The lack of interest in Pete Alonso during the offseason was fascinating.  FanGraphs' crowd-sourc...

The lack of interest in Pete Alonso during the offseason was fascinating.FanGraphs' crowd-source estimate believed Alonso would receive a five-year, $125-million deal in free agency. MLB Trade Rumors predicted the same. FanGraphs' Ben Clemens, meanwhile, forecast a seven-year, $140-million pact.Alonso turned 30 in December, and history suggests he's getting closer to his decline. That no doubt cooled his market, and he also plays a position (first base) for which the league is no longer interested in paying top dollar.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Still, it seemed like he was in line for a nine-figure deal. This was a player who averaged 39 homers, 108 RBIs, and a 131 wRC+ in his previous four seasons.A generation ago, such a profile would be prized, but teams now take into account aging curves and defensive contributions to a much greater extent.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/767175/cropped_GettyImages-2178067349.jpg?ts=1746636076" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/767175/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178067349.jpg?ts=1746636076 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/767175/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178067349.jpg?ts=1746636076 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/767175/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178067349.jpg?ts=1746636076 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/767175/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178067349.jpg?ts=1746636076 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/767175/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178067349.jpg?ts=1746636076 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rob Tringali / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The lack of interest - despite Alonso's desire to stay in New York - was stunning, and the two-year, $54-million deal he eventually got to re-sign with the Mets was one of the greatest public forecast misses in recent years.But while the market didn't value Alonso as a difference-maker, it's clear six weeks into the season that the market was wrong.As of Tuesday, Alonso led the National League in hits (45), doubles (13), average (.341), on-base percentage (.463) and slugging percentage (.659). If he can stay healthy and avoid a massive slump, he's in line to produce a career year.He's already produced $19.3 million in <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pete-alonso/19251/stats?position=1B#value">performance value</a> based on FanGraphs' formula. Just 20% of the way through the season, and he's well on his way to making the first year of his deal ($30 million) a massive bargain. There's little doubt he will opt out of the $24-million second year and renew his search for a nine-figure deal.Will the market continue to bet against him and players like him?One can argue teams place too much value on positional versatility and that there is too much groupthink. Whether a player can play all four infield positions is not going to matter when a club is down two runs in an elimination game in October. Power matters.Not only does power matter in changing game outcomes - the 16-19 Blue Jays, for example, have an MLB-worst differential in home runs this year, hitting 25 while allowing 51 through Tuesday - it especially matters in the postseason, when there are more strikeouts, fewer balls in play, and home runs account for a bigger percentage of run scoring.It's also possible teams discounted his age too much. Alonso is not yet an ancient player. Albert Pujols, for instance, was two years older when he signed with the Los Angeles Angels, and Pujols didn't totally fall apart until age 36.Consider this contrast:<ul>
<li>Player A: age 30, career 132 wRC+, 17.4 career fWAR</li>
<li>Player B: age 26, career 137 wRC+, 16.8 career fWAR,</li>
</ul>Player A is Alonso; Player B is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who signed a 14-year, $500-million deal a few months after Alonso signed.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771232/cropped_GettyImages-2171273560.jpg?ts=1746565253" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771232/w220xh124_GettyImages-2171273560.jpg?ts=1746565253 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771232/w320xh180_GettyImages-2171273560.jpg?ts=1746565253 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771232/w640xh360_GettyImages-2171273560.jpg?ts=1746565253 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771232/w768xh432_GettyImages-2171273560.jpg?ts=1746565253 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771232/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2171273560.jpg?ts=1746565253 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brandon Sloter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Are Guerrero's four years of youth really worth nine times the guaranteed money?One can argue a five-year investment in Alonso would have been a far safer choice for a club; such a deal would have expired after his age-34 season.Assuming Alonso opts out of his 2026 player option, teams will have another chance to assess their thinking.Will they double down on a preference for other positions and versatility? Or will there be a greater appreciation for how a slugging first baseman can change a game with one swing?One can argue that a quality first baseman is now undervalued. Alonso's 132 wRC+ is part of a cohort producing the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;ind=0&amp;rost=&amp;age=&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;team=0%2Css&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;month=0&amp;pos=1b&amp;sortcol=17&amp;sortdir=asc&amp;season1=1901&amp;season=2025">fourth-worst wRC+</a> mark (99) since 1901.One thing is for sure - the market got it wrong about Alonso in the short term, and the game's richest owner is enjoying one of the game's greatest bargains.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31226842/related

Pete Alonso is leaving 29 teams with regrets

TAMPA, Fla. - The device looks like something you'd wear as part of a Wolverine costume for Hallo...

TAMPA, Fla. - The device looks like something you'd wear as part of a Wolverine costume for Halloween.I slipped on the FlexPro Grip, which enveloped my right hand. A black box sits on the back, with five rods extending outward, complemented by adjustable straps to secure it to a pitcher's hand and wrist, along with grips for each finger.I visited a new Driveline Baseball training facility in March to learn about this new technology in a place that experiments with everything. Phillies minor-league pitcher Josh Hejka was my guide.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Inside this high-tech warehouse, Hejka instructed me to place each finger into separate compartments within the device. These compartments can adjust to isolate various segments and joints of the fingers: the tips, mid-finger, and proximal joints. Each grip slot is connected to the Wolverine-like rods, which are tied to sensors in the device.Few possess the skills to pitch in professional baseball while working as a part-time researcher at Driveline, but the 28-year-old Hejka is one of them. He graduated with a degree in computer science from Johns Hopkins University, compiling skills that allow him to answer his pitching-related questions through data collection and coding.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783572/cropped_IMG_5190.jpg?ts=1746135615" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783572/w220xh124_IMG_5190.jpg?ts=1746135615 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783572/w320xh180_IMG_5190.jpg?ts=1746135615 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783572/w640xh360_IMG_5190.jpg?ts=1746135615 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783572/w768xh432_IMG_5190.jpg?ts=1746135615 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783572/w1080xh607_IMG_5190.jpg?ts=1746135615 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Travis Sawchik / theScore</figcaption></figure>Hejka is interested in helping tame the sport's injury scourge, a quest that will continue whether he makes it to the majors as a submarine-style pitcher or not. He believes the device fixed to my right hand might be part of the solution.Hejka was introduced to the new technology while rehabbing at Driveline after Tommy John surgery in 2023.There remains something of a defeatist attitude around injury prevention. Many accept today's high rate of pitching injuries as inevitable, a natural consequence of the stress placed on arms. But Hejka believes the industry lacks understanding - and hasn't done nearly enough exploration or innovation - to be so certain.He doesn't even believe the industry is looking in the right place."There's not enough of a discussion of what is actually happening in the arm," Hejka said, "and what can be done."I hear this sentiment more often, most recently from the Pirates' <a href="https://thescore.com/news/3241366">Paul Skenes</a> and Atlanta's <a href="https://thescore.com/news/3264446">Spencer Strider</a>. A growing number of pitchers are no longer satisfied with the old beliefs and want to find new solutions to why arms break down.To understand the FlexPro Grip's aim, Hejka explained how the tendons of fingers connect to the forearm muscles. We're testing the mid-finger since it's "more specific to stabilizing the (elbow) joint," he said.Similarly, strengthening the fingertips has the potential to increase spin rate, Hejka added.He monitored the screen of his smartphone. When the app synced to the device around my hand, he instructed me to squeeze.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783571/cropped_IMG_5180.jpg?ts=1746135685" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783571/w220xh124_IMG_5180.jpg?ts=1746135685 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783571/w320xh180_IMG_5180.jpg?ts=1746135685 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783571/w640xh360_IMG_5180.jpg?ts=1746135685 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783571/w768xh432_IMG_5180.jpg?ts=1746135685 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783571/w1080xh607_IMG_5180.jpg?ts=1746135685 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Travis Sawchik / theScore</figcaption></figure>The FlexPro Grip supports different training regimes: some focused on speed, some on endurance. This was a max-effort test: How hard could I squeeze?I immediately learned how difficult it was to gauge the amount of flexion force I was generating - the force needed by muscles to contract a joint. It felt like trying to squeeze against a hydraulic press."You can tell other training doesn't hit these muscles because you do it once, and you're like ... " Hejka said.Driveline pitching coordinator Matthew Kress said of his first experience: "I felt a burning sensation, 'Holy ... .' It's a muscle (contraction) you have never felt before."Hejka looked at my numbers on his phone. "He's pulling more than me," Hejka said. "He got like 170 in his mid-finger.""A rock climber," an actual athlete nearby joked.What did the FlexPro score mean? "You are prepared to throw 80 (mph)," Hejka said.My grip strength pleasantly surprised me, especially since my top-recorded fastball was a meager 62 mph."Maybe the calibration was off," I suggested."Too humble," Hejka said.The app estimates a safe velocity range for pitchers using its scoring system based on the player's grip strength. Data collected by the FlexPro team has found that a 90th-percentile grip should result in a 90th-percentile fastball velocity. If grip strength is below throwing velocity, say 50th-percentile grip strength and 90th-percentile velocity, that suggests a pitcher is at risk for injury.The device is telling me that I should be safe to unleash a max-effort throw.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><center>––––––––––</center></figure>One way of attacking a problem is to consider what cannot change. What are the limits of physics and human biology?<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783972/cropped_GettyImages-477276830.jpg?ts=1746365257" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783972/w220xh124_GettyImages-477276830.jpg?ts=1746365257 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783972/w320xh180_GettyImages-477276830.jpg?ts=1746365257 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783972/w640xh360_GettyImages-477276830.jpg?ts=1746365257 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783972/w768xh432_GettyImages-477276830.jpg?ts=1746365257 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783972/w1080xh607_GettyImages-477276830.jpg?ts=1746365257 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Matt Brown / Getty Images Sport / Getty</figcaption></figure>In the case of the sport's Tommy John epidemic, there's nothing that can be done to strengthen the ulnar collateral ligament.The tiny triangular band of tissue measures about 25 mm in length and 5 mm in width, yet it plays a key role in stabilizing the pitching elbow.The UCL connects to the upper and lower bones in the arm and is consistent in size across all pitchers, regardless of their height or weight.The issue plaguing pitchers is that the ligament can't always handle the immense stress it's subjected to.Dr. Christopher Ahmad, a Columbia University professor and orthopedic surgeon in New York, <a href="https://www.drahmadsportsmedicine.com/small-mighty-understanding-role-fragility-ucl/#:~:text=Size:%20The%20UCL%20is%20no,up%20to%2050%20newton%2Dmeters">wrote last year</a> that the UCL can withstand a torque force of 32 Newton-meters. The problem? Pitchers routinely produce a torque exceeding 60 Newton-meters on the ligament.Without support from the surrounding arm structures, the ligament would fail.The UCL is considered a passive stabilizer. It provides support and fights hyperextension, but it can't change. It cannot strengthen, flex, or alter itself. It's like a door hinge.In contrast, the UCL is assisted by what are known as dynamic stabilizers: muscles. Muscles can contract, adapt, and - a key point - strengthen.Since the UCL can't be strengthened, the creators of FlexPro Grip, Hejka, and others at Driveline have turned their attention to what is around the ligament.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783570/cropped_IMG_5197.jpg?ts=1746135654" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783570/w220xh124_IMG_5197.jpg?ts=1746135654 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783570/w320xh180_IMG_5197.jpg?ts=1746135654 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783570/w640xh360_IMG_5197.jpg?ts=1746135654 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783570/w768xh432_IMG_5197.jpg?ts=1746135654 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783570/w1080xh607_IMG_5197.jpg?ts=1746135654 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Travis Sawchik / theScore</figcaption></figure>Initially, the FlexPro Grip was used as a part of Driveline's rehab protocols after surgery, but Kress wondered if it could also serve a preventative role.Hejka and Kress are interested in a specific group of muscles and their connective tissues. The forearm contains eight flexor muscles, and the FlexPro Grip targets three of them. One muscle of particular interest is the flexor digitorum superficialis, as it's often tied to elbow injuries. This long muscle runs the length of the forearm and is connected to the index, middle, ring, and small fingers.Grip exercises have been around for years, and Hejka had used them. But what had been missing was technology capable of isolating the flexor muscle groups, strengthening them in training, and quantifying progress.That's where FlexPro Grip comes in, a device launched in 2021 by a New Orleans-based company co-founded by CEO Daryl Moreau.Hejka saw the magic firsthand. "The first time I did it ever, it was around 120," Hejka said of his score. "Now, I am pulling over 210 - that's with fingertips. With my mid-finger, I have gone from 100 to 190. So, it's massive."In its December <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3161794" href="https://thescore.com/news/3161794">report on pitching injuries</a>, Major League Baseball concluded that reducing injury rates may require incentives to lower pitch velocity.But Hejka agrees with players like Skenes and Strider: pitchers will never pursue lower skill levels just to stay healthy."The question should not be, 'How do we de-incentivize velocity, disincentivize performance because the individual incentives will never change," Hejka said. "It's always to my advantage to throw harder, to try and reach the major leagues. And if I get hurt after a month (in the majors), that's better than me not being good enough to even make the major leagues."The question should be, 'How do we incentivize proper preparation of the arm to handle stress?' We would never tell Usain Bolt, 'Hey, running that fast places a lot of stress on your hamstring.' No, we would say, 'How do we train Usain Bolt to make sure he can make his top speeds safely?' And that's where the track and field world is so far ahead of MLB."While much research has gone into identifying the causes of injuries in baseball, far less attention has been given to rethinking how to prevent them. Kress said it was frustrating that MLB's injury study didn't mention the role of flexor muscles.Yet, Driveline is viewed by many as playing a role in the injury scourge because of the velocity-building programs that put it on the map.However, Kress said injury prevention is a major priority within Driveline, hence the company's efforts with Pulse, a wearable tracking device, and experimentation with products like FlexPro Grip."If you've read any Driveline blog, we know the harder you throw, the more stress you are going to place on your elbow," Kress said. "That's an inevitability you cannot change. It's about how you prepare yourself for that stress."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781878/cropped_GettyImages-2210237517.jpg?ts=1745421057" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781878/w220xh124_GettyImages-2210237517.jpg?ts=1745421057 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781878/w320xh180_GettyImages-2210237517.jpg?ts=1745421057 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781878/w640xh360_GettyImages-2210237517.jpg?ts=1745421057 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781878/w768xh432_GettyImages-2210237517.jpg?ts=1745421057 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781878/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2210237517.jpg?ts=1745421057 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Kevin D. Liles / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Strider is one major leaguer using Driveline's Pulse and believes that improving player health should and will be the focus of much more attention."I don't think it is the way it has to be, or is going to be, " Strider <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3264446" href="https://thescore.com/news/3264446">told theScore</a> of today's injury rates. "I think different parts of the baseball industry have moved at different speeds and evolved at different speeds."The Phillies have half a dozen FlexPro units at their minor-league complex in Clearwater, though there's no mandatory training regimen. The Padres have also experimented with the device.Hejka believes there should be much more investment. "I am not worried at all about injury," Hejka said. "Who knows? Maybe it could happen. But it's not something I can control. I can pitch with a clear mind knowing I am as prepared as I can be."Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31188349/related

The superhero-like glove that just might save the elbow

Starting Lineup is a collection of reporting, observations, and insights from the baseball beat. ...

