March Madness Elite Eight picks: Will favorites keep advancing?
The field that began at 68 is down to eight.
Eight of KenPom's top nine teams in the country are represented in the Elite Eight, composed of four 1-seeds, three 2-seeds, and one 3-seed. It's hard to find a chalkier tournament than this one. That's a great development because this weekend's Elite Eight matchups should be some of the season's most thrilling college basketball games with a trip to San Antonio on the line.
Saturday's games
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Florida (-6.5, O/U 156.5)
Florida coach Todd Golden hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game entering this season. However, that inexperience hasn't been an issue. The Gators were tested against UConn and Maryland but advanced to the Elite Eight with one of the most balanced rosters in the country.
The Gators' strength is creating second-chance opportunities by crashing the offensive glass. They have the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the country. That could present an issue for Texas Tech, which is outside the top 120 in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.
Texas Tech pulled off a magical comeback against Arkansas. However, it took overtime, which could lead to tired legs against Florida with only one day of rest. The Red Raiders desperately need Chance McMillian to return - he's questionable after missing the past three games with an upper-body injury. Even without Alex Condon for most of the game, Florida survived Maryland with frontcourt depth and prolific scoring guards. Texas Tech doesn't have the talent to keep up with Florida, which will advance to its first Final Four since 2014.
Pick: Florida -6.5
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 Duke (-6.5, O/U 174.5)
This could be the game of the tournament between high-powered offenses with NBA talent littered all over the floor. Alabama is the more experienced group, having made the Final Four last season. While Duke relies primarily on freshmen, its first-year stars' on-court maturity resembles veterans.
The Blue Devils have the most talent in the country. They've won 30 of their past 31 games and scored 100 points in the Sweet 16 against Arizona. However, they also allowed 93 points. Duke might struggle against Alabama's fast-paced offense that chucks threes at a historic rate.
Alabama broke the tournament record for threes made when it drilled 25 3-pointers on 49% shooting from downtown in a Sweet 16 rout over BYU. Alabama typically shoots 35% from deep. It'll walk to the national championship if it continues to shoot that well from three. Duke is usually solid at defending the three, but it's susceptible to defensive lapses. If Alabama stays hot, it'll advance to its second consecutive Final Four.
Plus, the Crimson Tide have improved defensively throughout the season. Over the past two months, they've had a top-30 defense in the country. Don't expect them to shut down Duke in a likely high-scoring affair, as indicated by the over-under total, but they'll keep it close with timely stops.
Pick: Alabama +6.5
Sunday's games
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Houston (-3.5, O/U 124.5)
This is a remarkably low total, which tells this game's story. Houston has the nation's best defense while Tennessee has the third-best. Expect a physical, defensive battle between two coaches who construct creative defensive game plans to stymie opposing offenses.
Houston has won 29 of its past 30 games. It escaped Purdue in the Sweet 16 thanks to a brilliant baseline inbounds play in the final seconds. Houston struggled offensively, scoring only 62 points against a porous defense. The Cougars shot 36% from 2-point range. Their offense must be more efficient to survive Tennessee.
Tennessee shot 26% from three but controlled Kentucky from the tip until the final buzzer. The Vols' defense often leads to offense, and they move the ball well with various contributors. While Houston has been dominant, it hasn't played a team as good as Tennessee since it began Big 12 competition. This should be an incredible game between teams with similar strengths. I'd lean Houston to cover, but this is a complete toss-up.
Lean: Houston -3.5
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Auburn (-5.5, O/U 148.5)
Michigan State struggled for most of its Sweet 16 showdown against Ole Miss, but pulled away in the final minutes of a tightly contested game. The Spartans didn't play well, but they have many contributors who can fill the stat sheet. Jase Richardson scored 20 points, Coen Carr had 15, and Jaden Akins poured in 13.
The Spartans rebound effectively and have an assertive defense. Their strength is limiting threes, allowing opponents to shoot 27% from deep, the nation's best mark. The problem is Auburn doesn't rely on its 3-point shooting. The Tigers run their offense through forward Johni Broome and have various downhill driving guards who can create shots for themselves and their teammates.
While Michigan State's defense is exceptional, Auburn has matchup advantages all over the floor. This is another coin-flip game, which happens when all the best teams in the country advance to the Elite Eight. Auburn has the talent edge, but 5.5 is too many points with a trip to the Final Four on the line.
Lean: Michigan State +5.5
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.