Projected landing spots, contracts for top offensive free agents

NFL free agency gets underway Monday with the beginning of the negotiating period.

Who goes where? And what kind of money is going to be thrown around this offseason? Let's take our best shot and map it all out, starting with the top names on the market on offense.

(Editor's note: This article was published before Seattle agreed to trade Geno Smith to Las Vegas.)

Sam Darnold, QB

Darnold is the top available quarterback and, by extension, the biggest domino to fall in free agency. He'll have plenty of interest after a breakout season with the Vikings, but there's some reason for caution. Can he replicate that in a less QB-friendly environment? Any doubt will impact his market. That should have Darnold favoring a short-term return to Minnesota, even if that's at a bit of a discount. Running it back would potentially allow the Vikings to build off last year's 14-win season and take things slowly with J.J. McCarthy. A multi-year deal could even have some appeal from the team's perspective, as a repeat performance would make Darnold an attractive trade chip next offseason.

Aaron Rodgers, QB

Rodgers' impending release will bring an end to a nightmare stint with the Jets. At 41 years old, it's entirely possible he has nothing left in the tank. But it's hard to imagine someone doesn't take a swing with so many teams in need of a starting quarterback. And it's not like there weren't some flashes down the stretch last season. Could Rodgers offer a little more consistency another full year removed from his Achilles injury? The Raiders might be willing to find out. The pursuit of Matthew Stafford appeared to signal an interest in following the model the Bucs took in landing Tom Brady back in 2020. And the win-now approach makes sense with Brady helping to bring in Pete Carroll as the new head coach. Rodgers isn't what Brady was back then, nor is he on Stafford's level now. But the cost should reflect that. And the future Hall of Famer will be motivated to wrap up his career in a more positive way.

Russell Wilson, QB

The Steelers are said to be interested in re-signing either Wilson or Justin Fields. A painfully conservative move can never be ruled out with this team, but it's tough to imagine Wilson being the guy after the way his season ended. Moon balls down the sideline just aren't enough to sustain a consistent offense, and the rest of his game is trending down at the age of 36. Wilson's market will likely be limited to teams looking for a short-term bridge to the next quarterback. The Giants, who could trade up for Cam Ward, are a particularly logical fit. Wilson met with New York before ultimately signing in Pittsburgh last year. He'd give the Giants a decent starting option to avoid rushing Ward, or another young quarterback, onto the field as a rookie.

Justin Fields, QB

Fields is one of the league's most dynamic running quarterbacks. He hasn't put it all together as a passer to this point, but there's still time. The late-career breakouts from quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Geno Smith should serve as a reminder that the 25-year-old is far from a finished product. Fields appears to be the Steelers' top option heading into free agency, with reports suggesting that they favor him over Wilson. He'd likely have several other suitors if he hits the open market, but the smart money is on him re-signing in Pittsburgh. Another year in the same system - ideally with some upgrades at receiver - could benefit his development. Taking advantage of his opportunity on a one-year deal could set him up for a multi-year payday in 2026.

Chris Godwin, WR

The Bucs aren't in the business of letting good players walk out the door. Big-money deals for Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Antoine Winfield proved as much over the last few years. This one could be a little complicated, though. Godwin's market value is a little unclear as he's coming off a season-ending ankle injury. And the Bucs are working on a deadline here - they'll incur a dead-money hit of $18.8 million if there isn't a new deal in place by the time his previous contract voids March 12, according to Over The Cap. The Patriots are desperate for an upgrade at receiver and have the cap space to push contract talks to a place that gets uncomfortable for the Bucs.

Davante Adams, WR

Adams forcing a midseason trade from the Raiders to the Jets didn't go as planned, as he was officially released by the team this week. Our above prediction of Rodgers landing in Vegas creates a fascinating scenario because the quarterback-receiver connection runs deep here. But let's go ahead and assume neither player nor team wants to venture back down that road. Adams, 32, will likely be focused on two factors: playing for a contender and teaming up with a top quarterback. A return to the Packers checks both boxes and addresses their need for a No. 1 target.