Starting Lineup is a collection of reporting, observations, and insights from the baseball beat.<h3>Leading off ...</h3>Entering the season, the Baltimore Orioles appeared to be on the same path the Houston Astros traveled last decade.The Astros rocketed from incredible depths, going from "Disastros" to mini dynasty, albeit with a tainted 2017 World Series title.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Orioles GM Mike Elias was a key lieutenant with those Astros and brought many of their scouting and player development practices to Baltimore. It helped transform the Orioles from laughingstock - losers of 100-plus games in three of four years from 2018-21 - to AL East champs in 2023, with another playoff trip made last year.With top draft picks Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman arriving as foundational players, and Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, and Jordan Westburg perhaps being others, the club looked to be entering its first period of steady contention since the 1990s.But the Orioles have hit a speed bump, and it was an obvious one they failed to navigate: they needed impact pitching last offseason and didn't acquire it.The void left by Corbin Burnes is glaring. Their pitching need is exacerbated by last year's trade deadline: the Trevor Rogers acquisition immediately turned sour, and Zach Eflin, a quality arm, landed on the injured list early this season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/600873/cropped_GettyImages-1480866320.jpg?ts=1746209439" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/600873/w220xh124_GettyImages-1480866320.jpg?ts=1746209439 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/600873/w320xh180_GettyImages-1480866320.jpg?ts=1746209439 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/600873/w640xh360_GettyImages-1480866320.jpg?ts=1746209439 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/600873/w768xh432_GettyImages-1480866320.jpg?ts=1746209439 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/600873/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1480866320.jpg?ts=1746209439 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rob Carr / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Only the Marlins and Rockies own worse starting pitching ERA marks than the Orioles (6.04) entering play Friday, and only the Marlins have a worse staff ERA than Baltimore (5.47) overall. The performance isn't just a small sample of poor fortune, either, as Baltimore ranks 27th in K-BB% (9.1%) and 25th in Stuff+ for starting pitchers.The pitching issues are compounded by the fact Camden Yards' left-field wall was moved in to quiet complaining hitters.While Baltimore's been dealt a major injury setback with Grayson Rodriguez again on the IL, the organization hasn't developed another potential impact pitcher. There appears to be little internal help on the horizon. The O's have only two prospects in Baseball America's top 100 and they're position players.The Orioles don't have a massive budget to work with but they aren't in a Pirates-like situation, either. Baltimore entered the season ranked 15th in payroll and spent $101 million on free agents in the offseason.How that money was spent can be questioned. Their greatest investment in a starting pitcher was Charlie Morton's one-year, $15-million deal. Morton, 41, struggled so badly early this season he was moved to the bullpen.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779007/cropped_GettyImages-2208332755.jpg?ts=1746209470" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779007/w220xh124_GettyImages-2208332755.jpg?ts=1746209470 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779007/w320xh180_GettyImages-2208332755.jpg?ts=1746209470 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779007/w640xh360_GettyImages-2208332755.jpg?ts=1746209470 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779007/w768xh432_GettyImages-2208332755.jpg?ts=1746209470 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779007/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2208332755.jpg?ts=1746209470 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Kevin Sousa / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The club signed a second starting arm in Tomoyuki Sugano, a high floor, low ceiling strike thrower who inked a one-year pact worth $13 million. But Sugano isn't missing bats, and is due for negative regression - he has a 5.66 expected ERA compared to his actual 3.00 mark.Contenders are better served by targeting quality arms over a quantity of lower-floor arms. There were better options available.For example, the Orioles were among the clubs too concerned with Nick Pivetta being tied to draft-pick compensation. A better use of the funds they allocated to signing oft-injured outfielder Tyler O'Neill (three years, $49.5 million) would have been something like the three-year, $55-million deal the Padres gave Pivetta.The Orioles perhaps ought to have pushed for Garrett Crochet, who instead landed with the division-rival Red Sox.In short: Baltimore can't rely exclusively on hoping for internal pitching improvement if the club is to save its season. While some positive regression can be expected, the O's don't have the arms to get out of the AL East basement - forget about the World Series. They need external help.The Orioles' front office has done a great job rebuilding the club, but windows of opportunity can close quickly. Urgency's required.<h3>No. 2: Jays' big problem remains</h3>Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s excellent pitch recognition and pitch anticipation Thursday resulted in his smashing a Justin Slaten curveball that broke below the zone over the left-center wall for a game-winning, three-run homer.Few MLB hitters can execute such a swing. The Jays need more of that. A lot more of that.If wanting to boil down winning and losing to one variable, one could do worse than simply focusing on home runs. Teams that hit more home runs than their opponents enjoy an enormous advantage. That's a big problem for the Blue Jays, who are -23 in net homers through their first 30 games, the worst differential in MLB.They've hit the second-fewest home runs (21) while allowing the most (44).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/782863/cropped_GettyImages-2211351344.jpg?ts=1746209248" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/782863/w220xh124_GettyImages-2211351344.jpg?ts=1746209248 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/782863/w320xh180_GettyImages-2211351344.jpg?ts=1746209248 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/782863/w640xh360_GettyImages-2211351344.jpg?ts=1746209248 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/782863/w768xh432_GettyImages-2211351344.jpg?ts=1746209248 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/782863/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2211351344.jpg?ts=1746209248 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Daniel Shirey / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The club's big external addition Anthony Santander is off to a slow start, but he should round into perform given his consistent history. What Toronto needs most is internal improvement.It needs Vlad Jr. to mash like a $500-million player. It needs Daulton Varsho and Andrés Giménez to provide more than an elite gloves. And more than anything, the Jays need Bo Bichette to return to the swing he had this spring when he was pulling more batted balls, hitting four homers in Florida. They need Bichette to return to the player he was from 2021-23 when he averaged 24.3 homers per season. He's hit four total home runs since the start of last season.The Blue Jays need an immediate power reboot, otherwise they're looking at another lost season.<h3>No. 3: Judge is Bondsian</h3>A wild fact: Aaron Judge has reached base on more occasions than he's recorded an out this season.He leads the majors with a .427 batting average entering play Friday, 71 points better than the next qualified hitter.His 262 wRC+, if it stood, would be the best full-season mark ever. While that's unlikely, he could post his third 200 wRC+ season. Only Barry Bonds (four) has produced <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;type=8&amp;month=0&amp;ind=1&amp;rost=&amp;age=&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=1950&amp;season=2025&amp;sortcol=18&amp;sortdir=default&amp;team=0&amp;qual=y">more than three since</a> 1950.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781985/cropped_GettyImages-2210586573.jpg?ts=1746209306" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781985/w220xh124_GettyImages-2210586573.jpg?ts=1746209306 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781985/w320xh180_GettyImages-2210586573.jpg?ts=1746209306 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781985/w640xh360_GettyImages-2210586573.jpg?ts=1746209306 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781985/w768xh432_GettyImages-2210586573.jpg?ts=1746209306 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781985/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2210586573.jpg?ts=1746209306 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> New York Yankees / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Judge's nine-year, $360-million pact is a relative steal.He's already accumulated 3.2 fWAR, putting him on pace for 16.7 fWAR. Babe Ruth's 14.7 fWAR mark in 1923 is the best all time. The Babe, of course, wasn't aware of his feat.<h3>No. 4: Bubba's ready</h3>Pirates pitching prospect Bubba Chandler repeatedly came up as one of the most electric arms observed when I spoke with scouts this spring in Florida.The 2022 third-rounder is dominating Triple-A, where he ended his start Thursday with a 99 mph fastball - his 71st pitch - for a swinging strike and his ninth strikeout in five innings. He owns a 32% K-BB rate in 25 Triple-A innings.Last year, Paul Skenes posted a 35% K-BB rate in 28 Triple-A innings before getting the call.Bubba's ready.<h3>No. 5: Embattled middle class</h3>While there's so much focus - rightfully so - on the lack of spending by clubs like the Pirates, one club executive told me that teams actually feeling the squeeze are what he described as "mid-market" clubs with elevated payrolls, particularly like the Padres, who have the No. 5 40-man payroll. The Padres are one of the clubs that lost a lucrative TV deal ($1.2 billion guaranteed over 20 years) due to the regional sports network collapse.The next CBA negotiation is going to be ugly.<h3>No. 6: No end in sight for Rockies' misery</h3>The Rockies avoided tying the worst 30-game start in MLB history by beating the Braves on Wednesday, but it's little consolation.As an overall organization, Rockies are even further behind than the White Sox. The Rockies are the laggards in scouting, analytics, and player development.The last time Colorado had greater than 1% playoff chances as of April 18 in a full season was in 2019.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781112/cropped_GettyImages-2207882017.jpg?ts=1746209339" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781112/w220xh124_GettyImages-2207882017.jpg?ts=1746209339 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781112/w320xh180_GettyImages-2207882017.jpg?ts=1746209339 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781112/w640xh360_GettyImages-2207882017.jpg?ts=1746209339 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781112/w768xh432_GettyImages-2207882017.jpg?ts=1746209339 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781112/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2207882017.jpg?ts=1746209339 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin Edmonds / Getty Images</figcaption></figure><h3>No. 7: (Returning) aces wild</h3>It's been an uneven start to the year for three talented arms returning from second major elbow injuries.Shane McClanahan was hitting 99 mph in camp but dealt with a nerve irritation setback (left triceps), while Spencer Strider made only one start before suffering a Grade 1 hamstring strain.Some good news: Jacob deGrom's beginning to look more like vintage deGrom. In his last start against the A's, deGrom enjoyed his trademark uncanny command of his slider. He reached 100 mph for the first time this season with his fastball even though he said he wanted to dial down velocity this year.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783252/cropped_GettyImages-2212098364.jpg?ts=1746209364" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783252/w220xh124_GettyImages-2212098364.jpg?ts=1746209364 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783252/w320xh180_GettyImages-2212098364.jpg?ts=1746209364 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783252/w640xh360_GettyImages-2212098364.jpg?ts=1746209364 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783252/w768xh432_GettyImages-2212098364.jpg?ts=1746209364 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/783252/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2212098364.jpg?ts=1746209364 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Ron Jenkins / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>All three arms had procedures <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3264446" href="https://thescore.com/news/3264446">involving an InternalBrace</a>. Their seasons are key in providing hope to arms that undergo two major surgeries. The track record to date isn't good.<h3>No. 8: Chandler Simpson isn't Billy Hamilton</h3>Hamilton failed to have a lengthy career because his strikeout rate was too elevated (22%) for a player with zero power, leading to a career .292 on-base percentage.Tampa Bay rookie Chandler Simpson has often drawn Hamilton comps due to his speed and light power. But Simpson's strikeout rate to date is 12.8%, well below the MLB average.Out of 1,140 qualified batters across affiliated minor-league baseball last year, Simpson had the 13th-best strikeout rate (8.5%).Simpson can hit. Well, he can at least avoid strikeouts. And that suggests he can support a .290-plus batting average.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772622/cropped_GettyImages-2186584073.jpg?ts=1740768974" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772622/w220xh124_GettyImages-2186584073.jpg?ts=1740768974 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772622/w320xh180_GettyImages-2186584073.jpg?ts=1740768974 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772622/w640xh360_GettyImages-2186584073.jpg?ts=1740768974 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772622/w768xh432_GettyImages-2186584073.jpg?ts=1740768974 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772622/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2186584073.jpg?ts=1740768974 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Shi Tang / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yes, his two hits Thursday weren't pretty. They totaled two feet in distance before touching ground, but choppers work for the fastest man in baseball (his 3.69-second 90-foot sprint speed split is tops in MLB).<h3>No. 9: No more double jeopardy</h3>If you feel like you're seeing fewer double plays, you're not wrong.FanGraphs' Leo Morgenstern <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-correa-is-keeping-the-gidp-alive/">noted</a> batters are grounding into double plays at their lowest rate since 1939. There are more strikeouts and more fly balls as more batters try to elevate the baseball. Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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What O's, Jays must do to save their seasons. And 7 other observations

Is there a weak spot in baseball's Death Star?  No one in Los Angeles is exactly panicking over t...

Is there a weak spot in baseball's Death Star?No one in Los Angeles is exactly panicking over the Dodgers' start. After 21 games, they're on pace to win 115 and are still the best team on paper.But they were in third place in the NL West earlier this week, which was not something many envisioned even this early in the season. It's a testament to the strength of the NL West.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Recall, the Padres nearly knocked the Dodgers out of the postseason last year, and they sat in first place entering the weekend. The resurgent Giants are in the top three in run differential. The Diamondbacks were in fourth place in the division entering the weekend, but would be in first in three other divisions.The Dodgers will almost certainly make the playoffs, but winning the division and advancing to the World Series might not be so easy.Their division odds dropped from 83.8% in the preseason to 74.6% entering the weekend, according to FanGraphs. Their chances to win a World Series dropped from 23.2% in preseason to 21.2% entering play Friday.And they have one glaring weakness working against their aspirations of not just building a dynasty but earning a playoff bye and an easier path to a title this season: They're the oldest team in baseball, by far, on the position player side at 31.3 years. The MLB average is 28.3.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778968/cropped_GettyImages-2208574183.jpg?ts=1744849070" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778968/w220xh124_GettyImages-2208574183.jpg?ts=1744849070 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778968/w320xh180_GettyImages-2208574183.jpg?ts=1744849070 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778968/w640xh360_GettyImages-2208574183.jpg?ts=1744849070 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778968/w768xh432_GettyImages-2208574183.jpg?ts=1744849070 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778968/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2208574183.jpg?ts=1744849070 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Emilee Chinn / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Freddie Freeman is 35 and still dealing with a balky ankle following offseason surgery. Max Muncy at 34 is showing some decline with a strikeout rate above 35%.Mookie Betts is such an exceptional athlete that he might fend off Father Time for longer than most, but his age (32) is when we typically begin to see skills degrade. Injury risk also increases for older players.For as much credit as the Dodgers receive for being a player development machine, they have only two homegrown players in their lineup: catcher Will Smith (now 30) and outfielder Andy Pages, an uneven performer to date. Most of their stars were acquired through free agency or trade.The Dodgers have led the majors in days lost to injury in each of the last two seasons, mostly coming from the pitching side. Star free-agent acquisition Blake Snell is already on the IL this season.They are still the most talented team, but they're an aging one with severe injury risk in the rotation.The NL West might be a little more interesting than many thought.<h3>MLB's new data, and what it tells us about Tork</h3>Last year, MLB unveiled new data to the public from its Statcast tracking system: bat speed and swing length metrics.While the data revelations might be becoming more granular, MLB keeps delivering new numbers to quantify players' traits and skills.New this year is a visualization tool for a batter's positioning in the box: how deep they stand, how close to the plate they are, and how open or closed their stances are.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781229/cropped_GettyImages-2209888647.jpg?ts=1745005578" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781229/w220xh124_GettyImages-2209888647.jpg?ts=1745005578 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781229/w320xh180_GettyImages-2209888647.jpg?ts=1745005578 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781229/w640xh360_GettyImages-2209888647.jpg?ts=1745005578 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781229/w768xh432_GettyImages-2209888647.jpg?ts=1745005578 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781229/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2209888647.jpg?ts=1745005578 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Aaron Gash / MLB / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There are interesting insights, particularly for one early-season turnaround story, Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson (.288/.386/.630 line with six homers).Torkelson looked to be fading from the Tigers' plans early this spring after deep struggles a year ago. But the 2020 No. 1 pick has reclaimed a middle-of-the-lineup position and is helping the club to an early lead in the AL Central.His early breakout coincides with a much deeper stance in the batter's box, about 5.8 inches deeper than last season, the fifth-biggest change among the 193 batters qualified and tracked over the last two seasons. The distance is measured from the front of home plate to the midpoint of the batter's stance. Perhaps allowing the ball to travel for those extra few milliseconds is contributing to Torkelson's excellent start.Torkelson is also more open in his stance, moving from a nearly neutral position (minus-1.8 degrees) to being more open than the MLB average (minus-15.7 degrees). That is the eighth-largest change.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781235/cropped_tork_setup_comparison.jpg?ts=1745006775" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781235/w220xh124_tork_setup_comparison.jpg?ts=1745006775 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781235/w320xh180_tork_setup_comparison.jpg?ts=1745006775 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781235/w640xh360_tork_setup_comparison.jpg?ts=1745006775 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781235/w768xh432_tork_setup_comparison.jpg?ts=1745006775 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/781235/w1080xh607_tork_setup_comparison.jpg?ts=1745006775 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> MLB Statcast</figcaption></figure>That might explain his 59% pull rate and 92.9 mph average exit velocity this season, which would be career highs.Another player off to a surprising start, the Blue Jays' <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/batting-stance?gameType=Regular&amp;minSwings=1&amp;minGroupSwings=10&amp;seasonStart=2025&amp;seasonEnd=2025&amp;team=141&amp;interceptView=false&amp;activePlayer=b543807_r">George Springer</a>, is standing 2 inches back in the box and has opened his stance by 5 degrees.The Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton owns the most closed stance (plus-12 degrees) over the last two years, while Rafael Devers (minus-63.1 degrees) is the most open.It's interesting to learn which batters most obviously disregard the back line of the box (the Angels' Kyren Paris, the Braves' Ozzie Albies, and the Mariners' J.P. Crawford), which batters crowd the plate the most (Albies again), and which batter stands nearest the pitcher (the Astros' Jose Altuve).Maybe there's not too much to take from this information, but it's another area for teams and players to explore.<h3>Jays passed a big test</h3>The Blue Jays' hot start was important for a number of reasons, but one was that April promised to be one of their most difficult stretches of schedule - at least on paper.Now that they've weathered most of it, their strength of schedule for the rest of the season ranks in the middle of the pack at .498 per Tankathon.One can also argue the AL East is weaker than a year ago as Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are in the NL, Gerrit Cole is out for the year, Giancarlo Stanton has no timetable to return, and in Tampa, Shane McClanahan and Josh Lowe are out indefinitely.Moreover, that many of the Jays' core bats have not been incredibly productive to date means the early-season stretch is about as good as the team could have hoped for - including a resurgent Chris Bassitt.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778077/cropped_GettyImages-2207163128.jpg?ts=1744849167" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778077/w220xh124_GettyImages-2207163128.jpg?ts=1744849167 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778077/w320xh180_GettyImages-2207163128.jpg?ts=1744849167 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778077/w640xh360_GettyImages-2207163128.jpg?ts=1744849167 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778077/w768xh432_GettyImages-2207163128.jpg?ts=1744849167 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778077/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2207163128.jpg?ts=1744849167 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Is Bassitt's start sustainable? He probably won't sustain a sub-1.00 ERA or strikeout and walk rates like this (31 strikeouts and five walks in his first 23 innings), but that he doubled his splitter usage and is throwing an elevated cutter against lefties, which have crushed him in recent years, suggests some improvement is real.The Jays have a long way to go, but at least they've gotten out of the gate well.Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA forecast gives the Jays the best AL East chances (35.6%), slightly ahead of the Yankees, and a 70% chance to reach the playoffs.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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The Dodgers are strong, but so is their division

The rotunda beyond the left field wall at Pittsburgh's PNC Park is something of a giant spiral st...

