1 matchup that could decide each divisional-round game
The best weekend on the football calendar is here.
A few games may appear one-sided on paper, but there's a reason each of these teams find themselves among the final eight. Could we be in for an upset or two in the divisional round?
Here's one matchup that could decide each game.
Texans DEs vs. Chiefs OTs
The Texans shocked the football world by beating the brakes off the Chargers in the wild-card round. Taking on the two-time defending champs at Arrowhead is a far more daunting task, but there's still a potential path to success here.
Hanging with the Chiefs will, first and foremost, require getting after Patrick Mahomes in the pocket. Houston is uniquely capable of doing so, having finished the regular season with the NFL's No. 1 pressure rate, according to Next Gen Stats. Standout defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. lead the way in that department, ranking second and fifth, respectively, among all linemen in 2024.
Hunter and Anderson, who combined for 23 sacks this year, spend time on both sides of the line. The one lined up to the left will draw Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who is tied for 38th among offensive tackles in pass-block efficiency, according to PFF. Taylor has also committed 17 penalties this season, third most among all offensive linemen.
The Chiefs are turning to All-Pro guard Joe Thuney at left tackle after some consistent issues from Wanya Morris, rookie Kingsley Suamataia, and in-season signing D.J. Humphries. Thuney was overwhelmed in his first appearance at left tackle this season, giving up 10 pressures in 43 pass-block snaps against the Browns in Week 15. He settled in from there, though, allowing four pressures the following week against Houston and none in Week 17 in Pittsburgh.
The Texans' star edge rushers have an opportunity to disrupt Kansas City's passing game by taking advantage of these matchups. Then again, this is the Chiefs we're talking about. Is anyone going to be surprised if any and all question marks disappear in the playoffs?
Lions RBs vs. Commanders D
The Lions' defense is going to have its hands full with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' well-designed offense, but Washington will need at least a few key stops to have an opportunity to shock the world. Those won't be easy to come by.
While the Commanders' defense has taken steps in the right direction under Dan Quinn, this unit is still in the early stages of a full-scale rebuild. Major shortcomings in the run game will be difficult to overcome against Detroit's incredibly balanced offense.
| Category | DET offense rank | WSH defense rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total EPA | 2nd | 24th |
| Pass EPA | 2nd | 20th |
| Rush EPA | 3rd | 26th |
| Yards/rush | 9th | 28th |
| Yards before contact/rush | 7th | 29th |
(Source: TruMedia)
The Lions are the NFL's premier under-center running team. They've racked up a league-best 1,801 rush yards from such formations this year, over 400 yards more than the next-closest team, according to Next Gen Stats. Detroit also ranks second in success rate (47%) and a distant first in explosive run rate (15.4%) on plays from under center.
The Commanders' defense, meanwhile, owns the league's worst success rate (47%) and explosive play rate (13.7%) against under-center runs. The Lions will look to exploit this mismatch early and often.
Selling out to stop Detroit's two-headed monster of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery may be Washington's best bet to keep this one close. Forcing the ball into Jared Goff's hands won't yield an especially favorable matchup, either, but it could create chances for a turnover that might help swing the game. Finding a way to keep this one close would at least leave the door open for some more late magic from Daniels.
Sean McVay vs. Vic Fangio
Sean McVay's offense was up to the task in a difficult wild-card matchup against the Vikings. The Rams moved the ball with consistency, avoided negative plays, and became the first team all season to keep Minnesota's defense out of the turnover column. They'll need an even better performance to steal a win in Philly.
L.A.'s best chance against these Eagles is to put them in an early hole that could potentially force a pass-heavy approach. Jalen Hurts is a dangerous player in his own right, but L.A. simply counting on an improved showing against the run can't be an option. The ground-game mismatch was made abundantly clear when Saquon Barkley shredded the Rams for 255 rushing yards in a 37-20 victory in Week 12.
The Rams' offense dictating this game in such a way that limits Barkley's role will be no easy task. The Eagles' defense finished the regular season ranked second in total EPA, including a league-best mark in the first half of games, according to TruMedia. But there is some reason for optimism. Los Angeles' passing game has enjoyed far more success against zone coverage (eighth in EPA/dropback) than man (23rd). Vic Fangio's defense played zone on 79% of snaps from Week 10 through the end of the regular season, the third-highest rate this year.
Could a second matchup with Fangio's defense help McVay cook up the perfect game plan and put the Eagles on their heels from the jump?
Ravens run game vs. Bills run D
Sunday's AFC heavyweight tilt is headlined by a meeting of the MVP front-runners. It'll be fascinating to see Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen go head to head in the marquee game of the year, but the Bills will need to flip the script in another area if that matchup is going to be what decides this one.
Buffalo's defense allowed 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season, tied for 18th league-wide. A Week 4 showdown with the Ravens ended up as something of a dud because the Bills simply couldn't hold up against the run. Jackson and Derrick Henry led the way to a 35-10 rout as Baltimore put up 271 rushing yards on 8.0 yards per carry.
Bullying the Bills on the ground proved to be a sign of things to come, as the Ravens went on to finish the year having set a new NFL record for yards per attempt (5.76). They are also the first team in league history to run for 3,000 yards while also passing for 4,000.
The absence of top Ravens wideout Zay Flowers could theoretically allow the Bills to get extra aggressive and truly sell out against the run, but it's possible even that won't be enough. Henry finished the year with 1,921 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry despite facing stacked boxes (eight-plus defenders) on 33.2% of his runs, the second-highest mark among all running backs.
Allen and the Bills' offense also have a tough assignment of their own on the other side of the ball, taking on a Ravens defense that ranks first in EPA since Week 11. The defense has to find a way to help Allen out if this is going to be the year the Bills get over the hump.