Boom or Bench: Start/sit tips for opening round of fantasy playoffs

Boom or Bench provides insight and analysis to help you handle your difficult fantasy football starting lineup decisions every week.

QB: Giants' Jaxson Dart vs. Commanders

Dart returned from a two-game absence against the Patriots at the beginning of December and struggled to make a large fantasy impact. Although New England held him to 139 passing yards, a passing touchdown, and 20 rushing yards, its defense ranks 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This week, Dart faces the Commanders and their 27th-ranked unit.

The 22-year-old should also benefit from coming off the team's bye week. Dart's another week removed from his injury, and the Giants have enjoyed additional preparation for a division rival. Additionally, Washington has given up the fifth-most passing yards and is tied for third in touchdown passes surrendered with 26.

Projection: 211 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 54 rushing yards, rushing TD

Other QBs primed to boom:

• Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons

• Commanders' Marcus Mariota at Giants

RB: Jaguars' Travis Etienne vs. Jets

Few matchups are more appealing this week than Etienne facing the Jets. The 26-year-old has finished as RB11 or better in five of his last six contests, and he's fresh off a surprisingly effective game against the Colts in which he tallied 82 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 21 touches.

The Jets sit 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Only three teams have surrendered more rushing yards, and no team has given up more touchdowns to the position than New York's 19 (15 rushing, four receiving).

Projection: 104 rushing yards, 17 receiving yards, 2 receptions, TD

RB: Vikings' Aaron Jones at Cowboys

Jones has finished as RB12 twice this season. He should have one of his best opportunities to best that in this game, as Dallas has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per contest to running backs. While the 14 touchdowns the Cowboys have surrendered are a major factor, the receiving yards they've conceded have also played a significant role.

Jones has received at least four targets in four of his last five outings, and he recorded his second-highest carry total of the campaign last week against the Commanders. Good volume and touchdown upside make Jones a strong flex option.

Projection: 64 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards, 4 receptions, TD

Other RBs primed to boom:

• Giants' Tyrone Tracy vs. Commanders (Be sure to monitor Tracy's status since he's dealing with a hip injury)

• Saints' Devin Neal vs. Panthers

WR: Browns' Jerry Jeudy at Bears

The Bears' defense has struggled to stop wide receivers this year, allowing more fantasy points per game to the position than all but three teams. Opposing wideouts have racked up 138 receptions for 1,934 yards and 18 touchdowns against Chicago. Notably, only two teams have given up more TDs.

Jeudy is fresh off one of his best games of the year, with his 76-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Titans earning him his second WR12 finish of the campaign. I expect him to get more than the five targets he received last week, as the Browns continue to evaluate Shedeur Sanders' play. Although the forecast calls for frigid temperatures, I don't think it'll completely negate Jeudy in this advantageous matchup for him.

Projection: 81 receiving yards, 5 receptions, TD

WR: Buccaneers' Emeka Egbuka vs. Falcons

Egbuka got off to a red-hot start to the campaign but has struggled a bit over the last four weeks, finishing with no more than 6.5 half-PPR points. While most of his recent opponents have been above average at defending wideouts, the Falcons can't say the same. Ranking 22nd overall against the receivers, Atlanta has surrendered 16 touchdowns to the position.

Egbuka has already shown he can take advantage of the Falcons, too. He finished as WR3 with 67 yards and two touchdowns on four receptions when these teams faced off in Week 1.

Projection: 94 receiving yards, 6 receptions, TD

Other WRs primed to boom:

• Vikings' Jordan Addison at Cowboys

• Giants' Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Commanders

TE: Colts' Tyler Warren at Seahawks

I'm worried about the Colts' wide receivers for various reasons, but I really like Warren against the Seahawks. Only the Bengals have allowed more receptions and receiving yards to tight ends. Kyle Pitts also led the Falcons with 90 yards on six catches last week against Seattle, and Warren is set up for a similar outing.

Whichever quarterback starts for Indianapolis should be looking for Warren early and often as a security blanket. The rookie tight end has seen at least six targets in four of his last five games, and he could approach double-digit looks Sunday.