The rotunda beyond the left field wall at Pittsburgh's PNC Park is something of a giant spiral staircase.Its main function is to allow spectators to move between decks, but fans often stand along the railings of its four winding layers for views of the playing field.The change in elevation is an easy slope, and it's the slowest way to vertically navigate the ballpark. So it was a bit curious when Pittsburgh Pirates owner Bob Nutting took this route during the home opener April 4.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>If Nutting had any doubts about how unpopular he had become in the city, if he'd somehow avoided all the social media vitriol and the talk radio chatter, wading into fans in the rotunda brought it all home.One of the first fans to notice Nutting exclaimed, "Sell the team, Bob!"Others standing nearby took notice and an impromptu "Sell the team!" chant began, accompanied by boos and jeers. Nutting's pace increased. <a href="https://x.com/abuccofan/status/1908259004339347590">One fan</a> with his smartphone camera recording asked Nutting if he could "get a word."Nutting turned to look at the fan, without stopping. The fan asked, "How is Opening Day for ya?"<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778902/cropped_GettyImages-2167439376.jpg?ts=1744747041" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778902/w220xh124_GettyImages-2167439376.jpg?ts=1744747041 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778902/w320xh180_GettyImages-2167439376.jpg?ts=1744747041 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778902/w640xh360_GettyImages-2167439376.jpg?ts=1744747041 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778902/w768xh432_GettyImages-2167439376.jpg?ts=1744747041 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778902/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2167439376.jpg?ts=1744747041 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin Berl / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Nutting nodded, and the one security official with him impeded the fan’s path. A full ambush was averted.The state of the Pirates has become so loathsome for fans that videos, social media posts, and local news stories are reaching escape velocity and becoming a national talking point. This should be an exciting time for the fan base with Paul Skenes in the rotation, and arguably the game's next top pitching prospect, Bubba Chandler, close to joining him.But the Pirates are anything but a feel-good story.As a former beat writer who covered the team from 2013-16, I am familiar with long-standing animosity between fans and Nutting. I can remember the jokes: "Pittsburgh: City of champions, and the Pirates." I can recall the #NuttingsWallet tags on so many Twitter posts.But sentiment seems to have become more hostile this season.I texted my friend and longtime Pirates fan Joe Manetta to ask if the state of affairs was as dire as it seemed from a distance. Even Skenes' home starts have been sparsely attended."As a lifelong Pirates fan, a former employee, and a former season-ticket holder, I don't believe the morale around the team has ever been worse," Manetta wrote back.Much of the public angst is tied to the club’s lack of investment, a long-running issue.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="NL Central payroll comparison" aria-label="Multiple Columns" id="datawrapper-chart-FjFY1" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FjFY1/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="749" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}();
</script></figure>The Pirates opened the season ranked 26th in the majors in payroll, and they have ranked 26th or lower in Opening Day payroll 17 times in the 19 years of Nutting's ownership.But the lack of investment this past offseason was particularly irksome. The Pirates are sitting on a winning lottery ticket with Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, under club control through 2029. There was a feeling the limited window should prompt some win-now urgency.Instead, the Pirates signed no free agent to a multi-year deal in the offseason.Their biggest free-agent expenditures were on 37-year-old outfielder Tommy Pham (a one-year, $4-million deal), retaining 38-year-old Andrew McCutchen (one year, $5 million), and 33-year-old pitcher Andrew Heaney (one year, $5.25 million). The team also traded for first baseman Spencer Horwitz, 27, a useful player but likely not a difference-maker.The largest free agent contract in club history remains the three-year, $39-million deal Francisco Liriano signed in December 2015.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779172/cropped_GettyImages-2164307526.jpg?ts=1744747198" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779172/w220xh124_GettyImages-2164307526.jpg?ts=1744747198 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779172/w320xh180_GettyImages-2164307526.jpg?ts=1744747198 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779172/w640xh360_GettyImages-2164307526.jpg?ts=1744747198 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779172/w768xh432_GettyImages-2164307526.jpg?ts=1744747198 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779172/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2164307526.jpg?ts=1744747198 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Chris Coduto / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yet, when speaking with <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2025/04/04/yankees-home-opener-pnc-park-bob-nutting/stories/202504040072">Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporter Noah Hiles</a> for a Q&amp;A earlier in April, Nutting said he's been a fine steward of the franchise."I think that I've done everything that I can to provide the tools and resources to the team," Nutting said. "There is a point where it becomes execution."To many folks in western Pennsylvania, that is complete delusion.The Pirates' Opening Day payroll was $13 million more in 2016 - a club-record $99.95 million - than it was entering this season ($86.46 million). This despite MLB revenues doubling to $12 billion since 2007.Pittsburgh entered play Monday batting .184 as a team – the fifth-worst mark through 16 games to start a season since 1901. The Pirates were also slugging .290 and in possession of a 61 wRC+. Each measure ranked last in the majors.Even adjusting for revenue discrepancies, Nutting is one of the game's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">tightest owners</a> based on estimated revenue spent on payroll.Beyond the on-field product, some fan-friendly touches had been altered without notice. Wall signage honoring Pirates legend, Hall of Famer, and humanitarian Roberto Clemente in the right-field corner was removed and replaced by an ad for a hard lemonade.After public backlash, <a href="https://x.com/RClementejr21/status/1908931720860348477">including from Clemente's son</a>, the ad was taken down and the tribute restored. In an April 6 statement, club president Travis Williams called it an honest mistake.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780771/cropped_GettyImages-2171409191.jpg?ts=1744753117" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780771/w220xh124_GettyImages-2171409191.jpg?ts=1744753117 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780771/w320xh180_GettyImages-2171409191.jpg?ts=1744753117 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780771/w640xh360_GettyImages-2171409191.jpg?ts=1744753117 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780771/w768xh432_GettyImages-2171409191.jpg?ts=1744753117 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780771/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2171409191.jpg?ts=1744753117 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin Berl / MLB / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>On April 9, in response to emails from fans asking where their "Bucco Bricks" had gone, a local television station investigated.Fans paid the team years ago to have personalized Bucco Bricks used for a portion of the sidewalk outside PNC Park. Recently, some fans had noticed they were removed without any message from the club.It turns out the personalized mementos, which included tributes to deceased loved ones, were dumped at a local recycling facility.KDKA captured images showing the bricks in their present state: a heap of rubble ready to be pulverized. Other teams in recent years, such as the Cleveland Guardians, offered fans an opportunity to pick up similarly personalized bricks that had been removed for renovations.<a href="https://triblive.com/sports/joe-rutter-discarded-bucco-bricks-are-more-than-just-pieces-of-stone/">Tribune-Review sportswriter Joe Rutter wrote</a> about how his late father had surprised him with a brick, a larger $150 one, that was inscribed with the message: "Joe Rutter Pirates Sports Writer — Joe's Dad, Tom Rutter.""Had the Pirates informed fans with an announcement of the bricks' removal, perhaps those who purchased them could have retrieved their brick before they were sent to the dump," Rutter wrote. "Old and decaying as they were, the bricks provided an emotional connection, and the Pirates could have negated the backlash by being proactive for once and offering them back to customers as a keepsake."Instead, it marks another round of bad publicity for a franchise that is used to disappointing fans with its play on the field. Amazingly, they have found creative ways this year to upset their fan base with their actions off it."Nutting wrote an apology letter to Rutter, but the PR damage was done. The Pirates issued a response, noting they were planning a new fan tribute. But the boos did not stop raining down. (On Wednesday, the team announced a plan to provide fans who participated in the original program a <a href="https://www.mlb.com/pirates/fans/bucco-bricks">replica brick</a> and to create a new permanent display.)<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778923/cropped_GettyImages-2195413798.jpg?ts=1744747111" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778923/w220xh124_GettyImages-2195413798.jpg?ts=1744747111 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778923/w320xh180_GettyImages-2195413798.jpg?ts=1744747111 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778923/w640xh360_GettyImages-2195413798.jpg?ts=1744747111 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778923/w768xh432_GettyImages-2195413798.jpg?ts=1744747111 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778923/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2195413798.jpg?ts=1744747111 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>On April 9, when the Pirates played host to the Cardinals in an afternoon game, <a href="https://x.com/IratePiratesFan/status/1909937406087733415">"sell the team" chants</a> again broke out in the seventh and eighth innings.That evening at Pat McAfee’s "Big Night Aht" event across the Allegheny River, more "sell the team" chants thundered down from some 12,000 strong at PPG Arena when McAfee introduced Skenes."Oh shit. No, no!" McAfee exclaimed as the chants continued.Skenes stood in awkward silence with microphone in hand, wearing a thin smile, while McAfee tried to change the subject. On stage with Skenes and McAfee were longtime Pittsburgh sports fixtures Sidney Crosby and Ben Roethlisberger.Crosby and Roethlisberger signed multiple contract extensions with the Penguins and Steelers, respectively, teams in leagues that have salary caps and floors. Nothing is in place in MLB to compel Nutting, or any owner, to spend.There is almost zero chance Skenes will be in Pittsburgh beyond 2029. Gerrit Cole, another No. 1 overall pick, was traded after just four-and-a-half seasons with the Pirates."At least during the COVID years, we were in a 'rebuild' if you will call it that. We haven't rebuilt anything since 2015," Manetta said of the growing frustration. "We have the best young arm in baseball, and they have done nothing to add talent around him. I've attended the one and only game that I will attend this season, and I don't think that there was a more depressing season visit to PNC Park in the 24 seasons it's been open. It was a complete ghost town."The paid attendance figure for Skenes' start Monday was 10,402, but perhaps half that number was in the park.More goes into being a successful MLB franchise than payroll, of course, but it's difficult to argue Nutting has been a successful steward by any measure – from PR to personnel.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777615/cropped_GettyImages-2207231908.jpg?ts=1743189128" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777615/w220xh124_GettyImages-2207231908.jpg?ts=1743189128 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777615/w320xh180_GettyImages-2207231908.jpg?ts=1743189128 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777615/w640xh360_GettyImages-2207231908.jpg?ts=1743189128 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777615/w768xh432_GettyImages-2207231908.jpg?ts=1743189128 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777615/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2207231908.jpg?ts=1743189128 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rich Storry / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Recent drafts under general manager Ben Cherington appear promising with prospects such as Chandler, Konnor Griffin, and Termarr Johnson added to the farm system, but the front-office regime, in its sixth season, has yet to produce an above-average position player. The farm system ranks 16th at Baseball America and 19th at FanGraphs.Since Nutting took controlling interest in the club in January 2007, the Pirates rank 28th in wins (1,289), have had only four winning seasons and three postseason appearances (2013-15 under former GM Neal Huntington), and have not won a playoff round aside from the 2013 NL wild-card game.Similar teams that live with budget constraints such as the Tampa Bay Rays (1,520 wins) and Cleveland Guardians (1,480) rank fourth and seventh in the majors in wins since 2007.Pittsburgh is a great sports town. PNC Park is arguably the best ballpark in baseball. Yet it's often far from capacity.What can force change?MLB rarely pressures owners to sell, although it happened in 2011 when owner Frank McCourt was forced to sell the Los Angeles Dodgers after the team filed for bankruptcy. Owners tend to stay out of one another's affairs, and the commissioner works on their behalf.Pirates fans have limited bargaining power aside from staying home.Next year will be Nutting's 20th year as the principal owner of the club. Pittsburgh, unlike the Athletics and Rays, does not need a new ballpark. It just needs someone to invest and someone to execute for a passionate fan base that has reached the end of its rope.Perhaps if they shout loudly enough, for long enough, someone will listen.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Pirates baseball: Three rivers of fan angst and animosity

NORTH PORT, Fla. - As Spencer Strider waited in pre-op for his second major elbow operation last ...

NORTH PORT, Fla. - As Spencer Strider waited in pre-op for his second major elbow operation last April - five years and six weeks after his first - he wasn't entirely sure what surgeons would do to the inside of his right arm.The Atlanta Braves pitcher felt discomfort last spring, so he consulted with several surgeons and radiologists about the best path forward regarding his damaged ulnar collateral ligament.Several recommended a second Tommy John surgery without hesitation.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>But Dr. Keith Meister didn't have a firm answer. Imaging science isn't infallible.Meister gave Strider a menu of options he might pursue for the surgery, but he wouldn't commit to a specific plan until he could examine the ligament with his own eyes. At that point, Strider would already be under anesthesia, so he had to agree in advance to multiple courses of action."I liked that uncertain perspective (Meister) had," Strider said. "He said, 'I cannot tell you what the best thing is until I see it.' And that patience, and just like zoomed-out perspective, made a lot of sense to me."Strider wanted to avoid a second full Tommy John knowing the track record.About 90% of pitchers return to the mound after their first Tommy John surgery, but the outlook is less positive for repeat customers. According to Jon Roegele's database, 162 players have undergone a second TJ, and only 105 have returned to date (64.8%).MLB's injury study released in December revealed that only 59% of pitchers who underwent a second Tommy John surgery managed to return to their previous level of performance.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620675/cropped_GettyImages-2036206909.jpg?ts=1712696445" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620675/w220xh124_GettyImages-2036206909.jpg?ts=1712696445 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620675/w320xh180_GettyImages-2036206909.jpg?ts=1712696445 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620675/w640xh360_GettyImages-2036206909.jpg?ts=1712696445 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620675/w768xh432_GettyImages-2036206909.jpg?ts=1712696445 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620675/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2036206909.jpg?ts=1712696445 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Matthew Grimes Jr. / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"I've already had Tommy John, which means they've already drilled tunnels in my bones, which means there is less space to do that again, which means my body has to heal again, and the last time it healed, it grew a giant bone fragment in my ligament," Strider said. "So the idea of a full reconstruction with another graft, is that a great idea? What kind of risk does that expose me to?"Strider is ready to return this week from his second elbow procedure - although not a second Tommy John - after three rehab outings in the minors. He's one of three high-profile pitchers making a comeback this season from a second elbow procedure. Two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom has already returned to action with the Texas Rangers, and Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan is expected back soon.Strider, deGrom, and McClanahan are no longer outliers. Second major elbow surgeries are becoming increasingly common because of the stress of pitching in the modern game. A staggering 36% of active pitchers have undergone Tommy John surgery. Of the 162 players with multiple elbow operations, 130 have occurred since 2010.Why do the second surgeries fail so often?Orthopedic surgeon Jeffrey Dugas says a second Tommy John surgery often changes the dynamic of how the joint functions.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780108/cropped_GettyImages-1372642016.jpg?ts=1744400066" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780108/w220xh124_GettyImages-1372642016.jpg?ts=1744400066 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780108/w320xh180_GettyImages-1372642016.jpg?ts=1744400066 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780108/w640xh360_GettyImages-1372642016.jpg?ts=1744400066 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780108/w768xh432_GettyImages-1372642016.jpg?ts=1744400066 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780108/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1372642016.jpg?ts=1744400066 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">John Lackey's Tommy John scar from his 2012 return. Matt Stone / Boston Herald / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"You're putting another (tendon) graft on top of an already bulky piece of tissue, and that does change how the joint responds, how it creates tension … and holds the joint stable," said Dugas of repeat ligament reconstruction. "You also have some healing issues because you've already drilled the bone and put tendon in there."In a Tommy John operation, surgeons drill tunnels through the upper arm (humerus) and the lower arm (ulna) and thread a tendon graft - typically taken from the pitcher's forearm or knee - through the channels to reconstruct the damaged ligament and restore stability to the elbow.Drilling a second set of holes creates new complications."Assuming it was done well the first time, you are drilling into the same part of the bone, so you are asking the bone to heal to the tendon in a place where the biology interface is not likely to be as good as it was the first time," Dugas said.That makes a second repair more likely to fail.There's little that can be done to overcome these biological limitations. Instead, pitchers need alternatives. They need medical and sports science breakthroughs for better second-surgery outcomes, which Dugas sought to provide.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><center>                         </center></figure>As Strider's hour-long surgery began, Meister identified the issue with his elbow - something an MRI couldn't reveal. A fragment of extra bone, formed during the healing process of his first surgery, had become lodged in his UCL. This fragment had obscured the MRI images, making the damage appear more severe than it actually was.Because the partial tear from the fragment was near the bone, Strider became a candidate for a relatively new procedure: InternalBrace surgery, a technique pioneered by Dugas."Tommy John fits all," Dugas said. "InternalBrace fits some."As of last April, only 41 Division I or higher-level baseball players had undergone the InternalBrace procedure, according to Roegele's database. Despite its unfamiliarity, Strider approved the InternalBrace as an option before surgery. Beyond the specifics of his injury, he appeared to be an ideal candidate for the procedure.After undergoing his first Tommy John surgery at Clemson, Strider delved into the science of the procedure and taught himself to become an elite performer. The logic and methodology behind the new InternalBrace surgery seemed sound to Strider. It didn't hurt that the Mariners' Bryan Woo and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy were notable successes."I defer to experts," Strider said. "I think (Meister) has seen the inside of more elbows than most."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/762923/cropped_GettyImages-2191898333.jpg?ts=1744400239" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/762923/w220xh124_GettyImages-2191898333.jpg?ts=1744400239 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/762923/w320xh180_GettyImages-2191898333.jpg?ts=1744400239 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/762923/w640xh360_GettyImages-2191898333.jpg?ts=1744400239 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/762923/w768xh432_GettyImages-2191898333.jpg?ts=1744400239 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/762923/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2191898333.jpg?ts=1744400239 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Ezra Shaw / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The InternalBrace procedure represents the kind of scientific advancement Strider believes is possible, offering pitchers a better chance at a successful return following a second elbow surgery.Its origin story dates back to the early 2010s when Dugas was working with renowned Tommy John surgeon Dr. James Andrews, who shared a disheartening thought."'It's a shame we have to do this big operation for this little bit of injury,'" Dugas recalled.That made Dugas curious: Why was there only one tool (Tommy John) for a range of elbow repairs?He came across the work of Scottish surgeon Gordon Mackay, who had used tiny anchors and a new Kevlar-like, collagen-coated tape dubbed FiberTape to help heal ankles.Dugas believed it could work in elbows.He contacted the company that produced the anchors and tape, Arthrex, and asked to travel to its headquarters in Naples, Florida, to test the concept on cadavers. In the lab setting, it worked. Now, Dugas had to wait for the first human case.Dugas was looking for a patient with a UCL tear near the bone, ideally the humerus, and whose ligament tissue appeared healthy enough to be reattached without a graft.He found one in Mark Johnson, a high school senior from Ozark, Alabama, whose trailblazing operation occurred on Aug. 8, 2013.Injuries near the bone have a better chance of healing due to the bone's rich blood supply, which ligaments lack. For example, a tear in the middle of the UCL often can't heal on its own because of the ligament's limited blood flow. The hope was that scar tissue from the micro-drilling of Johnson's humerus would adhere to his reattached torn ligament, allowing it to heal without a tendon graft. FiberTape and tiny 3.5mm anchors embedded in his humerus and ulna held in place and supported the ligament.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761104/cropped_GettyImages-2141948313.jpg?ts=1744328830" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761104/w220xh124_GettyImages-2141948313.jpg?ts=1744328830 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761104/w320xh180_GettyImages-2141948313.jpg?ts=1744328830 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761104/w640xh360_GettyImages-2141948313.jpg?ts=1744328830 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761104/w768xh432_GettyImages-2141948313.jpg?ts=1744328830 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761104/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2141948313.jpg?ts=1744328830 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Kevin D. Liles / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Unlike a full Tommy John, which requires a tendon graft to reconstruct the ligament, the InternalBrace procedure is designed to avoid grafts, though some hybrid surgeries involve both. Also important: the surgery doesn't need to drill new tunnels completely through the bone."Tendons and ligaments are similar, but they are not identical," Dugas said. "When you place a tendon graft onto something, it has to heal onto that something, and then it has to undergo a process of ligamentization, which basically means the fibers of that graft have to orient themselves and become ligament-like. And that's the process that takes 12 months."(Conversely) when you are just putting ligament back where it came from, it doesn't have to undergo that process. It's already ligament. It just has to stick."The procedure promises a quicker return.Five and a half months after Johnson underwent the first InternalBrace elbow procedure, his athletic trainers sent Dugas a video of him throwing at full effort off the mound. Dugas was alarmed, but Johnson was adamant he was ready. Johnson went on to have a college career.Seth Maness became the first pro pitcher to return to the majors following the surgery in 2017, eight months and 27 days after his operation.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780112/cropped_GettyImages-170949063.jpg?ts=1744400514" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780112/w220xh124_GettyImages-170949063.jpg?ts=1744400514 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780112/w320xh180_GettyImages-170949063.jpg?ts=1744400514 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780112/w640xh360_GettyImages-170949063.jpg?ts=1744400514 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780112/w768xh432_GettyImages-170949063.jpg?ts=1744400514 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/780112/w1080xh607_GettyImages-170949063.jpg?ts=1744400514 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">Seth Maness pitching for St. Louis in 2013. Ronald C. Modra / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>On average, players return to action in 11.3 months after an InternalBrace procedure. Since 2016, Tommy John recipients average 18.8 months.Strider probably could have returned earlier this season. He was throwing bullpens 10 months after his surgery. He dominated in his rehab outings.Dugas said he and his team are soon set to publish a paper showing that pitchers who undergo an InternalBrace procedure after a previous Tommy John surgery experience better results than those who have a second Tommy John.According to Dugas' research, only 42% of pitchers who have a second Tommy John surgery return to pitch at least 10 games at the MLB level."I expect we will be able to show that returning from a second injury is considerably better now," Dugas said.McClanahan had a full Tommy John surgery and an InternalBrace installed, as did deGrom."Every circumstance is different. Every person is unique," McClanahan said. Even with the second surgery, McClanahan isn't interested in slowing down despite MLB's interest in reducing velocity. He doesn't see any incentive to throw with less force. He hit 99 mph this spring."Batters are getting stronger," he said. "Pitchers are pitching harder to combat that."Like Strider, McClanahan believes it's on the medical and sports science establishments to push the game forward. That evolution may already be underway with new procedures like Dr. Christopher Ahmad's "TJ3," a hybrid surgery combining traditional Tommy John ligament repair and reconstruction with an InternalBrace.Still, surgery is only the beginning of the long road back to the mound.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><center>                         </center></figure>While it might seem like pro baseball is overwhelmed with data, Strider believes we need more. MLB's December injury report identified increased pitching velocity as the primary driver of arm injuries and that the plague would continue unless something changed. But pitchers aren't going to dial back their velocity; there's no incentive to do so. Instead, Strider said, the change has to come from somewhere else."I think different parts of the baseball industry have moved at different speeds," he said. "For instance, we have learned way faster how to improve velocity, improve mechanics, improve strength as it relates to rotational force output, which is another way to say throwing. But, for instance, we have not as quickly learned how to manage workloads, starting at the amateur level."Surgical advancements offer a path to recovery, but the best solution is preventing injuries in the first place.To fuel his own development, Strider has been collecting loads of data on himself.Even before his injury, he began working with Maven Baseball Lab in Atlanta. Strider figured the more information he had, the better his chances of staying off the operating table. And if another injury did occur, the database would give him a better road map to follow during rehab.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614023/cropped_GettyImages-1723191549.jpg?ts=1744400648" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614023/w220xh124_GettyImages-1723191549.jpg?ts=1744400648 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614023/w320xh180_GettyImages-1723191549.jpg?ts=1744400648 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614023/w640xh360_GettyImages-1723191549.jpg?ts=1744400648 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614023/w768xh432_GettyImages-1723191549.jpg?ts=1744400648 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614023/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1723191549.jpg?ts=1744400648 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Elsa / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>"I relied on (Maven) heavily," Strider said. "I've built a database with them over the last few years, throwing in the offseason, accumulating data, with the intention of, 'At some point I am going to need this, I am going to need to understand why I was moving this way when I was doing well.'"That's another aspect of the injury conversation that the industry is not thinking about. When guys are moving well, when we have someone who has demonstrated elite health and the ability to recover, we need to understand as best we can what their workload is like, what their movement pattern is like."Even during his excellent 2023 season, Strider, an analytical reasoner, believed he was too subjective in thinking about how he was feeling and recovering. He wanted a more objective, data-driven approach to guide his routine and decision-making."(The Maven database) allowed me to disassociate from my subjective opinion of how I'm moving," he said. "We are wired to look for positivity. It's easy to look at a video of yourself throwing and say, 'Yeah, it looks good,' because we crave that affirmation. Rather than, 'Nope, that's still not right. That's not where it needs to be.' The data and technology … regardless of how I feel and what someone thinks, it's not conjecture. That change was instrumental."In addition to in-game data from Statcast and the insights from high-speed cameras and spin-rate tracking tools used in the bullpen, Strider now wears a Pulse arm sleeve to monitor every throw he makes. The device helps track his workload and measures the peak forces he's placing on his arm, giving him a clearer picture of the physical demands he's facing."We should be putting that on everybody," Strider said. "Let's figure out how many throws you are making. How much stress are you putting on your arm between starts? Let's start to find everybody's optimal workload base."Through this second recovery, Strider hopes not only to improve but to challenge conventional thinking about what is possible.Strider wants to show MLB that a second major operation doesn't have to be the end of something but rather the beginning of a long and productive new chapter.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Strider aims to redefine what's possible after 2nd elbow surgery

In about 20 years, if all goes well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have a statue unveiled outside Ro...

