.D. Martinez. This year's crop is even more accomplished.How Boras advises his clients this offseason will determine which clubs win and lose in terms of roster improvement, and also whether he enjoys a personal bounce-back performance.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/cropped_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w220xh124_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w320xh180_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w640xh360_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w768xh432_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Newsday / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Boras isn't used to losing, but last winter represented one of the few Ls on his resume.At the start of the offseason, FanGraphs' crowdsourcing predictions forecast the "Boras Five" would sign for a combined $466 million. Those players' actual contracts totaled just $233 million guaranteed.That was a significant and rare miss for Boras, who'd been an outlier in terms of both signing clients to record deals in terms of total dollars and <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2233897">beating market expectations</a>.Macro-level factors, like the unraveling of the sport's cable TV ecosystem, were at play last winter. Local TV revenues account for about a quarter of team earnings, so that uncertainty likely played a role in reducing the amount spent by clubs, even in Ohtani mania. Spending on free agency last offseason ($2.96 billion), <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2024/level/mlb/sort/contract_value">was down</a> nearly a billion dollars from the previous year ($3.9 billion)."(Last offseason) 10 teams decided to lower their budgets from '23," Boras <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2873740" href="https://thescore.com/news/2873740">told theScore</a> in March when asked about his clients' contract shortfalls. "There was a billion dollars taken out of the free-agent market."What I've done with players like Carlos Correa - when the markets are not there, we got him a three-year guarantee for about $100 million (in 2022). He took a contract with optionality (a first-year opt-out)," Boras explained. "The very next market, they were spending, and there was more demand for his services. He ended up getting a contract for $200 million with a chance to make an additional $70 million. He converted a situation with optionality into something that more than doubled the value (of the 2022 deal)."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/cropped_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w220xh124_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w320xh180_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w640xh360_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w768xh432_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Stobe / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Snell is pursuing a path similar to Correa's. He opted out of the deal he signed last March, when he was coming off winning the NL Cy Young Award, to test the waters again. (Snell and Boras turned down a $150-million offer from the Yankees last winter before settling for a shorter-term deal with the Giants.)Bellinger, on the other hand, elected to remain with the Cubs for 2025. Not everyone trusts there will be a market rebound, and Bellinger is coming off a so-so campaign.Perhaps the market conditions have improved. There's less uncertainty related to regional television deals, but many clubs have taken smaller payouts to stay with Diamond Sports Group now that it's exited bankruptcy. Others are striking out on their own in partnership with MLB.It'll be interesting to see if Boras' approach is any different. He's certainly not lowering his initial demands.Ken Rosenthal reported Boras is seeking a guarantee for Bregman north of $300 million, nearly double what FanGraphs expects ($162 million).But the big question remains how long Boras is willing to advise his clients to wait, especially after irking Montgomery last offseason and losing him as a client.Boras, historically, is comfortable playing the waiting game, and generally plays it well."People call me all the time and say, 'Man, your players aren't signed yet.' Well, it doesn't really matter what time dinner is when you're the steak," Boras said in 2013.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/cropped_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w220xh124_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w320xh180_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w640xh360_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w768xh432_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mitchell Leff / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>During the 2018-19 offseason, Boras client Bryce Harper, along with Manny Machado, were the last two under-26 stars to hit the open market before Soto. Machado and Harper didn't sign until after spring training camps opened. They became the first free agents to sign $300-million deals.But they were steaks.When that approach falters, players are squeezed. The melting offseason clock favors clubs more and more as spring training camps open.Last winter, Montgomery was worth more than the one-year, $25-million deal with a $22.5-million option he signed with Arizona in late March. Public forecasts had him signing for more than $100 million. He blamed the late start to his preparation for his down campaign. After the worst year of his career, he exercised the option rather than hit free agency again.Montgomery later fired Boras <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/08/23/ex-red-sox-target-jordan-montgomery-says-boras-kind-of-butchered-his-free-agency/">and told the</a> Boston Herald he felt Boras "kind of butchered" his free agency.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/cropped_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w220xh124_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w320xh180_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w640xh360_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w768xh432_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rich Schultz / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There was a lot of squeezing in the market last offseason, in part because of Boras.The first 60 days of last offseason featured 44 free agent signings, well short of the previous 10-year average of 58.7. The guaranteed number of seasons awarded (97) was also below the 10-year average of 116 for the first two months of the offseason. And the market never warmed up.But will Boras change his approach? Will teams be more aggressive with large-revenue clubs like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, seemingly incentivized to improve their rosters? And how will things change if Soto signs early, as the industry expects? It'll be a fascinating offseason. Free-agent players as a whole need a rebound, and so, too, does the game's top agent.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29124533/related

Scott Boras controls this offseason

There was an immediate shift in sentiment among many Pittsburgh Pirates fans when Paul Skenes was...

There was an immediate shift in sentiment among many Pittsburgh Pirates fans when Paul Skenes was named the NL Rookie of the Year on Monday.On social media, long-suffering fans pivoted from, "Cool, our player won an award!" to "Wait a second, we just lost a year of club control over our best pitcher!"Many Pirates fans likely learned Monday night about new incentives in the collective bargaining agreement designed to reduce service-time suppression - a practice long employed by the Pirates and other clubs.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The new provision allows for players who finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting to earn a full year of service time if they didn't already qualify. That matters because players need six full years of service to become free agents and typically three years to become eligible for arbitration.Skenes spent 142 days on the major-league roster, short of the 172 needed to qualify for a full year of service time. The award gives him the bump.Skenes now projects to enter the free-agent market after the 2029 season instead of after the 2030 campaign, as would have been the case under previous CBAs.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Skenes' timeline" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-bR9U0" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bR9U0/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="293" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/cropped_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w220xh124_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w320xh180_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w640xh360_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w768xh432_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Todd Kirkland / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The intent of the new CBA provision is good: reduce service-time suppression, reward excellent young players, and incentivize clubs to promote top young talent to the majors sooner (more on that in a moment).But the new rule also adds a little more divide to the already huge gulf between large- and small-market clubs. For the first time in history, service time to reach free agency can be altered in the players' favor. Pittsburgh fans are already counting down the days remaining because they know Pirates management under owner Bob Nutting could trade Skenes before his club control expires, something the team did with Gerrit Cole following the 2017 season. Small-market baseball fans are well aware of the expiration date on star players' time with their clubs. There are no mechanisms forcing owners to spend to a salary floor, and dramatic differences in local revenues typically determine which teams spend on the open market.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/cropped_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin K. Aller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>As for the club incentive in relation to the new CBA provision, it can be debated as to whether the Pirates mishandled the situation.If a player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of MVP or Cy Young voting prior to reaching arbitration, a team can receive a draft pick awarded following the first round.The MLBPA wants promising young players to get to free agency sooner, and the union worked with MLB on creating a carrot to accomplish that.But the player must be ranked as a top-100 prospect by two of three rankings lists - Baseball America, ESPN, or MLB Pipeline - and have been on the MLB roster for at least 172 days during their rookie season to qualify.Because Skenes didn't debut until early May, the Pirates didn't qualify for that reward. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles earned the bonus in 2023 when Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson won their respective league's Rookie of the Year award.On a pure talent basis, there was no reason for Skenes not to be on the Opening Day roster. He was perhaps the Pirates' best pitching option the day he signed in 2023 after being the first overall pick out of LSU, and Pittsburgh's starting staff was thin this past spring.But it's tricky with young pitchers. Position-player prospects aren't subject to the same workload and injury concerns of the modern game as young pitchers. That makes it easier for clubs to have confidence in adding them to early-season rosters, like with Carroll and Henderson.The Pirates wanted to manage Skenes' innings workload in 2024, and Skenes said he benefited from spending 27 innings in Triple-A early this season. Whether they could have managed his workload at the major-league level can be debated.If the Pirates had been mostly focused on trying to limit his service time, they would have promoted him later in the season after <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/super-two">Super Two eligibility</a> had passed. Skenes' 142 days in the majors in 2024 would have made him Super Two eligible regardless of Rookie of the Year results.One rival executive said there "would be pressure" with his club to make sure a likely ROY candidate who was a top prospect, like Skenes, would be eligible for the compensation draft pick.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/cropped_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w220xh124_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w320xh180_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w640xh360_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w768xh432_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Whatever the case, the delayed debut cost the Pirates a draft pick.The Skenes situation raises this question: Could teams delay the arrival of young arms to ensure they're ready for a full workload once they're added to an Opening Day roster so the club can ensure it qualifies for draft-pick compensation? Or are young arms so fragile in the modern era that teams wouldn't want to risk wasting pitches in the minors if the arm is MLB-ready, even on an innings limit? It will be worth monitoring whether clubs change their behavior.As Pirates fans digested all this Monday night, as the looming threat of losing Skenes accelerated by a year, some wondered why the CBA contained a service-time bonus that's decided by a sportswriters' vote.The decision was collectively bargained between players and owners in 2022. An alternative idea of relying on WAR measurements to determine qualifying status was discussed, but the Rookie of the Year vote was ultimately decided as the arbiter.Monday's award voting is ultimately a big win for Skenes and young stars like him, a victory for the MLBPA, and the cause of mixed feelings for some Pittsburgh fans.Keeping Skenes in Pittsburgh long term would require a different owner or a much different CBA. Neither one of those scenarios is likely. The big takeaway? Enjoy Skenes while you can, Pittsburgh.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29104867/related

Skenes' rookie award traps Pirates in uncomfortable situation

Last week, we ranked where Juan Soto fits best. Soto is in a class by himself this offseason, but...

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Where do baseball's other free agents fit best?

Ross Atkins revealed something interesting about his club's internal expectations for next season...

Ross Atkins revealed something interesting about his club's internal expectations for next season at the GM meetings in San Antonio this week.The Blue Jays GM said the club's internal projections show an additional 10 wins next season from players they have under club control. Those wins wouldn't cost them a single additional dollar."If you just looked at our projections and the performance of players and did the math on that, you could make the case that we have 10 wins within our roster right now to close (the gap) if we deploy them appropriately and put them in the best positions to be successful," Atkins said, as reported by <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/how-the-blue-jays-are-trying-to-close-their-post-season-gap-this-off-season/">Sportsnet's Shi Davidi</a>. Atkins said that meant paying attention to "when they're playing and how they're playing and who they're playing against."<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Ten extra wins would've vaulted the Jays from last to third place in the AL East last season and put them two games behind the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers for the final wild-card berths.Ten extra wins alone wouldn't guarantee a playoff berth in 2025, but it'd reduce how much external improvement is needed.External improvement is expensive, whether in the form of free-agent contracts or prospects traded. One win above replacement on the free-agent market generally costs teams about $9 million.So, do 10 additional wins represent wishful thinking, or a comforting reality?One way to test Atkins' claim is through public forecasts. While they'll differ in varying degrees from a team's private evaluation metrics, some MLB front office staffers note the public forecasts aren't that different from the models teams create.One set of public forecasts available to us now is the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;type=steamer&amp;lg=&amp;team=14">Steamer projections at FanGraphs</a>.The difference between the Jays' 2024 fWAR totals and the Steamer projection is 9.7 wins. That ranks as the sixth-best projected improvement in MLB. <figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Steamer projections" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-5ZzbT" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5ZzbT/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="751" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>The player holding the most hidden wins is Bo Bichette.Bichette is coming off a dreadful, injury-plagued season and is entering his final year before free agency. He should be motivated to perform well in 2025, and his history of excellent performance suggests there'll be a bounce back.After a 0.3-fWAR season, Steamer is projecting Bichette for 3.4 WAR. Catcher Alejandro Kirk is projected for 3.9 WAR, a one-win improvement. The projection system forecasts improvement from young players such as Will Wagner (1.9 WAR in 341 plate appearances) and Spencer Horwitz (2.0 WAR in 552 plate appearances). Other younger players such as Joey Loperfido and Jonatan Clase hold breakout potential, too.On the pitching side, Steamer forecasts include growth from José Berríos (plus-1.0 WAR), Jordan Romano (plus-0.7 WAR), Bowden Francis (plus-0.6 WAR), and Yariel Rodríguez (plus-0.5 WAR).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/cropped_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w220xh124_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w320xh180_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w640xh360_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w768xh432_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Blue Jays need bullpen help. Perhaps they can find a gem or two in late-season waiver pickups such as Dillon Tate, Nick Robertson, and Michael Peterson.Combine bounce-back performances with growth from younger, intriguing players, and the Jays are correct to believe they can make significant gains next season.Player development breakthroughs could also bring additional improvement. Toronto ranks 14th in the majors in hitting balls in the air to the pull side, the batted-ball profile most conducive to home runs and power.Don Mattingly, the team's offensive strategist last season, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2913372" href="https://thescore.com/news/2913372">was indifferent</a> to implementing hitting programs to develop this. He believed hitters will develop such approaches over time if it suits them.Mattingly will return to the bench coach role in 2025, and the Blue Jays brought in new hitting coach David Popkins, who was with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins - teams that emphasize getting the ball in the air. Such skill changes are aided and accelerated by the modern feedback loop of tech and data in training.The Blue Jays could get more production out of players like Bichette if they began to better tap into pull-side power.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/cropped_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Sam Hodde / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There are error bars inherent with any forecast. But while the Jays' existing players could fall short of a 10-win improvement, they could also exceed it because of unforeseen developments.Forecasted improvements are no guarantees, of course. Even Atkins acknowledges a 10-win improvement alone won't be enough to contend for the division title, let alone a playoff berth."We have to look to add to that group year over year," he said. "Going from good to great is when both things happen."While signing Juan Soto might be a long shot, adding another quality starting pitcher could turn the rotation into a strength again.Adding a position player who can impact the game with his glove and bat like Alex Bregman would deepen the club's lineup and avoid having to make so many bat-or-glove tradeoffs.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/28964700/related

The Blue Jays say the current roster has 10 more hidden wins. Does it?

Juan Soto, the premier free agent on the market this season, wants Shohei Ohtani money - and he d...

Juan Soto, the premier free agent on the market this season, <a href="https://cmsadmin.thescore.com/admin/newsroom#/articles/3119449">wants Shohei Ohtani money</a> - and he doesn't want it to be deferred. No team has ever handed out anything close to that deal, even adjusting for inflation.Yes, Ohtani signed a $700-million deal with the Dodgers last winter, a record in terms of guaranteed pay.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>But because the deal was so heavily deferred, inflation will eat away at the eventual value. Ohtani is making a relative pittance, $2 million a year through 2033, then he'll receive $68 million in annual payments after that.The inflation-adjusted value of the deal is worth $438 million over 10 years, according to the MLB Players' Association.In other words, Soto's initial demands far exceed the present value of what Ohtani received.Do Soto's on-field performance and youth - he just turned 26 - make him worth such a deal? Or is it just posturing by his camp early in the negotiation process? Soto is represented by super agent Scott Boras, <a data-in-app-uri="" href="">whose record of accomplishment</a> is unmatched with star-level players.Based on recent comparative deals combined with market inflation, can we figure out what he's actually worth? One issue in assessing Soto's value is he doesn't have many comps.A player this young and this good rarely comes available in free agency. Aaron Judge's first full season in the majors was his age-25 campaign, the most common debut age for MLB players.The last time a star player entering his age-26 season was available in free agency was in the 2018-19 offseason when there were two: Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/cropped_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Luke Hales / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Let's examine their production and their contracts.Harper averaged 3.1 fWAR over the three seasons leading into his free agency. It wasn't until March that he signed a 13-year, $330-million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies that included no opt-outs. It remains the third-biggest free-agent deal in history. Including players who signed extensions with their teams, it's <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts">ranked eighth</a>.Based upon his three-year performance leading into free agency, his deal was worth $8.2 million per win above replacement, assuming he'd continue to meet his prior production level.Machado was more productive entering that offseason.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/cropped_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w220xh124_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w320xh180_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w640xh360_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w768xh432_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>He averaged 4.86 fWAR over the previous three seasons. He signed a 10-year, $300-million deal in February, beating Harper to become the first $300-million free agent in history. The deal was worth $6.2 million per win above replacement.Soto was a better performer than either during the last three years, averaging 5.93 fWAR.And he's improved his performance in back-to-back seasons, while Machado and Harper were more uneven.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Market value" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-WPQ51" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WPQ51/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="302" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Just on performance alone, Soto should attract the most dollars. But we also must consider the increase in MLB revenues and player salaries since Harper and Machado signed, with <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/193466/total-league-revenue-of-the-mlb-since-2005/">increases</a> <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/">by about</a> 15% and 14%, respectively.If one averages the dollar-per-WAR valuations of the Machado and Harper deals and then adds a 15% inflation bump, the result is a $48.88-million average annual value for Soto's contract.Apply that average over a 13-year term, and it yields a total of $635.5 million. So, perhaps Soto's demand for $700 million isn't that far off.This week, FanGraphs released its <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-50-mlb-free-agents/">top 50 free agents</a>, which includes a crowdsourcing prediction of what Soto will earn. That crowd's median forecast for Soto: 13 years and $585 million. A bit lighter than my estimate, but still a record in terms of adjusted dollars.Either figure blows away the overall No. 2-ranked free-agent contract (Judge’s $360-million deal). And when adjusting for inflation, Soto might easily exceed Ohtani in purchasing power.Maybe he'll top him in raw dollars, too. After all, Soto should have the Mets and Yankees bidding against each other.With <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3114012" href="https://thescore.com/news/3114012">so many</a> large-market clubs interested in Soto, he could perhaps push toward $700 million in non-deferred income. It's a massive salary demand, but it might not be far off from his true value based on recent history and growing revenues.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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An assessment of Juan Soto's true market value

It was just a year ago that the most sought-after free agent in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani, hit t...

