CFB Week 4 picks: Ranked SEC showdown highlights Saturday's slate

Week 3 wasn't our finest set of bets, but there's no better time to bounce back than an incredible Week 4 slate featuring competitive conference showdowns and an in-state rivalry that will almost certainly impact the College Football Playoff race in a few months. Let's get to the games.

🏈Check out all college football Week 4 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 12 p.m. ET

🏈 Pick: Utah -3.5

Texas Tech averages 58 points per game, the most in the country. But let's check in on the competition: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State, which have a combined two wins. Utah isn't too far off the Red Raiders' offensive production: The Utes are averaging 45 points per game, 14th in the nation.

The quarterbacks in this matchup will determine the result, and Utah's Devon Dampier deserves the edge. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton has the ninth-most passing yards in the country. His numbers are on par with the top signal-callers, but again, the competition has been poor. More importantly, Morton's production significantly drops on the road, where he's struggled throughout his career.

Dampier hasn't thrown an interception this season while completing 73% of his passes. He also leads Utah, which has covered all three of its games, in rushing yards. Texas Tech's defense will have a tough time slowing down Dampier and Utah's offense.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Auburn +6.5

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer became the Heisman favorite last week as everyone marveled at his arm talent and ability to extend plays. However, the early-season hype may not translate to continued production. While the win over Michigan was impressive, the Sooners haven't faced a defense like Auburn's.

The most obvious storyline here is Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold's return to his old school. The Tigers impressed in their season-opening win over Baylor and possess the talent to return to contention in the SEC. This is a toss-up game between ranked SEC opponents, so I'll take the underdog.

Game time: 7:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Miami -7.5

Miami has played like a hungry predator, putting up impressive wins over Notre Dame and South Florida with its talented roster. Florida is wounded prey as Gainesville residents count the seconds until Billy Napier is fired. It's impossible to bet on the Gators right now with a lame-duck coach.

After consecutive losses, Florida is more likely to implode than rebound, especially considering DJ Lagway just threw five interceptions in the worst showing of the quarterback's career. Even beyond the drama surrounding Florida, Miami is the significantly better team, and its defense should bend Lagway into a pretzel again.

Game time: 7:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Illinois +5.5

This is not the same Indiana team that qualified for the College Football Playoff. Fernando Mendoza replaced Kurtis Rourke at quarterback, and many key personnel departed. Indiana is 3-0, but only because it schedules awful nonconference opponents. This team isn't a contender in the Big Ten this season. Illinois, however, can embark on a 2024 Hoosiers-type run.

Illinois is 3-0 straight up and against the spread, including a dominant win over Duke. Luke Altmyer's consistency at quarterback is the special ingredient in Illinois' playoff recipe. He's thrown for eight touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing nearly 72% of his passes. He won't fold in a hostile road atmosphere. Look out for Illinois to win Saturday's matchup outright.

🏈Check out all college football Week 4 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 12 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Maryland +9.5

Maryland hasn't played any noteworthy competition en route to its 3-0 record, but its defense has impressed, and freshman quarterback Malik Washington is a stud. The talent gap between Maryland and Wisconsin isn't wide enough to justify a 9.5-point spread, especially considering the injuries Wisconsin is dealing with.

Wisconsin quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. missed the last two weeks, including Saturday's 38-14 loss to Alabama, with a knee injury. His status versus the Terrapins is uncertain. Backup quarterback Danny O'Neil already has four picks on the season. Wisconsin's starting center is also questionable with a lower-body injury.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: North Carolina +6.5

Has anyone paid attention to North Carolina since the embarrassing loss to TCU that kicked off the Bill Belichick era? I doubt it, so let me fill you in. The Tar Heels have won and covered their last two games, scoring a combined 61 points and allowing nine points. They weren't playing power conference opponents, but North Carolina has clearly made strides in the last two weeks. Plus, UCF is one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and struggled in its opener against Jacksonville State.

UNC quarterback Gio Lopez has showcased his dual-threat ability in the last two games and made some solid throws while limiting turnovers, which is what Belichick envisioned when he recruited him. UCF is at home and coming off a bye, but this is too many points for evenly matched teams.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Michigan -2.5

Michigan's offense didn't look pretty against Oklahoma, but that was Bryce Underwood's first road test as a true freshman. His experience against the Sooners should help him prepare for the atmosphere at Nebraska. Michigan relies on its rushing attack and defense, two units that typically translate well on the road. Underwood racked up a career-high 114 rushing yards last week as the Wolverines finally unleashed him as a runner.

I don't put much stock in Michigan being without head coach Sherrone Moore due to a suspension. The Wolverines will move the ball via their ground game and let their gifted defense earn enough stops.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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