In about 20 years, if all goes well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have a statue unveiled outside Rogers Centre.By then he could hold every major <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3260703" href="https://thescore.com/news/3260703">offensive record</a> in club history, and perhaps even a World Series ring.That's the dream with the 14-year, $500-million <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3260554" href="https://thescore.com/news/3260554">deal</a> Guerrero struck with the Toronto Blue Jays, one of the most consequential transactions in club history. The hope is he becomes the signature player in the franchise's history.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Sportsnet's Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith <a href="https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1909097475597643862">report</a> the deal has <a href="https://x.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1909209407675654160">no opt-outs</a> or deferrals. It's an all-in agreement on both sides.The deal is incredibly significant not only because of the enormous sum guaranteed to one player but also for what it means for the club's on-field capabilities and clarity in planning its future course.The deal comes with significant long-term risks for the club, but at the very least it gets a short-term PR and on-field victory.Let's start with the on-field impact.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779293/cropped_GettyImages-1614494652.jpg?ts=1744030430" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779293/w220xh124_GettyImages-1614494652.jpg?ts=1744030430 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779293/w320xh180_GettyImages-1614494652.jpg?ts=1744030430 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779293/w640xh360_GettyImages-1614494652.jpg?ts=1744030430 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779293/w768xh432_GettyImages-1614494652.jpg?ts=1744030430 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779293/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1614494652.jpg?ts=1744030430 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>In retaining its most talented homegrown player of this century - a prospect Baseball America once attached top-of-the-scale scouting grades of 80 to his hit and power tools - the Jays now have a long-term cornerstone to build around.Guerrero's career 137 wRC+ through his age-25 season ranks 37th among all hitters who have recorded at least 1,500 plate appearances before turning 26 since 1960.And since his debut, his wRC+ ranks 12th among all hitters.The only players to put up better marks at a similar age since 2019 are Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr.The deal also eliminates some uncertainty about the direction the club would have taken had it lost Guerrero and Bo Bichette via free agency after this season.If a club is paying a first baseman an average of $35 million per year for 14 years, its efforts should be focused on contending while Guerrero is in his prime. The deal will start to look less favorable in the second half of its term.The commitment also makes the Jays' most recent offseason efforts make sense. Players such as Anthony Santander and Andrés Giménez work much better as supporting actors on a good team rather than being expected to be the faces of the franchise.With Guerrero just in his age-26 season, Alan Roden on the major-league roster, and Bowden Francis in the rotation, the club can hope Guerrero's prime coincides with more improvement and production from investments made in their draft-and-development process. Guerrero will still be a cornerstone if and when current top prospect Arjun Nimmala arrives in, say, three years. Potential free agent targets also know Guerrero is going to be in Toronto.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779266/cropped_GettyImages-2208241601.jpg?ts=1744049526" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779266/w220xh124_GettyImages-2208241601.jpg?ts=1744049526 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779266/w320xh180_GettyImages-2208241601.jpg?ts=1744049526 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779266/w640xh360_GettyImages-2208241601.jpg?ts=1744049526 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779266/w768xh432_GettyImages-2208241601.jpg?ts=1744049526 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/779266/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2208241601.jpg?ts=1744049526 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>This is also a public relations victory.The deal injects optimism into a frustrated fan base that had seen the club fall short on high-profile free agent targets in recent offseasons. It's been a decade since the club's last postseason series win (2016 ALDS),Despite additional renovations to Rogers Centre, the Jays' year-over-year attendance through its first seven home dates is down 5,158 fans per game. Last season, the Jays had the second-biggest attendance decline in the sport (a loss of 4,206 fans per game).A cloud had been hanging over the club since the start of spring training, when Guerrero's deadline for an extension passed. There was a feeling this was the end of an era. That cloud is gone.The biggest winner here is the Guerrero camp. It held firm until it received the offer it wanted.Guerrero becomes the third player in MLB history to sign a contract reaching $500 million, joining Shohei Ohtani and Soto.Guerrero's deal also shatters the previous highs for first basemen.The deal more than doubles that of the biggest contracts given to free-agent first basemen - Albert Pujols' 10-year, $240-million contract and Prince Fielder's nine-year, $214-million deal. Both were signed in 2012. The biggest extension to any first baseman was the eight-year, $248-million pact Miguel Cabrera signed with Detroit in 2014.The industry has become less willing to give big money to bat-first sluggers, in part because of concerns about how they age. Pete Alonso, 30, had to settle for a two-year, $54-million deal this winter.The time elements make this risky for the Jays. Waiting until the eve of Guerrero's free agency made the deal much more expensive, and it now includes more decline years. The Jays will be paying Guerrero through age 40.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614128/cropped_GettyImages-1431567247.jpg?ts=1724441033" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614128/w220xh124_GettyImages-1431567247.jpg?ts=1724441033 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614128/w320xh180_GettyImages-1431567247.jpg?ts=1724441033 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614128/w640xh360_GettyImages-1431567247.jpg?ts=1724441033 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614128/w768xh432_GettyImages-1431567247.jpg?ts=1724441033 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/614128/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1431567247.jpg?ts=1724441033 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Stacy Revere / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>After Pujols joined the Los Angeles Angels, he began a steep decline in his mid-30s.He was a below-replacement-level player from age 37-40. His only year of producing above a 123 wRC+ was in his first year of the deal. Of course, Pujols was already 32 when the Angels deal began. But his Cardinals years were Hall of Fame worthy.Some declines can come even earlier, such as Fielder's.Fielder's career ended after his age-32 season because of injuries. He was a below-replacement-level performer overall in his final three seasons with Texas from age 30-32.Cabrera never hit more than 16 home runs in a season after age 34.Of course, selling tickets and jerseys to watch a player chase 500-plus homers and 3,000 hits can soften such a decline for the club.The good news is Guerrero will be beginning his deal at 27 and should be expected to be a well above-average hitter through age 32 with good health.But after that, it could get ugly. The Jays need to have urgency during the next half a dozen seasons. But if you are the Jays, or a Jays fan, that downside risk down the road is outweighed by the positives. They kept talking and now they have a deal. It was expensive, it could look ugly down the road for the club, but it could also shape the trajectory of the franchise in a way few players could. Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30889040/related

The opportunity and risk of Jays' all-in deal with Guerrero

Major League Baseball has an incentives problem.  You're acutely aware of it if you follow a smal...

Major League Baseball has an incentives problem.You're acutely aware of it if you follow a small or medium-sized market club. Even some large-market clubs - hello, Seattle - seem ambivalent about on-field results.As the season began last week, there was again talk of salary caps to restore competitiveness balance - or at least the perception of it.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The conversation and angst were renewed as clubs that ought to have done more like the Pirates, Guardians, Twins, Mariners, and Reds essentially sat out the offseason or made their rosters worse to reduce payroll.Early season attendance is down 28% in St. Louis (worst change in MLB through six home dates year-over-year), down 21% in Cincinnati (third worst through six home games), down 17% in Baltimore (which had more talent leave than was added in the winter), and a decline of 12% in Seattle (ninth worst).Overall attendance is nearly flat year-over-year through 100 total games (-727 fans per game).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/cropped_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin K. Aller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>MLB is the only major North American sport with such an imbalanced playing field, with such a gray cloud of financial inequality lingering over it. The discussion rains down pessimism even during opening week.The problem is a salary cap-and-floor system is a pipe dream for those that want it. The idea remains anathema to the players' union leadership even though many players would benefit from it considering baseball has the greatest share of players paid at the minimum salary in North American sports.The idea that billionaire owners should spend more is great in theory but isn't rooted in the reality of human nature, or the disparity in liquid wealth between owners. Most owners operate at similar net margins, as <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">we studied</a> last fall.For the sake of the thought experiments below, let's assume a cap-and-floor system is off the table, as is finding 29 other Steve Cohens to run ball clubs.What other kinds of incentives could change behavior? And could they grow overall interest in the game?With MLB experimenting with ghost runners, pitch clocks, and robot umps, why not reconsider what could truly drive interest? Let's explore.<h3>Alternative Universe No. 1: Wild-card ineligibility</h3>There's no doubt the Dodgers are playing a different financial game, but I believe MLB's primary problem is its bottom feeders. That's a key - perhaps the key - to address.Consider that on Aug. 1 last year, there were 12 teams with less than a 10% chance of reaching the playoffs and eight with less than a 1% chance, according to FanGraphs. Eight!On Aug. 1, 2023, nine teams had less than 10% postseason chances and eight (again) had less than a 1% chance.On Aug. 1, 2022, there were 13 teams with less than a 10% chance at the postseason and 12 with chances under 1%.And this is the expanded playoff era.In a zero-sum game, there will always be teams at the bottom of the standings, but there's a gap between bad and terrible in MLB today.Under the current playoff format in place since 2022, there are an average of 11.3 teams with slim postseason chances - say, under 10% - and 9.3 teams that are essentially mathematically eliminated with two months - a third of the season! - to play.There are also recurring offenders.The Rockies' playoff chances have been at 0% in each of the last three seasons on Aug. 1. Zero! This is true of the A's, too. The Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Royals, and White Sox held less than 1% playoff odds at the trade deadline in two of the last three years.Far too many teams play too many essentially meaningless games.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759190/cropped_GettyImages-2152023187.jpg?ts=1743710924" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759190/w220xh124_GettyImages-2152023187.jpg?ts=1743710924 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759190/w320xh180_GettyImages-2152023187.jpg?ts=1743710924 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759190/w640xh360_GettyImages-2152023187.jpg?ts=1743710924 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759190/w768xh432_GettyImages-2152023187.jpg?ts=1743710924 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759190/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2152023187.jpg?ts=1743710924 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>To tackle this problem via thought experiment, let's begin with the less radical proposal I'll put forward.It goes like this: the three worst teams in each league by overall record should be ruled ineligible for a wild-card berth the following year.There's one get out of jail free card: a wild-card ineligible team can earn a postseason berth the following season by winning its division.The idea is to raise the floor, to raise the interest level in competing, and reduce the volume of games tied to virtually no stakes.Based on last year's standings, the A's, Angels, and White Sox would be wild-card ineligible this season in the AL, while the Marlins, Rockies, and Nationals would be ineligible in the NL. In this world, teams at the bottom would have something to play for, or play to avoid.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777038/cropped_GettyImages-2168029218.jpg?ts=1743711120" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777038/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168029218.jpg?ts=1743711120 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777038/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168029218.jpg?ts=1743711120 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777038/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168029218.jpg?ts=1743711120 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777038/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168029218.jpg?ts=1743711120 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777038/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168029218.jpg?ts=1743711120 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin Edmonds / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>And consider attendance, because it's tied to winning,Last year, the top 10 teams by Aug. 1 playoff probability finished with a combined 27.44 million in attendance. The next best 10 teams by playoff chances had a combined 23.96 million paid fans, and the bottom 10 had 19.95 million.And it's how attendance falls off for some out of contention by late summer that's concerning.The Pirates averaged only 18,975 fans per game after Aug. 1 last year compared to an average of 22,502 per game from April through July.MLB could do wonders for the perception of its product if it could nudge its worst offenders to be more competitive, and get more teams involved in the offseason and also in the season-long entertainment product on the field. In other words: more year-round public interest. <h3>Alternative Universe No. 2: Hybrid relegation</h3>North American fans and owners may not want an English Premier League-style equivalent, where the worst teams are demoted to lesser leagues, but what about something in between?The following is a structure that preserves the 162-game schedule, two leagues, 12-team playoffs, and the World Series, but which adds an element that creates enormous incentives up and down the standings, fostering season-long interest.This hypothetical includes 11-team AL and NL leagues that send six teams each to the playoffs. (One big change here: there are no longer divisions, only two leagues and a relegation group.)Teams that finish seventh, eighth, and ninth in each league are safe, but the 10th- and 11th-place teams would be banished to what I'm calling the Purgatory Division, an eight-team grouping for the following season.Why eight in purgatory? Because MLB tends to have eight-to-10 teams uninterested or unable to compete. This would be the ultimate motivation to do something.The top three teams in the purgatory division gain access back to the AL or NL the following year, and a fourth team is elevated as determined by a four-team playoff between the No. 4 through No. 7 seeds. These are pages out of the EPL.At the end of the season, only the worst team - No. 8 in the relegation division - has no chance to be elevated.Sorry, 2024 White Sox. While there could be many ways to decide which league to assign the elevated teams, teams themselves could make the selections determined by order of finish.Here's what last season looked like in this alternative reality with actual records:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="⚾️ Alternative standings" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-TVSLL" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TVSLL/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="471" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}();
</script></figure>It's easy to see how there'd be great incentive up and down the landscape of the standings. Almost every team would play for something all season long.The Mets, Royals, Cardinals, and Nationals escape relegation and celebrate.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744160/cropped_GettyImages-2170755918.jpg?ts=1743710961" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744160/w220xh124_GettyImages-2170755918.jpg?ts=1743710961 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744160/w320xh180_GettyImages-2170755918.jpg?ts=1743710961 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744160/w640xh360_GettyImages-2170755918.jpg?ts=1743710961 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744160/w768xh432_GettyImages-2170755918.jpg?ts=1743710961 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744160/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2170755918.jpg?ts=1743710961 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Ed Zurga / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Pirates fall into baseball purgatory, the latter just by a game. Wouldn't that incentivize Pittsburgh to build more seriously around Paul Skenes?With respect to scheduling, it could range from balanced to imbalanced. We could imagine something like AL/NL teams playing 80 intraleague games, 66 interleague games, and 16 games against relegated teams. That's more incentive to climb from the cellar.The hypothetical 2025 MLB landscape based upon actual 2024 results:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="⚾️ 2025 landscape" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-EXYal" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EXYal/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="562" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}();
</script></figure>In this alternate reality, no one's forcing any owner to spend or to meet a salary floor. No owner loses revenue sharing, though that could be another consideration. But there would be second thoughts on tanking, dumping salary, and sitting out the offseason.While relegation would be threatening to most owners, and while ticket sales would drop for demoted clubs, the amount of value and interest added to the regular season as a whole could be immense.MLB has by far the greatest live sports inventory, after all, yet it's not maximizing it.Is this thought experiment too radical? Certainly for some, and perhaps many. And even if you're skeptical, we can probably agree the sport would benefit from some new incentives to force its floor to rise.Again, consider that roughly 30% of teams - and fan bases - are checking out by Aug. 1 each year. That's not healthy for MLB.The industry should think of incentives, the right nudges, to make its product more compelling to more fans, especially since there's no end in sight to its financial imbalance.Create the right incentives and enjoy better outcomes.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30858530/related

A radical incentive to nudge MLB teams to try harder

The biggest takeaway from the opening weekend of the MLB season? The New York Yankees unleashed w...