It was just a year ago that the most sought-after free agent in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani, hit the open market, but another unicorn will be available when free agency begins Monday.Juan Soto is nine days younger than Bryce Harper was when the Phillies star entered free agency following his age-25 season in 2018.Harper was one of the most sought-after free agents in history due to his rare left-handed bat and relative youth. Similarly, Soto is about as young as a star player can be entering free agency. Only Alex Rodriguez, entering his age-25 season in 2001, was younger in entering the open market this century.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>And in terms of production, only Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Andruw Jones <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/t3Bh7">produced more bWAR</a> through their age-25 campaigns than Soto over the last 30 years.Soto enjoys perfect market conditions this offseason. Many large-market clubs need his services, and none could probably use him more than the top-revenue team in the sport.His decision will come down to two questions. Which teams are willing to meet a price tag exceeding $600 million? (Jon Heyman <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/10/31/sports/juan-soto-eyeing-a-historic-700-million-mlb-free-agency-contract/">reports</a> the Scott Boras client is seeking a $700-million deal, without deferrals, which would exceed Ohtani's record contract regarding real earnings power.) And among the teams that can realistically sign Soto, which need him the most to boost their playoff and World Series chances?<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/cropped_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> New York Yankees / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The following rankings attempt to balance need and plausibility in assessing where Soto might best fit:<h3>No. 8: Blue Jays</h3>Soto in Canada is likely a pipe dream. But after the Ohtani tease last winter, the fan base would welcome the sight of Soto stepping off a private jet at Pearson International Airport.Blue Jays ownership was willing to come close to the dollar figure Ohtani reached with the Dodgers last winter. What that means is a bit unclear, as the inflation-adjusted dollar value of Ohtani's heavily deferred deal is far less than the $700-milllion guaranteed figure.According to our analysis of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">payroll spending versus revenue</a>, the Blue Jays are also one of the more generous teams<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">,</a> so how much flexibility they have isn't clear. Rogers Communications, which owns the Jays, is also completing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3077868" href="https://thescore.com/news/3077868">a deal to buy out</a> telecommunications rival Bell's shares of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the parent of Toronto's other major professional franchises.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/cropped_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>But the Blue Jays are another large-market team that should be highly motivated to improve, at least in the near term.The coming season is the final year the club has salary control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The Jays also have a quality rotation under contract, but it's a group that's not getting any younger.Moreover, their pivot to trading bats for gloves over the last two offseasons hasn't worked, and they need more left-handed thump in their lineup. Toronto's 94 wRC+ from left-handed hitters ranked 23rd in the majors in 2024, and the club finished 20th in left-handed plate appearances.Of course, it's also possible the Blue Jays are thinking more about a rebuild, making them less likely to commit to a long-term megadeal. But if any player could help the club make a big jump in the coming years, it's Soto.<h3>No. 7: Nationals</h3>A homecoming for Soto ought to be considered plausible as well as compelling.While the Nationals aren't believed to be immediate contenders, adding Soto to a young core that includes James Wood, C.J. Abrams, and Dylan Crews could create a long-term dynamic lineup.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/cropped_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w220xh124_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w320xh180_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w640xh360_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w768xh432_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> New York Yankees / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Nationals have the lowest player payroll among all the Soto contenders considered here, meaning they can afford him.They also have a history of working with Boras on megadeals for players such as Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.While Soto would likely prefer to win right away, the final dollar figure will determine the winner for services.<h3>No. 6: Dodgers</h3>Could the rich become even richer?The World Series champions have been linked to interest in Soto, which would seem unfair to the rest of the sport.The Dodgers have less urgency to sign another superstar. Still, adding Soto to a lineup led by Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman could set them up for a run of multiple World Series titles, which no team has accomplished since the 1998-2000 Yankees.It's unclear how willing the Dodgers would be to further stretch their luxury-tax bill. But they have so many deferred dollars in contracts issued to star players that they could afford to sign Soto and become an overwhelming dynamo of a team.<h3>No. 5: Cubs </h3>Behind the Yankees and Red Sox, the Cubs are the third-ranked team in terms of surplus dollars enjoyed by ownership when subtracting total player costs from revenue.Even with Cody Bellinger exercising his 2025 player option, the Cubs could use another elite bat. The Cubs slugged just .396 from the left side of the plate last season. And even with Bellinger returning, there's still plenty of reason to pursue Soto.Adding such a star to a Central Division team could swing playoff probabilities more than any other landing spot. The Cubs' largest contract in club history is the $184-million guarantee to Jason Heyward in 2015, who was then a young, left-handed-hitting free agent entering his age-26 season.<h3>No. 4: Red Sox </h3>Red Sox Nation is frustrated with ownership, and for good reason. According to our analysis of revenues minus total team payroll, only the Yankees ($344 million) have a greater surplus of dollars than the $328 million by the Red Sox.Boston projects, at the moment, to have just the 16th-ranked Opening Day payroll, <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2025/sort/tax_total2/dir/desc">according to Spotrac</a>.Stars are needed not just to contend but to excel in October. The Red Sox know this well, as the Mookie Betts trade continues to haunt them.Boston is reportedly going to "check in" on Soto, per Heyman, but it ought to be serious about courting him. Soto would transform a good lineup (11th in wRC+ at 104) with fixtures like Rafael Devers and Jaren Duran and an emerging star in Wilyer Abreu into an elite one.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/cropped_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w220xh124_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w320xh180_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w640xh360_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w768xh432_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Winslow Townson / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Also, only Coors Field has ranked as a better park for left-handed hitters than Fenway over the last three seasons. Soto loves to use the entire field, making Fenway a great fit.One other plus? For MLB, Soto in Boston would re-ignite the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.<h3>No. 3 Giants </h3>The dream for the Giants is to have Soto smashing balls into McCovey Cove for the next decade.The Giants have aggressively bid for top-of-the-market stars in recent seasons but keep coming up short. For instance, just two offseasons ago, the Giants offered Aaron Judge $360 million, but the Yankees matched it, and Judge elected to remain in New York.The Giants are desperate for star power to compete with their powerful division rival in Los Angeles.In some ways, they're the most desperate team on this list. San Francisco hasn't won a playoff round since 2014 and has reached the playoffs just twice in the last decade.The Giants are 761-757 since 2015. They are average. They're tired of being average.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/cropped_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w220xh124_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w320xh180_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w640xh360_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w768xh432_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Perhaps the new president of baseball operations, Buster Posey, can make a better pitch to Soto than the previous leadership group.The Giants do have a history of signing an elite left-handed slugger to a record-setting contract. They did just that with Barry Bonds in 1993. That proved to be an incredibly valuable signing.<h3>No. 2: Mets </h3>No owner is willing to spend like the Mets' Steve Cohen. According to <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">our Scrooge Index</a>, Cohen is a remarkable outlier among owners - the only one willing to exceed his 2023 revenues with 2024 player payroll and tax payments.Cohen is the rare owner willing to operate at a loss, which makes the Mets the ultimate wild card. He's the wealthiest owner in baseball, boasting a net worth approaching $20 billion.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/cropped_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w220xh124_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w320xh180_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w640xh360_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w768xh432_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Not only would signing Soto away from the Yankees generate great back-page interest in New York, but Soto could also swing the balance in the NL East, the most competitive division in baseball last year. The Mets finished tied with the Braves and six games behind the Phillies.Expect the Mets to be among the finalists for Soto.<h3>No. 1: Yankees </h3>You could argue that no team needs Soto more than the Yankees. After all, he was integral to New York reaching the World Series, highlighted by his game-winning three-run homer in the ALCS that sent the club to the title round.There's also an important roster-building context. Aaron Judge is entering his age-33 season, Gerrit Cole is 34, Giancarlo Stanton will be 35, and Carlos Rodon is 32. Rapid decline could happen to members of that core sooner rather than later.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/cropped_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Yankees should have an advantage not just as an incumbent that captured the AL pennant, but they have the most revenue in the sport.That means, in theory, no one can outbid the Yankees, and few clubs should be as motivated to sign Soto.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Ranking Juan Soto's suitors by desire and potential impact

Haters can no longer place an asterisk on this era of Los Angeles Dodgers baseball.   These Dodge...

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New Dodgers dynasty begins, and lessons for all the October teams

This is one of the most talent-laden World Series matchups in recent history.  The New York Yanke...

This is one of the most talent-laden World Series matchups in recent history.The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers were the No. 1 seeds in their respective leagues, the first time top seeds have met in the championship round, in a full season, since 2017. The rosters are loaded with future Hall of Famers, perhaps as many as seven.And that talent is expensive. <div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The Dodgers and Yankees were two of three clubs to spend more than $300 million on player payroll this season. (The New York Mets were the other.)These payrolls have stirred debate. For some, this World Series underscores how imbalanced the financial playing field remains even with revenue sharing increasing over the years. For many fans of small- and mid-market teams, it remains an unfair game.Recall back in January when the Dodgers had spent more on two free agents (Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto) than the rest of MLB combined: $1.07 billion to $1.06 billion.In the Yankees' case, only six players on their 26-man roster are homegrown, the 25th-lowest share in MLB.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/cropped_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>While expanded playoffs often drive parity and create chaos in a sport that requires large samples to determine true talent, the three clubs with the most regular-season wins over the last decade are the Dodgers, Yankees, and Houston Astros. Over the long haul, money does buy happiness. And it is local revenue that largely separates the haves from the have-nots.The counterargument is that more owners should spend to be competitive. Ownership groups are very rich. Every owner could find a way to pay more for talented free agents if motivated to do so. Fans of the Dodgers and Yankees say it's not their fault rival owners do not spend more. Some owners do seem more interested in collecting revenue-sharing checks than competing.So, are the Yankees and Dodgers ownerships generous while much of the rest of the sport is too cheap?Comparing revenue to payroll, which owners are Scrooge-like? Some of what we found might surprise you.To answer this question, theScore employed <a href="https://d3data.sportico.com/MLBValuations2024/MLBVal.html">Sportico</a>'s team revenues for 2023, the most recently completed year, to understand clubs' cash-generating capability.Sportico says some, but not all, of its revenue data has been verified. At the very least, it puts us in the ballpark of understanding how much direct baseball revenues are created by clubs.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/cropped_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Harry How / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>We then used 2024 player payroll data from <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total">Spotrac</a>, including estimated luxury-tax payments, and compared the figures. Front offices sign most player contracts with only projections of revenue, so even if this isn't a perfect calculation to use prior revenue against current payroll, again, it gets us in the ballpark.There are other costs associated with owning a team, of course, but by isolating player payroll versus team revenues, we can understand the commitment level of ownership groups.So, which ownership group has the most money left over after its player payroll and luxury-tax payments? The New York Yankees.The Yankees have a $344-million gap between their 2023 revenue and their 2024 player payroll. They seemingly have much more room to add payroll but do not, likely in part because luxury-tax penalties provide an incentive to spend less.New York can pay Juan Soto this offseason and still profit.According to Sportico's data, the Yankees' revenues ($720 million) are 2.44 times greater than the 24th-ranked Cleveland Guardians ($295 million), whom they defeated in the ALCS.As wild as it sounds, the Yankees are relatively frugal. By percentage of payroll to revenue, they rank 12th. The most fan-friendly ownership group: Across town, the New York Mets are an extreme outlier.Mets owner Steve Cohen's 2024 payroll bill is $9.2 million greater than the team's most recent full-year revenues. The Mets are willing to spend at a deficit like no other club. Cohen is the anti-Scrooge. <figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="MLB Scrooge index" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-F3HX5" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/F3HX5/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="672" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Consider that the gap between the Mets and the next most generous teams in terms of revenue minus payroll - Arizona, Kansas City, Colorado, Toronto, and Minnesota - is more than $100 million. The second-ranked Dodgers' percentage of payroll to revenue is 35 percentage points lower than the Mets'.The MLB average for player payroll, including the luxury tax, stood at $203 million, according to Spotrac. The average gap between last year's revenues and this year's payrolls was $191 million.Without knowing the associated costs of running a baseball team - debt payments, stadium costs, and other employee expenses - this still suggests that many owners could spend more to be competitive. It also shows how the beefed-up luxury tax is a drag on large-market teams' spending.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/cropped_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>For a hint at teams' associated costs, we can look at the financial data for the publicly traded Atlanta Braves, owned by Liberty Media.(The Toronto Blue Jays are also owned by a public company, Rogers, but the club's individual expenditures are not broken down in the same detail.)In the Braves' most recent quarterly report, the club reported modest 4.7% revenue growth year over year, but a negative <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BATRK/financials/">profit margin</a>.Despite having the fifth-greatest gap between revenue and payroll and the sixth-largest percentage of revenue spent on players, the Braves claim costs are eating at their profit.theScore spoke with Bretton Fund portfolio manager Stephen Dodson in 2022 to understand why Wall Street was not more enamored with owning pro sports teams. After all, it seems that teams would be cash cows given the price of tickets and concessions. However, the margins associated with owning a pro sports business are not great relative to many other businesses."A sports team is almost always worth more to a very rich person than it is to a company who only cares about its cash flows," Dodson said. For context, while the Braves claim a negative net margin in their most recent quarterly report, chipmaker Nvidia's net profit margin was 55% for its last quarter. Tech giants like Alphabet (28%) and Apple (25%) are also far more lucrative businesses, according to financial statements.As Dodson’s co-manager Raphael de Balmann said in 2022: "Sports teams are a bit of a vanity asset, like owning a Picasso, and the highest bidder is going to be a very rich person who wants to own the team, so they (can) call themselves an owner of a sports team."And like a piece of fine art, most of the value of a sports franchise comes from the appreciation of the asset. (The other great benefit is that depreciation of assets related to owning a team can work as a giant tax shield.)<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/cropped_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin K. Aller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yes, it would be great for fans if more billionaire owners were willing to spend on the franchises they own, even operating at a loss in order to win. Winning is bound to increase revenue. However, a large portion of their cash streams, namely local and national media dollars, are fixed over extended periods.And there is a scarcity problem.One is there are only so many billionaires. There are 759 in the United States, and of those, how many are interested in owning a sports franchise? How many of them would be willing to operate like Cohen?Even though someone might have a net worth of, say, $4 billion, most of that wealth is likely tied to owning a company or other nonliquid assets. There isn't $4 billion sitting in a checking account.Until there is a mechanism forcing more payroll parity (hello, salary floor), talent will go where the money is. The have-nots will need to build from within and hope for playoff chaos.All of this is going to get more complicated as several teams work through the loss of their cable deals with the bankrupt Diamond Sports, which operated the former Bally Sports regional networks. The Dodgers, for instance, still have a lucrative local cable TV deal, while many other clubs will see a major reduction in broadcast revenue until they can work out new contracts.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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How generous, or cheap, is your favorite MLB team's owner?