Projection: 69 receiving yards, TD, 7 receptions

Other TEs primed to boom:

• Bills' Dalton Kincaid at Patriots

• Ravens' Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely at Bengals

QB: Packers' Jordan Love at Broncos

The Broncos have given up just 13 touchdown passes to quarterbacks this year and rank 10th in passing yards allowed (193 yards per game). That makes this a tough matchup for any signal-caller, never mind one like Love, who has struggled to put up fantasy points against top defenses.

Over his last five contests against top 10 defenses, Love has averaged 181.8 passing yards and 0.2 passing touchdowns per game. He's not likely to throw more than one touchdown versus Denver, and even that isn't guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow at this point in the fantasy season.

Projection: 193 passing yards, TD, INT, 6 rushing yards

Other QBs to bench:

• Bears' Caleb Williams vs. Browns

• Broncos' Bo Nix vs. Packers

RB: Seahawks' Kenneth Walker vs. Colts

I'd feel better about starting Walker over Zach Charbonnet, but I don't love either this week. The Colts have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game but the fourth-most passing yards, suggesting increased opportunities for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the air game.

Plus, Walker is coming off a letdown outing against the Falcons. Atlanta, notably, gives up more fantasy points to opposing running backs, but the 25-year-old recorded just 3.3 half-PPR points and only 28 scrimmage yards.

Projection: 38 rushing yards, 8 receiving yards, 1 reception

RB: Lions' David Montgomery at Rams

The Rams rank eighth in rushing yards allowed to running backs this season and have given up the 12th-most receiving yards to the position. Montgomery already plays behind Jahmyr Gibbs, but this matchup is far more suited to Gibbs' skill set than Montgomery's.

It's hard to see Montgomery making a huge fantasy impact Sunday, even if he gets a solid number of touches. He may vulture a touchdown from Gibbs, but that's more likely to limit Gibbs' ceiling than to make Montgomery a valuable starting option. He finished with fewer than 14 fantasy points in each of the last two games despite scoring in both.

Projection: 34 rushing yards

Other RBs to bench:

• Jets' Breece Hall at Jaguars

• Rams' Blake Corum vs. Lions

WR: Jaguars' Jakobi Meyers vs Jets

Meyers has made a big impact since the Jaguars acquired him in a trade, but he isn't likely to play a big role against the Jets. New York's defense ranks 10th in limiting wide receiver fantasy points, thanks in part to being tied for eighth in fewest receiving touchdowns allowed to the position (nine).

Meyers has three consecutive games with at least 12.8 fantasy points, but he posted a touchdown in each of them. The veteran wouldn't have accumulated more than 12.3 points in any of those contests if not for the scores.

Projection: 61 receiving yards, 5 receptions

WR: Colts' Alec Pierce at Seahawks

I wouldn't feel great about starting Michael Pittman Jr., but I'm more worried about Pierce's fantasy outlook without Daniel Jones under center. The 6-foot-3, 211-pounder does most of his work as a deep threat, evidenced by his league-best 20.2 yards per reception. Whether it's Riley Leonard, Brett Rypien, or Philip Rivers taking the snaps, Pierce will have spent less time working with them than Jones, making connecting on those downfield shots more difficult.

The Seahawks boast the sixth-best defense at limiting fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They've also given up the fewest yards to the position and are tied with the Jets in touchdowns surrendered with nine. I'd avoid all of the Colts' wide receivers.

Projection: 38 receiving yards, 3 receptions

Other WRs to bench:

• Cardinals' Michael Wilson at Texans

• Chiefs' Xavier Worthy vs. Chargers

TE: Patriots' Hunter Henry vs. Bills

Only the Eagles have allowed fewer receiving yards to tight ends this year than the Bills, while only the Falcons have surrendered fewer touchdowns. Also, no team has conceded fewer receptions to the position. The numbers point to Buffalo being the league's top defense against tight ends this campaign, giving up just 37 receptions for 441 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games.

Henry has been productive lately, but he failed to make much of an impact in the first matchup between these teams. The 31-year-old finished with 5.6 half-PPR points after recording two receptions for 46 yards in Week 5 at Buffalo. A similarly underwhelming performance is likely.

Projection: 33 receiving yards, 3 receptions

Other TEs to bench:

• Chargers' Oronde Gadsden at Chiefs

• Cowboys' Jake Ferguson vs. Vikings

Andrew Dixon is a contributing fantasy analyst for theScore.