Cinderella's on life support in NCAA Tournament

"Gonzaga! The slipper still fits!"

For college basketball fans over the age of 30, Gus Johnson screaming those words as Gonzaga upset Florida in 1999 likely cemented your fandom of the NCAA Tournament.

One of the main draws of the annual event is the possibility of underdog teams comprised of future insurance salesmen and financial analysts knocking off one of the nation's top programs. Sure, it's great watching eventual NBA lottery picks drop 25 points in the postseason, but that pales in comparison to fans falling in love with dudes like Ali Farokhmanesh, T.J. Sorrentine, and Jack Gohlke.

However, the clock has seemingly struck midnight for Cinderella at the NCAA Tournament, as this year's chalk-heavy results mark two consecutive opening rounds in which the underdogs have lacked serious bite.

This year, the top seeds didn't just win in the first round. They put the mid-majors in a headlock and little brother'd them for 40 minutes. The average margin of victory in the Round of 64 was 17.4 points per game - the highest since the tournament expanded in 1985, according to Josh Dubow of the Associated Press. The second-largest margin? Last year.

For the second tournament in a row, not a single team seeded 13-16 won its opening-round game. That only happened once between 2008 and 2024, but it's now become the norm.

The shortage of upsets has left Texas - the nation's most valuable athletic department - to play the role of plucky underdog as the only double-digit seed remaining.

The only other option comes in the form of Iowa after the 9th-seeded Hawkeyes stunned No. 1 Florida on Sunday. However, Iowa hails from the Big Ten and is playing in its 8th NCAA Tournament in the last 13 years. Not exactly the resume of past tourney darlings.

So, what happened to Cinderella?

There are a number of reasons for the underdog's downfall: NIL, the transfer portal, conference realignment, and evolution in the style of play as major programs lean on size. They've blended together to make life as a mid-major harder than ever.

Larger programs that are backed by a significant bankroll essentially pluck promising players from their smaller counterparts at a moment's notice.

Donovan Dent, for example, put up 17 points and eight assists to lead New Mexico past UCLA in November 2024. This year, he guided the Bruins to the tournament after transferring in the offseason. Most of us would gladly take more money to perform the same job elsewhere, so why not do so in the land of college basketball?

Many former Cinderellas, such as George Mason, Butler, and Loyola Chicago, opted to switch conferences soon after making a deep tournament run, and the heightened competition has since resulted in consistent tournament absences for each. Even Florida Atlantic has dropped off substantially after its stunning Final Four run in 2023. The Owls, who, by then, had already announced their impending move to the American Conference, lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament the following season and are barely .500 over the last two years.

Those moves haven't just weakened the teams who fled. They've also diminished the quality of their former conferences, which are now sending less-skilled teams to March Madness as their respective league champions.

Florida won the national title last year by relying heavily on its massive frontcourt, a trend that's become more popular among the top programs in recent years.

"When you have the opportunity to recruit bigger, stronger, faster athletes and play a style that allows you to raise your floor with high two-point field-goal percentage and get on the glass, that just gives you a better chance to be consistently successful," Gators coach Todd Golden told Kevin Sweeney of Sports Illustrated.

OK, so we're all bummed that Cinderella is an endangered species, but the underdog's downfall isn't all bad. The trade-off of losing some early-round upsets is the possibility of incredible basketball happening as the tournament progresses.

The dirty little secret with Cinderellas is that the longer they stick around, the greater chance there is that you'll eventually get a stinker when they come crashing back down to earth. As more high-level teams make it through the early portions of the tournament, the subsequent rounds stand to feature a serious dose of talent.

Last year's tourney was filled with bangers from the Sweet 16 and onward, as five contests ended up being one-possession games, including the enthralling national championship between Florida and Houston.

With those atop the KenPom rankings taking most of the spots in the Sweet 16 once again, we're set for another blockbuster finish to a tournament that killed Cinderella early.

This may not be the NCAA Tournament we grew up with, but it remains one of the best events on the sports calendar every single year.