Major League Baseball's expanded playoffs often shake up the postseason, but the Cinderellas have...

Major League Baseball's expanded playoffs often shake up the postseason, but the Cinderellas have all gone home this year. The World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers represents the first clash between the leagues' No. 1 seeds in a non-shortened season since 2017. It's also the first time these behemoth franchises have met in the Fall Classic since 1981.The two teams feature as many as seven future Hall of Famers, making it a rare star-laden matchup. For context, the last World Series to feature <a href="https://stathead.com/baseball/player-batting-season-finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=league_player_season_count&amp;comp_type=post&amp;comp_id%5B%5D=AL&amp;comp_id%5B%5D=NL&amp;is_hof=Y">seven or more</a> Hall of Famers was in 1959 when the Dodgers defeated the White Sox. (Future voting may change that.)<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>This series will also mark the 12th meeting between the two franchises in the World Series, the most common matchup in history. The Yankees hold an 8-3 edge.Let's explore each club's advantages on the path to the 2024 title.<h3>The lineup edge</h3>Detroit manager A.J. Hinch spoke to ESPN's Buster Olney this week <a href="https://x.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1848449081133387836">about a key</a> to defeating New York."One of the things to beat the Yankees, if you can just control the wrap-around at-bats. … If you can handle the guys on the back end of the lineup," Hinch said.The Cleveland Guardians failed to do that in the ALCS, particularly in the decisive Game 5.On a ground ball by No. 9 hitter Alex Verdugo with one out in the 10th inning, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio made an error on the flip from second baseman Andres Gimenez that would've been the second out. But the error ratcheted up the pressure as the Yankees' lineup rolled over to its superstars. Although Gleyber Torres struck out, the extended inning allowed Juan Soto to hit with two men on. His three-run homer all but ended the Guardians' season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/cropped_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>In the ALCS, Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton combined for nine home runs and 16 RBIs in 55 at-bats. The rest of the team had one homer and nine RBIs in 113 at-bats.The Guardians were beaten by the Yankees' stars, and there were often runners on base when they faced those stars.While the Yankees and Dodgers both finished at or near the top of many batting categories, New York's lineup is more top-heavy. Los Angeles' has more balance.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Regular season wRC+" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-7k4cv" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7k4cv/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="480" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>The Yankees have three hitters (minimum 100 plate appearances) who were at least 30% better than league average by wRC+, but they feature six regular postseason contributors who were below the MLB average.The Dodgers also enjoy elite star power at the top of their lineup, but they feature five players with a wRC+ of 130 or better. There are fewer breaks in Los Angeles' lineup. That's a big edge.The club's No. 7 hitter might most often be catcher Will Smith, who hit 20 homers and drove in 75 runs in the regular season while posting a 111 wRC+.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/cropped_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rob Leiter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Dodgers' likely No. 8 hitter against right-handers, shortstop Tommy Edman, is a league-average hitter over his last three seasons. He's a well-above-average performer this postseason, recording a .316 average, 12 RBIs, and a 123 wRC+.Rookie Andy Pages has batted ninth a number of times in the playoffs. He was a league-average hitter in the regular season (100 wRC+) and has been better than that in the postseason (113 wRC+).And if a pitcher can't retire those batters, Shohei Ohtani will come walking to the plate with runners on base. That's been a big problem for opponents as Ohtani is slashing .615/.737/1.077 with runners on this postseason. Behind him is Mookie Betts.Many Yankees relievers have relatively neutral platoon splits, so the Dodgers likely won't need to worry about late-game substitutions with weaker hitters like Chris Taylor or Kevin Kiermaier. They can simply let their best hitters hit.The Dodgers are averaging 6.4 runs per game this postseason, while the Yankees are averaging 4.8.<h3>The pitching edge</h3>Yankees manager Aaron Boone cited his rotation as an advantage during the ALCS last week. "I think right now, with the teams left, it is probably something that differentiates us a little bit," Boone said. "I feel like we're going to roll out four really good starters at you that have a chance to get us deeper into a game and hopefully set our pen up to be used even better."The Yankees' rotation allows them to play a more conventional game. The baseball world witnessed how difficult it is to sustain a bullpen as Cleveland's elite relief corps - the best all time <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3090404" href="https://thescore.com/news/3090404">by one measure</a> - began to falter. The Guardians' bullpen pitched 61% of their playoff innings.As theScore <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3099813" href="https://thescore.com/news/3099813">researched</a> earlier this postseason, the more often a batter sees a reliever in a series, the less effective a reliever becomes. We saw that with Cleveland as relief stalwarts like Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis melted down in key spots.Like the Guardians, the Dodgers have also relied on bullpen games out of necessity this postseason. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/cropped_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w220xh124_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w320xh180_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w640xh360_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w768xh432_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Ed Zurga / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>They've been plagued by injuries all season, tied with the cross-town Angels for the second-most pitchers used in the majors this season (40). L.A. is without rotation stalwarts Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw for the World Series.To date in this postseason, the Dodgers' rotation owns a 2-4 record and a 6.08 ERA, and it's pitching just 3.6 innings per start.L.A.'s Game 1 starter, Jack Flaherty, has been up and down in the postseason with a 7.04 ERA over three starts. The club’s No. 3 starter is Walker Buehler, who posted a 5.38 ERA in 16 regular-season starts after returning from injury. He's also been shaky in the postseason (6.00 ERA).The outlier is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will start Game 2 and has pitched like a front-of-the-rotation arm when he's been healthy.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/cropped_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Daniel Shirey / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Because of their starting pitching issues, the Dodgers' bullpen has logged 57 innings this postseason, most in the field, while their starters have combined for 40.The Yankees and Dodgers' bullpens were relatively even this year - Los Angeles finished fourth in bullpen ERA, New York sixth - but the Dodgers' relief corps has logged 20 more postseason innings than the Yankees after registering 24 more innings than them in the final month of the regular season.L.A.'s bullpen will benefit from four days of rest this week. The group has been very good this postseason with a 5-0 record and 3.16 ERA, but it'll likely need to continue to shoulder a heavy load while not burning out during a potential lengthy series.The Yankees have a more sustainable pitching plan.Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and 15-game winner Luis Gil give New York four quality rotation options.They've combined for a 2-1 record and a 3.89 ERA over nine starts and 44 innings (4.9 innings per start) this October.They give Boone more options that he can trust to work more than once through an opponent's lineup. When starters go longer, the game scripts are easier.Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt made 44 pitching and lineup changes in five games during the ALCS, while Boone only had to make 31 thanks in large part to his starting staff.The more decisions a manager makes, the more likely some are going to blow up. The Yankees' path is straightforward: win the starting pitching battles, reduce stress on their bullpen, and beat the Dodgers in a traditional way. Of course, working through L.A.'s lineup multiple times is a much different challenge than facing the Guardians or Kansas City Royals.On paper, the Dodgers have a deeper lineup, and the Yankees enjoy more pitching depth. In this World Series between the sport's two best teams, it'll be strength versus strength that determines the champion.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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In a clash of titans, the Dodgers and Yankees each have an edge to exploit

Wins and losses are rarely tied to one player - or one decision.  Decisions and performances are ...

Wins and losses are rarely tied to one player - or one decision.Decisions and performances are stacked, the cumulative result leading to game outcomes. But pivotal performances shape narrative and legacy.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>And an all-time moment combined those things when the Yankees won Game 5 of the ALCS Saturday night and clinched a trip to the World Series.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/cropped_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Against the Yankees, there are few easy decisions, few opportunities to relax.For instance, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt elected to stick with starter Tanner Bibee into the sixth inning in Game 5. At that moment, Bibee became the only starting pitcher Vogt trusted to handle a third trip through the middle of an opponent's order this postseason.Bibee had pitched well. He navigated through five scoreless innings, offering the Guardians' elite but overextended bullpen some much-needed length. Cleveland's relievers entered the night having pitched a whopping 62% of the club's innings this postseason. They were tiring, their velocities were decreasing, and locations were being missed more often.So as Giancarlo Stanton walked to the plate with two outs and a man on in the sixth - and a much less intimidating presence in Jazz Chisholm Jr. on deck - Vogt had Bibee pitch to Stanton. Stanton had struck out twice on the night, but he'd also homered three times in the first four games of the series.Decisions. Decisions.On the full-count offering, Guardians catcher Bo Naylor called for a low-and-away slider to try and end the inning with a chase. Worst case, Stanton wouldn't offer and he'd walk. Naylor emphatically moved his glove, the target, to below the zone. But Bibee missed the location. While his slider is typically excellent, this one hung in the zone, seemingly set on a batting tee for Stanton, who crushed it into the left-field bleachers. The blast left his bat at 118 mph.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/cropped_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Bibee knew by the sound alone. He dropped his hands to his knees, his eyes facing the ground, without turning around.The choices to stick with Bibee - and pitch to Stanton - can be questioned. But it's never just the decision. Bibee didn't execute. Stanton did.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
"Stanton leads all active MLB hitters in home runs. He’s on pace to finish his career with over 500 homers. But the way he’s done it has carved out a niche all of his own." (🎥 <a href="https://twitter.com/Yankees?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Yankees</a>)<a href="https://t.co/exS8mmMTyV">pic.twitter.com/exS8mmMTyV</a>— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1848032680727949636?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Stanton now has seven career hits against the Guardians in the postseason. All seven are home runs.After the game, Vogt, the rookie manager, was asked about how he handles his decisions."The way I do it is I ask myself what's true. You can write a narrative in your head and spin yourself down a negative path and beat yourself up and second-guess and go back, but what's true is you made what you thought was the best decision in the moment and then you leave it behind," Vogt said. "I have a mentor of mine that says learn the lesson, leave the event. You leave the event behind and you learn everything you can from it, and there's no going back."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/cropped_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>One criticism of Vogt, who helped the Guardians exceed expectations in the regular season, was that he too often challenged the Yankees' best hitters in this series.He trusted his elite bullpen arms to a fault.Stanton, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto combined for nine home runs and 16 RBIs over 55 at-bats.The rest of the Yankees combined for one homer and six RBIs over 113 at-bats.If the Yankees' star-power advantage wasn't evident in examining payroll alone, where the Yankees held more than a $200-million edge, it was in simply seeing the teams lined up across from each other in pregame introductions. Judge, Stanton and Soto simply towered over the Guardians.But while the Stanton blast deflated to the home crowd, it only tied the score. The series wasn't over.Zeroes followed. The Guardians looked to be in an advantageous position in the 10th inning.The bottom of the Yankees' lineup was due up against one of Cleveland's best bullpen arms in Hunter Gaddis, who relieved Emmanuel Clase. Vogt decided not to push his struggling closer, Clase, for a second inning.If the Guardians could avoid the Yankees' lineup rolling over, the advantage would swing in their favor.But with one out and a runner on to begin the 10th, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio appeared to rush the transition of securing a toss from second baseman Andrés Giménez to start a potential double play. The ball glanced off his glove. No out was recorded, ultimately allowing Soto to stride to the plate with two runners on base - and two outs - the score tied 2-2.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/cropped_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>If Rocchio fields the flip cleanly, Soto never bats in the inning. In an alternate universe, the Guardians are on a team charter flight back to New York.But Rocchio dropped the ball.And while defeat and victory are accumulative in nature, narrative is not.There are also pivotal plays, singular swings, pitches, and decisions that are inflection points for a game, for a legacy.These are the high-leverage spots where star power plays up, where overwhelming talent forces better execution from an opponent and can better capitalize on mistakes.And there is perhaps no hitter better suited for the pivotal moment than Soto.Moments like that one on Saturday night illustrate why the Yankees paid a hefty price to acquire one year of Soto's services last winter. Soto is set to be a free agent after the season, and he could be rewarded with record compensation.With Soto approaching the plate, Vogt had to pick between poisons: pitch to Soto or Judge, the AL MVP favorite, who was waiting on deck. There was no good choice.Throughout the series, the Guardians tried to avoid Soto more than anyone else. He walked a team-high four times, including an intentional walk to face Judge with the bases loaded in Game 2. (Judge produced a sacrifice fly).There are reasons to avoid Soto. He's harder to strike out than Judge. He's less likely to chase an out-of-zone pitch. He was locked in, having already homered twice in the series. And he's been a better playoff performer than Judge.For his career, Judge has hit .203 in the postseason with a .761 OPS, while Soto's hit .278 with a .906 OPS.Soto embraces the moment. His confidence borders on arrogance, as seen in his trademark shuffle after a take of an out-of-zone pitch and the way he stares down pitchers. His confidence is backed by his uncommon talent. He's on a Hall of Fame track. Through all age 25 seasons in MLB history, Soto ranks 23rd in wRC+ and on-base percentage.The argument to pitch to him was likely this: Judge is better with breaking balls than Soto, and the former was unlikely to see a changeup from Gaddis. The slider and changeup are Gaddis' top pitches.Gaddis also held lefties to .172 average on the season. So Gaddis pitched to Soto. An anxious Progressive Field crowd was on its feet as Gaddis began with a first-pitch breaking ball that missed inside. Soto shuffled, staring back at the mound.Gaddis followed with another breaking ball, perfectly located at the bottom of the zone for a strike. The third pitch was a hanging slider, which Soto tried to yank into the seats. He fouled it away harmlessly. Gaddis had gotten away with a mistake. Rather than scolding himself for an opportunity missed, Soto glared toward Gaddis, again nodding his head up and down.Soto then fouled off the fourth pitch, a changeup. He again nodded his head yes. With each wasted pitch, the advantage swung to Soto. Familiarity with release point and stuff so often favors the hitter.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/cropped_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Said Soto afterward: "I mean, I was all over him. I was all over him. That was the only thing I was thinking. I was just saying to myself, 'You're all over that guy. You're all over that guy. He ain't got anything.' And just try to make good contact, and I did."Soto then fouled away another changeup, and then a slider. He hadn't yet seen a fastball, but for good reason: Soto crushes fastballs, especially high ones.But, perhaps trying to surprise Soto, Naylor and Gattis agreed to throw an elevated fastball.Naylor again exaggerated the location, calling for the pitch above the zone.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Let's take a pitch-by-pitch look back at Juan Soto's breathtaking AB in the 10th inning! ↩️<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLBTonight?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MLBTonight</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Postseason?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Postseason</a> <a href="https://t.co/rt4mYnPVR0">pic.twitter.com/rt4mYnPVR0</a>— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1847866446321480107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Gaddis didn't quite get the pitch high enough. Soto had homered on a similar pitch location in the first inning a night earlier against Gavin Williams. He did it again, lofting a high-arcing blast over the right-center field wall. The Yankees fans in attendance, perhaps 10% of the crowd, roared.Soto paused down the first-base line before thumping his chest while facing New York's bench, which spilled out of the dugout.In the middle of it all was Yankees manager Aaron Boone, who had far fewer difficult decisions to make."(Soto) has just such an ability to seize the moment," Boone said. "Every big moment that he finds himself in the middle, he delivers over and over and over again for us."It was an all-time plate appearance by Soto.It was the pivotal play built upon the accumulation of stars doing star-level things, along with questionable decisions and faulty execution by Cleveland. And the Yankees celebrated on a cool fall night, soaking the visiting clubhouse in champagne and beer, knowing they have only one more step to complete.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 19: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees celebrates after hitting a home run in the 10th inning against the Cleveland Guardians during Game Five of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field on October 19, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio.

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Decisions and star power: How the Yankees returned to the World Series

CLEVELAND - Moments after Game 3 of the American League Championship Series ended Thursday night,...

