NBA Finals Bet or Bail: Players who will swing the championship

The Thunder's and Pacers' remarkable depth led them to NBA Finals berths. However, the stars will ultimately decide who lifts the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Let's determine whether to bet or bail on one player from each team and dive into some head-to-head player specials exclusively on theScore Bet and ESPN Bet.

A player to bail on

Tyrese Haliburton

The Thunder's historically dominant defense carried them to the championship. It focuses on aggressive ball pressure, shutting off dribble-drive penetration, and forcing turnovers. That should keep Tyrese Haliburton awake at night.

While Haliburton's playoff run has catapulted him into a star, he struggled in his two regular-season matchups against OKC. He recorded 11 points and 5.5 assists versus the Thunder, whose physical and athletic point-of-attack defenders shut down his drives. Haliburton averaged over 15 drives per game against all opponents but drove the ball less than nine times per contest versus the Thunder.

When Haliburton stumbles, the entire Pacers' offense does, too. Indiana's offense is predicated on drive-and-kick and moving the ball as a unit, but that only happens if Haliburton and other Pacers guards find a way into the lane.

Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Jalen Williams will take turns disrupting Haliburton's rhythm. His series average points prop is 17.5. He's only averaged more than 18 in two of his six career playoff series, and both were against the Knicks. His assist prop is 9.5. Again, he won't accumulate assists without collapsing the defense, which rarely happens against the Thunder.

A player to bet on

Chet Holmgren

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who's -600 to win Finals MVP, and Jalen Williams are the obvious choices to perform well against an improved but still suspect Indiana defense. The Thunder's third-leading scorer is also primed for a monstrous series.

Chet Holmgren has averaged at least 18 points per game in two of OKC's three playoff series. While his series-long points prop isn't listed, his Game 1 prop is 17.5 points. His series-long rebounding prop is 8.5 boards per game. The Pacers are a below-average rebounding group. While Holmgren's rebounding numbers were down against the Timberwolves' frontcourt, he averaged nearly 11 boards against the Nuggets in the second round.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams will attract double teams and extra help from Indiana's defense. That could create an opportunity for OKC's others to score, including Holmgren. He'll have advantageous matchups against Pascal Siakam, who doesn't have the height to guard him, and Myles Turner, who lacks the lateral quickness to stop his drives.

Head-to-head specials

Who will score more points?

Bennedict Mathurin has scored 15 more points than Alex Caruso this postseason, but that will change this series. While Mathurin has had his playoff moments, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle has opted to lessen his load during certain games.

Caruso is a staple off the Thunder's bench. He's played 120 more playoff minutes than Mathurin. Caruso is guaranteed minutes; Mathurin isn't. A larger workload means more opportunities to score. Caruso attempted more shots per game than Mathurin in the last series and played eight more minutes per contest. He'll win this scoring clash.

While Haliburton will struggle to glide to the rim against the Thunder, his co-star, Siakam, will still have avenues to score. Siakam was a slow, half-court-oriented player before he arrived in Indiana, but he's adopted his point guard's style and thrived in a fast-paced system.

Williams has silenced the playoff skepticism surrounding him, but he still scores less than Siakam, who averaged 24.8 points on 17.5 shots per game against the Knicks. Williams averaged 22.2 points last series, the most he's ever averaged in a playoff matchup. Yet it still fell short of Siakam's average, who also averaged more than Williams in their respective second-round series.

The Pacers will run additional actions through Siakam as Haliburton flounders. Bet on him to score more in the Finals than Williams, even if it's in a losing effort.

Who will make more threes?

Aaron Nesmith has drilled five more threes than Haliburton this postseason. Nesmith has made the same amount or more threes than Haliburton in every series this postseason.

Haliburton attempts significantly more threes than Nesmith and has the ball more, but he's shooting 33% from three compared to Nesmith's 50%. Nesmith is a spot-up player. Guards like Haliburton usually create looks for shooters like Nesmith. Still, Nesmith's a marksman and Haliburton's an inconsistent shooter, so this pricing is bizarre.

The Pacers may attempt to play Haliburton off the ball to combat the Thunder's ball pressure, but he isn't exactly a guy to run pindowns for. At this lopsided price, target Nesmith to win the 3-point shootout over his teammate.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.