Sunday Rundown: Key takeaways from Week 16's biggest games

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Sunday night spotlight

Patriots just getting started

Sunday night's win over the Ravens officially sends the Patriots back to the playoffs after a three-year layoff. And based on everything we've seen throughout the first year of the Mike Vrabel era, it may only be the beginning of another annual tradition. There's been a lot of talk about New England being a team that benefitted from a soft schedule. With that in mind, many were probably expecting last week's collapse against the Bills to be the beginning of a humbling fall back down to earth. The Patriots bouncing back the way they did this week, slamming the door on a desperate Ravens team, should kill off those narratives once and for all. This team is more than worthy of its standing near the top of the conference. Vrabel has completely flipped the culture for an organization that had fallen on some unfamiliar hard times. It didn't take long for him to lay the foundation for another good defense and, most importantly, he's got one of the best quarterbacks in football. Drake Maye leading an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback to cap off a 380-yard day both drives home his MVP case and confirms the Patriots are going to be a problem in the AFC playoffs.

Ravens on the ropes

Those of us who thought it was only a matter of time before the Ravens made their way back to the top of the AFC North (*raises hand*) are looking a little misguided now. The Steelers are now a Week 17 win over the Browns away from wrapping up the AFC North and eliminating Baltimore from the playoffs for the first time since 2021. In fairness, it's not like it was easy to see this coming. The Ravens were arguably the best team in football down the stretch last year, and it seemed like they had only gotten better in the offseason. As it turns out, sustaining that level of success isn't so easy. While the defense has mostly found a way to piece it all together after another slow start, the offense hasn't clicked at all this season. Lamar Jackson missing time didn't help, and having to turn to Tyler Huntley again mid-game against the Patriots was a crushing blow, but there was still a clear path to closing out this must-win game. Derrick Henry not seeing the field on what could have been a put-away drive midway through the fourth quarter is one of the many reasons this coaching staff should be feeling the pressure heading into the offseason. The talent is still there for this team to be a contender. Something else probably has to change if they're going to make the most of it next year.

Late-afternoon games

Steelers stun Lions

I have to be honest: I really didn't think the Steelers had a chance Sunday afternoon in Detroit. I'm sure I wasn't alone, either. Considering Pittsburgh's issues on both sides of the ball, which have sparked questions about the future of this coaching staff, it felt like the perfect matchup for a desperate Lions team. Instead, we got a reminder of why Mike Tomlin has been virtually untouchable nearly two decades in. The chaotic win sees Pittsburgh improve to 9-6, officially locking in a 19th straight non-losing season for Tomlin. The defense finally found its footing against the run, bottling up Detroit's star backs and forcing the Lions' offense into an uncomfortable pass-heavy game plan. Arthur Smith's offense is doing a good job of creatively using tight ends to make up for a lack of depth at receiver, and a stagnant run game finally broke out with 230 yards, the most the Lions have allowed since 2022. We'll see if it lasts, but the Steelers look a whole lot more interesting than they did three weeks ago.

Lions pretty much done

The Lions did manage to make things interesting at the end. For a second, before an offensive pass interference call ultimately ended the game, it even seemed like Detroit had saved its season in the most chaotic fashion. It wasn't to be, though, and the 8-7 Lions now need a miracle to get in the playoffs. While one could easily make the case that this is the kind of team nobody would want to meet in the postseason, the Lions have no one to blame but themselves for the reality that they probably won't be there. The offense just hasn't been the same after an offseason in which the unit lost both Ben Johnson and some key pieces up front. Most notably, the Lions have now tumbled all the way to a 25th-ranked standing in rush success rate after finishing as a top-four unit last year, according to TruMedia. The recent defensive struggles are equally as alarming, with Detroit now sitting tied for 31st in EPA/play over the last five weeks. The Lions will be an obvious rebound candidate next year, but this isn't a matter of a bad-luck team just needing a few bounces. Getting back to the heights of the last few years will have to start with additions to the offensive line and some schematic fine-tuning on both sides of the ball.

Jaguars here already

The Jaguars might be the story of the season. It was easy enough to shrug off their hot start, as some continued struggles from Trevor Lawrence had seemingly put a ceiling on any Year 1 ascent under Liam Coen. But Jacksonville just kept winning. And then came the Lawrence breakthrough. I wrote last week, on the heels of a second straight outstanding quarterback performance, that this team would be dangerous if it continued. Well, it's continuing. Any concerns about the improved play being a result of a soft stretch in the schedule can probably be put to rest after another big game against the Broncos. The Jaguars' passing attack delivered the ultimate statement en route to a 34-20 win in Denver, with Lawrence overcoming an absent run game to complete 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He also added a score on the ground, giving him a league-high 17 total scores over the last five games. Lawrence and the Jaguars probably won't get widespread recognition until they make some noise in the playoffs, but that is very much on the table now. Everything is coming together under Coen faster than anyone could have expected. If the Jaguars enter the playoffs as a top-two seed in the AFC, I don't know how the Coach of the Year award could go to anyone else.

