Penn State enters season with its shortest title odds this century

Equipped with a loaded roster, Penn State has its shortest national championship and Big Ten title odds this century, per Sportsoddshistory.com. It's +600 to win the national title, behind Texas and Ohio State at +550, and +225 to win the conference behind Ohio State at +200 on ESPN BET and theScore Bet.

The Nittany Lions' win total is 10.5, their highest mark in the last 20 years. They've only won the Big Ten title once in James Franklin's decade-plus tenure, having done so in 2016 when they were +6000 preseason longshots.

Big Ten title odds

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Bettors are buying into Penn State's talent despite its track record in big games. Nearly 14% of the money in the national championship market is on Penn State, the second most behind Texas. The Nittany Lions have also received the third-most title tickets.

Despite returning the program to national relevance, Franklin still faces criticisms. Penn State is 4-20 against top-10 opponents under Franklin and 1-15 against AP top-five teams. Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, and Kirby Smart - some of the sport's most legendary coaches over the last generation - all have winning records against AP top-five teams. Franklin, meanwhile, is 0-6 against teams ranked in the top five by the CFP selection committee.

What's more, Franklin had several opportunities last season to flip the narrative with one of the nation's best teams. Instead, he lost to Ohio State at home, lost a close contest to Oregon in the Big Ten championship, and blew a halftime lead to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Penn State benefited from an easy path to those semifinals, with clashes against Boise State and SMU. The Nittany Lions were favored by more than a touchdown in both of those contests. But when it came time to stare down an opponent of similar caliber, they fell apart.

Feasting on mediocre competition is Franklin's specialty. Winning the big contest - or the one he's not supposed to - is his kryptonite. He's even been facetiously dubbed "Big Game James," poking fun at his abysmal record in matchups with strong opponents.

Penn State should be in the College Football Playoff. Anything short of that would be a failure considering its easy schedule and its roster, which is one of the nation's best. It'll only be an underdog in a road matchup against Ohio State, and if that's its only loss, Penn State will likely appear in the Big Ten championship and as a top seed in the playoff.

Quarterback Drew Allar is one of the top signal-callers in the nation, but has crumbled in big moments, like when he threw two poorly-timed picks against Oregon in the Big Ten championship or only completed 52% of his passes against Notre Dame in the playoff.

Allar lost his top weapon when tight end Tyler Warren, one of Penn State's all-time best pass catchers, left for the NFL this past season. Because of Warren's presence and Allar's improvements, the Nittany Lions trusted their quarterback to push the ball down the field more last season - he increased his yards per attempt from 6.8 in 2023 to 8.4 in 2024. But they made up for Warren's loss through the transfer portal, adding Kyron Hudson from USC and Devonte Ross from Troy.

Penn State also has one of the nation's top offensive lines and most dynamic running back duos in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Singleton rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2022 and 2024 and has pass-catching abilities out of the backfield. Allen also rushed for 1,000 yards last season, leading the team in rushing yards. Few teams have the luxury of rostering a pair like them.

Franklin's squad, complete with its offensive optionality, could very well be one of the country's most explosive offenses.

Maybe this is the year Franklin laughs back at his critics. After all, he has the team to do it.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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