Kaprizov's MVP case, biggest cap-spike winners, and 5 other NHL items

In today's offense-charged NHL, a serious Hart Trophy candidate must possess some brand of inevitability. He must be the caliber of player who finds a way to directly impact the outcome of the game, virtually every game.

Kirill Kaprizov showcased this trait earlier this week by turning a sleepy Tuesday night contest in St. Louis into a 4-2 Wild victory thanks to a two-goal third period. It wasn't some triumphant performance, either. No, the 27-year-old winger scoring six minutes into the third to make it 2-1 and then putting the game away with an empty-netter felt inevitable more than anything else.

Carrying the Wild is simply what Kaprizov does at this point in his career.

"He's been unbelievable, so I would think so," Wild general manager Bill Guerin said of Kaprizov being the Hart front-runner at this season's quarter mark. "There are other guys having good starts. But I just think when you look at what Kirill means to our team, what he does for our team every night, man, he's been having a pretty big impact on what's been going on."

What exactly's been going on? The 12-3-3 Wild are tied for third in points percentage (.750) and rank sixth in goal differential (plus-18), despite playing 11 of 18 games on the road. On a per-game basis, Minnesota is tied for first in goals allowed (2.33) and tied for ninth in goals generated (3.39). The team has sharp underlying numbers, holds leads, and doesn't take many penalties.

In other words, the Wild are way better than most pundits thought they'd be.

It all starts with Kaprizov, whose 33 points trail only Nathan MacKinnon's 34. He leads or co-leads all NHLers in points per game (1.83), primary points (27), and even-strength points (19). He's racked up 14 more points than any teammate and sits fourth among all NHL forwards in average ice time (a career-high 22:21 spread across all situations). He's recorded more three-point nights (six) than pointless nights (three) and is on pace for 150 points.

Kaprizov, whose previous best showing in Hart voting was seventh in 2021-22, is a unique player. He's super crafty but also powerful. He's a sniper but also a playmaker. He's a transition wizard but also responsible defensively.

What's one thing Guerin feels people might overlook about his superstar?

"It's gotta be his competitiveness," the GM said. "He's not one of these guys who sits on the sidelines. He's in the trenches. He gets into 50-50 puck battles and wins them. He goes to the ugly areas of the ice, battles like crazy."

Kaprizov was drafted by former Wild GM Paul Fenton in the fifth round, 135th overall, in 2015. Guerin signed him out of the KHL in 2020. When asked which area of the game Kaprizov has improved most in four-plus years, Guerin gave the question some thought before touching on the behind-the-scenes vibe.

"The day-to-day leadership. The role he's playing within the team," Guerin said. "He's more comfortable being vocal and expressing his feelings about what he wants, what he thinks. That's really important for us, for our team."

Salary-cap spike winners

Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported last weekend that the upper limit of the 2025-26 salary cap could land in the range of $95 million and $97 million.

A spike requires negotiation between the NHL and the NHL Players' Association, and commissioner Gary Bettman downplayed Friedman's report Tuesday. "Anything's possible," Bettman told reporters, before noting that the numbers included in Friedman's report "weren't anywhere close to accurate."

Friedman's a respected, plugged-in reporter. We can assume there's at the very least a decent chance the upper limit - currently $88 million - rises by around $8 million. Some teams would benefit more than others from an unusually big jump. Here's a quick rundown of the biggest potential winners:

Wild: Minnesota will have $13 million freed up regardless of what happens with the upper limit since the dead money tied to the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts shrinks from $14.7 million to $1.7 million starting next season. Kaprizov, who's eligible to sign an extension on July 1, 2025, will likely eat up a chunk of the new money. Top-six center Marco Rossi, a pending restricted free agent, probably signs a long-term extension, too. Even after those deals, the Wild should have flexibility to add quality NHLers via trade or free agency.

Lightning: Tampa Bay's been bleeding talent the past few offseasons and will be paying five players a combined $45.5 million in 2025-26. A cap spike would give the front office a little breathing room. The Lightning could finally pursue proven role players instead of filling the third and fourth forward lines and third defenseman pairing with complete unknowns. They could even sign a goalie with upside to help ease the workload for starter Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Stars: Dallas has done an incredible job balancing its books during a period in which the club has been both contending for the Stanley Cup and signing key young pieces to long-term deals. A spike would be terrific timing, really. Jamie Benn's $8.7-million cap hit will be wiped from the slate as negotiations with Wyatt Johnston (21, 2025 RFA) and Thomas Harley (23, 2026 RFA) heat up.

