theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 329 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Welterweight bout
Conor McGregor (22-6)
vs.
Max Holloway (27-9)
After five years away from the sport, Conor McGregor is back.
The UFC hasn't given the former two-division champion a layup in his return to the Octagon - far from it, in fact. Max Holloway, though slightly past his prime and coming off a lopsided loss to Charles Oliveira, is still one of the best fighters in the world. And he'll throw everything but the kitchen sink at McGregor in attempt to avenge his 2013 loss.
Coming back from a five-year layoff - just before your 38th birthday - is a tall order for anyone, so it makes sense that Holloway is the clear-cut betting favorite. I'm still giving McGregor a shot to win because there's always a chance that he looks like his old self - and prime McGregor versus prime Holloway is a competitive matchup. But the problem is, there's an equal chance that McGregor shows up looking old and slow. We don't know if he's still an elite fighter.
Like in many of his past fights, McGregor's best chance to win will come in the first two or three rounds. If he can overwhelm Holloway early like he did Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, McGregor could ultimately get his hand raised. Holloway is better than Cerrone was at that point, but let's not forget he's only a few fights removed from his first career knockout loss. His chin might not be what it used to.
On the flip side, Holloway will be looking to drag McGregor into deep waters. McGregor has never had the best cardiovascular endurance, while Holloway can seemingly go all night. If Holloway survives the early onslaught and starts using his volume to outwork and batter McGregor, I think it'll be a long night for the Irishman.
The pick: Holloway, fourth-round TKO
Lightweight bout
Benoit Saint Denis (17-3, 1 NC)
vs.
Paddy Pimblett (23-4)
I give Paddy Pimblett a lot of credit for agreeing to fight Benoit Saint Denis coming off a loss, because there are a lot of people who wouldn't have said yes to this matchup. But I don't think it ends well for him.
Saint Denis is one of the most violent fighters in the lightweight division. He has a sharp stand-up game, using pressure to overwhelm his opponents on the feet, and he can apply heavy top control on the ground too. Pimblett is the better submission artist, and there's always a chance he can implement that against Saint Denis, though I don't see it happening.
Saint Denis' weapons will be too much for Pimblett's toughness.
The pick: Saint Denis, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Cory Sandhagen (18-6)
vs.
Mario Bautista (17-3)
Cory Sandhagen is one of those guys who loses to the very best fighters in his division but beats everyone else. Mario Bautista is talented, but a recent loss to Umar Nurmagomedov showed that he isn't quite in the upper echelon. I think Sandhagen cruises to a win, setting himself up for a huge fight later - potentially against Sean O'Malley.
The pick: Sandhagen, unanimous decision
Flyweight bout
Brandon Royval (17-9)
vs.
Lone'er Kavanagh (10-1)
Lone'er Kavanagh is coming off an upset win over former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and looks like a future star in the division. This fight against Brandon Royval will be another tough test for the 27-year-old Englishman, but if he can beat Moreno, I don't see why he can't beat Royval too.
The pick: Kavanagh, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
King Green (35-17-1, 1 NC)
vs.
Terrance McKinney (18-8)
It's disappointing that the UFC had to relegate Robert Whittaker and Gable Steveson to the prelims, but it's also easy to see why the promotion decided to kick off the main card with this fight. King Green versus Terrance McKinney should be pure fireworks for as long as it lasts. McKinney's last seven fights all ended during the first round; he hasn't made it past the five-minute mark since 2023. Green is no stranger to winning by finish - or getting finished - himself.
This one will probably come down to who lands first. I'm taking Green.
The pick: Green, first-round knockout
Rapid-fire bets
Best overall bet: Cory Sandhagen (-135) def. Mario Bautista
Sandhagen will prove that he's a level above Bautista in this fight. I think he should be a bigger favorite than he is.
Best underdog bet: King Green (+105) def. Terrance McKinney
This is a coin-flip fight, but Green is riding some momentum and I like him to keep his winning streak alive.
Best prop bet: McGregor-Holloway over 2.5 rounds (-105)
McGregor's last three fights ended before the two-and-a-half round mark, but he's facing a very different opponent this time around. A Holloway fight hasn't ended before the third round since his first meeting with Oliveira in 2015. Anything can happen, but this matchup is likely to reach the second half of the allotted 25 minutes.
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