CLEVELAND - Moments after Game 3 of the American League Championship Series ended Thursday night, I made my way from the press level at Progressive Field to the clubhouses.On my descent, I happened to share the same elevator car as the TBS television crew. In the cramped space, someone asked play-by-play announcer Brian Anderson about his emphatic calls of the game-tying and game-winning homers. He said he couldn't recall exactly what he said, just that he was yelling. Anderson's been calling baseball for 25 years and all he remembered was the emotion, not the words.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
The reactions and <a href="https://twitter.com/BAndersonPxP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BAndersonPxP</a>'s calls from the booth last night 🔥 <a href="https://t.co/zQPxaPtZ6O">pic.twitter.com/zQPxaPtZ6O</a>— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/BRWalkoff/status/1847302073744032228?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>After the postgame availabilities, I returned to the press level. Longtime Cleveland Guardians radio play-by-play voice Tom Hamilton was leaving for the night. He exclaimed to a passerby in the corridor: "You won't ever see a better game than that!"<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Hamilton should know; he's called thousands of baseball games, including the three World Series that Cleveland has played in since 1995. The texts flooding my phone and the posts on social media echoed his sentiments.Recency bias often plays tricks, preventing us from being objective. Immediately after we witness a great game or performance, we proclaim it "the best ever!" But that's an awfully high bar to clear.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/cropped_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Game 3 of the 2024 ALCS between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians was, of course, not a championship-round game. It wasn't even an elimination game. But it was objectively the best game of an MLB postseason that's included a few great ones so far. And by some measures, it was the best game of its kind in more than a decade.For context, consider Baseball Reference's Championship Win Probability Added statistic (cWPA), which measures how a player's performance impacts their team's chances of winning the World Series.The <a href="https://stathead.com/baseball/pivotal_play_finder.cgi">top play of all time</a> by cWPA was Hal Smith's three-run homer with two outs in the bottom of the eighth during Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. The Pittsburgh Pirates trailed by a run, and the blast flipped their probability of winning the World Series by more than 63 percentage points. The Yankees clawed back in the top of the ninth to tie the game 9-9. Bill Mazeroski's famous walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth is the sixth-ranked cWPA event in history (37.6%). Basically, it's tough to top Game 7 of the 1960 World Series.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE CLEVELAND!!!@CleGuardians <a href="https://t.co/pFJXq1Fghe">pic.twitter.com/pFJXq1Fghe</a>— Pete Marek (@PeteMarek) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteMarek/status/1847081260864491969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Thursday night's game was not in the World Series, so it's almost impossible to swing championship-winning chances at historic levels.That said, of the 10 plays with the highest cWPA in the 2024 postseason, four occurred in Game 3 of the ALCS - all within the final three innings and a 72-minute span.Those four plate appearances - two from the Yankees and two from the Guardians - shifted each team's World Series-winning chances by 3 percentage points or more. (There haven't been four such plays in a single game during the first three games of an ALCS since Game 3 of the 2013 ALCS between Boston and Detroit.)<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="10 biggest plays of 2024 playoffs" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Xt8Rq" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Xt8Rq/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="679" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>The Guardians were feeling confident when manager Stephen Vogt summoned closer Emmanuel Clase to the mound following a two-out walk of Juan Soto in the eighth. Cleveland held a 3-1 lead with a 91% win probability, according to <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2024-10-17&amp;team=Guardians&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2024">FanGraphs</a>.Clase was the top closer in the regular season, allowing just two home runs in 142 plate appearances against right-handed hitters. But he entered the game Thursday and gave up back-to-back home runs to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/cropped_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>If the Guardians had to do it over again, Clase and catcher Bo Naylor probably wouldn't have let Judge extend his arms to reach an outside cutter. Still, it required a remarkable swing to slash the darting 99-mph pitch just over the right-field wall.Stanton followed with a shot to right center. The Yankees' bench celebrated wildly, spilling out of the dugout. The game - the series - was in their grasp following their remarkable change of fortune.The Judge swing reduced the Guardians' chances of winning the game by 33 percentage points, and the Stanton shot shaved them by another 29.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Postseason go-ahead belly-to-belly from John Sterling 🔥🎙 <a href="https://t.co/ux4hvbdzGm">pic.twitter.com/ux4hvbdzGm</a>— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) <a href="https://twitter.com/nypostsports/status/1847064780214829435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>With the Guardians trailing by two runs in the bottom of the ninth, the once-raucous Cleveland crowd went silent when Josh Naylor grounded into a double play. Down to their final out, the Guardians' probability of winning had tumbled to 1%.That chance shrunk into decimal places when the next batter, Lane Thomas, was down to his final strike.But Thomas doubled, and Jhonkensy Noel - nicknamed "Big Christmas" - was sent to the plate as a pinch hitter with one job."He pinch hit to hit a homer. That's why we sent him up there," Vogt said.Noel smashed a no-doubt, game-tying home run to left. In the bottom of the 10th inning, David Fry followed with his walk-off.As Fry began to trot down the first-base line and the crowd rose, following the no-doubt arc of the ball's flight, Yankees manager Aaron Boone tossed his chewing gum in frustration. Two lightning bolts had vaporized the Yankees' opportunity to take a 3-0 stranglehold on the series.Postgame, Boone was asked if his club "might have felt, 'We've got this in the bag'?""Come on. No," Boone said. "Got this in the bag? Stop it with that."Any heartbreak the Yankees might have felt wasn't on the same level as Cleveland's after losing Game 7 of the World Series in 1997 and 2016.We watch sports for a chance to see the improbable. Fans seek moments of ecstasy, but they aren't as sweet without the bitter experience of heartache. Game 3 had it all.I got into the parking garage elevator with who I presumed was a father and two teenage sons."Good ballgame, " I deadpanned. "Best ever!" one of them responded.Hyperbole? Sure. But those who saw it won't forget it anytime soon.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Best game ever?! Appreciating ALCS Game 3

October baseball is a much different game than the one played during the regular season.  For all...

October baseball is a much different game than the one played during the regular season.For all the bullpen games teams use during the season to get through injuries or to hide temporary roster imbalances, the MLB playoffs increasingly have become the domain of relief pitchers. Relievers combined to throw 41.2% of innings in the regular season this year, and their share of work was up to 48.9% through division-round play. It ranged between 44.2% and 53.4% during the previous four postseasons.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Relievers have proven to be more effective than starters in four of the last five postseasons:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Starters vs. relievers (wOBA)" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-cx2cG" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cx2cG/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="579" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>October baseball also features more familiarity between opponents as series grow to best-of-five and best-of-seven, starting with the division series. Hitters never see the same starting pitcher twice in a three-game regular-season series, and rarely face a reliever more than twice.Playoff series are not only longer, they also have added off days to accommodate travel and TV scheduling. The extra rest means teams can allocate a greater share of their innings to their two best starters and their high-leverage relievers, particularly in the division series.While these dynamics seem great for teams with top-end pitchers, there can be a cost to exposing their best arms to the same hitters repeatedly during a series.Batters generally gain an edge over both starters and relievers the more often they face them in a series.Many baseball fans are aware of the concept of the third time through the order penalty for starting pitchers. Splits show their performance generally declines the third time they face an opponent in a game - in part because batters become more familiar with their stuff and release points, etc.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Times through the order" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-v0JA1" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v0JA1/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="375" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>That holds up in the postseason, too, and if often guides pitching strategy. Since the 2020 postseason, batters own a .310 wOBA against starters the first time facing them in a series, a .315 mark in their second plate appearance, .323 in their third, and .322 in their fourth.The sample size drops off after three plate appearances and the results become more noisy. Hitters post a curious dip the fifth time they see a starter (.272) before improving to .400 in their sixth plate appearance and .340 in their seventh.For instance, the Tigers seemingly had a significant edge with Tarik Skubal on the mound twice in the ALDS versus the Guardians. But Cleveland eventually got to the AL Cy Young favorite in Game 5, his second start.Lane Thomas blasted a grand slam against Skubal in the fifth inning of the decider, and it occurred during Thomas' sixth plate appearance of the series against Skubal, an unusual amount of volume within a five-day period.Cleveland leadoff man Steven Kwan went 2-for-3 against Skubal in Game 5 and was on base for the grand slam."When he hits the spot, you can't really do anything about it, but just being able to see that over and over is super helpful," Kwan told me following Game 5. "Being able to have that dialogue with other guys, too, and kind of formulate a team plan, I think all of those go into it."Thomas was sitting on a fastball for the first pitch of his fifth-inning blast because he picked something up after facing Skubal in the third inning, also with the bases loaded. "My first time with the bases loaded, I kind of was looking soft," Thomas said. "I thought in that situation he wasn't going to come at me, and he proved me wrong, and then the next time I was like, you know, I gotta be ready for the fastball. And he threw a good one that I could hit. "Perhaps even more interesting is what happens with relievers the more they face an opponent in a long series. The story's similar and the trend even more pronounced:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Times faced (pitcher vs. hitter)" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-4Olul" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4Olul/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="570" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Opponents post a .298 wOBA against relievers in their first plate appearance facing them, .300 in their second, and jump to .321 in their third. (The results become noisier as the sample size shrinks.)Relievers improve to a .282 wOBA when facing opponents a fourth time in a series, but batters then gain a massive edge, posting a .450 wOBA the fifth time facing a reliever in a series.Managers may want to consider limiting how many times specific batters see relievers in a series.For instance, Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes have appeared in every Yankees postseason game. Weaver recorded a five-out save Monday in Game 1 of the ALCS and pitched again Tuesday, in a non-save situation in the ninth, allowing a home run to José Ramirez.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611080/cropped_GettyImages-1706930983.jpg?ts=1729023333" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611080/w220xh124_GettyImages-1706930983.jpg?ts=1729023333 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611080/w320xh180_GettyImages-1706930983.jpg?ts=1729023333 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611080/w640xh360_GettyImages-1706930983.jpg?ts=1729023333 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611080/w768xh432_GettyImages-1706930983.jpg?ts=1729023333 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611080/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1706930983.jpg?ts=1729023333 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Sarah Stier / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Guardians relievers Cade Smith and Tim Herrin became the 12th and 13th pitchers to appear in all five games of a division-round series in the ALDS against the Tigers - and this is a time when a three-batter minimum rule exists. They were effective but perhaps pushing the limits.No pitcher's appeared in all seven games of a league championship series, although 10 pitchers have appeared in six games, including the Astros' Bryan Abreu last year, the first to do it in the three-batter-minimum era.Two pitchers have thrown in all seven games of a World Series: Brandon Morrow in 2017 for the Dodgers, and Darold Knowles in the 1973 World Series for the Athletics.In 2017, that usage - and Houston's sign-stealing - might have caught up to Morrow. He blew up in Game 5, allowing four earned runs without recording an out, giving up home runs to George Springer and Carlos Correa and a double to Jose Altuve. It was the third time he faced Altuve, Correa, and Springer in the series. He allowed one run in his first three innings of the series.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/cropped_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Guardians manager Stephen Vogt stayed away from his best relievers in Monday's Game 1's loss to the Yankees after employing a heavy bullpen strategy against the Tigers last week. Vogt seemed to almost punt the game to rest his top arms, after his bullpen absorbed 64% of ALDS innings pitched.In Game 5 of the ALDS, Vogt brought in Smith in the third inning. But against the Yankees in Game 1, he summoned rookie Joey Cantillo with the bases loaded in the third. Cantillo was one of the last players selected for the roster and he seemed overwhelmed in the moment, spiking multiple wild pitches into the dirt, allowing two runs to score."We asked a lot of our bullpen the last week," Vogt said before Game 1. "So going into (Monday), we know that they've got a lot of bullets that they've used. These guys work hard. They're strong. We're going to approach each game like we have all year. That is, 'Let's win today, and (then) we'll worry about tomorrow.' At the same time, we're very mindful of the workload that our guys have had. So maybe we can't overextend anybody, nor do we want to."The LCS schedule means Vogt has to manage his pitchers differently. Against Detroit, Cleveland enjoyed off days after Game 1, Game 2, and Game 4, and had a week off before the ALDS even began. There are only two scheduled off days for ALCS travel (Oct. 16 and 20). It'll be difficult to be as aggressive with bullpen usage. Perhaps holding back their best relievers Monday means they'll benefit later in the series. After all, in October baseball, it turns out there can be too much of a good thing when it comes to using a great arm.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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How much is too much when it comes to playoff pitcher usage?

A.J. Hinch is about as familiar as anyone with recent postseason play.  The Detroit Tigers manage...

A.J. Hinch is about as familiar as anyone with recent postseason play.The Detroit Tigers manager previously piloted the Houston Astros to several playoff berths and a tainted World Series title. He knows firsthand how the game is evolving to become more bullpen-centric, a trend even more pronounced in the postseason. October is when added off days and urgency warp how the game is pitched.But even having seen it all, Hinch said after his club's Game 5 loss Saturday that he'd never witnessed bullpen usage to the extreme - both in terms of quantity and quality - like he saw from the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>"I tell you what. I've been through a lot of playoff series where the bullpen gets used a lot," Hinch told reporters after the game. "But I'm not sure I've quite ever seen the Cade Smith, (Hunter) Gaddis, (Emmanuel) Clase pitch at that volume and stay at that level."In beating the Tigers, the Guardians advanced to face the New York Yankees in the ALCS, which begins Monday evening.The series will be a contrast in pitching philosophies - in addition to the stark star power and payroll differences. And a big question, perhaps the question, is whether the Guardians can replicate their ALDS pitching plan in a longer series.While the Tigers enjoyed a big advantage in having ace Tarik Skubal start two of the club's five games, the Guardians largely neutralized that edge through their bullpen-heavy game scripts. Can they do the same against the Yankees?Recall, by some measures like wins probability added, the Guardians <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3090404" href="https://thescore.com/news/3090404">had the best bullpen</a> in recorded MLB history. Cleveland leaned into it.In Game 5, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt used seven relievers - and mostly by design.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749777/cropped_GettyImages-2178158348.jpg?ts=1728850703" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749777/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178158348.jpg?ts=1728850703 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749777/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178158348.jpg?ts=1728850703 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749777/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178158348.jpg?ts=1728850703 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749777/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178158348.jpg?ts=1728850703 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749777/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178158348.jpg?ts=1728850703 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Nick Cammett / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"We had a little bit of a script, it went pretty close," Vogt said. "There were a couple times that we had to kind of go off the script, but at the same time, it was watch the game, see what the game is telling us to do."He added: "I think the best thing that we do is that we plan the game every night, and we've done this all year long. We plan the game. Obviously, there's nights where you have to rip it up, but we've talked through exactly what we want to do and when, and using (pitching coach) Carl (Willis), using the pitching staff, using the analytics, using everybody."Smith, one of the Guardians' top relievers, relieved Matthew Boyd in the third inning Saturday and became the first bullpen arm in club history to appear in five games of an ALDS. (He also set an ALDS strikeout record.)A few innings later, Tim Herrin joined him as the second such pitcher in club history to pitch in five ALDS games. And Clase, the top closer in baseball, appeared four times in the series. After blowing Game 2, he secured a six-out save to clinch the series Saturday.The script ran contrary to the plan the Guardians employed the last time they were in an ALDS elimination game, back in 2022 against the Yankees. In that game, former manager Terry Francona employed a traditional approach. It didn't work, as starter Aaron Civale was shelled early, and their elite bullpen arms didn't enter the game until it was well out of hand at Yankee Stadium.In this ALDS, Vogt and the Guardians were intent on having their best arms - their bullpen arms - enter games in at least neutral game-score situations.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749602/cropped_GettyImages-2178119964.jpg?ts=1728850776" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749602/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178119964.jpg?ts=1728850776 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749602/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178119964.jpg?ts=1728850776 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749602/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178119964.jpg?ts=1728850776 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749602/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178119964.jpg?ts=1728850776 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749602/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178119964.jpg?ts=1728850776 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Nick Cammett / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Consider that the Guardians' starting pitchers combined for only 15 1/3 of the club's 44 innings pitched during the ALDS. In other words, the Guardians' bullpen absorbed 64% of the team's innings in the series.<a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2210928">We've documented</a> how bullpen usage is generally increasing in the postseason - and in some recent postseasons, relievers have accounted for slightly more than half of the innings. But this approach from the Guardians was even more extreme.The big question is just how sustainable it is for Cleveland.While Smith told reporters he was feeling great physically after pitching in every game of the series, he and his bullpen mates won't have the same wealth of off days moving forward.The Guardians had an unusual number of off days entering the ALDS and during it. Because they enjoyed a bye like the Yankees, they had a week between their last regular-season game and their first postseason contest.The Guardians also had off days after the first, second, and fourth games of the series. There won't be as much opportunity for rest in the ALCS, as there are just two off days scheduled in a full seven-game series.The Guardians will be hard-pressed to be this extreme. They'll have to get more innings out of starting pitchers like Boyd and journeyman Alex Cobb following ace Tanner Bibee.Much of the Guardians' approach is rooted in necessity. They had only one starting pitcher that ranked in the top 100 of FanGraphs' WAR this season (Bibee).After Shane Bieber injured his elbow in April, requiring Tommy John Surgery, and Triston McKenzie never got on track following his elbow injury last season, a team known for starting pitching development and talent was suddenly thin.In a best-of-seven series, the Yankees can press an advantage they have with their starting pitchers. New York followed a much more traditional approach in the ALDS. The club's starting pitchers tossed 20 1/3 of 36 innings (56.4%).This is in large part a financial advantage, as the Yankees signed free-agent starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon to nine-figure contracts in recent years. But not all the talent is imported, as 2017 first-round pick Clarke Schmidt was very good in his return from injury late this season and again in his ALDS start.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749417/cropped_GettyImages-2177111751.jpg?ts=1728850746" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749417/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177111751.jpg?ts=1728850746 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749417/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177111751.jpg?ts=1728850746 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749417/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177111751.jpg?ts=1728850746 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749417/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177111751.jpg?ts=1728850746 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749417/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177111751.jpg?ts=1728850746 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> New York Yankees / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Schmidt will start Game 3 of the ALCS. Rodon will start Game 1, followed by Cole in Game 2. They also have Luis Gil, who won 15 games as a rookie, as another option. Could he be a high-leverage bullpen arm?"You never know. You never know where a game takes you," Boone said. "So, we'll just see. With the off days, I feel like we're still set up pretty good down there, but it is all hands on deck in these games, and you've got to be ready for any role."Vogt has been focused on getting to his best arms as soon as possible, without being exposed late in games. Meanwhile, Boone is concerned with sticking with his best starters as long as possible, as he did with Cole for seven excellent innings in the Game 4 clincher against the Kansas City Royals.These are two very different teams, and this series will feature two very different approaches.The Yankees are a top-three payroll team - as are the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets in the LCS round - while the Guardians rank 25th.New York can import stars seemingly at will, while the Guardians' sustained competitiveness is built upon draft and development, particularly on the pitching side.Whichever team can better impose its pitching plan might be headed to the World Series. Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/28659765/related

