Our baseball writers share their observations and insights throughout this week's AL and NL wild-card rounds. Tap here to see the full playoff bracket and every team's path to the World Series.
Riley shows playoffs are clean slate
Austin Riley had the worst year of his career in 2026. The Braves third baseman posted a .654 OPS across 159 games during the regular season, and entered Game 1 in a 8-for-46 (.174) rut with just four RBIs over his previous 13 games.
But the beauty of the postseason is it provides anyone with the chance to be a hero, and Riley took advantage of his opportunity. With one swing, he changed the entire narrative surrounding his 2026 season - and he did that, smoking the game-winning homer of Jhoan Duran to send Truist Park into a frenzy.
AUSTIN RILEY
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2026
GO-AHEAD THREE-RUN HOMER
ATLANTA IS GOING WILD 🤯 pic.twitter.com/XrPQnazvVO
Riley's stunning homer helped the Braves avoid spoiling the best playoff start of Chris Sale's decorated career, a result that would have been disastrous for the home side. Teams that win Game 1 of the best-of-three wild-card series under the current best-of-three format have advanced 88% of the time. Given Atlanta's lack of rotational depth behind Sale, Riley's swing couldn't have been any bigger. - Brandon Wile
Mattingly's aggressive decision was right call, even if it didn't work
The Phillies entered the wild-card series with some serious question marks surrounding their rotation. Jesús Luzardo only threw four pitches over the final three weeks of the season, and Zack Wheeler was forced to start Sunday just to get Philadelphia into the playoffs. Despite this, Luzardo was brilliant in Game 1, unexpectedly throwing five solid innings before departing a tie game.
Even though Luzardo did far more than interim manager Don Mattingly could have possibly imagined, bridging the innings between the lefty and star closer Jhoan Duran was never going to be easy. Rookie Alex McFarlane gave up the go-ahead run in the sixth, but the Phillies battled back, and after taking a 3-2 lead in the top of the seventh, Mattingly asked star closer Duran to try and get nine outs.
With the top of the Braves order coming up in the seventh, going to Duran that early was the correct decision. Even if Duran could only give the Phillies two innings, you want him pitching in the most high-leverage situation. Duran looked to be cruising too, securing five outs on 15 pitches before an infield single and hit-by-pitch in the eighth set the stage for Riley's game-winning home run.
Duran surrendered just two homers in 59 1/3 innings all season, and only one to a right-handed hitter. Knowing how important Game 1 is in a short series, and having the opportunity to steal a game in which Sale started, it makes sense why Mattingly was so eager to go to Duran early. Sometimes, the best move doesn't always work, but most managers would rather lose with their best on the mound. - Brandon Wile
Judge out, Crochet and Stanton in for wild-card series
The Yankees and Red Sox haven't even taken the field yet, and there's already plenty of drama surrounding this series.
New York didn't include Aaron Judge on the roster as he continues to rehab from a calf injury. As difficult a decision as it probably was for Aaron Boone, it was likely too risky if the three-time MVP couldn't run. If Judge played and then had to be removed from the roster due to injury, the Yankees would've lost him for a potential ALDS matchup as well. New York played well for most of the regular season without Judge, and it'll hope to extend its campaign long enough to get him back.
However, adding Giancarlo Stanton to the roster makes Judge's absence a little easier to swallow. The 36-year-old hasn't played since late April because of a calf injury, but he recently took live at-bats and was cleared to play. Stanton's inclusion is a massive boost for a Yankees team that lacks right-handed power. He's also been an elite postseason performer throughout his career - hitting 18 home runs with a .926 OPS in 48 games - and has historically crushed the Red Sox. Boone couldn't have both Judge and Stanton limited to pinch-hitting duties, so it made the most sense to pick the healthier option.
The Red Sox made their own shocking roster addition by including Garrett Crochet, who's also been sidelined since late April. The left-hander will serve in a relief role since he hasn't been stretched out. While it's hard to predict Crochet's effectiveness, he has the potential to be an elite bullpen weapon and could combat New York's left-handed sluggers Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Part of Boston's decision to include Crochet likely comes from his experience pitching in relief, as he spent his first three MLB seasons as a reliever before converting to a starter. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox throw Crochet in a massive spot in this series. - Brandon Wile
The wild-card round should be excellent
MLB's playoff format could use a revamp - especially the seeding - but regardless of that, we should be treated to four very entertaining series.
Despite stumbling into the postseason, the Phillies have enough firepower to give the Braves a fight, and it won't be a shock if that series between division rivals gets a bit heated. Both teams know their championship windows are growing smaller. While the White Sox-Astros series features the two worst records among the playoff teams and will be started by openers, it also features Munetaka Murakami and Yordan Alvarez. This series really doesn't have a favorite. We're getting a glimpse of the twilight of Houston's AL dynasty, while the young team from Chicago hopes to take its first steps toward its own sustained run of success.
Yankees-Red Sox has grown a bit tame in recent years, but at its core it remains one of the best rivalries in sports. Meeting in the wild-card round for a second time in as many years should add some juice, as should the Game 1 pitching matchup. Cam Schlittler and Payton Tolle are both oozing confidence and personality and should immediately inject some life into the series. New York went 7-6 against Boston during the regular season, and it'll be great to see how the contrasting styles go head-to-head. In a rematch of last year's wild-card series, the Cubs and Padres will play once again in what could be the best matchup of the four. The two clubs finished first and second in runs scored after the All-Star break, and who doesn't want to see Fernando Tatis Jr. go toe-to-toe with Pete Crow-Armstrong? It's a shame this series is only a best-of-three. - Brandon Wile
Looking at odds ahead of the postseason
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | +225 |
| Brewers | +500 |
| Yankees | +750 |
| Rays | +750 |
| Guardians | +1000 |
| Red Sox | +1200 |
| Braves | +1400 |
| Cubs | +1600 |
| Phillies | +1600 |
| Padres | +1800 |
| Astros | +2000 |
| White Sox | +3500 |
Surprise, surprise - the Dodgers are favored to win a third straight World Series with +225 odds (30.8% implied probability). Shohei Ohtani and Co. will wait for the winner of the Braves-Phillies series, while the Brewers, the second favorite to win it all, will face either the Padres or Cubs. A National League team winning the World Series is -180 (64.3%), thanks not only to the Dodgers' win probability but also because all six teams have a legitimate shot at becoming champs.
The Yankees and Rays are the top two options in the American League, but New York must beat the Red Sox in the wild-card round first before facing Tampa Bay in the divisional series. You could argue the 93-win Yankees have the toughest path to a World Series among the favorites, which is why their championship odds are longer than the Brewers'.
The Guardians may be the best value on the board at +1000. They'll face either the Astros or White Sox in the divisional series and have the easiest path among all playoff teams to a championship series berth. - Eric Patterson
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