The NBA Finals should deliver a compelling matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks. The Spurs are looking to kickstart another dynasty and usher in the age of Victor Wembanyama, while the Knicks seek the franchise's first championship in 53 years. Here are a handful of questions that will determine which team emerges victorious.
How will Knicks guard Wemby?
While there's no solving Wembanyama, the Knicks are as well-equipped to trouble the otherworldly big man as any team.
Ironically, it doesn't start with New York's own giants (Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson), but rather forward OG Anunoby, whose combination of strength and length makes him the ideal option to guard against bigs. Anunoby's physical gifts and defensive abilities have helped him contain Wembanyama better than anyone else has since the French star entered the league.
Meanwhile, Towns and Robinson can use their sheer strength to wear Wemby down and keep him off the glass when they're matched up with the Spurs phenom. As a reserve, Robinson in particular can be more physical with Wembanyama and less concerned about foul trouble.
However, using Anunoby (or another undersized player like Josh Hart) to guard up against Wembanyama might leave New York short elsewhere. Where do the Knicks stash Towns defensively? The answer could be as simple as stretch-forward Julian Champagnie, but the Spurs have a surplus of guards and might be able to overwhelm Towns' Knicks by going even smaller around Wembanyama.
Although Anunoby should draw the primary assignment, it'll be fascinating to monitor how the chess match unfolds between head coaches Mike Brown and Mitch Johnson.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spurs | -200 |
| Knicks | +165 |
Can the Spurs slow Brunson?
Between defensive menace Stephon Castle and a glut of other handsy guards like De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, and Dylan Harper, the Spurs can present several challenges for perimeter stars before those opponents even get to the 7-foot-4 boogeyman patrolling the paint. Just ask Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
San Antonio neutralized the reigning two-time MVP for much of the Western Conference final, and it'll look to do the same to Jalen Brunson. Whether it's Castle at the point of attack, a layer (or "flood") of potential helpers lurking around him, or Wembanyama waiting behind them all, Brunson will be tested in ways he hasn't been this postseason.
Can the undersized guard continue to defy the odds and find a way through that maze of Spurs defenders? Can Brunson use his jumper to pull Wembanyama higher up the floor rather than playing into San Antonio's hands and driving at him? Can he harness the power of his gravity and playmaking to unlock his teammates and alter the Spurs' defensive strategy?
Is KAT the key for New York?
Speaking of harnessing the power of playmaking ...
No player has flipped the script more dramatically than Towns this spring. The six-time All-Star has rewritten his checkered postseason narrative by playing the most complete basketball of his decorated career, emerging as arguably New York's most valuable player during the team's first Finals run of the 21st century.
The shift began when Towns suggested a role change midway through the first-round series against Atlanta. By using Towns more as a playmaking hub and running the offense through the big man, the Knicks achieved several objectives: keeping Towns engaged, easing the burden on high-volume star Brunson, and diversifying New York's offense, with cutters capitalizing on Towns' vision.
Towns ranks third on the Knicks in playoff scoring, but he's elevating his game across the board. Previously, he had never averaged more than 4.8 assists in a regular season or 2.6 assists in a postseason. Through the first three rounds of these playoffs, Towns is up to 5.9 assists per game while leading New York in rebounds and blocks. Entering this spring, Towns' single-game career high for playoff assists was five; he's eclipsed that number in nine of his last 11 contests. Having said that, the new-look Knicks haven't run into a defense anywhere close to San Antonio's caliber.
Brunson is still the team's engine and heartbeat in many ways, but Towns is its barometer. If Towns can find a way to pick the Spurs apart or punish them himself while San Antonio is keyed in on Brunson, the Spurs might run out of answers. On the other end, it's worth watching whether the Knicks can keep Towns out of key actions, or if San Antonio can force him to move his feet.
Finally, Towns once demonstrated a penchant for sloppy, jumpy, foul-prone play on the biggest stages. This series could very well be determined by whether that version of the veteran star is truly behind him. The Knicks can't afford to have that KAT reappear under the brightest lights.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | -185 |
| Jalen Brunson | +200 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | +2500 |
| OG Anunoby | +5000 |
| Stephon Castle | +5000 |
Can someone other than Wemby or Brunson win MVP? Bet on it with theScore Bet 🔗
Can Hart make Spurs pay?
Towns' shooting won't be what pulls Wembanyama away from the rim, because Wemby is unlikely to guard New York's floor-spacing star. Instead, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is expected to start the series "on" the more offensively challenged Hart, though Wembanyama will largely ignore Hart to act as somewhat of a free safety.
Hart and the Knicks are no strangers to such disrespectful defensive tactics, but you can't blame San Antonio. While Hart shot a stunning 41% from deep this season and has been a much-improved shooter as a Knick, that hasn't always translated to the postseason. That problem has been worse than ever this spring: Hart's shooting 30.3% on 4.7 3-point attempts per game.
Can Hart make enough of what will likely be wide-open threes to keep Wembanyama and the Spurs honest? If he does get hot, will that actually change the calculus for Johnson, or will San Antonio stick to its guns and let Hart fire away? Alternatively, even if Hart's jumper remains flat, can Brown use him in a way that still punishes the Spurs? Look for Hart to move around, get involved earlier, and use his playmaking to open up lanes for others.
Who controls the glass?
The Knicks are an elite offensive rebounding team that uses its interior size and active wings to create extra shot attempts. The Spurs were the league's best defensive rebounding team during the regular season (72.4% DREB) and will often boast the tallest player on the court in either Wembanyama or reserve center Luke Kornet.
However, the Spurs struggled to keep the Thunder off the offensive glass during the conference finals, and the Knicks are a much better rebounding team than Oklahoma City was this season.
The Spurs' season-long performance, their home-court advantage, and the presence of Wembanyama give them a leg up entering the Finals. But the margin is thin enough that New York could tilt the scales by winning the possession battle.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.
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