How does Tatum's return fit into Celtics' storybook season?

Pundits and outsiders spouted words like "gap year" and "rebuild" to make sense of a puzzling Celtics roster that had lost three-fifths of its starting lineup. But those words never penetrated the walls of Boston's Auerbach Center.

Despite losing Jayson Tatum to a torn Achilles, watching Al Horford and Luke Kornet leave in free agency, and trading Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics have defied expectations. Having missed the playoffs only once in the last 18 years, Boston currently holds the East's No. 2 seed, owns the NBA's fourth-best record, and is on pace to win more than 50 games for the fifth consecutive season.

Now, Tatum is reportedly expected to make his season debut Friday, 10 months after he ruptured his Achilles tendon in the second round of last season's playoffs. While All-NBA-level players have previously returned from major injuries quicker than expected, none have rejoined a title-aspiring team in quite this manner. Tatum will reunite with a squad that's prospered without him but needs his presence to shift from feel-good story into true title threat.

👉 Check out the Celtics' odds to win the NBA championship on theScore Bet here

Though they lost 63% of their scoring production from last year, the Celtics have improved their offensive rating this season. They rank second in the league in offensive rating, yet are 21st in points per game. No team since 2000 has finished with a top-three offensive rating while sitting in the league's bottom half in points per game over a full season. How is Boston so efficient without a high-scoring output? The answer lies in its possessions.

The Celtics play at the league's slowest pace, valuing each possession by avoiding turnovers (second-best turnover rate) and crashing the offensive glass (fifth-best offensive rebounding rate). Even last year, when Boston had a more robust frontcourt, it placed in the bottom half in offensive rebounding. The personnel matter less than the philosophy.

By securing more offensive rebounds and limiting turnovers, the Celtics consistently generate additional shot opportunities. The efficient approach is why they rate third in field-goal attempts despite tallying the league's second-fewest total possessions.

But Boston's biggest transformation is where they're shooting from and how they're generating shots.

The Celtics rank second in three-point attempts despite taking six fewer threes per game than they did last campaign and the fewest since Joe Mazzulla became head coach in 2022. This season, 46% of their shots are coming from beyond the arc, down from 54% last season.

Jaylen Brown's mastery of the mid-range has fueled that approach. Serving as the Celtics' offensive catalyst and catapulting into MVP contention, Brown is posting a career-best 28.9 points per game (tied for fourth in the NBA) and a 35.6% usage rate, the league's second-highest.

Brown took 228 total pull-up 2-pointers last season, accounting for 17% of his field-goal attempts. However, he's already attempted 344 in 2025-26 - 28% of his total shots - while connecting on a career-best 43.1% on all dribble jumpers.

"I think we've changed our approach significantly," Brown recently said. "I was discouraged a lot of times to take mid-range shots. At different points in my career, they literally told me not to. Now it's like, Jaylen, you can take whatever shot you want."

Previously, the Celtics' offense featured Tatum relentlessly hunting mismatches and attacking switches in isolation to create an advantage. But Boston's isolation frequency has declined while its pick-and-roll rate has increased. Boston currently sits third in pick-and-roll frequency after placing 18th last season.

Brown's pick-and-roll possessions per contest are up from 3.9 to 6.5. Meanwhile, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, and Brown all rank in the top 40 in points per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler after none placed in the top 60 last season.

The Celtics once relied heavily on post touches to create high-quality shots, but that has disappeared. With Porzingis - among the most efficient post-up players - and Tatum - whose patented mid-post touches are borderline unguardable - out of the lineup, post-ups have vanished from the offense. Last season, the Celtics placed third in post-up possessions at 6.5 per game. This campaign, they run the league's third-fewest at 2.1 per game.

As Boston has abandoned post touches and reduced its isolation plays, it has placed a heavier emphasis on ball screens and capitalizing on offensive rebounds. It ranks fourth in second-chance points.

As fans wonder how a perennial All-NBA first-team player will fit into the equation, Tatum's asking the same question.

"There is a thought in my head, like, how does that work? Or how does that look with me integrating myself off an injury and 50, 60 games into a season?" Tatum said on the Pivot Podcast in February.

Tatum likely won't step right back into the role of a 26-point-per-game, high-usage player who overtakes Brown as the primary creator. While Brown has rightfully become the top option, Tatum's scoring and playmaking will be crucial to unlocking Boston's offense against heightened defensive coverages in the playoffs.

Tatum finished fourth in the league last season in isolation scoring, using his shot creation to generate looks for himself and others. He also averaged 7.4 pick-and-roll ball-handling possessions per game. With Tatum likely returning on a minutes restriction, that workload will subside.

However, the five-time All-NBAer should play more off the ball in a spot-up role. He thrived in those situations last season, scoring an impressive 1.121 points per spot-up possession, according to Synergy. Boston can design plays to scheme Tatum open without him dominating the ball. For example, consider this Spain pick-and-roll (ball screen into a back screen), but imagine Tatum playing Sam Hauser's spot as the back screener:

Now picture Tatum playing Hauser's part in this action (horns set into a ghost screen and a flare screen):

Mazzulla's innovative playbook will create shots for Tatum, who's drilled at least 38% of his catch-and-shoot threes over the last four seasons. As the playoffs approach, Boston should steadily increase his isolation and ball-screen reps while reintroducing post-up opportunities for the 6-foot-8 forward.

The Celtics, favored to win the East, have leaned on an ultra-efficient offense without enough reliable scoring options for a deep playoff run. Though Brown has said this is his favorite season, he needs his co-star back for this team to turn a surprising regular season into another Finals trip.

A gap year? Yeah, right. Not with Mazzulla's maniacal approach. Questions will persist regarding Tatum's role, but his return signals Boston's plan to reclaim the Eastern Conference crown.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.