Who's for real? What to make of NHL standings at Thanksgiving mark

Turkey. Stuffing. Football. Awkward dinner table conversations.

All these things are closely associated with Thanksgiving in the United States.

But there's an important NHL tie-in, too. Roughly 50 days since opening night, the holiday serves as a natural inflection point for the season. History suggests that the majority of teams in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving will remain there come April.

The salary cap era spans 17 full seasons. In three of those campaigns, 11 of the 16 teams holding a playoff spot at Thanksgiving went on to compete in the postseason. Seven times, 12 of 16 clubs stayed in the playoff picture. In six years, 13 of 16 teams held on, and in one season - 2008-09 - 14 of 16. The cap-era average: 12.3 of 16 teams, or 77% of the playoff field, are already decided by Thanksgiving.

With this trend in mind, let's assess each conference's current state.

Eastern Conference

Just below cutline: Montreal, Philadelphia, Detroit, Columbus, Rangers

Who's for real?

Forget the last few games, Carolina is the scariest team in a wide-open East. Rivals should be worried about the challenge the Hurricanes will present once stud defenseman Jaccob Slavin returns from injury, blazing winger Nikolaj Ehlers starts burying his scoring chances, and management pulls off its annual high-profile trade. The Canes have $11 million in salary cap space.

Tampa Bay deserves props for holding down the Atlantic Division's top seed while battling significant blue-line injuries. (How about a little Jack Adams Award love for Lightning coach Jon Cooper?) Washington's also a bona fide threat. The Capitals' place in the standings (third in the Metropolitan) hardly reflects their conference-high goal differential, strong underlying numbers, and deep lineup.

Although New Jersey is without superstar center Jack Hughes until mid-January, the Devils have already banked a ton of points and roster more than enough talent at each position to secure a Metro seed. Ottawa, meanwhile, has quietly become a high-floor team (wild card at worst) thanks to coach Travis Green's defensive system and player buy-in over the past two seasons.

Who's overachieving?

The Islanders, Pittsburgh, and Boston are all due to regress in some way.

The Islanders are unquestionably fun. Bo Horvat and Mat Barzal look rejuvenated alongside rookie sensation Matthew Schaefer, and allowing just 2.79 goals per game is an impressive feat given how porous Patrick Roy's squad can be defensively. This feels a little too good to be true, though.

The Penguins are first in power play percentage, second in save percentage, fifth in penalty kill percentage, and ninth in shooting percentage. Some of the Penguins' success is well-earned and it'd be great to see Sidney Crosby back in the playoffs. But at some point the numbers are going to turn on a team that was supposed to be rebuilding.

The Bruins are a mix of New York and Pittsburgh. They're undoubtedly an early-season darling, yet the roster thins out quickly, and what they've put on tape so far doesn't exactly scream "sustainable." Can Boston keep this up for 82 games?

Who might move up?

Toronto and the Rangers, the biggest disappointments of the NHL's first quarter, have dug massive holes. A bounce back, while not impossible, is highly unlikely for the patently flawed Maple Leafs. Mismanaged New York is fighting against the current in an extremely competitive Metro.

Pittsburgh, Montreal, and Philadelphia are tied for fourth in the conference in points percentage. Led by Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and a host of other young difference-makers, the Canadiens are by far the best bet to jump into a playoff spot sooner than later and stay there. Montreal's biggest roadblock is its goaltending. The Flyers, still incomplete, aren't a serious playoff threat.

The Red Wings are a tough team to get a firm handle on. They rely on their top players way too much but look lethal when everything's clicking.

The Panthers, who are slowly getting healthy and fully settled into life without Aleksander Barkov, are another team to monitor. MoneyPuck.com has the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions' playoff odds listed at 64.7% - the second-highest in the Atlantic and fifth-highest in the East.

Western Conference

Just below cutline: Chicago, San Jose, Edmonton, Winnipeg

Who's for real?

With one regulation loss and a plus-44 goal differential in 23 games, Colorado is nothing short of a juggernaut. Name a meaningful statistical category, and there's a good chance the Avalanche rank first. The pleasant surprise amid all the positivity: Scott Wedgewood (17 starts), Mackenzie Blackwood (five), and Trent Miner (one) have combined for a league-best .920 save percentage.

Dallas and Vegas are titans in their own right, even if there are questions about killing penalties (Stars) and making saves at a high rate (Golden Knights). Anaheim's breakout, from 80 points last season to a projected 103 points, seems to be mostly legitimate. The impact of Joel Quenneville's coaching is unmistakable. Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier are making real developmental strides, while Lukas Dostal's an elite goalie. And, according to Tankathon, the Ducks own the second-weakest remaining schedule.

Utah and Minnesota comprise the West's third tier. Both boast playoff-worthy lineups and have enjoyed a lengthy, confidence-building winning streak. Both have also endured two humbling losing skids of three games or longer.

Who's overachieving?

Seattle is primed to take a step back. No team's worse at generating quality scoring chances than the Kraken, who sit 29th in goals per game. This isn't a puck-luck issue that'll balance out over the course of a season. Instead, it's a personnel and tactics problem - not nearly enough firepower or creativity.

Los Angeles profiles similarly to Seattle, though its stout defense lowers its chances of turning into a pumpkin. That being said, the Kings fall more on the overachieving side of the real-to-overachieving spectrum, which means a fifth straight trip to the playoffs is far from guaranteed.

San Jose and Chicago have captured the hockey world's imagination. Watching the meteoric rises of Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard has been thrilling, while franchise goalies Yaroslav Askarov and Spencer Knight have authored very good first quarters. However, for all the progress, 2025-26 is merely a stepping stone - neither franchise is ready for prime time.

Who might move up?

The Sharks and Blackhawks are the future of the West. For this season, a pair of battle-tested Canadian teams could be the ones climbing the standings.

Edmonton may be a mess - most nights, it's the definition of a studs-and-duds team - but the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl duo is a trump card. Nos. 97 and 29 have shown they can go on half-season heaters, so the Oilers shouldn't be counted out of the playoff hunt until mathematically eliminated. Especially since the third seed in the Pacific Division is up for grabs and the Oilers' front office is determined to finally upgrade at goalie.

It's been a strange season for NHL injuries, with so many impactful players sidelined for weeks at a time. Winnipeg is one of a handful of teams haunted by the trend. Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry, and Dylan Samberg all missed the first month-plus of the season. Shortly after the last of those key cogs returned, Connor Hellebuyck and Neal Pionk landed on the shelf. Luckily for the Jets, none of those five injuries were season-ending. This is a well-balanced, hungry club that will rebound soon and grab a postseason spot.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).