Western Conference 2nd-round betting preview
With two series extending to seven games, the Western Conference opening round concluded over the weekend. We already previewed the Eastern Conference second-round matchups, one of which began Sunday. Now, let's get to our West preview and picks.
No. 1 Thunder (-900) vs. No. 4 Nuggets (+500)
The Denver Nuggets closed out the Los Angeles Clippers in seven games to advance to the second round. Denver's reward? One day of rest before beginning its series against the NBA's best team. The Oklahoma City Thunder are a massive favorite in the series and a 9.5-point home favorite for Monday night's series opener.
While Denver must play on little rest, the Thunder haven't played a game in eight days. Before believing rust could be a factor, consider this stat from ESPN: Teams with eight or more days of rest are 6-0 with a 20.3 margin of victory in the playoffs against teams with one rest day. Any playoff series is mentally and physically demanding. It's even more difficult without sufficient recovery time.
Besides the rest factor, the Thunder have the talent edge in this series. Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are MVP candidates, but the latter has significantly more help. Jokic's supporting cast did enough to escape the Clippers. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. had some brilliant performances, but they also had some duds. Denver can't get away with that inconsistency against a team as deep and ripe with talent as the Thunder. The Nuggets struggle without Jokic on the floor. They have a plus-10.5 net rating when he's on the court and a minus-9.3 net rating when he's out. The Thunder have the depth to survive when Gilgeous-Alexander sits.
Oklahoma City finished the regular season with the second-best net rating in NBA history behind the 1995-96 Bulls. It has the NBA's best defense and third-best offense. The Thunder dominate the possession battle by rarely turning the ball over (No. 1 turnover rate) and constantly forcing turnovers (No. 1 opponent turnover rate).
The Thunder have virtually no weaknesses. Their only potential vulnerability is they have relatively little playoff experience. This will be the core's fourth playoff series together. Jalen Williams floundered in the second round last year. Even if he struggles against the Nuggets, the Thunder have many replaceable two-way wings to pick up the load and help Gilgeous-Alexander as the Nuggets send doubles at the Thunder's star.
Luckily for Oklahoma City, the Nuggets' defense finished in the bottom third of the league and doesn't have enough capable perimeter defenders to slow down the Thunder's attack.
Pick: Thunder 4-1 (+200); Thunder 4-2 (+450)
No. 6 Timberwolves (-175) vs. No. 7 Warriors (+150)
A spinoff featuring a WWE brawl between Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green would be as enthralling as the basketball in the upcoming Minnesota Timberwolves-Golden State Warriors series. Gobert's become the NBA's punching bag with Green leading the charge against the French center.
However, Gobert silenced the critics when he scored 27 points and grabbed 24 rebounds in the Wolves' closeout Game 5 against the Los Angeles Lakers. Minnesota's strength is its size and physicality, which it leveraged against the Lakers, who played small without a reliable center on their roster.
The T-Wolves have a similar advantage over the Warriors, who also play small with Green at the five. The difference between the Warriors' and Lakers' small-ball lineups is that Green is a much better defensive center than Rui Hachimura or LeBron James. Green can guard all positions, protect the rim, and rebound effectively. He has experience playing center and has been in plenty of battles against Gobert.
The Warriors also have the luxury of playing Kevon Looney sporadic minutes, which they'll utilize if necessary. While the Timberwolves have the size advantage, it's not as big of an edge against the Warriors as it was against the Lakers.
Minnesota can also counter with small lineups when Naz Reid plays center. Those lineups feature five shooters, making them difficult to guard.
The Warriors' core of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Green are playoff veterans, but they're also aging stars coming off a seven-game series. Minnesota relies on its youthful exuberance, and it's entering the second round with more rest than Golden State.
Anthony Edwards took another jump this season, but this one came as a playmaker. He's masterfully navigated double teams and consistently sets his teammates up in the right spots. Edwards' supporting cast was a question mark heading into the playoffs, mostly because of Julius Randle's suspect playoff history. But Randle stepped up in the opening round, averaging 22 points on nearly 40% shooting from three.
Curry should be excellent, especially because the T-Wolves can't match the Houston Rockets' defensive physicality that bothered Curry in Round 1. But this series will ultimately come down to each team's secondary players.
Golden State surrounds Curry and Butler with a shaky offensive support system, while Minnesota has the right pieces around Edwards.
Few teams are playing as well as the T-Wolves, who have won 20 of their past 25 games. Expect a competitive series featuring many tactical adjustments and rotation modifications. I'd bet on it going seven games with the Timberwolves squeaking by.
Pick: T-Wolves to win series (-175); Series to go seven games (+195)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.