Stefon Diggs, WR

Diggs was on pace for a seventh consecutive 1,000-yard season before a torn ACL ended his first year with the Texans. His game has a chance to age well, but a 31-year-old receiver coming off that kind of injury probably can't expect much on the open market. Could that suppressed value create a situation where Jerry Jones is actually willing to step up and improve his team in free agency? Diggs would fill a major need opposite CeeDee Lamb, and the Cowboys could get his brother, Trevon, to lead the recruiting efforts.

Amari Cooper, WR

Cooper's deadline trade to Buffalo didn't yield the expected results. He did miss some time due to injury, though, and carving out a role for yourself after joining a team midseason is easier said than done. Don't sleep on his chances to bounce back. Cooper put up a career-high 1,250 yards the year prior while catching passes from Deshaun Watson and Joe Flacco, among others. His route-running skills, most notably, haven't gone anywhere. There should be a number of contenders with a need on the outside showing interest.

Najee Harris, RB

Harris doesn't have the explosiveness to be a consistent big-play rushing threat. For many, that'll make him unworthy of the contract he's in a position to command. But he's still an every-down back who's never missed a game, and there's something to be said for his consistency. Here are Harris' rushing totals across four seasons in Pittsburgh: 1,200, 1,034, 1,035, and 1,043. The former first-rounder has plenty of tread left on his tires at 26 years old, and it seems possible that a more creative offense leads to an uptick in production. The Raiders, who had the worst running back room in football last year, could offer such an opportunity with Chip Kelly taking over as offensive coordinator.

Aaron Jones, RB

Jones remains one of the league's most underrated backs. The Packers were trying to get out in front of an inevitable drop-off when they went in a different direction last year, but he was every bit as effective with the division-rival Vikings. Jones put together his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season on a career-high 255 carries while adding another 408 yards in the passing game. The 30-year-old might be a valuable addition to an offense seeking a do-it-all weapon out of the backfield. Sean Payton's Broncos could use such a player to support Bo Nix.

J.K. Dobbins, RB

Dobbins was one of the best stories in football in 2024. Finally healthy after a brutal run of injuries in Baltimore, the former second-round pick took full advantage of his opportunity with the Chargers. Dobbins' big-play ability was on display en route to a career-high 905 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. A November knee injury cost him some time and will probably keep him from shaking the injury-prone label, but he was back in the lineup four weeks later. His best option is probably running it back on another one-year deal with the Chargers and trying to put himself in position for a payday next year.

Nick Chubb, RB

Chubb is on the downside of a spectacular career, but don't count him out just yet. The four-time Pro Bowler was back on the field in Week 7 after suffering a gruesome knee injury early in 2023. While he never quite regained his previous form before missing the last three games of the year, a full offseason could do wonders for his chances of bouncing back. Remember, it wasn't long ago that Chubb had a real case as the NFL's best pure runner. There should be several contenders interested in taking a low-risk gamble on that kind of player finding a way to stave off a steep decline.

Ronnie Stanley, OT

Stanley is easily the best offensive lineman on the market. After struggling with injuries over the four seasons prior, the longtime Ravens left tackle played 17 games in 2024. The Patriots will almost certainly be lurking here - they've got more cap space than any other team, and they desperately need to improve Drake Maye's pass protection. Is Stanley prepared to leave a perennial Super Bowl contender for a rebuild situation heading into the 10th year of his career? That feels like a long shot. The Ravens should find a way to get this done and keep a good thing going.

Cam Robinson, OT

Robinson didn't perform at a particularly high level after joining the Vikings in a midseason trade. The rest of his resume should have him poised for a substantial payday anyway. The former Jaguars second-round pick, who twice received the franchise tag in Jacksonville, is a solid starter at left tackle. Assuming the Patriots are unable to pry Stanley away from Baltimore, turning their attention to Robinson would be a logical pivot. A top-10 salary at the position is a small price to pay to help fix a dreadful offensive line.

Drew Dalman, C

Dalman's contract will probably shock some people. The 27-year-old has graded out as a top-four center in each of the last two seasons, according to PFF, and is probably the only long-term option on the market this year. Don't be surprised if the Bears step up to outbid everyone. Chicago has already been active in addressing a terrible interior offensive line ahead of Ben Johnson's first year, swinging trades for both Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney. Adding Dalman in the middle, and then perhaps a left tackle in the draft, would complete an outstanding offseason overhaul. This kind of aggressiveness is exactly what the Bears need to set Caleb Williams on a path to superstardom.