Polar opposites: ALCS pitching plans couldn't be more different

Anyone who isn't a sports fan who found themselves on New York City's 7 train Tuesday afternoon w...

Anyone who isn't a sports fan who found themselves on New York City's 7 train Tuesday afternoon was probably bewildered if not terrified.When the subway line bound for Queens started its journey at Hudson Yards station in Manhattan and a prominent fast-food chain's purple, pear-shaped mascot bounded onto the car, all hell broke loose. Mets fans began jumping up and down in exuberant glee, mobbing the character and chanting its name: "Grim-ace! Grim-ace! Grim-ace!"<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
OMG. <a href="https://t.co/rlpli0VbSn">pic.twitter.com/rlpli0VbSn</a>— Dan Bartels (@DanBartels2) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanBartels2/status/1843709384951767130?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 8, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>(McDonald's is taking <a href="https://pix11.com/news/local-news/grimace-is-taking-the-7-train-to-the-mets-game/">full advantage</a> of this marketing opportunity, as Grimace decals are also now adorned to trains.)<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The fans were en route to Game 3 of the NLDS at Citi Field, where Grimace now enjoys its own purple seat. Some fans are beginning to visit the seat before games, like it's some sort of shrine to the improbable series of events that have the Mets playing deep into the postseason.We can't explain everything that matters in the universe - baseball or otherwise - and it's difficult to explain how these once left for dead Mets will play in the NLCS, beginning Sunday in Southern California. New York advanced Wednesday on Francisco Lindor's series-clinching grand slam against the Phillies.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Francisco Lindor grand slam <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NLDS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NLDS</a> style with Howie Rose on the call 🎙️ <a href="https://t.co/u5Y3YLYrKn">pic.twitter.com/u5Y3YLYrKn</a>— MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1844167862673604903?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 10, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>What we know for sure: the Mets were 28-37 before Grimace threw out the first pitch on June 12 at Citi Field, then went 61-38 to close out the campaign and sneak into the playoffs on the season's last day. Lindor hit .231 through June 11.Grimace is the pivot point, certainly, but June 12 wasn't the actual low point.To understand this improbable season seemingly steered by supernatural powers, we must understand the depths of the nadir from which these Mets rose.On May 29, New York fell 11 games under .500, and during that 10-3 loss to the Dodgers, former Mets reliever Jorge López tossed his glove into the stands in frustration as he walked off the mound following a poor performance. Manager Carlos Mendoza was critical of López's action."I don't regret it," <a href="https://youtu.be/xT_Cqv_Y0Gg?si=4cqgr2u7tEockLGD">López said after the game</a>. "I think I've been looking (like) the worst teammate probably in the whole f---ing MLB."The Mets agreed: López was designated for assignment the following day.That was the low point: 11 games under, an ugly loss, and a player tantrum.FanGraphs had the Mets' playoff chances at 8.2% at that point, along with a minuscule 1.7% chance to reach the NLCS, and a 0.3% chance to win the World Series.Still, further context is needed to understand the sour mood around the club.This season's start followed a monumental flop in 2023 when the Mets finished 75-87 despite the game's top payroll: $343 million, nearly $70 million more than the <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2023/sort/cap_total2/dir/desc">second-ranked</a> Yankees. It was such a poor season, the team traded veteran pitchers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer before the trade deadline - they were supposed to be their shortcuts to success. Manager Buck Showalter was fired after the season, with Mendoza becoming the club's fifth skipper in six seasons.So, back in late May, the Mets again looked like another expensive failure following an offseason in which they didn't sign Shohei Ohtani or trade for Juan Soto, which added further fan disappointment.While the rebound isn't exactly a Cinderella story - the Mets still own the game's No. 1 payroll - it's definitely an improbable story.As hot as they were after June 12, they didn't secure their playoff berth until the last day of the season, a Monday doubleheader in Atlanta that was rescheduled because of Hurricane Helene. In a wild back-and-forth first game, a ninth-inning, two-run homer from Lindor - another clutch hit from the superstar shortstop - clinched their ticket.After their relentless push to a wild-card berth, their postseason advancement odds were on life support again last week, on Oct. 3, when they trailed 2-0 in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the wild-card round against Milwaukee. The Mets had two runners on base, but were down to their final two outs against Devin Williams, the NL's best closer.Here's the Oct. 4 cover of the New York Post, featuring Pete Alonso captured in mid-polar bear-like roar, bat still in hand, after smashing a most-improbable three-run, game- and series-winning home run off Williams, with the headline, "Miracle Mets":<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
🇺🇸 Miracle Mets! ▫Pete Alonso’s clutch blast sends Mets to NLDS in Game 3 wild card thriller ▫<a href="https://twitter.com/NYPost_Mets?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NYPost_Mets</a> 👉<a href="https://t.co/mVbecIDDST">https://t.co/mVbecIDDST</a>👈<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/frontpagestoday?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#frontpagestoday</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/USA?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#USA</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nypost?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nypost</a> 🇺🇸 <a href="https://t.co/rQ5neC5vML">pic.twitter.com/rQ5neC5vML</a>— 𝙵𝚛𝚘𝚗𝚝 𝙿𝚊𝚐𝚎𝚜 𝚃𝚘𝚍𝚊𝚢 📰 (@ukpapers) <a href="https://twitter.com/ukpapers/status/1842144380552937480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 4, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>The original Miracle Mets earned their moniker by beating the juggernaut 109-win Baltimore Orioles in the 1969 World Series. The 1969 season was the Mets' first winning campaign after seven years of almost nonstop losing: the club dropped 120 games in its maiden 1962 season, and 1968 established the high-water mark for wins with 73.New York went 100-62 in 1969. The '69 Mets were never underwater like the 2024 Mets, who in many ways are more miraculous.Today's Mets ranked second in the majors with 11 players in the <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/02Mhy">top 200 highest win probability added performances</a> by hitters in the regular season. (Win probability added measures changes in win probability from one plate appearance to the next, so it essentially measures clutch hits and often game-changing home runs.)Lindor had four of those 11 performances, including his Sept. 30 homer against the Braves, which <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL202409301.shtml">changed the game's win expectancy</a> by 65 percentage points.Wednesday's grand slam ranked as the eighth-biggest <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/NNbuD">WPA change of this postseason</a> (35%) through Wednesday's games; Alonso's homer off Williams ranks first at 64%.No Met at this point should be bothered by any high-leverage, stressful moments."I love (my teammates) for believing in me. I really believe in every one of them. I believe that anybody at any given time can do something special," Lindor told reporters after Wednesday's clincher. "We have a bunch of really good baseball players that can do a lot of things right. And when you focus on little things, big things can happen."<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Meme-able Mets" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-9zUX8" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9zUX8/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="700" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>While not all of billionaire owner Steve Cohen's moves worked - see last year's Scherzer and Verlander signings - the deal to trade for Lindor in 2020 and extend him has been a massive win for the club. It demonstrates the benefit of having a wealthy, committed owner, and that rostering star power is almost always necessary to advance in the postseason.Lindor trails only three position players in <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;type=8&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=2021-03-01&amp;enddate=2024-10-10&amp;sortcol=21&amp;sortdir=default&amp;qual=0&amp;season1=2021&amp;season=2023&amp;team=0&amp;postseason=&amp;month=1000">fWAR</a> during his Mets tenure: Aaron Judge, Soto, and Ohtani. Remarkably, Lindor hasn't been an All-Star since 2019. He posted a career-best 137 wRC+ this year and finished one steal shy of a 30-30 season.But the Mets aren't relying on one star and are doing more than just stringing timely hits together. They've been an excellent team since late May.They posted a <a href="https://x.com/PaulHembo/status/1844397831483949232">plus-127</a> run differential over their final 110 games. The lineup is loaded with core veterans like Lindor, Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo, and they're enjoying the breakout of new power threat Mark Vientos, who smashed 27 homers to go along with a 133 wRC+ during the season. They also enjoyed the return of young power-hitting catcher Francisco Alvarez at midseason. In the end, the Mets finished sixth in the majors in home runs and seventh in total runs scored.New York also deftly moved on after Verlander and Scherzer. Sean Manaea was brought in over the winter on a two-year, $28-million deal to address the rotation, following an uneven season with the Giants, and proceeded to have one of the best seasons of his career, transforming himself in recent offseasons at Driveline Baseball.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749111/cropped_GettyImages-2177500619.jpg?ts=1728592155" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749111/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177500619.jpg?ts=1728592155 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749111/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177500619.jpg?ts=1728592155 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749111/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177500619.jpg?ts=1728592155 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749111/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177500619.jpg?ts=1728592155 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749111/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177500619.jpg?ts=1728592155 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Elsa / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Manaea has a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 12 postseason innings, with his altered arm slot and slider-sinker-changeup mix giving opponents fits.The club also signed former Yankees standout Luis Severino to a one-year, $13-million deal as he worked his way back from injury. It's been a successful reclamation project: Severino went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA in the regular season and has thrown 12 competitive innings this fall.They've also enjoyed unexpected performances from veterans David Peterson (121 innings, 2.90 ERA) and Jose Quintana (170 innings, 3.75 ERA), who've combined for 17 shutout innings this October.Somehow, this has become a scrappy team with an underdog chip on its shoulder, despite its bloated $340-million payroll (which includes $62.1 million paid out to shed Verlander's and Scherzer's contracts last year). Still, remarkable as this season is to date, there remains work to be done to cement it as one that'll go down in Mets and MLB lore.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748665/cropped_GettyImages-2176088947.jpg?ts=1728592188" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748665/w220xh124_GettyImages-2176088947.jpg?ts=1728592188 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748665/w320xh180_GettyImages-2176088947.jpg?ts=1728592188 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748665/w640xh360_GettyImages-2176088947.jpg?ts=1728592188 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748665/w768xh432_GettyImages-2176088947.jpg?ts=1728592188 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748665/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2176088947.jpg?ts=1728592188 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rob Tringali / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The 1969 Miracle Mets would've been forgotten if they didn't win the World Series. North American sports culture respects postseason winners; 100-win teams that fall short in the playoffs are lost to history.Lindor understands the 2024 Mets require a little more magic."I want to win it all. I want to win it all," he repeated to reporters. "And then ours will be a team that will forever be remembered. This will be a team that comes (back to New York) every 10 years and eat for free everywhere they go. And I want to do that. I want to do that. But the job is not done."Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/28627440/related

New Miracle Mets: Expensive, but full of fun and comebacks

This is the postseason baseball needed.  This October is breathing life into the sport, after yea...

