Playoff breakdown: The race for CFP slots with 2 weeks to play

The 12-team College Football Playoff was supposed to bring clarity to the postseason by adding eight programs and getting all deserving parties involved.

Instead, the opposite has happened in a season filled with parity and lacking an elite program that stands above the rest. The result is more heated arguments than ever. The lack of divisions in the Power conferences is causing chaos as the race to the title game and playoff berths is coming down to the wire.

Here's how the race for the 12 slots in the playoff bracket looks with two weeks of action and the conference title games left on the schedule.

SEC

• Texas (9-1, 5-1 conference)
• Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 conference)
• Georgia (8-2, 6-2 conference)
• Tennessee (8-2, 5-2 conference)
• Alabama (8-2, 4-2 conference)
• Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 conference)

Given the CFP committee's previous affinity for SEC programs, it's plausible that four or five teams from the conference will make the playoff this time around. That would leave at least one or two of the six squads ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll on the outside looking in - a situation that would surely be handled well by the incredibly rational fan bases associated with each.

Usually, this sort of thing would play itself out with head-to-head matchups, but the only meeting left between teams on the above list is Texas A&M hosting Texas in the season finale. Now might be a good time to brush up on your SEC title game tiebreaker rules because the head-to-head comparisons do nothing to clear up the situation.

Georgia has two great wins over Tennessee and Texas - both by double digits. However, Alabama and Ole Miss beat the Bulldogs this season. The Crimson Tide have that sparkling Georgia win but lost to Tennessee on the road earlier. The loser of the Texas-Texas A&M contest will have two conference losses and won't make the SEC title game. If that's the Longhorns, the best Power conference win on their schedule will be ... Vanderbilt.

If you're someone who wants to see how the committee handles chaos down the stretch, the SEC is the league for you.

Big Ten

• Oregon (11-0, 8-0 conference)
• Indiana (10-0, 7-0 conference)
• Ohio State (9-1, 6-1 conference)
• Penn State (9-1, 6-1 conference)

Oregon's move to the Big Ten has presented about as much of a challenge as crossing an empty street. The Ducks have already clinched a spot in the conference title game and almost assuredly secured a CFP berth regardless of that result. Who the competition will be is where it gets interesting in the Big Ten. Indiana is a shocking 10-0 for the first time ever and heads into arguably the biggest game in program history at Ohio State this weekend.

So, what happens if the Hoosiers lose to Ohio State as the oddsmakers expect? That's where things get murky. An 11-1 Big Ten team seems like a lock, especially one that has claimed victory by at least 14 points in every game but one this season. However, Indiana has yet to play a team in the top eight of the Big Ten this year and finishes the schedule with a date against basement-dwelling Purdue. Curt Cignetti's bunch has pounded almost everyone in its way, but you could argue that several programs in the country would have the same record playing these opponents.

Meanwhile, Penn State lurks in fourth with a road game at Minnesota on deck before the home finale against Maryland. The Nittany Lions should get past those contests and lock up a playoff spot at 11-1 despite not playing for the Big Ten title. That could set the table for a home 'white out' playoff game in front of over 100,000 screaming fans.

ACC

• SMU (9-1, 6-0 conference)
• Clemson (8-2, 7-1 conference)
• Miami (9-1, 5-1 conference)

The ACC is perhaps the cleanest of the remaining Power conference races, with the playoff committee likely only paying attention to SMU and Miami. Provided both win out, a meeting in the conference title game will decide the one, and likely only, participant from the ACC in the 12-team field.

Banking on the Hurricanes to win out seems safe, but Mario Cristobal's team has shown in the past that they're capable of losing as heavy favorites to just about anybody. That was on full display last time Miami took the field, shockingly losing at Georgia Tech two weeks ago. That likely removed the Hurricanes' chances of holding an at-large possibility should they lose the conference title game.

SMU hasn't been phased by the ACC competition in its first year with the conference, ripping off a perfect mark with two games to play. A road trip to Virginia this weekend poses the biggest threat to an unbeaten regular-season ACC slate for the Mustangs.

Dabo Swinney and Clemson are second in the conference, but they need Miami to slip up coming home if they want to make the ACC title game. The Tigers have already finished their conference schedule, and it seems unlikely the committee will put them in the CFP as an at-large team after it lost handily to Georgia and Louisville.

Big 12

• BYU (9-1, 6-1 conference)
• Colorado (8-2, 6-1 conference)
• Arizona State (8-2, 5-2 conference)
• Iowa State (7-2, 4-2 conference)

The last two weeks of the Big 12 have seen Travis Hunter play nearly 300 total snaps, score two touchdowns, pull in one of the catches of the year, and stuff a tortilla into his pants that was thrown on the field during a play. We also got a sitting athletic director at Utah saying, "I'm disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating crew tonight," immediately following a loss to BYU in the Holy War. That came after the Cougars saw their unbeaten run end thanks largely to Kansas' quarterback punting a ball off a BYU player's helmet. Oh, and Arizona State somehow still controls its destiny in the Big 12 title race despite coming off back-to-back three-win seasons.

BYU and Colorado are in the driver's seat, as both will be in the Big 12 title game with wins in the final two contests on the schedule. That'll be trickier for the Cougars since they have a road trip to Arizona State looming. The Sun Devils can pass BYU with a victory at home, and Iowa State will be in the mix should Colorado or the Cougars slip.

Other

• Notre Dame (8-1)
• Army (9-0, 7-0 AAC)
• Boise State (9-1, 6-0 MWC)
• UNLV (8-2, 4-1 MWC)
• Tulane (9-2, 7-0 AAC)

It turns out that the stunning home loss to Northern Illinois won't hurt Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have rebounded from that embarrassing setback to crush all opponents in their wake and sit 8-1 with two games to play. That'll be more than enough to get them in the playoff, provided they win their final two games. We'll immediately get some clarity on one of the other teams on this list as undefeated Army gets Notre Dame this Saturday. If the Black Knights pull off the stunner, the CFP's Group of Five slot will likely be Army's, barring defeat in the AAC title game.

Boise State would have the inside track to that berth should Army lose, with Ashton Jeanty's prolific season grabbing plenty of headlines for the Broncos. A narrow loss on the road to No. 1 Oregon earlier this year brought respect for Boise State in the eyes of the committee, something clear by its ranking in the CFP releases.