Evaluating every NFL team's projected win total for 2025

The excitement of player movement during the NFL offseason has a magical way of convincing every fan base that their team is trending up. But that can't possibly be the case.

While some teams are bound to outperform expectations, others will fall short. Let's take a swing at mapping out where each team might fall using preseason win totals available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet.

Win total: 8.5

I get the excitement about the Cardinals. I really do. They're definitely heading in the right direction. But am I going to count on nine-plus wins given Kyler Murray's inconsistent play, along with some question marks on the offensive line and at receiver? Not in the NFC West. Pick: Under (+105)

Win total: 7.5

I think the NFL's fourth-easiest schedule probably helps the Falcons clear this number. Not by much, though. Expect some ups and downs in Michael Penix Jr.'s first full year as a starter. Pick: Over (-135)

Win total: 11.5

Another playoff disappointment won't get me to back off the Ravens. It should only make them hungrier this year, and they've made some key additions to an already strong defense. Pick: Over (-120)

Win total: 11.5

Josh Allen alone is likely enough to give Buffalo a 10-win floor. I think at least one of the Bills' young pass-catchers breaks out to help the offense take another step, and I was a big fan of their defense-heavy draft class. Pick: Over (-155)

Win total: 6.5

Bryce Young's strong second half provides legitimate reason for hope in Carolina, and Tetairoa McMillan should be a great addition to that offense. The defense should also be better, but I'm not sure it'll translate to a meaningful jump in the win column. Pick: Under (+115)

Win total: 8.5

This is an extremely reasonable line considering all the hype that's accompanied Ben Johnson's arrival in Chicago. The offense could have some growing pains early on, and the Bears face a particularly challenging schedule, but I think a Dennis Allen-led defense gives them a little room for error before they hit their stride. Pick: Over (+145)

Win total: 9.5

The Bengals should have been in the playoffs last year, but missing out wasn't a matter of bad luck. They did it to themselves. And with the defense at risk of being every bit as bad this season, they just might do it again. Pick: Under (+105)

Win total: 4.5

It probably doesn't matter who the Browns end up starting at quarterback - they're not going to win many games. Cleveland has to be the early favorite to earn the No. 1 overall pick. Pick: Under (+140)

Win total: 7.5

It would be easy enough to forecast a bad season for the Cowboys simply on account of the Micah Parsons drama: He's that important to the success of this team. I tend to think they'll find a way to get a deal done, though, and I love the potential of this passing game with George Pickens added to the mix. Pick: Over (-145)

Win total: 9.5

Those of us who aren't quite swept up in the Bo Nix hype will be awfully tempted to go with the under here. Still, it's tough to imagine Denver won't at least match last year's 10 wins. Sean Payton has built an impressive ecosystem for his young quarterback, and this defense could be terrifying. Pick: Over (Even)

Win total: 10.5

Losing both coordinators and some key pieces on the offensive line could make this total a bit of a battle for the Lions. Their schedule will present a challenge, too. That said, you won't catch me forecasting single-digit wins for a team with this much talent. Pick: Over (+110)

Win total: 9.5

I've got Green Bay clearing this number pretty easily. The Packers have a top-10 offense, a top-10 defense, an ascendant young quarterback, and an elite coaching staff. They might be Philly's biggest competition in the NFC. Pick: Over (-110)

Win total: 9.5

I'm still pretty worried about this offensive line. The Texans' new scheme should help, though, putting C.J. Stroud in position for a monster season. And that defense could be incredible. Pick: Over (+105)

Win total: 7.5

The Colts still don't know who they're going to start at quarterback. Does that sound like a team you should count on to threaten the .500 mark? Pick: Under (-110)

Win total: 7.5

It's an exciting time in Jacksonville. Liam Coen should be great for Trevor Lawrence, and Travis Hunter potentially starring on both sides of the ball is going to be a lot of fun. But this roster is likely still at least a year away. Pick: Under (+100)

Win total: 11.5

The Chiefs won 15 games and went back to the Super Bowl last season despite a patchwork receiving corps and some major issues at left tackle. I think they'll be much improved at both spots in 2025, making this one a layup. Pick: Over (+105)

