A disastrous season for the Toronto Maple Leafs ended with at least one silver lining.
The Maple Leafs lost their season finale 3-1 to the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday, guaranteeing a 28th-place finish in the NHL standings and increasing their chances of securing the 2026 first-round pick they previously traded to the Boston Bruins.
However, it's far from assured that Toronto will regain the top-five-protected pick. If a team outside the top five of the projected draft order wins one of the two lotteries, the Maple Leafs' pick would drop to six (or seventh if two teams outside the top five win the lotteries). In that case, Boston would keep the selection.
The Maple Leafs have a 41.9% of picking in the top five: 8.5% for first overall, 8.6% for second overall, 0.3% for third overall, and 24.5% for fifth overall, per Tankathon. That means there's a 58.1% chance that Toronto gets leapfrogged in the lottery and loses the selection.
The outcome could've been much worse for the Maple Leafs, though. If they won Wednesday and the Seattle Kraken lost their last two games in regulation, Toronto would've finished 27th and only had a 15.4% chance of picking in the top five.
The Maple Leafs traded their 2026 first-round pick, a 2025 fourth-round pick, and forward Fraser Minten to the Bruins at the 2025 trade deadline for defenseman Brandon Carlo. In March, Toronto fired Brad Treliving, its former general manager who swung the deal.
If the Maple Leafs keep their 2026 first-rounder, Boston will receive Toronto's first-round pick in either 2027 or 2028. Toronto also traded its 2027 first-round pick (top-10 protected) to the Philadelphia Flyers in a 2025 deadline deal for forward Scott Laughton.
The NHL draft lottery is scheduled for May 5.