This is the postseason baseball needed.This October is breathing life into the sport, after years of declining TV ratings for its showcase events, after so much dire "baseball is dying" talk. It's also building on regular-season momentum in terms of attendance and audience growth following last year's major rules changes.The wild-card round set a new viewership record this fall: TV ratings were up a whopping 25% from last year.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The Mets-Brewers elimination game, in which Pete Alonso slugged a game-winning home run off Brewers closer Devin Williams, was ESPN's most-viewed baseball game since 2021.Ratings for LDS games through Monday were up 41%, <a href="https://x.com/mulvihill79/status/1843689464067231746">according to a network official</a>. The first four NLDS games averaged 3.7 million viewers, the highest such total for Fox since it began broadcasting games in 2014, <a href="https://frontofficesports.com/mlb-playoff-tv-ratings-soar-41-fueled-by-drama-and-ohtanis-debut/">according to</a> Front Office Sports.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748827/cropped_GettyImages-2177153005.jpg?ts=1728419444" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748827/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177153005.jpg?ts=1728419444 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748827/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177153005.jpg?ts=1728419444 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748827/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177153005.jpg?ts=1728419444 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748827/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177153005.jpg?ts=1728419444 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748827/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177153005.jpg?ts=1728419444 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Hunter Martin / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>For the first time in the wild-card era dating back to 1995, all four LDS series stood at 1-1 through two games. Further, each series featured at least one ultra-compelling game.This is baseball's best postseason in some time. Let's consider some developments that are making this a special early October.<h3>Rivalries </h3>One reason why October's been so compelling so far: rivalries. They add a layer of intrigue to games that are already meaningful.The Padres-Dodgers rivalry, for instance, was already heated, and is only intensifying. Now, things can go too far. There's never any excuse for fans to throw objects onto the field and endanger players - no matter how much the Padres' outfielders are agitating them.There's also no excuse for Manny Machado to throw a baseball towards the Dodgers dugout, which irked L.A. manager Dave Roberts.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748854/cropped_GettyImages-2177173740.jpg?ts=1728419512" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748854/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177173740.jpg?ts=1728419512 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748854/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177173740.jpg?ts=1728419512 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748854/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177173740.jpg?ts=1728419512 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748854/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177173740.jpg?ts=1728419512 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748854/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177173740.jpg?ts=1728419512 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Harry How / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"That was very bothersome. If it was intended at me, I would be very - it's pretty disrespectful," Roberts said before Game 3.Rivalries illicit emotion and actions that sometimes cross the line.But so long as that's not happening, so long as only words are being traded - like Jack Flaherty and Machado <a href="https://x.com/MLBONFOX/status/1843106230664827068">exchanging expletives</a> - rivalry is good for the game.Baseball is, after all, an entertainment product, as we were reminded when Jurickson Profar trolled everyone at Dodger Stadium in epic fashion:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
The natural sound is incredible when you realize almost everyone in the stadium thought it was a home run. But not Jurickson Profar or Xander Bogaerts. <a href="https://t.co/7OSMJptjL2">pic.twitter.com/7OSMJptjL2</a>— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffEisenband/status/1843143092272329096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>It's worth remembering that the 2004 Game 7 ALCS between the Yankees and Red Sox - MLB's top rivalry - topped some Super Bowl ratings for the New England Patriots in Boston. It was the most-watched LCS game <a href="https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2004/10/21/Sports-Media/Sox-Yanks-Game-7-Earns-Best-LCS-Overnight-Since-At-Least-90.aspx">since at least</a> 1990, in large part due to rivalry.Sure, large markets help ratings, but the Dodgers, Rangers, Braves, Astros, and Phillies were in the field last year. There are factors beyond market size that drive ratings.According to <a data-in-app-uri="" href="https://knowrivalry.com/">KnowRivalry.com</a>, which gathers tens of thousands of fan polling responses to determine the strength of rivalries, the Dodgers rank as the Padres' top rival by far, according to San Diego fans.But it's also the second-most unbalanced rivalry in MLB, as the Giants rank as the Dodgers' top rival according to L.A. fans. The Padres slightly trail the Cardinals and Astros. (There is lag time in polling data.)That imbalance adds an element of inadequacy and insecurity for San Diego, which is more motivational fuel for the Padres and their fan base. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748971/cropped_GettyImages-2176129757.jpg?ts=1728419574" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748971/w220xh124_GettyImages-2176129757.jpg?ts=1728419574 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748971/w320xh180_GettyImages-2176129757.jpg?ts=1728419574 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748971/w640xh360_GettyImages-2176129757.jpg?ts=1728419574 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748971/w768xh432_GettyImages-2176129757.jpg?ts=1728419574 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748971/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2176129757.jpg?ts=1728419574 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> MediaNews Group / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>On the other side of the NL field, the Mets and Phillies are each other's top rival, according to the polling data, and the rivalry ranks as baseball's fifth strongest. This is remarkably their first time facing each other in the playoffs.The Guardians and Tigers also rank as each other's top rival, according to the polling, and this is also their first time meeting in a postseason series, which could increase the rivalry's intensity.In fact, because only four wild-card berths were captured by AL Central teams since 1995 entering this season, compared to 28 by AL East teams, this is the first postseason series between AL Central clubs.An emotion-filled LDS round fueled by rivalry will be good for the game - provided no matchup spirals out of control.<h3>Roar restored </h3>Also making this postseason great: improbable swings.Kerry Carpenter was still beaming when he entered the postgame media room Monday night. He tried but failed to suppress an ear-to-ear smile as he seated himself before reporters; he was still floating.Entering the ninth inning Monday in Game 2, Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase had allowed only five earned runs during the entire season, and just two home runs - both to right-handed hitters. He held left-handed hitters like Carpenter to a .115/.143/.139 slash line.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748961/cropped_GettyImages-2177328206.jpg?ts=1728419612" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748961/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177328206.jpg?ts=1728419612 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748961/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177328206.jpg?ts=1728419612 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748961/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177328206.jpg?ts=1728419612 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748961/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177328206.jpg?ts=1728419612 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748961/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177328206.jpg?ts=1728419612 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Entering the ninth, the Guardians had matched Tigers ace Tarik Skubal zero for zero - a major win for the club on the day it started journeyman Matthew Boyd. All the momentum was Cleveland's as Clase came out of the bullpen.Clase recorded one out to end the eighth. But in the next inning, he uncharacteristically allowed two hits before Carpenter became the first batter to hit a two-out, two-strike, go-ahead homer in the ninth inning of a playoff game since Kirk Gibson's famed 1988 World Series shot."I don't know if I can describe it, but, yeah, I knew it was gone," Carpenter said, "and it was just an amazing feeling being able to come through for this team, because our pitchers are keeping us in these games like crazy."What's interesting is that Carpenter homered on a hanging slider, and the slider's Clase's second-best pitch. In fact, it was the third consecutive slider Clase tossed Carpenter, after opening with three straight 100-mph cutters, his bread-and-butter offering.Was Carpenter sitting on Clase's second-best pitch?"I wasn't sitting on it, but I was just on time for his hardest pitch, that cutter, and I was, like, zoning in for it to start in a certain zone," Carpenter said. "My instincts took over and he missed a spot. I took advantage of it."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748959/cropped_GettyImages-2177327968.jpg?ts=1728419650" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748959/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177327968.jpg?ts=1728419650 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748959/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177327968.jpg?ts=1728419650 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748959/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177327968.jpg?ts=1728419650 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748959/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177327968.jpg?ts=1728419650 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748959/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177327968.jpg?ts=1728419650 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>MLB's two best closers have each allowed game-winning, three-run shots this postseason. Remember: We can't predict ball.This October, it isn't over until it's over. <figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
I mean holy crap. These playoffs have been TOO good so far. Wow wow wow— Jameson Taillon (@JTaillon50) <a href="https://twitter.com/JTaillon50/status/1843421349546688656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure><h3>Shining stars 🌟</h3>There's plenty of star power this postseason, too.Shohei Ohtani is the sport's greatest draw and is finally on the postseason stage.Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are one of the best teammate duos of all time. Bobby Witt Jr. emerged as an MVP talent this year, José Ramírez is already a regular on voters' ballots, and both are still playing. The Phillies are loaded with stars, and Francisco Lindor would be NL MVP if it weren't for that Ohtani guy.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748504/cropped_GettyImages-2172047032.jpg?ts=1728419703" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748504/w220xh124_GettyImages-2172047032.jpg?ts=1728419703 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748504/w320xh180_GettyImages-2172047032.jpg?ts=1728419703 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748504/w640xh360_GettyImages-2172047032.jpg?ts=1728419703 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748504/w768xh432_GettyImages-2172047032.jpg?ts=1728419703 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748504/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2172047032.jpg?ts=1728419703 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jim McIsaac / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>But this postseason is also highlighting new stars.The most influential new phenom this October could be Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite. Underdogs that employ a true ace can do damage in October.Skubal was fantastic Monday in Cleveland, dominating the Guardians with a four-pitch mix, and will start a potential Game 5 decider for Detroit on Saturday. Skubal works fast, averaging about 13 seconds between pitches, and also moves quickly down the mound after beginning with an exaggerated leg kick. His stuff is A-plus, but his pace and deception make him even more difficult to hit. There's a relentlessness to his approach.The 27-year-old's seemingly having a blast, too. He motioned to Guardians fans in a manner that suggested the lively crowd didn't bother him in the least when he walked off the mound after the sixth without allowing a run and only three hits:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Tarik Skubal wants the smoke 😤 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ALDS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ALDS</a> <a href="https://t.co/xt9t1sToag">pic.twitter.com/xt9t1sToag</a>— MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1843408504918553052?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>"I'll be honest, I don't know what that was," Skubal said afterward. "Never done that before in my life. The environment here, first off, was great. I think Cleveland fans, this environment was incredible to play in, hostile, all that stuff that as a kid you dream of playing and pitching in front of."There's also San Diego's 21-year-old Jackson Merrill, an NL Rookie of the Year candidate. Before the Brewers were eliminated, 20-year-old Jackson Chourio carried over his breakout second half into the playoffs.It's a perfect storm of existing superstar talent meeting on the postseason stage, along with a national spotlight focused on the next generation.It's still early October, but this is shaping up to be one of MLB's more memorable postseasons in recent memory.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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The October MLB's been dreaming about is finally here

This year's postseason field is one of the most open in recent memory.   The majors didn't have a...

This year's postseason field is one of the most open in recent memory. The majors didn't have a 100-win team for the first time since 2014 after six straight full seasons with at least three of them. The last time MLB lacked a superteam, the 88-win Giants beat the 89-win Royals in seven games to win the 2014 World Series.This October, every club in the field has a path to the title. So how can your team win it all?<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>In theScore's postseason preview series, we now turn to the best regular-season teams - the top seeds that earned byes into the division round.Previously: <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3082414" href="https://thescore.com/news/3082414">Why the Royals and Tigers can win it all</a> | <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3082415" href="https://thescore.com/news/3082415">Why the Padres and Mets can win it all</a><h2>National League</h2><h3>No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers</h3>The Dodgers are perhaps the closest thing in the field to a superteam. They certainly aimed to attain that status when they handed out more than $1 billion in free agency to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.If not for a rash of injuries - they used the second-most pitchers in the sport (40) - the Dodgers almost certainly would have exceeded 100 wins.They still won an MLB-best 98 games despite injuries to Tyler Glasnow (gone since mid-August), Gavin Stone (out since Sept. 1), and Yamamoto (missed almost half the season but returned Sept. 10). Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is dealing with toe issues after missing most of the season recovering from shoulder surgery.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743049/cropped_GettyImages-2126324661.jpg?ts=1728068924" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743049/w220xh124_GettyImages-2126324661.jpg?ts=1728068924 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743049/w320xh180_GettyImages-2126324661.jpg?ts=1728068924 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743049/w640xh360_GettyImages-2126324661.jpg?ts=1728068924 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743049/w768xh432_GettyImages-2126324661.jpg?ts=1728068924 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743049/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2126324661.jpg?ts=1728068924 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Deadline additions such as starter Jack Flaherty and new closer Michael Kopech - whom the Dodgers quickly improved by limiting his reliance on his fastball - were much-needed. If the Dodgers are to win it all, both will likely play prominent roles.Still, no other team in the October playoff sprint boasts a top of the lineup like the Dodgers'.Rostering Ohtani is a cheat code. The first player to record a 50-50 season, his individual ability to alter a series with his bat is unrivaled in the NL field. Fellow former MVPs Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman follow him in the batting order.Star power alone isn't enough to contend for a title (just ask Ohtani, who's finally making his first playoff appearance after leaving Mike Trout and the Angels), but the Dodgers also have depth. In MLB history, World Series-winning teams roster an average of 4.1 position players who compiled more than 3.0 WAR. The Dodgers have seven such players, the most of any team this season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747167/cropped_GettyImages-2173817882.jpg?ts=1728068823" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747167/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173817882.jpg?ts=1728068823 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747167/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173817882.jpg?ts=1728068823 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747167/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173817882.jpg?ts=1728068823 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747167/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173817882.jpg?ts=1728068823 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747167/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173817882.jpg?ts=1728068823 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Behind the lineup's Big Three, Teoscar Hernández set a career high this season with 33 homers. Former top prospect Gavin Lux, who'd struggled mightily in his big-league career so far, posted a 152 wRC+ in the second half as the club's No. 8 hitter.Power can have an even bigger impact in the postseason because fewer balls are generally put in play, which makes it difficult to score by stringing hits together. The Dodgers have plenty of power; they led the NL in homers and the majors in slugging percentage. According to FanGraphs' ZiPS projections, they have the strongest roster in the postseason field.If the Dodgers can somehow cobble together enough pitching, they can slug their way to a championship.<h3>No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies</h3>The Phillies have captured postseason magic in back-to-back Octobers under manager Rob Thomson, advancing to the World Series in 2022 and making the NLCS last fall. While it's difficult to know the true value of a manager, Thomson does get the most out of his players.Another reason the Phillies have exceeded expectations in the last two autumns is because the regular season and postseason are two different games, and they're better suited for the playoffs.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/555188/cropped_GettyImages-1244531926.jpg?ts=1728069018" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/555188/w220xh124_GettyImages-1244531926.jpg?ts=1728069018 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/555188/w320xh180_GettyImages-1244531926.jpg?ts=1728069018 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/555188/w640xh360_GettyImages-1244531926.jpg?ts=1728069018 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/555188/w768xh432_GettyImages-1244531926.jpg?ts=1728069018 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/555188/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1244531926.jpg?ts=1728069018 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>They have power bats - home runs account for a greater share of run scoring in the postseason - along with top-end starters in Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and now Cristopher Sánchez. The best pitchers on a team can handle the lion's share of playoff innings thanks to added travel days.The Phillies still feature those components, and this year, they're even better in couple of key areas.They're deeper, especially on the pitching side. Sánchez carried over his form from the end of last season to emerge as another strong rotation option. The bullpen is loaded with Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, and Carlos Estévez.The Phillies also improved a weakness that plagued them in recent years: defense.After ranking 28th in FanGraphs' defensive value measure in 2022 and 22nd last season, they made a huge leap to ninth this year. Using Defensive Runs Saved, they climbed from minus-33 in 2022 to minus-30 in 2023 to plus-3 this year. That's estimated to be worth about three wins, and the Phillies won five more games than in 2023, finishing with a Thomson-era best 95.After converting to first base following elbow surgery last season, Bryce Harper posted better defensive metrics in 2024. His Outs Above Average mark from Statcast climbed from zero last year to plus-7 this year.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/594801/cropped_GettyImages-1717853900.jpg?ts=1697215330" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/594801/w220xh124_GettyImages-1717853900.jpg?ts=1697215330 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/594801/w320xh180_GettyImages-1717853900.jpg?ts=1697215330 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/594801/w640xh360_GettyImages-1717853900.jpg?ts=1697215330 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/594801/w768xh432_GettyImages-1717853900.jpg?ts=1697215330 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/594801/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1717853900.jpg?ts=1697215330 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Sarah Stier / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>At third base, Alec Bohm - who was worth minus-40 DRS relative to MLB average over the last three years - improved to league average.Johan Rojas logged more innings in center field where he's an above-average defender, allowing Brandon Marsh to spend more time flanking him in left. In turn, that allowed Kyle Schwarber, a poor defender, to spend most of his time at DH. Philadelphia made a 25-DRS turnaround in left field alone (plus-12 from minus-13 in 2023).The Phillies might be the most balanced team remaining, and FanGraphs gives them the best chance to win it all (19.6%).<h2>American League</h2><h3>No. 1 New York Yankees</h3>Only one team in MLB history featured two teammates who produced double-digit bWAR: the famed 1927 Yankees with Babe Ruth (12.6) and Lou Gehrig (11.9).Legend has it that Ruth's and Gehrig's incredible batting practice performances demoralized the Pittsburgh Pirates before they even stepped on the field for the World Series, where the Yankees swept them in four games.This year, Aaron Judge (10.8 bWAR) and Juan Soto (7.9) fell just shy of landing in the top-five duos of all time. If they can both perform at the top of their games in October, they'll pose a huge challenge for opponents.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744727/cropped_GettyImages-2169121046.jpg?ts=1728069065" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744727/w220xh124_GettyImages-2169121046.jpg?ts=1728069065 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744727/w320xh180_GettyImages-2169121046.jpg?ts=1728069065 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744727/w640xh360_GettyImages-2169121046.jpg?ts=1728069065 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744727/w768xh432_GettyImages-2169121046.jpg?ts=1728069065 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744727/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2169121046.jpg?ts=1728069065 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jim McIsaac / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Yankees enter the postseason with the AL's most fearsome one-two punch, and they're right there with the Dodgers in terms of top-end star power. Of course, this is a team sport, and two great players can't win a title by themselves. The '27 Yankees had five position players who compiled more than 7.0 WAR.To support Judge and Soto, the Yankees need contributions from their next tier of hitters, including Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.New York also needs solid performances from its secondary arms behind Game 1 and 2 starters Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. Yankees starting pitchers ranked 18th in ERA (4.22) and 16th in xFIP (4.11) in the second half of the season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738198/cropped_GettyImages-2162836556.jpg?ts=1728069101" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738198/w220xh124_GettyImages-2162836556.jpg?ts=1728069101 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738198/w320xh180_GettyImages-2162836556.jpg?ts=1728069101 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738198/w640xh360_GettyImages-2162836556.jpg?ts=1728069101 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738198/w768xh432_GettyImages-2162836556.jpg?ts=1728069101 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738198/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2162836556.jpg?ts=1728069101 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jim McIsaac / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt could get the ball for Game 3. Gil won 15 games, but his command issues (5.6 walks per nine in the second half) make him a possible liability, and his ERA (3.50) being a full run lower than his xFIP (4.35) suggests he's benefited from good fortune. Schmidt allowed seven runs in 9 1/3 innings across in his final two starts.The Yankees led the AL in run differential (plus-147), and they have the stars. But their supporting cast will determine whether they can go all the way.<h3>No. 2 Cleveland Guardians</h3>The Guardians appear to have overachieved, earning a first-round bye despite tying for the 10th-best run differential in MLB.There aren't many household names on the roster. Only two of their position players cracked the top 70 in WAR, and they've got a single starting pitcher in the top 100.But one area of a roster allows a team to outperform expectations, and that's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3090404" href="https://thescore.com/news/3090404">an elite bullpen</a>. Cleveland's 2024 bullpen is MLB's best by Win Probability Added dating back to 1974.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741906/cropped_GettyImages-2166008730.jpg?ts=1728069125" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741906/w220xh124_GettyImages-2166008730.jpg?ts=1728069125 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741906/w320xh180_GettyImages-2166008730.jpg?ts=1728069125 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741906/w640xh360_GettyImages-2166008730.jpg?ts=1728069125 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741906/w768xh432_GettyImages-2166008730.jpg?ts=1728069125 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741906/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2166008730.jpg?ts=1728069125 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>That explains why the Guardians have the most comeback wins in the AL and the lowest percentage of blown saves. When games are close late, closer Emmanuel Clase and setup men Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis give the Guardians an edge.That's a valuable superpower considering a club's best arms pitch an even greater share of innings in October. And in recent postseasons, relievers have taken on an even bigger workload: Last year, relievers accounted for 42% of regular-season innings but 46.2% of postseason innings. In 2020 and 2021, starters - for the first time - pitched fewer than half of the playoff innings.But Cleveland needs bigger contributions from other areas of the roster to win its first World Series since 1948.The starting rotation has to be competent enough to keep the club within striking distance in order to capitalize on the strength of the bullpen. After Tanner Bibee, the Guardians' Game 1 starter, there are a lot of questions.Cleveland is also counting on its erratic offense to heat up and give superstar third baseman José Ramírez some help.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741961/cropped_GettyImages-2167168772.jpg?ts=1728069153" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741961/w220xh124_GettyImages-2167168772.jpg?ts=1728069153 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741961/w320xh180_GettyImages-2167168772.jpg?ts=1728069153 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741961/w640xh360_GettyImages-2167168772.jpg?ts=1728069153 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741961/w768xh432_GettyImages-2167168772.jpg?ts=1728069153 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741961/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2167168772.jpg?ts=1728069153 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> John Fisher / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Steven Kwan hit .400 for a couple of months and then went ice-cold, batting .206 in the second half and .195 in September. David Fry was an unlikely All-Star but his bat, too, went silent in the second half. Josh Naylor experienced a recent power outage after a breakout first half.The Guardians picked up an outfield regular in Lane Thomas at the trade deadline. He's a quality addition, but he's best deployed as a platoon player based on his below-average splits against right-handed pitching.Perhaps Cleveland's offense can get a boost from rookie Kyle Manzardo, a top prospect who came over in the Aaron Civale trade last summer.Since his recall at the start of September, Manzardo has tapped into his pull-side power and more consistently put together competitive plate appearances. After struggling in his first stint at the major-league level (59 wRC+), he excelled in his second (147 wRC+).Seeding also matters a lot for the Guardians; the club owns one of the best home-field records, trailing only the Phillies and Dodgers. Cleveland is loaded with left-handed batters, and the renovations that removed part of Progressive Field's upper deck made the ballpark factors more favorable to lefty hitters.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Why your team can win the World Series: No. 1 and 2 seeds

