What to expect in Embiid's season debut against the Knicks

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Spike Lee couldn't script a more disastrous start to the Sixers' season if he tried. The Sixers, who had a monumental offseason and entered the campaign with the third-best odds to win the East, are 2-7 and tied for the NBA's third-worst record.

First, peculiar messaging surrounding Joel Embiid's playing status while he sat out the first few games of the season led to an NBA investigation and a subsequent fine after the league determined Sixers officials made inconsistent public statements about Embiid's injury status. Embiid's surgically repaired knee, which forced him to sit out 43 games last season and restricted him throughout the postseason, is reportedly still an issue.

The uncertainty and mystery surrounding the former MVP led to criticism from a local newspaper columnist. Embiid took issue with a reporter invoking his family when questioning his availability and then shoved the reporter in the locker room. Philadelphia's franchise cornerstone was suspended three games for the incident.

Meanwhile, offseason free-agent pickup Paul George injured his knee in the preseason and missed the first five games. Tyrese Maxey carried an enormous usage rate and led the league in scoring and minutes despite failing to produce wins as he tried to weather the storm without his two co-stars. Maxey then injured his hamstring, and he's out for at least another week.

Embiid's return from injury and suspension is set for Tuesday's NBA Cup opener against the Knicks. However, the Big Three's debut showcase is delayed again without Maxey.

It's always sunny in Philadelphia, isn't it?

The rest of the East got a head start as the Sixers' shenanigans hurt them in the standings, but conference rivals didn't take advantage. Only two Eastern Conference teams are above .500 - the Celtics and Cavs. Potential contenders such as the Bucks, Knicks, and Magic have struggled for various reasons. The Sixers have the fourth-best odds (+900) to win the East behind the Celtics, Knicks, and Cavs and have a 90% implied probability of making the playoffs.

Philadelphia's first opportunity to make up some ground with Embiid in the fold comes against the Knicks. New York eliminated the Sixers in the first round last season while successfully limiting a hobbled Embiid during crucial stretches, but this is a different squad. How much should fans expect from Embiid in his season debut?

Embiid is presumably healthy and well-conditioned enough to play. However, the Sixers have made it abundantly clear they will be extra cautious with their 7-footer in hopes of dragging him into the postseason healthy.

He's never played more than 35 minutes per game in a season. It's fair to assume he'll be on a minutes restriction against New York that won't exceed 30. George is on a minutes restriction as well.

All the off-court drama surrounding Embiid makes it easy to forget he's one of the best per-minute scorers in NBA history. He's averaged at least 33 points and 10 boards each of the past two seasons. Embiid's transition to a larger playmaking role led to higher assist totals. His assists should climb even higher this season while he operates as a hub alongside George and Maxey.

Embiid won't face Mitchell Robinson or Isaiah Hartenstein, two centers who troubled him in the playoffs. Robinson is injured and Hartenstein left New York for Oklahoma City. Their absences created a hole in the Knicks' frontcourt that new addition Karl-Anthony Towns can't fill. Towns is a huge offensive upgrade, but he isn't a natural center, and his lack of rim protection has hurt the Knicks' defense. New York's starting unit has the worst defensive rating and second-best offensive rating among lineups that have played at least 100 minutes together. The former Minnesota big allows opponents to shoot 91% in the restricted area, per ESPN Stats and Info.

Simply put, Towns can't properly protect the rim as a center. As I wrote when the trade went down, there's a reason the Timberwolves brought in Rudy Gobert and moved Towns to power forward years ago.

That bodes well for Embiid to feast inside. His points prop is set for 25.5, his rebounds prop is 9.5, and his assists prop is 4.5. His combined points, rebounds, and assists total is 38.5, and he's +2200 to record a triple-double. He scored at least 26 points in 36 of his 39 games last season, and he can easily exceed that Tuesday while shaking off some rust and playing fewer minutes.

Aside from the defensive concerns, the Knicks have no reliable bench pieces besides Miles McBride. They rank last in bench points and minutes. As a result, New York's starters become fatigued from huge workloads. The Knicks have been outscored by 13.7 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter, the NBA's second-worst mark. They have the worst clutch net rating in the NBA.

Yet, with all the uncertainty surrounding the Sixers and Maxey's absence, the Knicks are 2.5-point road favorites. It's a few weeks late, but the Sixers' season officially begins Tuesday.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.