Oilers, Rangers, Maple Leafs: These three are grouped together because important extensions loom large. Edmonton's priorities are Connor McDavid (2026 UFA) and Evan Bouchard (2025 RFA). New York's are Igor Shesterkin (2025 UFA), Artemi Panarin (2026 UFA), K'Andre Miller (2025 RFA), and Ryan Lindgren (2025 UFA). Toronto's are Mitch Marner (2025 UFA), John Tavares (2025 UFA), Matthew Knies (2025 RFA), and Anthony Stolarz (2026 UFA).

Isles' Tsyplakov finding his way

NHL front offices battle for the hottest free agent out of Russia every spring.

The signings can work out fantastically well, like Panarin blossoming into a superstar. Or quickly become disasters, like Vadim Shipachyov having his contract terminated three games into his Golden Knights tenure. Or go from thrilling to unremarkable, like Andrei Kuzmenko bursting onto the scene with 39 goals in 81 games before settling in as a depth piece on the Canucks and Flames.

It's too early in Maxim Tsyplakov's North American journey to state anything definitively. However, the 26-year-old winger who previously played exclusively in Russia has shown flashes of brilliance through 19 NHL games.

Tsyplakov's put up a respectable two goals and eight assists for the offense-starved Islanders. New York's outscored the opposition 11-8 and owned 58% of the expected goals in Tsyplakov's 195 five-on-five minutes with fellow second-liners Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, according to Evolving-Hockey.

"He plays with a lot of poise. He protects the puck really well. He creates a lot of space with his feet and strength," Palmieri told theScore in early November.

"Not only is he learning a new language and a new culture, but he's also learning a new system, a new league. It's a big adjustment, right? And he's adjusting well so far. He's continuing to get more comfortable every day."

Tsyplakov ranks first on the club in hits (55), second in takeaways (nine), and tied for fourth in points (10) - all positive signs. The black marks on his resume right now: first in minor penalties taken (eight) and fourth in giveaways (18).

"I want him to cut down on turnovers," Isles head coach Patrick Roy told reporters Monday. "If he does that, that line's going to be very dangerous."

Quick hits

Ovi math: What a buzzkill to see Alex Ovechkin on the Capitals' injured list. The legendarily durable winger is considered "week-to-week" after suffering a leg injury Monday. To me, "week-to-week" translates to a minimum of three weeks off. How might this timeline affect the all-time goals chase? For argument's sake, let's say Ovechkin returns exactly four weeks later. He'd miss 11 games and thus need 27 goals in the Caps' final 53 games to break Wayne Gretzky's hallowed record. That's a 42-goal pace over a full season. While Ovi certainly could bag 27 more this year, it's more likely the chase continues next season, when he'll be 40 and in the final year of his contract.

Swiss Selke: Devils captain Nico Hischier is having a monstrous year. He's producing at a point-per-game clip and providing Selke Trophy-caliber defense. New Jersey's allowed just 1.2 goals per 60 minutes during Hischier's five-on-five shifts, which often feature the opposition's top offensive weapons. In all situations, the Brig, Switzerland, native sits fourth in puck-battle wins per game and is tied for 19th in faceoff percentage. He's also a key member of a top-10 penalty kill. A personal favorite: Hischier's rocking a plus-13 penalty differential through 21 games - 13 minors drawn, zero taken.

Stingiest pairs: There are 172 pairings that have spent 50 or more five-on-five minutes together this season. But only two have yet to be on the ice for a single goal against - Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin are up 2-0 in 54 minutes, and Juuso Valimaki and Michael Kesselring are up 4-0 in 79 minutes. The Wild pair has name value. The Utah pair is relatively unknown. Valimaki, 26, is a reliable, no-frills veteran who broke into the NHL in 2018. Kesselring, 24, is a sophomore with serious two-way potential. He's large (6-4, 215 pounds), super quick (88th percentile league-wide in skating speed), and can rip the puck (104-mph shot on Oct. 24 counts as the second-fastest of the year).

Load management: First Leo Carlsson in Anaheim, now Will Smith in San Jose. For the second straight season, an NHL team is limiting a high-profile rookie's workload. Smith, the fourth pick in 2023, has appeared in 17 of the Sharks' 21 games, recording four points while, at times, looking overwhelmed by the pro game. Three of Smith's four scratches have come on the first or second leg of a back-to-back. GM Mike Grier has said this load-management approach is supported by sports science data and involves Smith spending extra time in the gym. Two cases don't make a full-on trend. Still, one former NHL coach said the Ducks and Sharks are coddling their players. "The NHL is not a developmental league," the coach said. "There's a specific league for developing, and it's called the American Hockey League. Let them get used to the pro grind down there, make their big mistakes there."

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).