Very little about the Cleveland Guardians suggests they should be playing October baseball.  They...

Very little about the Cleveland Guardians suggests they should be playing October baseball.They're the No. 2 seed in the American League despite having the 23rd-ranked payroll. They secured a first-round bye and begin play Saturday in the division series versus the Detroit Tigers despite rostering few household names.The Guardians were one of six teams to exceed 90 wins this season despite being tied for 10th in run differential.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>They have only one starting pitcher in the top 100 of fWAR (Tanner Bibee is 20th).They have only two position players who rank in the top 70: José Ramírez and Steven Kwan. Ramírez is one of the game's true superstars, though he's perhaps underappreciated playing in a small market. He came within one home run of authoring a 40-homer, 40-steal season and had a wRC+ of 141.By about any measure, Cleveland has beaten expectations. Pundits didn't expect much from the club, nor did most projection systems. FanGraphs predicted the Guardians to go 80-82 and miss the playoffs.How they became one of the top contenders in MLB isn't immediately obvious.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><center>––––––––––</center></figure>As one rival executive explained to theScore, it's simple: "They have the game's best ever bullpen."Best ever? According to Win Probability Added - which measures players' effect on games based on the change in win probability after each plate appearance - the Guardians do have the most effective relief corps <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=c%2C4%2C5%2C11%2C7%2C8%2C13%2C-1%2C36%2C37%2C40%2C43%2C44%2C48%2C51%2C-1%2C240%2C-1%2C6%2C332%2C45%2C62%2C-1%2C59%2C63&amp;month=0&amp;ind=1&amp;team=0%2Cts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;stats=rel&amp;v_cr=202301&amp;sortcol=21&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pageitems=2000000000&amp;season1=1974&amp;season=2024&amp;pagenum=1">since 1974</a>, the first year in which the metric is available.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Top 10 WPA bullpens" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-iu8Xt" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iu8Xt/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="549" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743217/cropped_GettyImages-2167573369.jpg?ts=1727986106" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743217/w220xh124_GettyImages-2167573369.jpg?ts=1727986106 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743217/w320xh180_GettyImages-2167573369.jpg?ts=1727986106 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743217/w640xh360_GettyImages-2167573369.jpg?ts=1727986106 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743217/w768xh432_GettyImages-2167573369.jpg?ts=1727986106 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743217/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2167573369.jpg?ts=1727986106 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Diamond Images / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Because win expectancy generally features greater swings later in games as chances to change the outcome dwindle, it's seen as a better stat with which to measure relievers.An elite bullpen can, perhaps more than any other team component, allow a club to overachieve. Based on FanGraphs' calculations using WPA and run expectancy from the 24 base-out states (RE24), the Guardians' bullpen accounted for more than 11 wins based on its performance this season, led by closer Emmanuel Clase.The Guardians had 42 come-from-behind victories this year, most in the AL, and they were tied for the fewest blown saves (15) with the Reds. However, Cincinnati had far fewer save opportunities, so Cleveland finished with the best save percentage (77%) in baseball."When a starter comes out, we are giving ourselves a chance," Guardians general manager Mike Chernoff told me recently. "When you have the most come-from-behind wins and the fewest blow leads, it's going to give you a chance to win more games. And I think that can be a little bit hidden because that's one aspect of the game that is overweighted in those situations."Clase (47 saves, 0.61 ERA) is having a career year after already establishing himself as one of the game's best end-game options. Hitters simply don't get a good look at his 100-mph cutters. He's Mariano Rivera with added velocity.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/629732/cropped_GettyImages-2154061718.jpg?ts=1727986134" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/629732/w220xh124_GettyImages-2154061718.jpg?ts=1727986134 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/629732/w320xh180_GettyImages-2154061718.jpg?ts=1727986134 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/629732/w640xh360_GettyImages-2154061718.jpg?ts=1727986134 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/629732/w768xh432_GettyImages-2154061718.jpg?ts=1727986134 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/629732/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2154061718.jpg?ts=1727986134 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Hunter Gaddis would be most teams' top relief option, but he's just a setup man in Cleveland with a 1.57 ERA. Same goes for Cade Smith (12.3 strikeouts per nine against 2.1 walks and a 1.91 ERA).The group's 18% K-BB% mark ranks 24th all time among bullpens, another elite mark, and it doesn't walk a lot of opponents. Cleveland allows weaker-than-average contact when the ball is put in play as well.The Guardians are also well-built for their ballpark. They enjoyed the best home-field record in the AL this season at 50-30.The home-field advantage is notable this year as some portions of the ballpark's upper deck were removed amid winter renovations. Those removed areas are parallel to one another across the stadium. The open space is akin to opening two windows across from each other in a room, creating a wind-tunnel effect.This new air flow, at least on certain days, is believed to have made the park more favorable to left-handed hitters. The park is playing as the 10th-most favorable for lefties this season, according to BaseballSavant's ballpark factors (103), compared to an average ranking of 29th over the previous three years (94).That matters because only the Boston Red Sox had more left-handed plate appearances this year than Cleveland (3,040).The Guardians are the 10th-best offensive team at home (109 wRC+) but rank just 19th on the road (93 wRC+).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741935/cropped_GettyImages-2167636527.jpg?ts=1727986171" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741935/w220xh124_GettyImages-2167636527.jpg?ts=1727986171 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741935/w320xh180_GettyImages-2167636527.jpg?ts=1727986171 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741935/w640xh360_GettyImages-2167636527.jpg?ts=1727986171 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741935/w768xh432_GettyImages-2167636527.jpg?ts=1727986171 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741935/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2167636527.jpg?ts=1727986171 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Stobe / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>This might make it seem like Cleveland is susceptible to left-handed pitching, but the club owns MLB's greatest platoon advantage thanks to three switch-hitters and regular field platoons.The Guardians deployed a platoon advantage in 71.6% of their plate appearances, five percentage points greater than the second-ranked Orioles and well above the MLB average of 54.1%.On defense, Cleveland trailed only the Toronto Blue Jays in defensive runs saved (84). That suggests the club picked up about eight wins over the average defensive team thanks to defensive prowess from players like Andrés Giménez, who was <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=fld&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=1&amp;season=2024&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;sortcol=12&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1">tied for second</a> in the majors with 20.Clubhouse culture is the other hidden factor in a team's success. After struggling in his first exposure to major-league pitching, Cleveland rookie first baseman Kyle Manzardo launched a go-ahead, two-run homer against the division-rival Twins on Sept. 16 en route to a come-from-behind victory.Standing at second base was Cleveland first baseman Josh Naylor. He raised his arms into the air with much of the crowd as he tracked the ball into the right-field seats. When Manzardo reached home plate, Naylor emphatically greeted him with a bear hug and exclaimed something.What did he say? "I don't remember, I don't remember much of that trip around the bases," Manzardo told theScore of floating around the diamond after the biggest hit of his career. "He's a great teammate. It's easy to root for everyone here. Everyone has the same goal. It makes it more fun, more enjoyable to be around."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741020/cropped_GettyImages-2161701047.jpg?ts=1723583359" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741020/w220xh124_GettyImages-2161701047.jpg?ts=1723583359 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741020/w320xh180_GettyImages-2161701047.jpg?ts=1723583359 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741020/w640xh360_GettyImages-2161701047.jpg?ts=1723583359 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741020/w768xh432_GettyImages-2161701047.jpg?ts=1723583359 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741020/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2161701047.jpg?ts=1723583359 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Diamond Images / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>First-year manager Stephen Vogt was moved by the moment."I love these guys," Vogt said, fighting through tears. "They're so much fun to watch. They love each other. They work hard. That was an emotional night. And to see two teammates come together like that, that's powerful."It was notable because Manzardo is likely the future at first base for the club. Naylor is a free agent after next season, and the Guardians typically don't pay free agents. Yet there was Naylor supporting his potential replacement.The Guardians care about culture. They hired Vogt in part because he blended experience as a player with an appreciation of analytics, but also because he had a sense of humor. That trait was cited in the introductory press conference. That's a characteristic the club valued in longtime manager Terry Francona, who stepped down after last season.Baseball is a grind. The coaches and players spend a lot of time around each other. The Guardians value humor as a way to make showing up at the clubhouse something players and coaches will look forward to.Culture is one big reason why the club re-signed backup catcher Austin Hedges after he played elsewhere last season, Chernoff said."We knew what he meant to our culture. We missed a lot last year," he said. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/745934/cropped_GettyImages-2173208944.jpg?ts=1727986037" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/745934/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173208944.jpg?ts=1727986037 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/745934/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173208944.jpg?ts=1727986037 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/745934/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173208944.jpg?ts=1727986037 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/745934/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173208944.jpg?ts=1727986037 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/745934/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173208944.jpg?ts=1727986037 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Even though he's a poor hitter - Hedges jokes he’s been in a career-long slump - he's a catching savant and clubhouse presence. In 2022, he took the time to record his own voice into PitchCom so <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2416761">he could send</a> personalized messages to pitchers.He's one of the few veterans on the Guardians, who featured the youngest group of position players (26.1 years) in the majors this season."It's a lot harder to build the culture when you have the youngest team," Chernoff said. "You have guys that are just looking to survive in the big leagues as they are transitioning in."So, when you can weave in someone like Josh Naylor who has that type of attitude to help a young guy develop, José Ramírez who runs the bases harder than anyone on our team, it's hard not to want to keep up with them."Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 16: Catcher Austin Hedges #27 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates with closing pitcher Emmanuel Clase #48 after the Guardians defeat the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field on September 16, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Guardians won 4-3.

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Behind the numbers: Where the Guardians found hidden value

Pete Rose's death Monday renewed the debate about whether his ban by Major League Baseball should...

Pete Rose's death Monday renewed the debate about whether his ban by Major League Baseball should be lifted.Rose, 83, signed an agreement to be placed on baseball's ineligible list in 1989 after an investigation found he gambled on Cincinnati Reds games as manager of the club. The ban meant he couldn't work in pro baseball or be associated with it. The National Baseball Hall of Fame followed MLB's lead and said he couldn't be immortalized in Cooperstown, New York. Even after signing the ban agreement, Rose wouldn't admit for another 15 years that he bet on baseball, finally acknowledging it in an autobiography. He appealed for reinstatement, but it was never granted.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Some have softened on Rose, as is sometimes the case after enough time passes.Some argue MLB's all-time hits leader belongs in the Hall. They believe the Hall's chief purpose is to serve as a museum of the game's history. Some also cite that the Hall has enshrined others whose behavior was worse than gambling. (Of course, Rose's transgressions aren't limited to placing bets; he was accused of statutory rape in 2017 and served prison time for tax evasion in 1990.)<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/527008/cropped_GettyImages-1413490168.jpg?ts=1727815440" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/527008/w220xh124_GettyImages-1413490168.jpg?ts=1727815440 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/527008/w320xh180_GettyImages-1413490168.jpg?ts=1727815440 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/527008/w640xh360_GettyImages-1413490168.jpg?ts=1727815440 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/527008/w768xh432_GettyImages-1413490168.jpg?ts=1727815440 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/527008/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1413490168.jpg?ts=1727815440 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mitchell Leff / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The newest argument in Rose's favor is tied to language.Some are using the phrase "lifetime ban" to describe baseball's punishment, saying that Rose's death should end the ban. But Rose is on baseball's "permanently ineligible" list, which has no time limit. No person on the ban list, like Shoeless Joe Jackson, has been posthumously reinstated by MLB.That precedent shouldn't change now.It's more important than ever that the game protects its on-field integrity. With the proliferation of sports betting, deterrence is as important as ever.MLB's Rule 21, which sets out the parameters of misconduct by those involved in the game, is one rule that a player, coach, or executive cannot violate. The prohibition of betting is the longest subsection. The rule is posted in plain sight in every MLB clubhouse.On one hand, leagues are embracing the advent of legalized sports gambling. Through that lens, it may seem like maintaining Rose's exile is hypocritical.But professional sports is an industry built upon the trust that the public can rest assured everyone involved is competing fairly and to the best of their ability.That trust was broken in 1919 when the Chicago White Sox were found to have thrown the World Series. As a result of that scandal and other gambling-related transgressions, baseball installed its first commissioner, Kenesaw Mountain Landis, who in 1921 created the permanently ineligible list. Landis ruled 19 men permanently ineligible, 16 of whom remain on the list, including eight Black Sox players.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492516/cropped_GettyImages-81713375.jpg?ts=1727815352" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492516/w220xh124_GettyImages-81713375.jpg?ts=1727815352 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492516/w320xh180_GettyImages-81713375.jpg?ts=1727815352 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492516/w640xh360_GettyImages-81713375.jpg?ts=1727815352 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492516/w768xh432_GettyImages-81713375.jpg?ts=1727815352 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/492516/w1080xh607_GettyImages-81713375.jpg?ts=1727815352 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">Landis (left) during the 1940 World Series Diamond Images / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Rebuilding trust after that existential crisis required deterrence with bans."The public amputation of the eight Sox was seen as the only acceptable cure," Gene Carney wrote in his book, "Burying the Black Sox."Former Phillies owner William D. Cox earned a spot on the list for betting on games in the 1940s.This spring, we learned Shohei Ohtani's interpreter made $180 million in wagers over several years, draining the bank account where Ohtani's pay was deposited.The most recent player excluded for betting on baseball was former Padres and Pirates infielder Tucupita Marcano, who joined the list earlier this year for placing 387 wagers on games in 2022 and 2023.The NFL has given several players bans varying in length from six games to one year for violating the league's betting rules. The NBA banned Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter after he was found to have participated in a scheme to bet on his player props.The Baseball Hall of Fame isn't just a museum to illuminate the game's past. It's a legacy enhancer for those who earn a spot there. It's an honor. That other bad actors are enshrined doesn't mean it should keep happening.Pete Rose's 4,256 hits can't erase that he admitted to putting the integrity of the game in question with his gambling. A strong deterrent must remain in place to guard against our weakest impulses. In the case of baseball, it's a ban that extends beyond a lifetime.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

PITTSBURGH, PA - 1977: Pete Rose of the Cincinnati Reds bats during a Major League Baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Three Rivers Stadium in 1977 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

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Pete Rose doesn't belong in the Hall. That shouldn't change

This year's postseason field is one of the most open in recent memory.   There was no 100-win tea...

