6 Battle of Ontario thoughts ahead of pivotal Game 3
The Maple Leafs have a 2-0 lead in a playoff series for the first time since 2002, and the Senators are hosting a playoff game for the first time since 2017. The ever-entertaining Battle of Ontario resumes Thursday night at the Canadian Tire Centre. Here are six thoughts on the matchup heading into Game 3.
Senators need to put out PK fire
Everything in this series, which began with 6-2 and 3-2 Leafs victories in Toronto, flows downstream from the talent gap at forward.
The Senators simply don't have what the Leafs have in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Nor do they have an answer for a top power-play unit featuring those three, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies.
Toronto's capitalized on four of seven power-play opportunities. Each goal has followed an offensive zone faceoff win, with the five-forward unit needing just nine, three, eight, and 18 seconds of PP time to find the back of the net. The Leafs' stars are picking apart the Senators' diamond formation by moving the puck frequently, not overthinking shot selection, and crashing the crease.
It can be difficult for a team to change its special teams strategy mid-series. However, pivoting to a less aggressive penalty-killing scheme would be worth a try given the dire results. The ultimate pivot, of course, would be taking fewer penalties. The officiating standard has been set. Time to adhere to it.
Leafs stifling dangerous Stutzle
Ottawa gains two things in Game 3: the home crowd and last change.
Head coach Travis Green's No. 1 task is obvious to all parties. Get Tim Stutzle, the Sens' best offensive player, away from the Leafs' best defensive players.
The series' five-on-five numbers heavily favor Stutzle and linemates Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux (85% of the shot attempts, 71% of the expected goals). Yet, the Sens' top trio has struggled to infiltrate the middle of the ice.
There's been a Leaf waiting with an active stick or body check seemingly every time Stutzle's tried to attack off the rush. Sometimes it's Matthews, Marner, or Knies. Other times it's Jake McCabe or Chris Tanev. Those five have seen plenty of Stutzle so far and fared well steering him to the perimeter.
Green should target the Max Domi line and the Simon Benoit-Oliver Ekman-Larsson pairing as much as possible in hopes that Stutzle can occasionally roam free.
As for the rest of the lineup, how about promoting Fabian Zetterlund? A natural goal-scorer currently on the fourth line, Zetterlund's earned either the 1LW or 2LW spot over Giroux or David Perron by pushing the pace, getting in on the forecheck, and laying hits. It would be a low-risk, high reward move for Green.
Leafs depth providing answers and questions
Speaking of mixing and matching, Toronto head coach Craig Berube elevated Pontus Holmberg to his second line midway through Game 1 and looks smart for it.
Holmberg has fit in seamlessly as Tavares and Nylander's third wheel. The trio is up 1-0 in 15 five-on-five minutes together thanks in part to Holmberg's blue-collar work. He's made little chip plays to keep the action moving in the right direction, extended possessions by protecting the puck, and drawn two penalties. The oft-forgotten Leaf even had a breakaway early in Game 2.
The fourth line of Scott Laughton between Calle Jarnkrok and Steven Lorentz is also off to a promising start. The same can't be said about the "what exactly do you do around here?" line of Bobby McMann, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. Domi's Game 2 overtime goal (rightfully) overshadows how ineffective he's been on the whole, especially compared to 4C Laughton.
Starting goalies on opposite paths
Sens goalie Linus Ullmark allowed six goals in Game 1. It felt like a mulligan for the 2023 Vezina Trophy winner since he was left out to dry multiple times.
Ullmark wasn't horrendous in Game 2, but he wasn't nearly good enough, again. No goalie gets two mulligans in two games. The Swede has let his club down and neither can afford another subpar goaltending performance.
Anthony Stolarz, meanwhile, has been in complete control, stopping 57 of 61 shots while outplaying his environment a bit at 1.93 goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. He hasn't lost since March 15.
The Sens have outshot the Leafs in both games and are no doubt trying to rally behind that fact internally. One issue: Toronto boasted a league-best 33-12-2 record when outshot during the regular season. The defensive shell hardens quickly if the Leafs gain a lead. Ottawa needs the first goal.
Signature performance incoming?
Part of the Sens' conundrum relates to Jake Sanderson's and Thomas Chabot's lack of dynamism to their games right now. Neither is initiating or joining the rush with the usual probing creativity.
The Leafs' neutral-zone forecheck has played a major role in keeping a lid on the Sens' explosiveness. We also can't discount the human element - this is all new for playoff rookies Sanderson, Chabot, and other young Sens. Everybody goes through an adjustment period. How long it lasts is the tricky question.
Can one of the stud blue-liners, captain Tkachuk, Stutzle, or Drake Batherson deliver a signature performance for Ottawa before it's too late? Leafs fans know all too well what it feels like to wait for a dominant, MVP game from a star player.
On that note, Matthews and Knies are prime candidates to pop off in Game 3. Both have been excellent - winning puck battles, causing turnovers, blocking shots, generating scoring chances - but have just one goal between them for Toronto.
Greig chaos watch officially on
The stage is set for some kind of Ridly Greig-related chaos.
Maybe it's a controversial goal where the Sens winger accidentally-on-purpose falls onto Stolarz as the puck crosses the line. Or maybe a penalty's drawn through pure agitation. Or a penalty's taken by Greig himself because he lets emotions get in the way of playing quality hockey. Who knows.
But it sure feels like, no matter who ultimately wins Game 3, Greig will be in the middle of it. Remember, this is the guy who blasted a one-timer into an empty net in a 2024 regular-season game before eating a wicked Morgan Rielly cross-check. Greig's had one of his sticks snapped in half by Matthews, been called "annoying" by Knies, and been the target of many Stolarz whacks.
What are the consequences of whatever shenanigans unfold Thursday?
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).