Why Trae Young's trade market will be almost nonexistent

Trae Young has already spent years on the theoretical trade market, but this time it really feels like his Hawks tenure is nearing its end.

Young's representatives are reportedly working with the Hawks to find a deal, which signals to me that Atlanta has accepted it'll have to sell low on the four-time All-Star rather than lose him for nothing in free agency.

The Hawks have seemingly determined that there's no longer room for Young in their long-term plans, and they're self-aware enough to realize there won't be a bidding war for the mercurial guard's services.

That may sound inconceivable given Young is a 27-year-old All-Star and the NBA's reigning assists champion, but it's actually quite sensible. There's more to the story than Young's gaudy numbers, with too many complicating factors working against him.

First and foremost, Young has consistently been one of the league's worst defensive players since being drafted fifth overall in 2018. While his small (6-foot-2, 164-pound) frame is limiting enough, Young also lacks the strength, athleticism, and lateral quickness needed to mitigate those size concerns. And his effort on the defensive end has been inconsistent, at best.

Opponents can construct entire game plans around targeting Young, which torpedoes the Hawks' team defense and significantly shrinks Atlanta's margin for error. That helps explain why the Hawks are 2-8 with Young in the lineup but 15-13 when he sits - something he's done quite often this season due to knee and quad injuries. Young also hasn't made an All-NBA team since 2022, and for as gifted an offensive player as he is, his shooting efficiency is below average for a second straight year.

Those numbers aren't entirely fair to a hobbled Young, who can still collapse and carve up opposing defenses. At his best, he's elevated the Hawks to improbable heights, most memorably leading Atlanta to the 2021 Eastern Conference finals in just his third season as a pro. However, the Hawks have averaged 40 wins in the four seasons since then despite repeated efforts to shore up the defensive infrastructure around Young.

The star guard has averaged roughly 26 points and 11 assists during that time. The result: Atlanta has four straight play-in appearances and zero playoff series wins to show for it, with the team winning Young's minutes by 0.5 points per 100 possessions. Mediocrity has defined the partnership.

In the meantime, the Hawks have assembled a young core featuring Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, rookie Asa Newell, and embattled 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher. There's also an incoming first-round draft pick via New Orleans or Milwaukee that could see Atlanta land a top pick in a star-studded 2026 class.

You can understand why the Hawks weren't in a rush to extend Young last summer, and why rival teams won't be lining up to overpay Young in free agency. The punitive luxury-tax aprons have changed the calculus for roster construction. It used to be that even flawed stars like Young were obvious candidates for max contracts and/or max extensions when eligible. Now, teams are showing more restraint, knowing full well they can't afford to pay secondary or tertiary stars top-tier money.

Can you build a perennial contender in the age of aprons if Young is earning 30% of the annual cap? Never say never, but barring the emergence of another Victor Wembanyama-like defensive difference-maker somewhere to protect Young, the chances are slim. That's why I thought San Antonio was Young's best chance to both win and get paid until the Spurs traded for and extended De'Aaron Fox instead.

Young's future - and his appeal on the trade market - is also clouded by his murky contract status. If he wants to test the market as soon as this summer, prospective trade partners could find themselves bidding for a flawed star who might only be a three-month rental. Young could also pick up his roughly $49-million player option for next season, delaying free agency until 2027.

Even at a reduced price, Young doesn't make sense as an in-season trade target for contenders. He could fit Milwaukee's desperate plan to appease Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Hawks likely want at least one first-rounder in any deal. Unless Antetokounmpo signals that a trade for Young would keep him around, the Bucks shouldn't rush to move their 2031 pick with so many questions still lingering about their own future.

Where he likely fits is in a less glamorous market that doesn't usually factor into free-agent sweepstakes, is desperate for relevance, and could use a jolt to energize its fan base. Young still has the natural talent, name recognition, and marketability to sell tickets while winning some games.

That's why Washington's reported interest makes so much sense. Laugh at Atlanta's Young-led mediocrity all you want, but the division-rival Wizards haven't reached 40 wins in a season in eight years, haven't won a playoff series in nine years, and haven't advanced to the conference finals since 1979.

The 10-25 Wizards would still be bad enough with Young in the lineup to compete for a top pick in the aforementioned 2026 draft, though it's worth noting that Washington only keeps its 2026 pick if it lands in the top eight. The Wizards also boast an exciting young defensive prospect in sophomore big man Alex Sarr. If they can turn salary filler and a pick into taking a flier on Young when his value is at its lowest, they should act swiftly.

It may not be the riveting scenario fans hope for when an All-Star hits the trade market, but it's the reality for Young. Good on Atlanta for realizing that.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.