🏈 Check out all of the NFL win totals available at ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Win total: 6.5

The Raiders probably don't have the defensive talent to make good on Pete Carroll's plans to win right away. But with Chip Kelly running an offense that's added Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, this team could be a lot more competitive than people expect. Pick: Over (-145)

Win total: 9.5

The Chargers added several playmakers alongside Ladd McConkey. Losing Rashawn Slater hurts, but Los Angeles should still get to double-digit wins after recording 11 in the first year of the Jim Harbaugh era. Pick: Over (-120)

Win total: 9.5

This one feels a little risky with Matthew Stafford working through a preseason back injury, but I'm going to trust that he'll be just fine for Week 1. Adding Davante Adams alongside Puka Nacua could give the Rams a Super Bowl-caliber offense if their star quarterback is healthy. Pick: Over (-140)

Win total: 8.5

The Dolphins face some major question marks on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. And if they aren't clearly in a position to contend, are we certain Tyreek Hill is going to be on this roster beyond the trade deadline? Pick: Under (-185)

Win total: 8.5

I understand tempering expectations - J.J. McCarthy is going to be learning on the fly after missing his entire rookie season. At the same time, it's pretty rare that a young quarterback gets this kind of supporting cast. I'm not about to predict a six-win drop-off just because the Vikings lost Sam Darnold. Pick: Over (-150)

Win total: 8.5

In one offseason, Mike Vrabel and his staff have done an incredible job of turning over this roster and laying a foundation for the future. The Patriots should be a lot better under his watch in 2025, but nine-plus wins feels like too much, too soon. Pick: Under (-120)

Win total: 5.5

This may seem like a low number for a team with the third-easiest schedule in football. Take a look at that quarterback room and it'll start to make perfect sense. Pick: Under (-150)

Win total: 5.5

The Giants do have some talent; Malik Nabers is already one of the best receivers in football, and this defensive line is going to be a nightmare to block. The rest of the roster is a work in progress. And the NFL's hardest schedule makes it extremely difficult to pick out many wins. Pick: Under (-130)

Win total: 5.5

The Jets' defense could be in for a huge bounce-back year under Aaron Glenn. While the passing offense might cap the team's ceiling, a run game led by Justin Fields and Breece Hall with a suddenly stout offensive line could be enough to top this total. Pick: Over (-140)

Win total: 11.5

The Eagles didn't truly reach peak form until the latter stages of last year's Super Bowl run. Yet they still won 14 games during the regular season. This is a young roster that could be even better in 2025. Pick: Over (+110)

Win total: 8.5

Mike Tomlin's incredible 18-year run without a losing season now depends on a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers. We can appreciate the Steelers' willingness to embrace the win-now approach, but there's a real chance that this thing goes absolutely nowhere. Pick: Under (+100)

Win total: 10.5

The 49ers aren't without their share of potential concerns. They lost a ton of talent on defense, the offensive line could still be a problem, and Brandon Aiyuk likely won't be ready for the start of the season. But their schedule seems incredibly favorable for a Kyle Shanahan team with this much star power. Pick: Over (+105)

Win total: 8.5

Seattle's defense should be even better in Year 2 under Mike Macdonald. Can the offense do enough to match? I'm not convinced Sam Darnold will be the same kind of player outside of Minnesota. Pick: Under (-150)

Win total: 9.5

Is it just me, or have the Bucs become criminally underrated? Even if Liam Coen's departure hurts, this offense has too much talent to stop operating at an extremely high level. Double-digit wins feel pretty safe, especially in this division. Pick: Over (+100)

Win total: 5.5

Cam Ward's arrival gives the Titans some much-needed hope for the future. He can't realistically be expected to put the team on his back right out of the gate, though. Tennessee might have to wait another year before making a big jump. Pick: Under (+125)

Win total: 9.5

I'm fully aware that this could look pretty silly in hindsight. The Commanders were one win away from the Super Bowl in Year 1 of their rebuild. But their schedule is more challenging this season, and I'm not sure they did enough to bolster the defense. Pick: Under (+100)

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.