This year's postseason field is one of the most open in recent memory. There was no 100-win team in the majors for the first time since 2014, after a stretch of six straight full seasons with at least three of them.The last time MLB lacked a super team, the 88-win Giants beat the 89-win Royals in seven games to win the 2014 World Series.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>This October, every team in the field owns a path to the title. So, how can your team win it all? Let's take a look at the four National League teams in the wild-card round. Monday: <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3082414" href="https://thescore.com/news/3082414">American League edition</a><figure class="article-segment--embed"><center>                         </center></figure><h3>No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers </h3>The Brewers are like the Guardians: division champions in part because of a dominant bullpen.<a href="https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/">Win Probability Added</a> (WPA) is a better measure of bullpen performance than WAR, because WPA measures the cumulative change in win expectancy during each plate appearance. Win expectancy changes based on the score, inning, number of outs, and the number of runners on base. The highest-leverage situations and biggest swings in WPA often come later in games.WPA's been calculated back to 1974 and this year's Guardians and Brewers rank first and second all time in <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=3&amp;month=0&amp;ind=1&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;stats=rel&amp;sortcol=2&amp;sortdir=default&amp;qual=1&amp;team=0%2Cts&amp;season1=1974&amp;season=2024">bullpen WPA</a>, respectively.A team with a great bullpen can overachieve on a run-differential basis because it's less likely to blow a late-game lead and more likely to help facilitate a comeback. Cleveland was 53 of 69 in save situations; Milwaukee 53 of 72.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611157/cropped_GettyImages-1689600180.jpg?ts=1727729210" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611157/w220xh124_GettyImages-1689600180.jpg?ts=1727729210 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611157/w320xh180_GettyImages-1689600180.jpg?ts=1727729210 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611157/w640xh360_GettyImages-1689600180.jpg?ts=1727729210 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611157/w768xh432_GettyImages-1689600180.jpg?ts=1727729210 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/611157/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1689600180.jpg?ts=1727729210 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Kayla Wolf / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Closer Devin Williams returned midseason from a back injury and has been dominant with his "air bender" changeup. In his absence, Trevor Megill emerged as a dominant and trusted back-end option in the first half.The Brewers have other things going for them, too.Jackson Chourio's emerging as a superstar. Rookies tend to be better in the second half of the season, and after struggling in the first half (.243 average, 88 wRC+), Chourio put up star numbers in the second (.310 average, 150 wRC+).The Brewers also have one of the game's most complete catchers in William Contreras (131 wRC+, 5.4 fWAR), and one of the better shortstops in Willy Adames (32 homers, 21 steals, 119 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR).They'll need length and excellent outings from ace Freddy Peralta to help a thin rotation and not tax the bullpen. They can surprise this fall, if they get a bit more from their rotation (25th in WAR).<h3>No. 4 San Diego Padres </h3>If the postseason's about peaking at the right time, no team's hotter than the Padres, who posted the majors' best record after the All-Star break (43-20).The Padres made big swings in trades and free-agent signings in recent years, which have largely paid off. Star talent plays up in October - there are fewer off days, more urgency, and less need for depth and rest.Deals to acquire Dylan Cease from the White Sox and Michael King from the Yankees bolstered the rotation. King, Cease, and Joe Musgrove all have sub-2.70 ERAs in the second half; this group can match up with about any rotation in the field.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738291/cropped_GettyImages-2163674027.jpg?ts=1727729087" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738291/w220xh124_GettyImages-2163674027.jpg?ts=1727729087 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738291/w320xh180_GettyImages-2163674027.jpg?ts=1727729087 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738291/w640xh360_GettyImages-2163674027.jpg?ts=1727729087 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738291/w768xh432_GettyImages-2163674027.jpg?ts=1727729087 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738291/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2163674027.jpg?ts=1727729087 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>By acquiring Luis Arráez from Miami, the Padres added a unique talent who improves the top of their lineup with his unusual contact ability. They also added reliever Tanner Scott at the deadline to strengthen the back of their bullpen.There's plenty of internally developed talent, too. Like the Brewers, the Padres also feature an emerging young star in Jackson Merrill, who had 5.3 fWAR as a 21-year-old, giving San Diego another game-changing talent to go with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts. Add in Jurickson Profar's late-career breakout season and the Padres enjoy an incredibly balanced team.World Series winners historically feature deep lineups with an average of 4.1 position players recording at least 3.0 WAR. The Padres and Brewers each have four to pace the NL wild-card round.The formula's simple for the Padres to win it all: keep doing what they're doing.<h3>No. 5 Atlanta Braves</h3>The Braves aren't the team they were a year ago, when they produced one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history only to lose in the NLDS to the Phillies. They recently announced star third baseman Austin Riley would miss the rest of season, Ronald Acuña Jr.'s been out since late May, and Spencer Strider made only two 2024 starts. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II are back from their injuries, but the Braves aren't at full strength.They're still a threat, though.Their pitching staff leads the majors in strikeout rate in the second half at 28.5%, which is more than five percentage points greater than the league average. That's a big deal because strikeouts gain importance in the postseason.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747828/cropped_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1727736965" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747828/w220xh124_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1727736965 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747828/w320xh180_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1727736965 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747828/w640xh360_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1727736965 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747828/w768xh432_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1727736965 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747828/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2175025291.jpg?ts=1727736965 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Braves are loaded with bat-missing arms from Chris Sale (assuming he rebounds from back spasms that kept him from pitching Monday) to Spencer Schwellenbach.The best way to top postseason opponents is to overpower them on the mound and at the plate, and while the Braves had a down year offensively, they still finished fifth in MLB in home runs (and third in the second half).Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, and Harris each had a 130 wRC+ or better in the second half. They still have star power at the plate and on the mound, and that combination can carry a team in October.<h3>No. 6 New York Mets</h3>The Mets are 61-35 since Grimace threw out the first pitch June 12, the best mark in baseball in that span. Coincidence or magic? We can't explain all the powers that exist in the universe.Shortstop Francisco Lindor - in a horrible slump to begin the season - has carried the team since that fateful day, and he'd be an MVP winner in a world without Shohei Ohtani. Lindor's remarkable performance Monday secured a postseason berth for the Mets:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Francisco Lindor with the most important Mets homer in recent memory. You can't make this stuff up. "M-V-P!" chants at Truist Park. (This is a real update. You're not dreaming it.) Mets 8, Braves 7, top nine. <a href="https://t.co/eoYxELqVIW">pic.twitter.com/eoYxELqVIW</a>— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/1840843033626997021?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 30, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Since June 12, the Mets are sixth in the majors in home runs. They have power up and down their lineup, often a key to navigating October.Like the Brewers, they have an elite closer in Edwin Díaz, who's getting stronger the further he's removed from the knee injury that kept him off the field in 2023. Díaz limited opponents to a .138 batting average in the second half (entering play Monday).To make a deep October push, the Mets will need more magic from starting pitchers like Sean Manaea (3.48 ERA in a strong second half), Luis Severino, and Tylor Megill.While the Mets don't boast the field's strongest team on paper, they have enough firepower to be this year's Diamondbacks and keep this remarkable run going.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Why your team can win the World Series: NL wild-card round edition

This year's postseason field is one of the most open in recent memory.  There's no 100-win team i...

This year's postseason field is one of the most open in recent memory.There's no 100-win team in the majors for the first time in a full season since 2014, after a stretch of six straight seasons in which there were at least three of them.No team reached triple-digit wins even with the White Sox offering the competition what were the equivalent of 120 free bingo squares.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The last time MLB lacked a super team, the 88-win Giants beat the 89-win Royals to win the World Series.This October, every team in the field owns a path to the title. So, how can your team win it all?We begin our postseason preview series with a look at the AL wild-card round teams. What can propel them through October?<h3>No. 3 Houston Astros</h3>While the Astros are still in a gentle descent from their mini-dynasty peak that included two World Series titles - one tainted, one fully legit - they remain a formidable team.While they fell short of a bye, if one believes in <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2736059" href="https://thescore.com/news/2736059">rust factor </a>for teams bypassing the play-in round, this isn't such a poor outcome for perhaps the playoffs' best non-bye team. (All three 100-win teams with byes lost in the Division Series last year.)<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740784/cropped_GettyImages-2165881362.jpg?ts=1727470434" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740784/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165881362.jpg?ts=1727470434 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740784/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165881362.jpg?ts=1727470434 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740784/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165881362.jpg?ts=1727470434 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740784/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165881362.jpg?ts=1727470434 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740784/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165881362.jpg?ts=1727470434 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Winslow Townson / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Astros' great advantage: they have one of the deepest lineups in the field - and the deepest in the AL.While the Yankees enjoy two superstars, the Astros <a href="https://stathead.com/baseball/player-batting-season-finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=team_player_season_count&amp;year_min=2024&amp;year_max=2024&amp;ccomp%5B1%5D=gt&amp;cval%5B1%5D=3&amp;cstat%5B1%5D=b_war">feature six</a> position players who accumulated at least 3 WAR, including nearly 5 WAR from Kyle Tucker, who missed half the season with a shin fracture. Tucker's showing no signs of rust, hitting .340 with four homers in September entering play Friday.Only the Dodgers (seven) have more such contributors in the playoff field.Historically, World Series winners typically feature deep lineups with an average of 4.1 position players recording at least 3 WAR. The Astros check that box. They can wear down opponents.Houston will have to overcome some suspect middle relievers, but its rotation is in much better position after struggling early this season. Astros starters had MLB's seventh-worst ERA at 4.53 through June 19, but enjoy the fourth-best starting pitching ERA (3.36) and WAR (8.0) and in the second half.Yusei Kikuchi is throwing as well as he ever has since coming over from Toronto and ought to receive a starting assignment in a rotation led by Framber Valdez.It's an important October for these Astros. With an eroded farm system, front office brain drain, and the eventual loss of some on-field talent (Alex Bregman's a free agent after this season, Kyle Tucker after next), this group may not have many more postseason runs together. But right now, the Astros are as dangerous as any non-bye team in the field.<h3>No. 4 Baltimore Orioles</h3>The Orioles limp into the playoffs after an exceptional start to the season.They had a losing record in the second half, which cost them their grip on top of the AL East.A few weeks ago, they jettisoned closer Craig Kimbrel, their most expensive free-agent acquisition of the offseason. Catcher Adley Rutschman, one of the faces of the franchise, is in a dreadful slump, batting .202 with three home runs in the second half. The issue perhaps stems from a midseason hand injury, which coincides with declining bat speed.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744608/cropped_GettyImages-2169756890.jpg?ts=1727470465" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744608/w220xh124_GettyImages-2169756890.jpg?ts=1727470465 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744608/w320xh180_GettyImages-2169756890.jpg?ts=1727470465 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744608/w640xh360_GettyImages-2169756890.jpg?ts=1727470465 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744608/w768xh432_GettyImages-2169756890.jpg?ts=1727470465 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744608/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2169756890.jpg?ts=1727470465 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Dustin Bradford / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Moreover, ace Corbin Burnes owns a 3.69 ERA in the second half after posting a 2.43 mark in the first half. The Orioles traded for Burnes to be a difference-maker, not merely good. His strikeout rate is in decline for a fourth straight season and his cutter's lost horizontal bite. One big key is whether Burnes can get back to being his best.It's also possible they made too many changes at the trade deadline. Not only did one big addition fall flat (lefty pitcher Trevor Rogers struggled and was subsequently sent to the minors), the volume of change might have upset clubhouse chemistry.Other than that, everything seems great, right? The good news: Baltimore still has a seat at the wide-open postseason table.If Burnes and Zach Eflin can pitch more like their 2023 selves, that would provide a big boost. And their lineup may be getting strong at the right time.First-half breakout star Jordan Westburg just returned from the IL, a big lift for the club. Cedric Mullins, mired in a first-half slump, is starting to hit. Former No. 2 overall draft pick Heston Kjerstad finally found his way into a platoon role and owns an impact bat. Colton Cowser is warming again. All of a sudden, the lineup appears much deeper - especially against right-handed opponents.This is still a young team on the ascent, despite the late summer turbulence.Baseball's a sport of peaks and lulls, and if the Orioles are coming out of a lull - if some of the supporting actors are getting hot at the right time around young superstar Gunnar Henderson - they can reach and win the World Series.<h3>No. 5 Kansas City Royals</h3>In another year, Bobby Witt Jr. would be an overwhelming MVP candidate. The breakout superstar's five tools impact a game in so many ways. Star power matters more in the postseason, too. There are fewer off days and less need to rest regulars. The best players play. If Witt Jr.'s at his best on the biggest stage, few other players in the field can match his production.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740196/cropped_GettyImages-2165777009.jpg?ts=1723229988" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740196/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165777009.jpg?ts=1723229988 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740196/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165777009.jpg?ts=1723229988 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740196/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165777009.jpg?ts=1723229988 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740196/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165777009.jpg?ts=1723229988 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740196/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165777009.jpg?ts=1723229988 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Ed Zurga / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>But the Royals' greatest edge this year is their rotation.Cole Ragans emerged as perhaps the second-best lefty in the AL after Skubal, and free-agent signings Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha stabilized what was a shaky rotation with 370 quality innings. They all rank in the top 10 among qualified ERA leaders. They produced quality volume all year and can be relied upon even more in the postseason.They needed those innings to avoid a suspect bullpen, but closer Lucas Erceg, acquired at the trade deadline, was a considerable upgrade for the back end.The Royals can win an arms race, which means they can win it all.<h3>No. 6 Detroit Tigers</h3>The Tigers held 0.5% playoff chances on Aug. 1, according to FanGraphs' odds. That rocketed to 81% on Sept. 25, and reached 100% Friday. (Javier Baez hasn't played since Aug. 22, when the surge began, which perhaps isn't a coincidence, a form of addition by subtraction.)The greatest advantage the Tigers enjoy over the rest of field is the left arm of Tarik Skubal, perhaps the game's best pitcher.Remember: true aces become even more valuable in October. The best arms take on an even greater share of innings because of added off days and urgency.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637565/cropped_GettyImages-2160656864.jpg?ts=1727470500" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637565/w220xh124_GettyImages-2160656864.jpg?ts=1727470500 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637565/w320xh180_GettyImages-2160656864.jpg?ts=1727470500 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637565/w640xh360_GettyImages-2160656864.jpg?ts=1727470500 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637565/w768xh432_GettyImages-2160656864.jpg?ts=1727470500 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637565/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2160656864.jpg?ts=1727470500 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Consider the case of the 92-win Diamondbacks in 2001, who took full advantage of the playoffs' different nature. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling combined for 34.6% of Arizona's regular-season innings that year but 58.2% of its postseason innings. The D-Backs played a different game in October en route to winning the World Series.More recently, when the Phillies made a surprising run to the World Series in 2022, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to throw 40.9% of postseason innings after tossing 25.1% of their regular-season innings.While Skubal may not be peak Randy Johnson, he's still a cheat code. With Skubal and other breakout arms like Tyler Holton, the Tigers posted the best second-half ERA (3.06) in the game. The league average is 4.11.Detroit has the arms to play deep into October.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Why your team can win the World Series: AL wild-card round edition

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