The biggest takeaway from the opening weekend of the MLB season? The New York Yankees unleashed what appeared to be a secret weapon with their so-called torpedo bats.Given the attention they received, they're not a secret anymore.The bats are unusual in how the mass gets distributed. The barrel looks straight out of candlepin bowling since there's less width at the end of the barrel and more in the bat's center. The idea is that this lowers and lengthens the bat's sweet spot.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The question is whether the torpedo bats mark a game-changing alteration or whether this was just an outlier series at the beginning of a new season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778266/cropped_GettyImages-2192155694.jpg?ts=1743458320" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778266/w220xh124_GettyImages-2192155694.jpg?ts=1743458320 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778266/w320xh180_GettyImages-2192155694.jpg?ts=1743458320 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778266/w640xh360_GettyImages-2192155694.jpg?ts=1743458320 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778266/w768xh432_GettyImages-2192155694.jpg?ts=1743458320 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778266/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2192155694.jpg?ts=1743458320 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Boston Globe / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>At least five Yankees hitters used the bats when they tied an MLB record with 15 home runs during their first three games of the campaign. New York scored 32 runs across Saturday and Sunday, finishing a three-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers.One MLB hitting coach told theScore that he expects the bat style to become the new standard."It's very easy to see where contact is made most often on the bat for each hitter," he said. "Virtually all hitters make more contact toward the label versus the end of the bat, so it makes sense for almost all."The first three pitches Brewers starter Nestor Cortez tossed Saturday all resulted in home runs. That had never happened in a major-league game. Two were by hitters using the new bat: Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The long balls kicked off New York's 20-9 rout.MLB announced over the weekend that the torpedo doesn't violate Rule 3.02, which states that a bat cannot be more than 2.61 inches in diameter and 42 inches in length.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778211/cropped_GettyImages-2206826195.jpg?ts=1743453267" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778211/w220xh124_GettyImages-2206826195.jpg?ts=1743453267 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778211/w320xh180_GettyImages-2206826195.jpg?ts=1743453267 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778211/w640xh360_GettyImages-2206826195.jpg?ts=1743453267 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778211/w768xh432_GettyImages-2206826195.jpg?ts=1743453267 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778211/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2206826195.jpg?ts=1743453267 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Stobe / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The torpedo is the brainchild of former Yankees hitting analyst and MIT physicist Aaron Leanhardt, now a coach with the Miami Marlins. In 2022, he tried to improve contact quality by placing more mass where batters most often make contact, increasing exit velocity.Some public data sleuths believe there's a benefit, with <a href="https://x.com/sunshinevvn/status/1906156319113183647">one analyst estimating</a> a ball hit two inches below the traditional sweet spot might produce about a 5% bump in exit velocity compared to a regular bat."The concept makes so much sense," Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe told reporters Sunday. "The bigger you can have the barrel where you hit the ball, it makes sense to me."New York's Giancarlo Stanton also used the torpedo bat last October when he slugged seven homers in the postseason.At least 13 known major leaguers are using the bats, according to accounting by <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/which-mlb-players-are-using-torpedo-bats-yankees-lead-the-way-but-other-stars-have-embraced-unique-bat-shape-163246296.html">Yahoo! writer Chris Cwik</a>. Five are Yankees regulars, but Aaron Judge, who hit four homers over the weekend, isn't one of them.Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor and Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero are using the torpedo. The Cubs' Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner, the Blue Jays' Davis Schneider, and the Twins' Ryan Jeffers are also among the other early adopters.We'll need a lot more data to measure the bats' effect, but there might be some early measurable impact. Bellinger, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3255055" href="https://thescore.com/news/3255055">Jazz Chisholm</a>, and Caminero enjoyed career-best average exit velocities through Sunday's games. The Yankees' team average exit velocity (91.5 mph) is up nearly 0.9 mph from last year.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778212/cropped_GettyImages-2207177846.jpg?ts=1743453229" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778212/w220xh124_GettyImages-2207177846.jpg?ts=1743453229 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778212/w320xh180_GettyImages-2207177846.jpg?ts=1743453229 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778212/w640xh360_GettyImages-2207177846.jpg?ts=1743453229 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778212/w768xh432_GettyImages-2207177846.jpg?ts=1743453229 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778212/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2207177846.jpg?ts=1743453229 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Stobe / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There might also be benefits regarding bat speed. Six of the 13 players using the torpedo have bat speeds that would mark career bests.The Yankees' average bat speed is 72.6 mph this season, compared to 72.1 mph last year. If they average that number for the entire campaign, it would rank fifth since 2023, when Statcast first began tracking bat speed.The Phillies' Bryson Stott <a href="https://x.com/Devan_Kaney/status/1906730073132085575">said</a> the bats aren't for everyone, though."If you're a guy that uses the whole bat, it's not for you," Stott said. "It's not one of those things where you can just call and say, 'I want this torpedo' because it might not work for you."The Yankees are the first movers, but other clubs have experimented with the torpedo bat in recent years.The Baltimore Orioles are one team that's used the torpedo in their system, and catcher Adley Rutschman is among the MLB hitters picking up the bat. He homered twice during the club's season opener against the Blue Jays.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778265/cropped_GettyImages-2206562032.jpg?ts=1743457981" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778265/w220xh124_GettyImages-2206562032.jpg?ts=1743457981 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778265/w320xh180_GettyImages-2206562032.jpg?ts=1743457981 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778265/w640xh360_GettyImages-2206562032.jpg?ts=1743457981 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778265/w768xh432_GettyImages-2206562032.jpg?ts=1743457981 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/778265/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2206562032.jpg?ts=1743457981 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Thomas Skrlj / MLB / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>This isn't the first time bat technology has changed as hitters try to keep pace with pitch-design breakthroughs from training centers.In recent years we've seen the axe handle and larger knob handles introduced. Batters have gone to hitting labs searching for optimal weight and length for their bats, known as "bat fitting," similar to how golfers choose and create custom clubs.But in the modern game, we haven't seen anyone rethink the shape of the bat barrel quite like this.The bat might seem like an obvious place to look for an edge, but it was overlooked for whatever reason.Perhaps it's because there are constraints in optimizing a bat. Only a few types of wood are legal, and there are restrictions to the length and weight. MLB has long frowned upon those players who cheated to create an edge by inserting cork or rubber balls in the barrel. But rethinking what a bat could and should look like might give hitters a newfound edge.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 29: Austin Wells #28 of the New York Yankees hits a home run on a torpedo bat in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Yankee Stadium on March 29, 2025 in New York City.

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Damn the torpedoes: Limited data won't quell orders for new bats

TAMPA - Josh Lowe watched from the couch of his offseason home in Orlando as gusts from Hurricane...

TAMPA - Josh Lowe watched from the couch of his offseason home in Orlando as gusts from Hurricane Milton ripped the roof off his workplace, Tropicana Field, last October.A few weeks later, he traveled to see the damage in person. Shreds of the translucent, Teflon-coated fiberglass roof were strewn across the lower bowl and field. The open sky was an unfamiliar sight."Surreal," he said.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The Rays would have to find a new home in the near term. And with team owner Stuart Sternberg recently withdrawing from an agreement to build a new ballpark in St. Petersburg, the club might also need a new long-term location.The Rays are thankful to work out a deal with the Yankees to use Steinbrenner Field, New York's spring training and High-A affiliate home, as temporary quarters.With their season opener in Tampa on Friday, the Rays joined the A's, who are Airbnb-ing in Sacramento, as a second major-league team playing in a minor-league park this campaign."We could be in a cornfield in Missouri, or wherever the hell there are cornfields, and it's still a Major League Baseball game," Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan said.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749453/cropped_GettyImages-2177847834.jpg?ts=1743190887" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749453/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177847834.jpg?ts=1743190887 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749453/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177847834.jpg?ts=1743190887 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749453/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177847834.jpg?ts=1743190887 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749453/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177847834.jpg?ts=1743190887 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749453/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177847834.jpg?ts=1743190887 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Joe Raedle / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Even with upgraded facilities, a minor-league ballpark might not seem an ideal home. But it'll be an interesting venue for a few reasons and could have far-reaching consequences.For starters, after playing in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, the team figures to play in an offensive-friendly park now.Steinbrenner Field features nearly the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, which <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&amp;year=2024&amp;batSide=L&amp;stat=index_wOBA&amp;condition=All&amp;rolling=3&amp;parks=mlb">ranked third</a> in MLB in park factors for home runs last year. The Trop ranked 24th.And unlike New York, the temperatures will be warm all season.Will a left-handed hitter like Lowe try to tailor his swing to the ballpark?"I'm not going to change my approach to the short porch," Lowe told theScore earlier this spring. He wound up leaving Friday's opener with an apparent oblique injury.Rays manager Kevin Cash is curious to see if the park plays as offensively friendly as many suspect. He noted that the wind direction and humidity won't be the same as at Yankee Stadium."When the sun goes down, some say the ball doesn't carry as much as other times here," Cash said. "We'll find out a lot in the next couple of weeks."What's also interesting is the typically platoon-heavy Rays might feature a more static lineup.In its season opener against Rockies left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland on Friday, the club had lefty bats Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe in the lineup.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/577097/cropped_GettyImages-1489276815.jpg?ts=1743190916" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/577097/w220xh124_GettyImages-1489276815.jpg?ts=1743190916 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/577097/w320xh180_GettyImages-1489276815.jpg?ts=1743190916 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/577097/w640xh360_GettyImages-1489276815.jpg?ts=1743190916 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/577097/w768xh432_GettyImages-1489276815.jpg?ts=1743190916 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/577097/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1489276815.jpg?ts=1743190916 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Elsa / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Another aspect of the venue change is that it'll more often appear packed even when fewer fans attend. Steinbrenner Field has a capacity of just over 11,000. The Rays averaged 16,515 at The Trop last season, but it always seemed empty. That could change the home-field vibe."Any park that is sold out - that has fans in the seats - is fun to go out and play for. We'll see if that plays," Josh Lowe said.Lastly, the central Tampa location is ideal for Rays fans.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Tampa ballparks" aria-label="Locator map" id="datawrapper-chart-ivzY2" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ivzY2/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="300" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}();
</script></figure>Most of the region's population resides to the east and north of St. Petersburg. Traveling to a Rays game can be a logistical nightmare. There are only a couple of routes that span Tampa Bay to reach it.If Steinbrenner Field is packed this season, could it spark new plans for a project to keep the club in the area but nearer Tampa? MLB commissioner <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3252446" href="https://thescore.com/news/3252446">Rob Manfred wants</a> to keep the team in the region.Maybe a Tampa address doesn't have to be temporary.<h3>Are the Pirates wasting their golden ticket? </h3>Thursday's opener might be an all-too-common script for the Pittsburgh Pirates.Paul Skenes, the club's ace and reigning NL Rookie of the Year, left the game with the lead Thursday. However, miscues by the Pirates in the field - including a misread on a fly ball by inexperienced center fielder Oneil Cruz - and a blow-up by the bullpen wasted the effort in a loss to the lowly Miami Marlins.Andrew McCutchen is the one player in the clubhouse who played for the Pirates' last playoff team in 2015.During the 2013-15 stretch, when Pittsburgh made three straight playoff appearances, it had Gerrit Cole, a No. 1 overall pick, just like Skenes.Those Pirates had a wealth of young pitching behind Cole - Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon - just as these do in Jared Jones (currently on the IL), Bubba Chandler, and Thomas Harrington."If you have it, use it," McCutchen said earlier this spring.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/624325/cropped_GettyImages-2133948718.jpg?ts=1743189160" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/624325/w220xh124_GettyImages-2133948718.jpg?ts=1743189160 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/624325/w320xh180_GettyImages-2133948718.jpg?ts=1743189160 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/624325/w640xh360_GettyImages-2133948718.jpg?ts=1743189160 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/624325/w768xh432_GettyImages-2133948718.jpg?ts=1743189160 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/624325/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2133948718.jpg?ts=1743189160 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Joe Sargent / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>But by 2016, fans were frustrated by the ownership's lack of investment in the club, which could have extended the competitive window.Fans are still frustrated. The Pirates ranked 26th in free-agent spending this winter. Their biggest trade acquisition was adding Spencer Horwitz from the Blue Jays."I do not know how they (the former management) felt, but I felt, 'Let's capitalize. Let's keep going. Let's make a move,'" McCutchen said. "We're right there coming off 98 wins (in 2015). A few other teams were a little better than us, but I felt that team was capable of winning it all. … Obviously, I don't know the other side of it. But it's like, 'Let's build.'"It was there, and then it wasn't. It goes to show you that's baseball," McCutchen said. "It's there one day, and it's gone the next."The Pirates have Skenes under club control for five more seasons. He qualified for a full campaign of service time by winning Rookie of the Year in 2024. After the 2017 season, the Pirates traded Cole two years before he reached free agency.The clock is already ticking in Pittsburgh. <h3>Opening Day jitters </h3>Day 1 could have gone better for Major League Baseball and its fans.For starters, during this transition from cable to streaming platforms for live broadcasts, MLB's streaming app crashed right after games began at 3 p.m. ET. Service for many customers was out for an hour.In some markets where regional sports networks suffered disruptions, final announcements for broadcast distribution on traditional cable TV weren't made until Thursday.It was difficult to access games, and when they resumed, there was so much at once. Rather than spreading contests out throughout the day, most began at 3 p.m. and 4 p.m., with no earlier first pitches.It was odd scheduling, made even more curious, with the campaign starting during the same period as the men's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.MLB's expanded postseason keeps encroaching upon the regular season, pushing regular-season games into late March. Although there was no incredibly poor weather Thursday, it's risky to have teams based in the Midwest and Northeast open at home (Yankees, Reds, Royals).Fourteen clubs play in southern or western locations or under a retractable dome. The Brewers should be hosting a team and not traveling to play in New York in March.The league should ponder some scheduling changes to help its annual entrance feel like a de facto national holiday.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

TAMPA, FL - MARCH 28: A general view of George M. Steinbrenner Field is seen prior to the game between the Colorado Rockies and the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, March 28, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.

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Rays, Pirates stare down different medium-term uncertainties

DUNEDIN, Fla. - Plan A, Juan Soto, didn't materialize in Toronto.  But unlike a year ago when the...

DUNEDIN, Fla. - Plan A, Juan Soto, didn't materialize in Toronto.But unlike a year ago when they missed out on Shohei Ohtani, the Jays aggressively pivoted to Plan B. The front office and ownership can, at least, say they did something at a time when many fan bases suffer through winters of little activity.Only the Mets, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks spent more on players this offseason than the Blue Jays.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>But it's one thing to execute a plan in the offseason. All that matters is how it pays off on the field.<h3>Floor to ceiling</h3>The Blue Jays made a rare, opportunistic addition when they acquired Andrés Giménez in a three-team trade this offseason.Giménez was the only established position player under age 27 to be traded this winter. He owns an outstanding resume: three Gold Gloves (and one Platinum Glove as the best defender league-wide) and an All-Star appearance. He also leads baseball in defensive runs saved since 2022.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777185/cropped_GettyImages-2202416307.jpg?ts=1743020953" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777185/w220xh124_GettyImages-2202416307.jpg?ts=1743020953 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777185/w320xh180_GettyImages-2202416307.jpg?ts=1743020953 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777185/w640xh360_GettyImages-2202416307.jpg?ts=1743020953 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777185/w768xh432_GettyImages-2202416307.jpg?ts=1743020953 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/777185/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2202416307.jpg?ts=1743020953 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Carlson / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Giménez's glove and baserunning skills give him a reliable floor. The key to whether the Jays are merely satisfied with the trade or win it in a big way is if his bat can come anywhere near where it was in 2022 (141 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR). Giménez has excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the problem is he too often swings at pitches he can't do damage with and makes weak contact.Blue Jays manager John Schneider said the team believes there's offensive upside they can tap into."He's so good at handling the bat that there were times where he played it a little safe with the line-drive, contact approach," Schneider said. "The message to him is, 'Be as athletic in the field as you are in the box.' He's got plenty of juice to do that. … Take some shots when he has good counts. I think there is more to unlock."Giménez told theScore he's working on pitch selection to eliminate weak contact. He swung 10% less often in Florida compared to recent seasons to produce a .283/.377/.543 slash line this spring."He's an exciting player, and we're looking forward to the work he's putting in with our coaching staff to help him build on an already impressive young career," Jays general manager Ross Atkins said.Toronto emphasized defense when it couldn't land the bats it wanted. Having Giménez contribute on both sides is important for the team's success.<h3>Spinning gold </h3>Another area of focus will be internal improvement. The Blue Jays hired a new hitting coach, forward-thinking David Popkins, from the Twins in October. Minnesota ranked first in the majors last season in pulled fly balls (473), a batted-ball type that can generate lots of offense.Some rival coaches thought the Blue Jays trailed the industry last year in getting the most out of their major-league bats.But there's evidence of change. Bo Bichette, an all-fields spray hitter for his career, hit four home runs this spring after hitting only four in his injury-shortened 2024 season. He also posted a 44% pull rate in Florida after not reaching 30% in the last four campaigns.Getting more power out of Bichette would be a major development. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771314/cropped_GettyImages-2198939706.jpg?ts=1743020847" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771314/w220xh124_GettyImages-2198939706.jpg?ts=1743020847 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771314/w320xh180_GettyImages-2198939706.jpg?ts=1743020847 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771314/w640xh360_GettyImages-2198939706.jpg?ts=1743020847 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771314/w768xh432_GettyImages-2198939706.jpg?ts=1743020847 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771314/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2198939706.jpg?ts=1743020847 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Carlson / MLB / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>If the Jays can get offensive improvement in the middle of the field from Bichette, Giménez, and center fielder Daulton Varsho, it would go a long way toward beating expectations. The club also needs internal improvement on the mound, including homegrown depth.The Jays hired Justin Lehr to fill a new role as minor-league pitching director. The organization lost seven prospects to Tommy John surgery last year. Homegrown arms combined for just 14.9% of Toronto's innings in 2024. That must change, too.The Blue Jays have state-of-the-art facilities in Dunedin and Toronto, but the key is the human element: having coaches to create effective plans and getting buy-in from players."Everything is moving so quickly," Atkins said. "Even if you are having success, you cannot rest on your process being a good one. The old adage, 'If it's not broken, don't fix it,' is probably not a good approach, meaning you constantly have to be challenging everything to be the best it can possibly be."We are excited about a lot of the additions to our coaching staff, to our front office, to the way we are trying to get information to our coaches and players. We feel very good about the dynamic." <h3>Powering up </h3>The Jays' run differential has trended the wrong way in recent years as the team has pivoted to defense. In 2021, the club posted a plus-183 run differential (fifth in MLB). Last year, it was minus-72 (23rd).Toronto hit more than 100 home runs in 2021 compared to last season (262 to 156).The best teams crush the ball. Since 1995, the AL East champion has averaged a 109.3 OPS+, about 10% better than the league average. It's also recorded 209.2 home runs and 829.7 runs per season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/775085/cropped_GettyImages-2204629695.jpg?ts=1742926747" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/775085/w220xh124_GettyImages-2204629695.jpg?ts=1742926747 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/775085/w320xh180_GettyImages-2204629695.jpg?ts=1742926747 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/775085/w640xh360_GettyImages-2204629695.jpg?ts=1742926747 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/775085/w768xh432_GettyImages-2204629695.jpg?ts=1742926747 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/775085/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2204629695.jpg?ts=1742926747 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Miguel Rodriguez / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Jays have reached those thresholds just twice (2015 and 2021) since 2015.Although Soto signed with the Mets, Toronto managed to land Anthony Santander, who hit 44 home runs with Baltimore last season.The concern regarding Santander is how his power skills will age during the five-year deal. The Jays desperately want to extend their competitive window. Santander is entering his age-30 season. Moreover, there can be a drop-off in the first year of a new deal for position players changing addresses."His level of preparation, the work that goes into him being ready, physically and mentally, is elite," Atkins said. "And that gave us confidence that he will be able to adapt and adjust to stay at a very high level for some time. … Our staff touched base with the various stakeholders around (Santander) - players, trainers, strength coaches, hitting coaches - to verify all the work he puts in. In every conversation, it only strengthened our confidence in signing him."<h3>End game </h3>Games often fell apart when it was close or late for the Blue Jays in 2024. They were 19-30 in one-run contests.Toronto ranked 30th in the majors in bullpen fWAR (minus-2.5) last season and 29th in bullpen ERA (4.82).Only the Rockies posted a worse ERA from their relief group, and only the White Sox bullpen combined for fewer wins above replacement.The Jays added two of the best relievers available this offseason, Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia. The club liked how both miss bats with multiple pitches and are platoon-neutral.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/cropped_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Drew Hallowell / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Toronto believes it addressed its biggest issues from a year ago. But even addressing all of that might not be enough. The AL East is a tough neighborhood.After so much went wrong in 2024, the team needs much to break right this season. The Jays need their rotation to continue to be durable and more productive. They believe Max Scherzer will not only add valuable innings but also bring a competitive edge to the clubhouse. They need Bichette to bounce back and for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to remain an MVP candidate. They need young players like Alan Roden and Will Wagner to produce.If that happens, combined with their offseason plan, there's a path to October.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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The offseason is over. Now the Blue Jays have to make the plan pay off

A year ago, I sat at the No. 13 draft position in a conference room at The Mirage in Las Vegas fo...