Early kickoffs

Chargers keep rolling

The Chargers had the makings of a legitimate contender early this season. Those Super Bowl dreams appeared to be dead when Joe Alt's season-ending injury completed the decimation of the offensive line, but they've found a way to power through. A convincing victory over the Cowboys gives Los Angeles its seventh win over the last eight games. While I will likely remain skeptical that a team allowing a league-worst 123 quarterback hits can survive some of the treacherous matchups they'd likely have to conquer in the AFC playoffs (Houston and Denver), Herbert playing the way he did this week would go a long way toward hiding any such deficiencies. The Chargers quarterback was nearly perfect in Dallas, completing 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns while adding 42 rushing yards and another score on the ground. Crucially, he was 9-for-11 for 108 yards and one touchdown against pressure, according to Next Gen Stats. It's the best game of his career by EPA/dropback, and it marks the first time he hasn't taken a sack since December 2024. All qualifiers about the Cowboys' defense aside, this version of Herbert makes the Chargers a player in an AFC playoff field lacking a true top dog.

Chiefs without Mahomes

Predictably, the Chiefs are an excruciating watch without Patrick Mahomes under center. On one hand, it's easy to come up with excuses for Sunday's performance against the Titans. When you're used to playing for Super Bowls at this time of year, it has to be hard to go through the motions for meaningless December football. And this team has to be reeling after losing its star quarterback to a major knee injury. But on the other hand, a 26-9 loss to the worst team in the league illustrates the work that needs to be done when it comes to improving the team around Mahomes for the Chiefs to get back on track next year.

Toilet Bowl inbound

The Titans moving to 3-11 by knocking off the Chiefs leaves the Giants and Raiders as the lone remaining two-win teams. New York and Las Vegas just so happen to meet next week. The loser will be in pole position for the No. 1 overall pick for a class that, depending on the declaration decision from Dante Moore, may only have one quarterback worthy of an early pick. The Raiders getting Fernando Mendoza without having to trade up could be invaluable for the future of the franchise. Given the number of teams in the market for a new quarterback, the Giants could shop the pick for multiple first-rounders. Don't rule out some additional chaos if Las Vegas is the one in possession of the No. 1 pick heading into Week 18, though. The Raiders close out the season against the suddenly putrid Chiefs. After years of terrorizing its long-suffering division rival, Kansas City mailing it in and serving up an unwanted win could inadvertently spoil the fun for a fan base desperate for some semblance of hope.

Panthers in control

The Panthers have been on a roller-coaster ride for much of this season, alternating wins and losses every time out since the middle of October. That trend continued this week, as they took down the Bucs to bounce back from a loss to the Saints. The critical victory gives Carolina a one-game lead atop the NFC South, setting the stage for an opportunity to clinch the division next week if the Bucs lose. While it may be tough to get it done with a game against the top-seeded Seahawks up next, the important part is that the Panthers are in full control of their own destiny. Even with a loss to Seattle, Carolina can secure the division title with another win over Tampa Bay in the regular-season finale. A clear talent advantage may well see the Bucs entering the rematch as the favorites, but we're still waiting for that to make a difference in the win column. The four-time defending NFC South champs have been spiraling over the second half of the season, dropping six of their last seven games, with the lone win being a three-point victory over the lowly Cardinals. This is Carolina's division to lose.

No choice for Vikings

J.J. McCarthy was forced to leave Sunday's win over the Giants. He appears to have avoided any broken bones, but considering it's an issue with his throwing hand, it seems possible that his status will be in doubt for the last two games of the season. And while he had looked more comfortable over the last few weeks, a pair of games against defenses like that of the Cowboys and Commanders were never going to be enough to inspire confidence after a disastrous start. So not only do the Vikings potentially head into a new season not having a real sense of McCarthy's trajectory, but he's also now dealing with yet another injury. Both factors should lead to Minnesota adding a capable veteran in the offseason. That doesn't mean the Vikings have to hold an open competition - if McCarthy proves to be the guy, great. But a team with this much talent can't bet another entire season on it. The Vikings should be aggressive in pursuing an insurance plan.

Bengals bounce back

The Dolphins don't exactly provide the best measuring stick, but it sure was nice to see the Bengals bounce back from last week's shutout. Finally having put together a stronger offensive line in front of Joe Burrow, this 45-point output was a taste of the scoring potential we could have seen throughout the season were it not for an extended absence from the superstar quarterback. It may not have been enough for this team to contend with the defense stuck near the bottom of the league in all major statistical categories, but it's a reminder of what's possible if that group can even sniff league-average production. Now the question is whether we have any reason to believe the notoriously conservative Bengals front office can create that.

McDaniel safe?

A Sunday morning report from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport suggested that Mike McDaniel's job was likely safe barring some sort of surprise. Does a 45-21 loss to the Bengals qualify? Maybe not. It's not like the expectations should've been high with the Dolphins turning to seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers for his first NFL start. Then again, it appears the head coach was banking on the quarterback change to provide a spark. According to Rapoport, McDaniel "believes Quinn Ewers is what his offense needs to run properly." Even a matchup with a league-worst Bengals defense couldn't help support such an idea. Cincinnati's 58.6% defensive success rate in Sunday's game was its best of the season. McDaniel might need some less embarrassing results over the last two weeks of the season to ensure he returns in 2026.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.