theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 328 in Newark.
Middleweight championship
Khamzat Chimaev (15-0)
vs.
Sean Strickland (30-7)
Khamzat Chimaev is finally set to defend the UFC middleweight title for the first - and possibly last - time.
Chimaev, who became the champion in a rout of Dricus Du Plessis last summer, will take on Sean Strickland, a former champ eager to go on another title run. Chimaev and Strickland don't like each other one bit, making for a roller-coaster build-up that reached a climax at Thursday's press conference when the two slung expletives and slurs in the other's direction for about 20 minutes.
That kind of raw emotion heading into a fight can lead to some pretty unpredictable outcomes in the Octagon. That said, Chimaev is a massive favorite for good reason. He was the boogeyman of the welterweight division, and then the middleweight division, for years. He finally lived up to the hype when he seized the title at UFC 319, outlanding Du Plessis 529-45, completing 12 of 17 takedowns, and compiling over 21 minutes of control time on the ground.
Chimaev's grappling is on a different level than anybody else's in the division, and it's not even close. UFC commentator Joe Rogan wasn't wrong when he said Strickland has solid takedown defense and "underrated" grappling, but I'm not sure it'll matter against Chimaev. The middleweight champion does an extremely good job of dictating the pace of his fights, putting his opponents in uncomfortable positions, and either rag-dolling them or punching them out for a TKO.
Strickland pulled off a huge upset the first time he fought for the UFC middleweight title, but he won't be as lucky this time.
The pick: Chimaev, fourth-round TKO
Flyweight championship
Joshua Van (16-2)
vs.
Tatsuro Taira (18-1)
Joshua Van will have a chance to prove he's the rightful king of the flyweight division when he faces top contender Tatsuro Taira in the co-main event.
Van won the title in anticlimactic fashion last December when Alexandre Pantoja suffered an injury 26 seconds into their fight. It's hard to say how credible a champion Van is after a flukey win like that, but an impressive performance against Taira would boost his stock in a big way. Taira has been nearly perfect since his Octagon debut in 2022, putting together an 8-1 record to improve to 18-1 as a professional. He's coming off back-to-back stoppages of former champ Brandon Moreno and Hyun Sung Park, earning himself his first shot at UFC gold.
Many are expecting to see a high-paced, exciting bout between Van, 24, and Taira, 26. Van has the advantage in the striking department, while Taira has the edge on the ground, so this fight will largely come down to who can dictate where it goes. I'm siding with Van to stuff Taira's early takedown attempts and wear down the Japanese challenger on the feet in the championship rounds.
The pick: Van, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Alexander Volkov (39-11)
vs.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta is on a roll, having won eight of his last nine fights and putting himself in the heavyweight title conversation. But Alexander Volkov will halt that momentum.
Volkov, 5-1 in his last six, is also on a nice winning streak, and I believe he's a caliber above Cortes-Acosta when it comes to overall skill. His only losses in the past six years have come against current champion Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. He'll use his long reach and tactical striking to pick apart Cortes-Acosta and keep his run going.
The pick: Volkov, unanimous decision
Welterweight bout
Sean Brady (18-2)
vs.
Joaquin Buckley (21-7)
I love Sean Brady here. The No. 6-ranked welterweight will be eager to put a TKO loss to Michael Morales behind him. Stylistically, I don't see him having much trouble getting past Joaquin Buckley. Expect Brady to lean heavily on his wrestling to grind out Buckley en route to a lopsided victory.
The pick: Brady, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
King Green (34-17-1, 1 NC)
vs.
Jeremy Stephens (29-22, 1 NC)
This could be a lot of fun. Jeremy Stephens unfortunately missed weight by four pounds Friday, but I don't see how he and King Green can step into the Octagon and not deliver a banger.
Green is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2023, highlighted by an upset knockout of Daniel Zellhuber at UFC Mexico City in February. With all the damage that Stephens has taken in his recent fights - including a loss to Mike Perry in BKFC - I'm picking Green to find another finish.
The pick: Green, third-round TKO
Rapid-fire bets
Best overall bet: Sean Brady (-170) def. Joaquin Buckley
Stylistically, this is a great matchup for Brady. As long as he avoids Buckley's powerful shots on the feet, Brady should close the distance and grind out the win.
Best underdog bet: Joshua Van (+140) def. Tatsuro Taira
Van-Taira is an evenly matched title fight, but it's hard to pass up the defending champion at plus money.
Best prop bet: Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley goes over 2.5 rounds (-130)
There's a good chance this fight will go the distance, so I'm a big fan of this prop at -130.
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