A year ago, I sat at the No. 13 draft position in a conference room at The Mirage in Las Vegas for my first live Main Event draft.I was the small fish assigned randomly to a shark tank dubbed "The League of Death" due to the abundance of fantasy legends it held.The league included more than $2 million in National Fantasy Baseball Championship career earnings, five of the NFBC's top 30 money winners, and three overall winners of the Main Event - the NFBC's flagship contest.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Entry fee: $1,800. The overall prize? $200,000 and fantasy baseball immortality. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2877649" href="https://thescore.com/news/2877649">Last year</a>, the League of Death produced a fourth overall Main Event winner: Clark Olson, who sat two chairs down from me in the No. 15 spot during our draft.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622382/cropped_Inside-a-high-stakes-Las-Vegas-fantasy-baseball-draft.jpg?ts=1742503581" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622382/w220xh124_Inside-a-high-stakes-Las-Vegas-fantasy-baseball-draft.jpg?ts=1742503581 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622382/w320xh180_Inside-a-high-stakes-Las-Vegas-fantasy-baseball-draft.jpg?ts=1742503581 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622382/w640xh360_Inside-a-high-stakes-Las-Vegas-fantasy-baseball-draft.jpg?ts=1742503581 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622382/w768xh432_Inside-a-high-stakes-Las-Vegas-fantasy-baseball-draft.jpg?ts=1742503581 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/622382/w1080xh607_Inside-a-high-stakes-Las-Vegas-fantasy-baseball-draft.jpg?ts=1742503581 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Photo illustration by Julian Catalfo / theScore</figcaption></figure>I didn't have much success, though. I finished eighth out of 15 teams in the league and 385th out of 855 teams overall.As we enter MLB's peak fantasy draft weekend, I interviewed the League of Death's top three finishers to learn what they took away from our experience and from 2024 fantasy baseball as a whole.<h3>Lesson No. 1: Run toward fear</h3>One of the best players in NFBC history, Olson was enshrined as the 10th member of the NFBC Hall of Fame last fall.It was no surprise to many NFBC veterans that after such consistent performance - 10 Main Event league titles - Olson finally secured a No. 1 overall finish.The University of Washington computer science professor couldn't have had a better start to the draft, but he had to accept a lot of risk to execute it.The day before our draft last March, news broke of the betting scandal involving Shohei Ohtani's interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara. There was fear among fantasy managers that Ohtani might be involved, and it could have been risky to select him with an early pick.But with the last pick in the first round, Olson still took Ohtani. With his following pick in the snake-draft format - the first pick of the second round - he selected José Ramírez.Shawn Childs, another NFBC Hall of Famer, created a guideline for rotisserie baseball managers: Target 75 combined homers and 75 steals from the first three hitters you draft. How good was Olson's start? Ohtani and Ramírez combined for 93 homers and 100 steals."I know there was some skepticism," Olson said, "but Ohtani is a huge star and unless there was real proof he was betting on baseball … I thought it was unlikely."Olson reminded the fantasy baseball world of investor Warren Buffett's famous axiom: "Be greedy when others are fearful."<h3>Lesson No. 2: Free yourself from FOMO</h3>While some excellent players, like past champion Phil Dussault, create their own projection systems, Olson's valuations largely come from selecting existing projection systems and aggregating their outlooks.Olson possesses the skills to create his own forecasts, but he doubts it would be a worthwhile use of his time. He believes the existing public ones are very good, so his available research hours are better spent elsewhere.When the draft arrives, he stays true to his spreadsheet. He generally doesn't chase players filled with spring helium or get attached to favorites.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748608/cropped_GettyImages-2176974688.jpg?ts=1742500672" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748608/w220xh124_GettyImages-2176974688.jpg?ts=1742500672 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748608/w320xh180_GettyImages-2176974688.jpg?ts=1742500672 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748608/w640xh360_GettyImages-2176974688.jpg?ts=1742500672 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748608/w768xh432_GettyImages-2176974688.jpg?ts=1742500672 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748608/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2176974688.jpg?ts=1742500672 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>While the Ohtani-Ramírez start was one of the best possible outcomes, drafts are often won in the middle rounds. This time was no different: Olson snagged Josh Naylor, Anthony Santander, Willy Adames, and Hunter Greene with his ninth- through 12th-round picks. All four players had career years.Despite largely staying loyal to his spreadsheet values, Olson's nimble; he doesn't always take the top player on his board."One thing I do at each pick is ask, 'Who is kind of unique at that spot?'" Olson said. "Whether it's a particular position, or stat, or one guy that is left that does something really well that won't be available later."<h3>Lesson No. 3: Simplify </h3>Lindy Hinkelman is another Yoda-like Hall of Famer. He's the only player to win two Main Event titles in NFBC history.The retired pig farmer lives 100 yards from where he grew up in Greencreek, Idaho, (population 211) listening to Dodgers games on AM radio as a kid.Farming might not seem to have much crossover with fantasy baseball, but it involves a surprising amount of accounting, from taking inventory of supplies to tracking the growth rates and production of offspring from various gene pools. Every piglet is a prospect.Hinkelman had the No. 1 draft position in our league last year and took the consensus top player available, Ronald Acuña Jr., who was coming off a season of 41 homers and 73 steals.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637087/cropped_GettyImages-2161816751.jpg?ts=1742505500" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637087/w220xh124_GettyImages-2161816751.jpg?ts=1742505500 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637087/w320xh180_GettyImages-2161816751.jpg?ts=1742505500 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637087/w640xh360_GettyImages-2161816751.jpg?ts=1742505500 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637087/w768xh432_GettyImages-2161816751.jpg?ts=1742505500 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637087/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2161816751.jpg?ts=1742505500 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Gregory Shamus / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Hinkelman was able to grind out a second-place finish in the league even though Acuña's season ended in May. Drafting Tarik Skubal and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Rounds 2 and 3 didn't hurt.His chief lesson: Don't dig too far into the weeds. "You can paralyze yourself" by absorbing too much data, he said.For hitters, Hinkelman combines runs and RBIs and then divides them by at bats."That's my big go-to," Hinkelman said. "The better hitters are always up there, 0.3 runs (per at bat)." He does something similar for home runs and RBIs.Hinkelman said he evaluates pitchers using K-BB%, swinging-strike rates, and ERA estimators."Just the basic stuff," he said. "I don't get too carried away with all the new stuff and the new abbreviations. I don't even know what they mean."And while many fantasy managers stare at their laptop screens, Hinkelman drafts from a handwritten list.Keep it simple. <h3>Lesson No. 4: Show restraint</h3>James Tomony, who finished third in our league, is an excellent player who won the Main Event title in 2020.The Madison, Wisconsin, psychologist points out that no one wins the season on draft day."Not only do you have to crush the draft, but you have to kick ass on the waiver wire to win an overall," Tomony said.The NFBC Main Event format doesn't allow trades between teams. Instead, there's an auction for free agents every Sunday night. Managers have $1,000 in fake money over the course of the season to offer free-agent players.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742039/cropped_GettyImages-2166782782.jpg?ts=1724279366" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742039/w220xh124_GettyImages-2166782782.jpg?ts=1724279366 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742039/w320xh180_GettyImages-2166782782.jpg?ts=1724279366 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742039/w640xh360_GettyImages-2166782782.jpg?ts=1724279366 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742039/w768xh432_GettyImages-2166782782.jpg?ts=1724279366 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742039/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2166782782.jpg?ts=1724279366 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Blake Snell was dropped in just two of the 57 Main Event individual leagues last year after his early struggles. Our league was one of them, and if Olson's roster had a weakness, it was starting pitching.Sure, he was fortunate - but he was also in a position to take advantage. Olson had the highest remaining free-agent budget at the time, which allowed him to make the winning offer for Snell."I think (Olson) was first overall, but the one area he needed shoring up was saves and starting pitching," Tomony recalled. "I was the runner-up bid at $239 or $240. At the time I was No. 1 in our league in strikeouts. I didn't realize how low (Snell's) WHIP would be. I didn't have as huge a need."Olson was wise to wait for the right target. Restraint is often a virtue. <h3>Lesson No. 5: Look out for high-level trends</h3>All three League of Death members I spoke with agreed on one major recent shift: Speed remains available later in drafts and on the waiver wire because of MLB rule changes that have increased steals.Olson was able to target the best hitters available in the middle rounds and then add more speed through waiver-wire pickups like Marlins shortstop Xavier Edwards.It's important to notice when these macro-level changes occur and figure out how to take advantage.While speed is more plentiful, hitters who produce home runs and batting average are becoming more rare.<h3>Lesson No. 6: Evolve</h3>Even as a top player, Olson admits he's trying to break some bad habits."I write the same note to myself every year. In all caps this year: 'When are you going to learn to avoid injured players?'" he said. Another written reminder to himself from last year: "Spend less on (free-agent budget) rookie call-ups."Hinkelman is considering placing more weight on catchers and closers after generally devaluing them.On top of wrestling with personal biases and weaknesses, Tomony notes that fantasy managers also have to adjust to rule changes, macro trends, positional strengths, or even the state of the baseball."Part of the takeaway (from 2024) is this is a challenging hobby, and it's very humbling," Tomony said. "You're trying to put together giant jigsaw puzzles and there are moving parts every year."Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Fantasy baseball lessons from the League of Death

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Paul Skenes in Year 2: Rethinking what's possible

DUNEDIN, Fla. - Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider was taken aback during an exhibition con...

DUNEDIN, Fla. - Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider was taken aback during an exhibition contest earlier this spring. He couldn't believe who Sportsnet selected for an in-game interview."I was giving Hazel (Mae), Buck (Martinez) and Dan (Shulman) a little bit of crap," Schneider said following the game. "No. 83 in a midgame interview? I guess they didn't want to talk to Bo or Vlad."Players wearing 83 don't generate much media interest in the spring. Players don't usually get their pick of numbers until a team adds them to the 40-man roster.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>But Alan Roden is making 83 noticeable in the Blue Jays camp.The outfield prospect is hitting .412 with two home runs and has struck out just once in 25 plate appearances entering play Thursday.For a team needing internally developed impact players, Roden appears MLB-ready with a mature approach at the plate, elite contact skills (93% zone contact in Triple-A last year), surprising athleticism, and burgeoning power. The Jays haven't drafted an impact position player since Bo Bichette in 2016.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773933/cropped_GettyImages-2202412579.jpg?ts=1741710852" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773933/w220xh124_GettyImages-2202412579.jpg?ts=1741710852 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773933/w320xh180_GettyImages-2202412579.jpg?ts=1741710852 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773933/w640xh360_GettyImages-2202412579.jpg?ts=1741710852 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773933/w768xh432_GettyImages-2202412579.jpg?ts=1741710852 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773933/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2202412579.jpg?ts=1741710852 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Carlson / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>What more does Schneider want to see next from Roden? "Well, he's doing interviews in the middle of games," quipped Schneider, who went on to praise his strike-zone awareness and swing decisions.Roden's standing in the organization recently rocketed from a relatively unknown third-round pick out of Creighton in 2022 to becoming Baseball America's No. 8 prospect in the Jays' system entering the spring.He opened eyes when he slashed .317/.430/.459 with 10 homers and 24 steals in 2023 while playing at High-A and Double-A.Roden followed that up with a .293/.391/.475 slash line at Double-A and Triple-A last season.That Roden is getting the most of his 5-foot-10, short-armed frame shouldn't be surprising. He's one of the brightest players in the system and likely the only professional baseball player who studied astrophysics in college.At Creighton, his academic research focused on quasars, supermassive black holes found at the center of galaxies."I ran simulations and did some data collection, real data, and compared the two," Roden said as I nodded, feigning understanding. "I tried to figure out what the accretion method was."Was his passion for deep space the subject of discussion during minor-league bus rides?"You say a couple of sentences, and you get a 'Cool man,'" Roden said.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/774848/cropped_GettyImages-2187745788.jpg?ts=1741799483" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/774848/w220xh124_GettyImages-2187745788.jpg?ts=1741799483 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/774848/w320xh180_GettyImages-2187745788.jpg?ts=1741799483 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/774848/w640xh360_GettyImages-2187745788.jpg?ts=1741799483 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/774848/w768xh432_GettyImages-2187745788.jpg?ts=1741799483 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/774848/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2187745788.jpg?ts=1741799483 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">Alan Roden exhibiting his leg kick with Double-A New Hampshire last season. Diamond Images / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>What did grab the Jays' attention was the mature approach he demonstrated at Creighton. Roden has since added more power to his bat, boosting his profile. Part of that growth was to add a leg kick to his swing in 2023. He responded with double-digit home runs - a level he never reached in college.Has his physics background helped in this era of tracking everything swing and batted ball?"It allows me to think about things in a way others might not, or a majority might not," Roden said. "It allows you to think about angles at contact with your swing, what angles are you hitting the ball at."Roden's father, Eric, teaches biogeochemistry at the University of Wisconsin. His mother, Matilde Urrutia, now retired, studied soil sciences.While he didn't follow his parents into agricultural science, they taught him to be process-oriented and data based.For instance, Roden doubled his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio last year as he learned to optimize his batted-ball outcomes better in the second year of a swing overhaul."I think just ball-striking, shaping the ball off bat," Roden said of his most important skill improvement last year. "Even when you're hitting it hard, where is it going? Instead of pulling it hard on the ground, you get some of those in the air."Roden is also better at zeroing in on pitches he can punish, which helps him add power. He does his most damage against breaking balls down in the zone. And he's trying to become less vulnerable to fastballs above the zone, one of the few holes in his swing.Roden might be a long shot to break camp, but his rocket-like trajectory suggests a debut is imminent.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 28: Alan Roden #83 of the Toronto Blue Jays at bat in the fourth inning during a spring training game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 28, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.

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For the Blue Jays, this prospect's trajectory is out of this world

Who is more to blame for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract situation? The team or the player?  The...

Who is more to blame for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract situation? The team or the player?The two sides failed to reach an agreement on an extension by the deadline Guerrero imposed at the start of spring training, and they now face a season in which uncertainty looms over the horizon.Both parties said the right things when the deadline passed, but that was before reports by Sportsnet and the New York Post <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3239777" href="https://thescore.com/news/3239777">uncovered the details</a> of the Blue Jays' offer. The club presented Guerrero with a deal for $500 million with deferrals, equalling a present-day value approaching $450 million. It would have been the third-largest contract in MLB history, trailing only those of Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, meanwhile, reported Guerrero's demand of $500 million without deferrals.Assuming talks don't re-open before he enters free agency, Guerrero will walk because of a $50-million difference that would have been spread over more than a decade.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771490/cropped_GettyImages-2174753672.jpg?ts=1741816703" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771490/w220xh124_GettyImages-2174753672.jpg?ts=1741816703 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771490/w320xh180_GettyImages-2174753672.jpg?ts=1741816703 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771490/w640xh360_GettyImages-2174753672.jpg?ts=1741816703 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771490/w768xh432_GettyImages-2174753672.jpg?ts=1741816703 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771490/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2174753672.jpg?ts=1741816703 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Steve Russell / Toronto Star / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>We now know it can't be claimed the Jays and parent Rogers Communications were not serious. But once the two sides got as close as they did, shouldn't the Jays have been willing to go the extra mile to secure the services of the player who has become the face of the franchise and is the top positional player to come through their farm system this century?The Jays had seemingly put aside concerns about the diminishing value of first basemen over the last decade. The offer to Guerrero was more than double that of the biggest contracts ever awarded to free-agent first basemen - Albert Pujols' 10-year, $240-million contract and Prince Fielder's nine-year, $214-million deal. Both were signed in 2012. The biggest extension to any first baseman was the eight-year, $248-million pact Miguel Cabrera signed with Detroit in 2014.Putting positional considerations aside, Toronto's offer was in line with the market rate for superstars. For Juan Soto's $765-million contract, the ratio of contract dollars to his last three seasons of fWAR (17.8) is 43. For Guerrero (10.1 WAR), using the present-day value of the offer ($450 million), the ratio would have been 44.6.The negotiation process with Guerrero was likely not helped by the club's courtship of Ohtani and Soto in back-to-back offseasons. Reports were that it made competitive offers close to the value of the final deal. But those players have been demonstrably more productive than Guerrero, and the Jays ultimately did make a legitimate top-of-market offer.The Blue Jays' <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3164649" href="https://thescore.com/news/3164649">biggest mistake</a> was not making an offer too good to refuse earlier in Guerrero's career.It won't feel good for Jays fans or the front office if Guerrero plays in another uniform next year, but not all the blame can be assigned to the club.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771253/cropped_GettyImages-2033510500.jpg?ts=1741810227" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771253/w220xh124_GettyImages-2033510500.jpg?ts=1741810227 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771253/w320xh180_GettyImages-2033510500.jpg?ts=1741810227 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771253/w640xh360_GettyImages-2033510500.jpg?ts=1741810227 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771253/w768xh432_GettyImages-2033510500.jpg?ts=1741810227 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/771253/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2033510500.jpg?ts=1741810227 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>One can argue Guerrero is being irrational by taking on asymmetric risk. Major injury is a risk for every player. There's also performance risk, and Guerrero has been an erratic producer in his career.He's coming off his best season since 2021, but he might need to repeat it, or better it, to top $500 million on the open market. He can't afford another campaign like his 2022 and 2023 seasons if he's chasing half a billion dollars.We can't know all of Guerrero's motivations. Beyond the bottom line, he might want to play in a different location or with a club that he believes has a better long-term championship outlook.Sure, the Blue Jays could have tried harder to bridge the gap, but in turning down an offer of generational wealth, Guerrero is placing an irrational amount of risk on his 2025 season.It's a potential lose-lose situation, with each party bearing some responsibility.The Jays could lose the face of the franchise, while Guerrero could end up signing for something less than the club offered.To remove those risks, a gap of $50 million over a decade or more does not seem insurmountable. In fact, it seems irrational.Guerrero's deadline was an arbitrary line in the sand. What's stopping both sides from reopening talks for a day and meeting in the middle - $475 million in present-day dollars. Who would say no to that?Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Guerrero gulf: Both sides unnecessarily risking everything

If you're a fantasy baseball nerd like me, you likely spend some time examining FanGraphs player ...

