How many SEC, Big Ten teams will make the College Football Playoff?
The College Football Playoff picture is taking shape with just two weeks left in the regular season. Other than the automatic conference champion qualifiers and Notre Dame's likely appearance as an independent school, most of the 12-team field will feature SEC and Big Ten teams. But how many?
Oddsmakers at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet assigned the over/under for SEC teams in the dance at 4.5 (+300 to the over and -500 to the under).
Here are the programs under consideration:
Team | Odds to make playoff | Remaining schedule |
---|---|---|
No. 3. Texas | -1400 | vs. Kentucky; @ Texas A&M |
No. 7 Alabama | -750 | @ Oklahoma; vs. Auburn |
No. 9 Ole Miss | -400 | @ Florida; vs. Mississippi State |
No. 10 Georgia | -3500 | vs. UMass; vs. Georgia Tech |
First team out: Tennessee | -135 | vs. UTEP; @ Vanderbilt |
Third team out: Texas A&M | +450 | @ Auburn; vs. Texas |
It's clear the CFP selection committee doesn't value strength of schedule as much as many believe it should. Texas is the highest-ranked SEC team despite all of its conference wins coming against five of the bottom seven teams in the standings. The Longhorns were dominated by Georgia in their only game against quality competition.
Texas can make a statement in its final regular-season game against No. 15 Texas A&M. A loss could see the Longhorns slip out of the playoff picture entirely, but a win would guarantee their spot and book them a trip to the SEC championship. Texas A&M, currently among the first four out, would force the committee to consider its entry with a win.
Georgia is undervalued. The Bulldogs have had the hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index, their only two losses have come to top-10 teams (Alabama and Ole Miss), and they have wins against three top-15 teams, including Texas and Tennessee.
Ole Miss and Alabama also have two losses but beat the Bulldogs earlier this season, so they're ahead of them in the ranking. But Georgia is seven slots below a Texas team it beat on the road. Make it make sense.
Tennessee is ranked 11th but is currently out of the picture because projected conference champions Boise State and BYU would earn automatic bids and leap the Volunteers.
There's also the possibility that a two-loss SEC team earns a trip to the SEC championship and suffers its third loss, which could hurt its ranking. It remains to be seen if the committee will penalize teams for being forced to play an extra game because it was atop the standings.
Regardless, the SEC will have a minimum of four teams. How the committee views fringe SEC teams against their Big Ten counterparts will determine if they earn a fifth squad. These are how the Big Ten contenders currently rank:
Team | Odds to make playoff | Remaining schedule |
---|---|---|
1. Oregon | N/A | vs. Washington |
2. Ohio State | -8000 | vs. Indiana; vs. Michigan |
4. Penn State | -900 | @ Minnesota; vs. Maryland |
5. Indiana | -350 | @ Ohio State; vs. Purdue |
Only four Big Ten teams are in consideration. Although they're all ranked in the top five, only the conference champ will earn a top-four seed and first-round bye.
Oddsmakers at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet assigned the over/under for Big Ten teams at 3.5 (-400 to the over and +250 to the under).
Indiana has shocked the nation with a 10-0 start in Curt Cignetti's first season. However, the Hoosiers have had the easiest schedule among all 34 SEC and Big Ten programs.
But does the committee care? Seemingly no. Indiana is ranked ahead of all but one SEC school. Even if (when) Indiana loses to Ohio State this weekend, it shouldn't impact the Hoosiers' standing. Granted, that could change if Indiana gets annihilated.
The final slot will presumably be between a one-loss Indiana squad and a two-loss SEC school like Tennessee. The Volunteers lost to Georgia and Arkansas but have a top-20 strength of schedule, and their best win was over a top-10 Alabama team. Indiana's best win was against a .500 Michigan group.
The Hoosiers' resume shouldn't meet the necessary qualifications, but the committee's arbitrary criteria will sneak it in, likely giving the SEC and Big Ten four teams each.
However, the games must be played, and chaos could ensue in the next three weeks before the official playoff bracket is revealed.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.