If you're a fantasy baseball nerd like me, you likely spend some time examining FanGraphs player pages. Over time, you might have noticed that the number of projections for each player multiplied.The forecasts on the individual player pages are highlighted in green below the players' yearly historical performance records. The projections often occupy more rows than the annual output.There are now eight projection forecasts for each player, and that's just at FanGraphs, which doesn't include the dozens of other forecasts floating around the internet.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Don't get me wrong, I love forecasts. They're useful tools, and a lot of work goes into creating them. But you may have noticed that many of them produce similar results.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773963/cropped_Screenshot_2025-03-07_at_2.48.47_PM.jpg?ts=1741377396" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773963/w220xh124_Screenshot_2025-03-07_at_2.48.47_PM.jpg?ts=1741377396 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773963/w320xh180_Screenshot_2025-03-07_at_2.48.47_PM.jpg?ts=1741377396 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773963/w640xh360_Screenshot_2025-03-07_at_2.48.47_PM.jpg?ts=1741377396 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773963/w768xh432_Screenshot_2025-03-07_at_2.48.47_PM.jpg?ts=1741377396 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773963/w1080xh607_Screenshot_2025-03-07_at_2.48.47_PM.jpg?ts=1741377396 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> FanGraphs</figcaption></figure>Consider Aaron Judge's forecast for 2025 (shown above). The following are his projected home runs, runs, RBIs, steals, and batting average - the five rotisserie baseball categories at FanGraphs:<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Judge projections 2025" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-86HOJ" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/86HOJ/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="302" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>The first seven lines are powered by four systems: Steamer, ZiPS, ATC, and The Bat, and variations of those systems adjusted by playing time or slightly different inputs. The near uniformity applies not just to Judge but to many players.However, there's an outlier in the newest projection system published by FanGraphs called OOPSY. It projects Judge's output at significantly higher rates than the others.When its creator, Jordan Rosenblum, introduced his system through a blog post on FanGraphs earlier this year, one commentator described it as "the crazy uncle" of projection forecasts.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773992/cropped_60476_jordan_rosenblum.jpg?ts=1741384203" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773992/w220xh124_60476_jordan_rosenblum.jpg?ts=1741384203 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773992/w320xh180_60476_jordan_rosenblum.jpg?ts=1741384203 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773992/w640xh360_60476_jordan_rosenblum.jpg?ts=1741384203 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773992/w768xh432_60476_jordan_rosenblum.jpg?ts=1741384203 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773992/w1080xh607_60476_jordan_rosenblum.jpg?ts=1741384203 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Supplied</figcaption></figure>"I thought that was pretty funny," Rosenblum told me in February.He wasn't insulted. He wanted his system to be different.Rosenblum became interested in fantasy sports as a competitive outlet with his friends while in high school in New Jersey. He was always interested in statistics, earning his business degree at the University of Maryland before picking up a master's degree in public policy at Syddansk University in Denmark. That's where Rosenblum met his wife, who he followed to Finland.He jokes that he really moved to Finland, where he's pursuing a doctorate in social policy at Åbo Akademi University, to gain a time-zone advantage for free-agent pickups in his Yahoo! fantasy league.To understand why OOPSY is different, let's understand how other projection systems converged.Rosenblum explained that most systems have the same underlying ingredients. That makes sense because those ingredients are tried, tested, and useful.Some assumptions and inputs will vary, but systems generally consider a player's historical performance, weighing recent performance more heavily, and then compare Player X to players like him at that age in baseball history. Some systems may apply an aging curve model to assess how performance may grow or decay. Playing time is estimated, ballpark factors are often added, and numbers are regressed to the league average.The last idea helps draw the projections into a narrow range. "People get annoyed when there is too much regression to the mean," Rosenblum said.These systems rely on major-league performance history and can adapt slowly to new information.Systems generally have more trouble projecting rookies and foreign professionals making their MLB debuts. And when new data emerges, projection creators typically want time to study it to determine whether it's predictive.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773549/cropped_GettyImages-2203350108.jpg?ts=1741369444" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773549/w220xh124_GettyImages-2203350108.jpg?ts=1741369444 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773549/w320xh180_GettyImages-2203350108.jpg?ts=1741369444 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773549/w640xh360_GettyImages-2203350108.jpg?ts=1741369444 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773549/w768xh432_GettyImages-2203350108.jpg?ts=1741369444 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773549/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2203350108.jpg?ts=1741369444 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brandon Sloter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Rosenblum wondered if there was a way to make a projection system that was more nimble and quicker to adjust to meaningful changes, even if those changes came within small samples."My preferred approach is to look for variables that capture signal more quickly," he said.Creating such a system would benefit not only season-long projections - which are important for fantasy owners in their draft preparation - but also weekly projections - which are critical for guidance when setting lineups.Like other systems, OOPSY uses players' historical performance and aging curves, regresses to league averages, and adjusts for ballparks. Rosenblum researched other systems and dove into the work of analytics pioneer Tom Tango. One Tango finding stuck with him: aging effects are generally twice as steep on the way up as they are on the way down.To create a more responsive, dynamic projection, Rosenblum searched for "sticky" skills that don't need a large sample to become meaningful.He began statistically testing his assumptions and how much impact they had on performance. One big difference with OOPSY is that it includes swing speed, a new skill measure released last year by MLB's Statcast system.OOPSY's inclusion of swing speed helps explain, in part, projections like Judge's, as well as more polarizing ones, such as <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/giancarlo-stanton/4949/stats?position=DH/OF">Giancarlo Stanton</a>'s (before his spring injury)."The good thing about adding in these really sticky measures like barrel rate and swing speed, which only take a few swings to show its true self or stabilize, is they allow you to be more bullish at the extremes," Rosenblum said. "OOPSY can kinda stick its neck out more. If you look at (Shohei) Ohtani, (Ronald) Acuña, and Yordan Alvarez, I am kind of more bullish on all of these guys because of the bat speed, because of the barrel rate."The more we can capture that signal, if the projections account for stuff like that, then they can better differentiate between really good and average players. … It's not like I'm assuming a higher league average. My average wRC is the same as Depth Charts or Steamer. (OOPSY) seems to be better able to distinguish between the elite and average dudes."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741683/cropped_GettyImages-2165320159.jpg?ts=1741369477" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741683/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165320159.jpg?ts=1741369477 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741683/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165320159.jpg?ts=1741369477 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741683/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165320159.jpg?ts=1741369477 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741683/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165320159.jpg?ts=1741369477 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/741683/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165320159.jpg?ts=1741369477 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jack Gorman / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>OOPSY gets its first public test this season. In the <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yet-another-projection-system-a-brief-introduction-to-oopsy/">introduction post</a> on FanGraphs, titled "Yet Another Projection System," Rosenblum explained why the baseball world needed another forecast and how he arrived at a name."OOPSY is a fake acronym, an homage to making errors while playing the infield growing up, and to making mistakes more generally, the fallibility of humankind," Rosenblum wrote. "It aims to stay humble, to be transparent about the fact that projection systems are built upon different assumptions."Projections will never be perfect. What we hope for is that forecasters keep refining their processes and assumptions, try to be a little less wrong, and inch closer to predicting the future.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30553397/related

OOPSY! Baseball's newest - and most optimistic - player projection system

TAMPA, Fla. - In the third inning of the Grapefruit League opener on Feb. 21, Tampa Bay catcher B...

TAMPA, Fla. - In the third inning of the Grapefruit League opener on Feb. 21, Tampa Bay catcher Ben Rortvedt caught a full-count pitch from Eric Orze. The pitch to Yankees' Jazz Chisholm Jr. crossed the plate letter high and was called a ball.MLB's great experiment was about to begin in Florida.Rortvedt tapped his helmet, the signal to challenge the call, and home plate umpire Sean Barber stopped play. ABS was being called upon for an appeal.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>For the first time in MLB, ball-tracking technology is making some ball-strike decisions during spring exhibition games. The move paves the way for one of the most radical changes in major-league history: so-called robot umps making ball-strike calls in real games.MLB is currently testing a challenge system instead of full automation. Should it go well, the league could adopt the challenge system in the regular season as early as 2026.Teams are each allotted two challenges during games played this spring in the 13 Arizona and Florida stadiums outfitted with Statcast pitch-tracking technology. The challenges can be made only by the batter, catcher, or pitcher. The dugout can't initiate one.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773277/cropped_GettyImages-2200054895.jpg?ts=1741039035" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773277/w220xh124_GettyImages-2200054895.jpg?ts=1741039035 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773277/w320xh180_GettyImages-2200054895.jpg?ts=1741039035 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773277/w640xh360_GettyImages-2200054895.jpg?ts=1741039035 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773277/w768xh432_GettyImages-2200054895.jpg?ts=1741039035 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/773277/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2200054895.jpg?ts=1741039035 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Michael Owens / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The challenges are designed to be decided quickly. In minor-league testing of this system in recent seasons, challenges averaged <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/automated-ball-strike-calls-mlb-spring-games">17 seconds</a>, according to MLB.There's also no examining video from the dugout or clubhouse to aid challenge decisions.Opinions vary so far, but players generally like being able to avoid having games turn on umpires' mistakes."When an umpire is missing 10 calls a game, it might be funny for fans, but it's not funny for us," Braves catcher Curt Casali said. "I know (umpires) are doing their best, but they are humans. They are going to miss calls. The difference in missing a strike or a ball could be the difference between a win or loss. I am all for us to have some ability to challenge ourselves and take control of our own at-bats. ... It would be a welcomed change."After Rortvedt's challenge on Feb. 21, which took 32 seconds to complete, the replay showed the pitch missed the zone badly, perhaps by six inches. It was such a poor challenge that Rays manager Kevin Cash laughed in the dugout."He did a nice job," Cash quipped afterward. "Missed it by two feet."Rortvedt said, "It's good just to get some feedback on the actual ABS zone and kind of see actually where things line up. ... Seeing actual pitches that cross home plate and how it's going to be done was pretty cool."Some players in camps have experience with the automated system from the minor leagues. For many, though, it marks their first exposure to what might soon be in place in major-league games.One of the biggest adjustments is that the zone called by umpires isn't a rectangle and tends to bulge in the middle. MLB research also found that the human strike zone tightens from 550 square inches in a 3-0 count to 412 square inches in a 0-2 count. ABS zones will be about 443 square inches for a player of average height.Additionally, human umps are generally more lenient toward pitchers."It's a different zone, and we have to get used to it," Pirates designated hitter Andrew McCutchen said.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761963/cropped_GettyImages-2185198406.jpg?ts=1741039129" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761963/w220xh124_GettyImages-2185198406.jpg?ts=1741039129 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761963/w320xh180_GettyImages-2185198406.jpg?ts=1741039129 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761963/w640xh360_GettyImages-2185198406.jpg?ts=1741039129 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761963/w768xh432_GettyImages-2185198406.jpg?ts=1741039129 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/761963/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2185198406.jpg?ts=1741039129 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Diamond Images / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Pitchers' <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-are-minor-league-pitchers-walking-so-many-batters/">walk rates ballooned</a> when various ABS approaches (full and challenge systems) arrived in the minor leagues in recent campaigns, according to Baseball America. At Triple-A in 2023, pitchers' walk rates spiked to 12%, the highest percentage in at least 60 seasons.Of course, MLB could always tweak the zone's dimensions if it was too favorable to hitters. This spring, the zone's top-most boundary is 53.5% of a player's height, and the bottom of the zone is 27% of a player's height.(Players were measured without cleats, standing straight up, by an independent training staff this spring and cross-checked by biomechanical assessments, according to MLB.)While the system is more favorable for hitters, McCutchen said the benefits go beyond a tighter zone."I don't want full (ABS), but I like the challenge system," McCutchen said. "The challenge system is good because, eventually, the umpires will know the strike zone a little better. There is obviously some accountability for them, too. At the end of the day, that's what players want: we want accountability."You will see the umpires lock in more, which is what the guys say in Triple-A. The atrocious call that is not even close, they are not calling it. They are locking it in for 200 pitches. If they are missing it, it's going to be barely (off the plate). We are starting to see that already in these guys with a challenge system."McCutchen is correct. The rate of missed calls within the strike zone declined early this spring.The percentage of strikes called on pitches outside the zone dropped to 5.6% entering play Tuesday, a decrease from 7.2% last year and a Statcast-era low.Called balls on pitches in the zone is 12%, down 0.6 points from last year's mark. That's another Statcast-era low for spring training games.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Umpire missed-call rates" aria-label="Multiple Lines" id="datawrapper-chart-MC8lP" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MC8lP/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="337" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620879/cropped_GettyImages-1253363591.jpg?ts=1741038973" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620879/w220xh124_GettyImages-1253363591.jpg?ts=1741038973 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620879/w320xh180_GettyImages-1253363591.jpg?ts=1741038973 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620879/w640xh360_GettyImages-1253363591.jpg?ts=1741038973 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620879/w768xh432_GettyImages-1253363591.jpg?ts=1741038973 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/620879/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1253363591.jpg?ts=1741038973 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rich Schultz / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Catchers are most sensitive to any change in how umpires call the zone because it disrupts their ability to frame pitches and get favorable results on marginal calls."As a hitter, I want ABS. As a catcher, I do not necessarily want it," Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto said. "It takes some of the art form of catching away. … It seems like it is devaluing the catching position."Realmuto also wants a more limited challenge system over full automation.With the challenge system, "you can still work pitches on the edges and steal some," Realmuto said. "Batters do not always know if it's that far outside, so they will not challenge it. It keeps some of the art of framing and presentation as part of the game."If we get full ABS, catch-and-throw will be most important, blocking will be more important. It would change the position." <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637682/cropped_GettyImages-2155081301.jpg?ts=1741039097" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637682/w220xh124_GettyImages-2155081301.jpg?ts=1741039097 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637682/w320xh180_GettyImages-2155081301.jpg?ts=1741039097 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637682/w640xh360_GettyImages-2155081301.jpg?ts=1741039097 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637682/w768xh432_GettyImages-2155081301.jpg?ts=1741039097 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637682/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2155081301.jpg?ts=1741039097 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Players say the challenge system will add elements to strategy. Teams get two challenges per game but can be right unlimited times. They only lose challenges when they're wrong. So, how early in the game will teams be willing to risk the first challenge?"You don't want to use it in the first inning in a 0-0 count," Pirates backup catcher Jason Delay said. "You want to use it in counts that are more advantageous. ... In game-planning, you want one available for the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. Use that first one, hold off, keep one in your back pocket."We are still learning." There's also the question of which players should be allowed to use challenges - only key players or players who are good at judging the strike zone.To avoid any assistance from the dugout or elsewhere, MLB is experimenting with broadcasters to remove the strike zone from some telecasts.However, McCutchen believes removing the box from all broadcasts would make the game more entertaining if and when the system is implemented in the regular season. That way, fans can play along and second-guess calls.While the technology might not be 100% today, it's likely far better than umpires' current accuracy rates on non-swing calls. The ABS is already creating more accountability.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30491747/related

MLB players have met the robot strike zone. How's it going?

Would you be interested in a player who hits like Luis Arraez but can run like Billy Hamilton? Th...

Would you be interested in a player who hits like Luis Arraez but can run like Billy Hamilton? That would be must-see TV, right?The Tampa Bay Rays just might have such a player in prospect Chandler Simpson.There's a growing buzz around Simpson in Grapefruit League play. He's one of the fastest professional baseball players with blazing 80-grade speed. He told theScore he ran a 60-yard dash in 6.3 seconds.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Simpson stole 104 bases in the minor leagues last year, the first major- or minor-league player to break the century mark since Hamilton in 2012. He's also an efficient base-stealer with an 87% success rate in his pro career.Unlike speedsters such as Hamilton or Esteury Ruiz, Simpson can hit. Former major leaguer Marquis Grissom, who trains several players, including Simpson, in the offseason, calls Simpson "little Tony Gwynn" because of his ability to make contact. Simpson compiled a .351 batting average in 358 plate appearances in Double-A last season.Out of the 1,140 qualified batters across affiliated minor-league baseball last year, Simpson had the 13th-best <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&amp;level=0&amp;lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32&amp;stats=bat&amp;qual=y&amp;type=1&amp;team=&amp;season=2024&amp;seasonEnd=2024&amp;org=&amp;ind=0&amp;splitTeam=false&amp;players=&amp;sort=6,-1&amp;pageitems=2000000000&amp;pg=0">strikeout rate</a> (8.5%). His mark ranked third among players who advanced past Low A.The downside is he has little power: Simpson has one home run in 921 career minor-league at-bats.But even weak contact can be productive when you run like Simpson.In the club's first spring game on Feb. 21, he tapped a slow ground ball down the first-base line. Yankees first baseman T.J. Rumfield had to move in to retrieve the ball, which opened the door for Simpson to beat out the grounder <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=ac9f9e40-fbaf-48b1-9324-34d5688a0ae4">for a hit</a>."His teammates told the story as it was unfolding," Rays manager Kevin Cash said of the play. "If he hits a ball that makes the first baseman move like he did … he's safe. We are seeing firsthand that he can really move."<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/chandler-simpson-steals-second-base?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share" width="560" height="315"></iframe></figure><figure class="article-segment--embed"><center>MLB Film Room</center></figure>That infield single essentially became a double as Simpson proceeded to steal second base. "I feel like I am in scoring position when I touch first base," Simpson told theScore. But he makes more than low-quality contact. His line-drive percentage ranked in the 79th percentile in the minors last year. Prior to his infield single on Feb. 21, he laced a line drive to right field for a single.While the Gwynn comp from a former major leaguer should open eyes, Simpson said he's modeling his game after a contemporary player: Arraez.Simpson studies Arraez's plate appearances and social-media videos of his practice routines."Obviously, our bodies move differently. I try to cater to me," Simpson said. But a lot of things, like keeping his head on the ball in tee drills or soft toss, or staying on my back leg, I implement in my swing."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/630173/cropped_GettyImages-2154231136.jpg?ts=1740758625" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/630173/w220xh124_GettyImages-2154231136.jpg?ts=1740758625 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/630173/w320xh180_GettyImages-2154231136.jpg?ts=1740758625 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/630173/w640xh360_GettyImages-2154231136.jpg?ts=1740758625 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/630173/w768xh432_GettyImages-2154231136.jpg?ts=1740758625 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/630173/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2154231136.jpg?ts=1740758625 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Dylan Buell / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>While baseball today is focused on launch angle and exit velocities, that's not Simpson's optimal game. He wants to hit the ball on the ground, line drives, anything but infield pop-ups and lazy fly balls. "(Arraez) hits everything between minus-10 (degrees), zero, and 10 degrees," Simpson said.Should Simpson earn a call-up to the majors this year, FanGraphs' Steamer projects him to be league average (101 wRC+ in about 100 plate appearances). Simpson had a 141 wRC+ across two levels of the minors last season.That projection is far better than Hamilton's career mark (66 wRC+) or Ruiz's (82 wRC+) to date. The last player to reach 100 steals in the majors, Vince Coleman, posted an 86 wRC+ career mark and only twice exceeded a 100 wRC+ in a season.Simpson, the 70th overall pick in the 2022 draft, was an infielder at Georgia Tech but is improving his ability to play center field.His outfield routine is tied to what he calls "power shagging" during batting practice, which is playing center and tracking fly balls as if he were in a game, in addition to other defensive drills. Simpson made two diving catches against the Red Sox during a three-inning stretch on Feb. 24.He looks to have the speed and body control of a wide receiver. Did Georgia Tech football coaches ever persuade him to play football?"Nah, nah, I can't play football," the 6-foot, 170-pound Simpson said. "They would have killed me out there. I never played football." Cash has curbed some of the enthusiasm around Simpson since he hasn't yet played above Double-A. But the expectations are that he'll arrive in Tampa Bay this year, and his legs are a good bet to make an impact. An Arraez with 80-grade speed would be a star.<h3>Painter plan</h3>Stephen Strasburg wasn't happy when the Washington Nationals shut him down in early September 2012 to manage his innings in his first full year following Tommy John surgery.Strasburg was the most talented pitcher on what would be a 98-win team and wasn't available in the postseason when the Nationals lost in the division series. Many second-guessed Washington's decision to shut him down.Innings caps are a reality of the game today. But perhaps it's time to think differently about managing those limited innings from young star pitchers.The Philadelphia Phillies face a similar dilemma this season with prospect Andrew Painter, who's entering his first full year after Tommy John surgery.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/565163/cropped_GettyImages-1472199671.jpg?ts=1740758395" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/565163/w220xh124_GettyImages-1472199671.jpg?ts=1740758395 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/565163/w320xh180_GettyImages-1472199671.jpg?ts=1740758395 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/565163/w640xh360_GettyImages-1472199671.jpg?ts=1740758395 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/565163/w768xh432_GettyImages-1472199671.jpg?ts=1740758395 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/565163/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1472199671.jpg?ts=1740758395 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Painter told theScore he has a cap of about 100 innings.But rather than burn through the frames in the first half of the season, Painter, who's throwing two bullpens a week now, isn't expected to debut until "July-ish" at the MLB level, club president Dave Dombrowski said. That means Philadelphia will have Painter's rare combination of velocity, command, and feel for spin available when the games matter most."There were three options: start on time and hit the limit, and you're done like Strasburg," Painter said, "or start on time and midway through the year … have (a break). But I feel like once you get going, you just want to keep going."Or once you are off the leash, you get to go compete."Everyone agreed on Plan C.Painter was likely to start late regardless because he pitched in the Arizona Fall League, where he was dominant and hit 100 mph but averaged 94 to 98 mph with his fastball.Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham said Painter will slowly ramp from the seven-day throwing plan he's on now to a six-day and then a typical five-day routine. Painter will be assigned to a minor-league affiliate after time in extended spring training.Cotham said the club will consider Painter's overall workload, not just his frames pitched, which could affect the final range of his innings this year.If the plan works, it could be a new model for how contenders handle innings caps.<h3>The Red Sox machine</h3>The Boston Red Sox are drawing rave reviews for their collection of elite hitting prospects pushing to make early MLB debuts this season.It's incredibly rare for a club to have two prospects (Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell) reside in the top five of Baseball America's top 100 list. And Marcelo Mayer isn't far behind at No. 15. In fact, the Red Sox internal evaluations suggest Mayer has the most future value, especially if he remains at shortstop.Boston picked Mayer early in the first round, but Anthony was a second-rounder, and Campbell was a fourth-rounder. Their collective rise is why some believe the Red Sox are building the best hitting development system in the game, led by former Driveline baseball hitting guru Jason Ochart.The Red Sox have implemented a data-driven approach to hitting and are employing all the advanced technology they can get their hands on. Their scouting and training regimens are paying off.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772772/cropped_GettyImages-2201156948.jpg?ts=1740758561" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772772/w220xh124_GettyImages-2201156948.jpg?ts=1740758561 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772772/w320xh180_GettyImages-2201156948.jpg?ts=1740758561 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772772/w640xh360_GettyImages-2201156948.jpg?ts=1740758561 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772772/w768xh432_GettyImages-2201156948.jpg?ts=1740758561 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772772/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2201156948.jpg?ts=1740758561 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">Mayer Boston Globe / Getty</figcaption></figure>The arrival of the prospects puts a crunch on the major-league roster, which also added newly signed veteran Alex Bregman into the mix.Several evaluators believe that if the Red Sox put out their best roster today, it would have Bregman at third base, Campbell at second base, and Rafael Devers at DH, where his suspect glove would be hidden and his aching shoulders better managed. However, Devers has already said he doesn't want to leave third base, and the Red Sox also have Masataka Yoshida's contract clogging up the DH spot.<h3>Are the Blue Jays too nice?</h3>One criticism the Toronto Blue Jays' front office has heard in recent years is that their club lacks an edge. The players have heard it this spring, too.On Sportsnet Radio's "Blair and Barker Show" this week, Jeff Blair said new outfielder Anthony Santander told pitchers Kevin Gausman and José Berríos to show more aggressiveness by pitching inside more often.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772064/cropped_GettyImages-2201212683.jpg?ts=1740758669" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772064/w220xh124_GettyImages-2201212683.jpg?ts=1740758669 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772064/w320xh180_GettyImages-2201212683.jpg?ts=1740758669 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772064/w640xh360_GettyImages-2201212683.jpg?ts=1740758669 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772064/w768xh432_GettyImages-2201212683.jpg?ts=1740758669 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/772064/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2201212683.jpg?ts=1740758669 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Julio Aguilar / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Last season, the Jays were in the middle of the pack - 11th against right-handed hitters and 16th against left-handed hitters - for fastballs thrown off the plate inside, according to pitch-tracking data. They weren't outliers in terms of that measure. Whether or not the critique is truly accurate or meaningful, it'll be interesting to see if the pitchers change their approach.Toronto brought in Santander and Max Scherzer to add a new dynamic to the clubhouse culture, an intangible the club values. Will it work? Will it matter? We'll soon learn more.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

TOKYO, JAPAN - NOVEMBER 24: Chandler Simpson #6 of Team USA runs to second base after hitting a double in the 5th inning during the WBSC Premier12 Bronze Medal game between USA and Venezuela at Tokyo Dome on November 24, 2024 in Tokyo, Japan.

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Baseball's newest speedster can hit, plus 3 more spring training items

Now what?  That's the question hovering over the Toronto Blue Jays after they failed to reach a c...

Now what?That's the question hovering over the Toronto Blue Jays after they failed to reach a contract extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before his Monday deadline.You can never say never, but it appears each side made its last, best offer. Guerrero will enter free agency at the end of the season, and he'll likely be the top player available at the age of 26.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>"I'm here. We didn't get an agreement," Guerrero said through an interpreter Tuesday. "Now, they're going to have to compete with 29 other teams."Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins <a href="https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1891851417670873478">told reporters</a>: "I'm confident that we exhausted the communication, the ideas, the thoughts, and communicated every dollar, and (we) felt (agent Barr Praver) and Vlad got to the point that they were comfortable as well. It just wasn't close enough."The Blue Jays made Guerrero a $340-million offer earlier this offseason, but that was before Juan Soto signed a record $765-million pact with the New York Mets. Guerrero <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3-Se4eGa5c">told</a> the "Abriendo Sports" podcast in December that the figure was "not even close to what we're looking for."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/cropped_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759900/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165033427.jpg?ts=1739910834 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jim McIsaac / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The size of Soto's contract likely ended any chance of an extension because it reset the market for young superstar free agents. That put the Jays in an awkward position with Guerrero. While he's the face of the franchise, he isn't Soto.Soto recorded 17.8 fWAR in the three seasons leading up to his free agency at the age of 26. Guerrero's three-year total for his age 23-25 seasons is 10.1 fWAR.Guerrero isn't Shohei Ohtani, either. Ohtani is a unicorn talent and marketing figure who totaled 15.1 fWAR in the three years before signing with the Dodgers.The Jays pursued all three and fell short every time.Further complicating matters is the market for first basemen isn't what it used to be.While Pete Alonso is more than four years older than Guerrero, he had to settle for a short-term deal with the New York Mets this offseason despite hitting a position-leading 120 home runs over the last three seasons.The largest contracts for free-agent first basemen were signed more than a decade ago: Albert Pujols' 10-year, $240-million deal with the Angels and Prince Fielder's nine-year, $214-million deal with Detroit, both following the 2011 season. The Jays haven't signed any homegrown players to extensions under Atkins and president Mark Shapiro. In the case of Guerrero, they waited too long to get serious.The Angels signed Mike Trout to a six-year, $144-million deal in 2014 after his second year in the majors, buying out two years of his free agency. Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11-year, $288-million deal prior to his 2024 breakout season with Kansas City, his third in the majors.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/cropped_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w220xh124_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w320xh180_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w640xh360_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w768xh432_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742763/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2167858673.jpg?ts=1739910987 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There are rare cases when long-term deals can be signed on the cusp of free agency, like Rafael Devers' 10-year, $313-million deal with the Red Sox before he entered his final season of club control in 2023. But Boston was essentially paying an open-market rate.It was never going to be easy to reach a deal, and it was made more difficult with time and recent contracts.With Guerrero intent to test the market, what do the Jays do now?There are two options: try to trade him (for major-league help or a better return than the draft-pick compensation they'll receive if he signs elsewhere) or keep him and hope the club can reach the playoffs (which could enhance the chances of re-signing him after the season).If one is only concerned about future surplus value for the club, it might make sense to entertain a trade as soon as possible. But the 2025 season isn't being played out in a vacuum, and it makes little sense to trade him right now, certainly not for a prospect-focused package.Failing to extend Guerrero doesn't change anything about 2025. The Blue Jays just executed an offseason plan, and did so reasonably well by <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3216725" href="https://thescore.com/news/3216725">my assessment</a>, to improve their short-term chances. Plan A to land Soto didn't work out, but they strengthened the roster with external additions in Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, Jeff Hoffman, and Yimi García.In many ways, the Blue Jays operated as if their window was closing soon, so there's no reason to accelerate that process. Nothing has changed about the coming season. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/cropped_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w220xh124_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w320xh180_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w640xh360_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w768xh432_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770622/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2160481079.jpg?ts=1739560726 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Beyond Guerrero, the starting rotation, the foundation of most successful teams, will look different soon enough.Chris Bassitt (signed through 2025), Max Scherzer (2025), and Kevin Gausman (2026) are all on short-term deals. The club could also find a market for Jose Berríos (2028) and his durable, mid-rotation arm.Toronto has just five players with guaranteed money signed for 2027, along with a poor farm system. The team will have to retool at some point - it's just a matter of when to start. The Jays chose to delay that inevitability. Shedding the keystone of the lineup now doesn't align with their winter maneuverings.Plus, trading a player in his final season of club control generally doesn't yield much of a trade return.Perhaps the club could've explored a Kyle Tucker-like trade, in which the Houston Astros sent the star outfielder, also in his final year of club control, to the Chicago Cubs for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith.But even with that deal, it's difficult to see the Astros improving in the short term. Houston lowered its 2025 ceiling by trading its arguably best position player.If Toronto is out of contention by mid-summer, the calculus changes. But for now, holding Guerrero fits best for the course the Jays chose.Another excellent season from Guerrero is key in making their short-term improvement plan work. Few players ought to be as motivated as Guerrero to have an excellent season. For now, the Jays need him at his best - not elsewhere.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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With no Guerrero extension, the Blue Jays have to chart a new course

Back in 2016, Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro was asked about the worst baseball decisio...

Back in 2016, Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mark-shapiro-learned-valuable-lesson-in-2001-c163378742">was asked</a> about the worst baseball decision he ever made. His answer took him back to 2001, his first year as general manager in Cleveland.His team at the time, like the Blue Jays now, was nearing the end of a competitive window, and he made a major trade shortly after taking over baseball operations, sending star second baseman Roberto Alomar to the Mets in an eight-player deal.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Shapiro said the problem was that he did not pick a direction. He tried to win and rebuild at the same time. The five-player return from the Mets included established major leaguer Matt Lawton and prospects headlined by Álex Escobar."Had we been more firmly committed in one direction - either contending or rebuilding - we would have made a trade that netted a better return," Shapiro said. "We learned from that experience and adjusted to make better trades."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/cropped_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w220xh124_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w320xh180_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w640xh360_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w768xh432_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/636339/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1482268906.jpg?ts=1739554515 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>When the Blue Jays' full squad workouts begin Tuesday in Dunedin, Florida, the book will mostly be closed on the offseason (though some transactions trickle into March), meaning we can now assess the Blue Jays’ critical winter.At the very least, they committed to a direction. Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins learned from history. There was not one foot in a rebuilding bucket and the other in a win-now stance.If the leadership group was confident in its job security, it could have chosen to begin a rebuild and trade cornerstone players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As painful and patience-testing as that path may be, one could argue it would be a healthier long-term plan. Baseball America ranks the Jays’ farm system 23rd in the sport.They chose a different path, of course. They chose to try to compete again in 2025.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/cropped_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w220xh124_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w320xh180_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w640xh360_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w768xh432_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744321/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2155900199.jpg?ts=1739554935 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty</figcaption></figure>How well did they execute the approach? Pretty well it turns out, even if they got off to a bumpy start.Plan A - securing an offseason prize like Juan Soto or Roki Sasaki - did not work out. But unlike a year ago, when the Blue Jays were snubbed by Shohei Ohtani, they were aggressive and creative about their Plan B. While they didn't land a secondary superstar, they did well in targeting and acquiring players in the tiers below the elites.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Blue Jays roster" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Jv273" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jv273/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="551" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><h3>The bullpen</h3>The Blue Jays ranked 30th in the majors in bullpen fWAR (minus-2.5) last season and 29th in bullpen ERA (4.82). Only the Rockies posted a worse ERA from their relief group. The Jays also received 23 wins from relievers, more than only the lowly White Sox.Knowing all this, the Jays' offseason began by signing Yimi García, a quality reliever who they missed after he was traded to Seattle at the deadline for prospects Jonatan Clase and Jacob Sharp.The Jays later handed a multi-year contract to Jeff Hoffman, who was arguably the top right-handed reliever available in free agency.Assuming Hoffman's medicals are not a major issue - a big assumption as the Orioles and Braves reduced their offers to Hoffman after reviewing them - the Blue Jays have found a replacement for Jordan Romano, who missed much of last season because of injury. Hoffman's mix and command are of such quality that some teams were looking at him as a starting pitcher. He posted back-to-back seasons of sub-1.00 WHIP and an elite 27 K-BB% ratio last year.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/cropped_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/764718/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168360365.jpg?ts=1739554682 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Drew Hallowell / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>García and Hoffman reinforce a bullpen that should also enjoy some internal improvement. Setup man Erik Swanson was much better in the second half of last season after the health of his son, who was hit by a car and in the ICU last spring training, was resolved. A return to form would be akin to another major addition.<h3>A platinum find</h3>While the Blue Jays didn't land Soto in free agency, they did add second baseman Andrés Giménez.Giménez is already an elite defensive player. He won the Platinum Glove in 2023 - awarded to the game's best overall defender regardless of position - and the American League Gold Glove at second base the last three seasons. He led all major leaguers in that span in defensive runs saved (59).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/cropped_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/770450/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177920278.jpg?ts=1739554649 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Even with muted offensive production the last two seasons for Cleveland, he posted 3.8 and 2.8 fWAR, meaning he was well above average.But there's an offensive upside for Toronto if his bat returns to his 2022 level of performance (.297/.371/.466 with a 141 wRC+). That 6-WAR season earned him a lucrative contract extension (seven years, $106 million) from the Guardians.He can also move to shortstop, his natural position, if Bichette leaves in free agency next year.The budget-minded Guardians traded Giménez in part to free themselves of his contract and in part because they feared what a third straight down offensive season might mean for his trade value, a source explained. Cleveland also selected a college second baseman, Travis Bazzana, with the first overall pick in the draft in June. The franchise has a surplus of players who can be traded.The cost of the trade for the Jays - Spencer Horwitz and a player from Class A - is a win for Toronto. It swapped a platoon player for an up-the-middle everyday regular.<h3>Powering up</h3>Giménez was an opportunistic add, but Anthony Santander fit a need.In the previous two offseasons, the Blue Jays swapped bat-first players for glove-first players. The trade-off has not worked out.To succeed in the AL East and the postseason, teams need power. The Jays' recent run-differential trend is tied to a power outage.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Run differential by year" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-FPdhU" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FPdhU/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="150" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/cropped_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w220xh124_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w320xh180_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w640xh360_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w768xh432_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740189/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2165261024.jpg?ts=1739554712 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Cole Burston / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Home runs become even more important when a team is fortunate enough to reach the postseason. It's more difficult to string hits together as strikeouts and pitching quality increase.The Santander signing, which we proposed <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3064104" href="https://thescore.com/news/3064104">back in September</a>, fits the power need for the Blue Jays better than anyone who was available outside of Soto.Santander hit 44 home runs last season and is averaging 34 per year since his 2022 breakout. His wRC+ has been remarkably consistent - between 119 and 130 - since 2022. The projection systems believe he's good for another 30-plus homer season in 2025 and 120-130 wRC+.He's also one of the best hitters at pulling the ball in the air, a sticky skill that should help him remain a power source throughout his five-year contract. He trailed only Cleveland’s José Ramírez in pulled fly balls hit last season (258).While there are concerns about giving a one-dimensional slugger a long-term deal at $14 million per year, a portion of which is deferred, the contract won't become an extreme albatross even if Santander declines midway through the contract.<h3>Hidden value </h3>It might not seem like there's an upside regarding a 40-year-old pitcher who's coming off an injury-shortened 2024, but Max Scherzer is another year removed from back surgery, had a normal offseason, and impressed scouts at his workout last month.He wasn't at the peak of his powers when he was on the mound last year, but he remained an above-average pitcher on a per-inning basis (3.95 ERA and a 17 K-BB%). He even logged his best Command+ grade in five years.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/cropped_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w220xh124_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w320xh180_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w640xh360_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w768xh432_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/634158/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2158908287.jpg?ts=1739554740 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Every team is searching for pitching depth, and the Jays need it with question marks beyond their top four starting pitchers. The average of the FanGraphs projections have Scherzer finishing as a 2.0 WAR pitcher in 2025, with a K-BB% approaching 20%, well above league average. If he hits that projection, the signing will prove to be a steal.<h3>Is it enough?</h3>Add all these player additions together and subtract the projected value of players shed from the roster this offseason, and the Blue Jays net an improvement of 8.2 wins above replacement for 2025, according to FanGraphs' Steamer projections.The pre-existing roster was projected to improve by 8.9 fWAR. Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, José Berríos, and Will Wagner account for the majority of that (5.0 fWAR).Combining those internal and external improvements, we arrive at an improvement of 17 wins compared to Toronto's 2024 finish. That would put the Jays at around 91 wins in 2025.Some projections won't be that bullish. PECOTA forecasts 84.6 wins for Toronto, good for third in the AL East and a game and a half behind Seattle for the final wild-card berth. Contending for a division title in the tough AL East will be difficult, but the Jays have improved enough to push for a wild card as Guerrero and Bichette head toward free agency in 2026.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Assessing the Blue Jays' offseason plan and execution 

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