CFB Week 11 picks: Texas Tech huge favorite in Big 12 battle

Week 11 features multiple ranked matchups, including a top-10 showdown, as the regular season nears its end. The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first rankings of the season Tuesday, and many ranked teams are competing for their playoff lives this week.

We've had many winning weeks and some losing ones, as we sit 26-15 (63%) over our last 41 picks. This edition features seven bets to get you through Saturday's slate.

👉 Check out all college football Week 11 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 12 p.m. ET

🏈 Pick: Texas Tech -10.5

It's rare to see an undefeated team as a double-digit underdog. But it's a losing proposition to fade Texas Tech, which is 8-1 against the spread this season, with its lone loss coming in a road defeat to Arizona State.

While the spread may seem large based on the teams' records, the Red Raiders really are that much better. They own the Big 12's top scoring offense and defense and average 51.6 points at home. BYU can't keep up.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Missouri +6.5

I'm not saying Texas A&M is overrated, but let's properly evaluate its schedule before we crown it the SEC champion. Somehow, the Aggies haven't played a single ranked conference opponent. While their unblemished resume is impressive, it's not as noteworthy as that of other SEC teams looking up at them in the standings.

Missouri has competed in close games versus ranked foes Vanderbilt and Alabama in the last month. The Tigers, who rank first in the SEC in time of possession, slow the game down with the conference's best rushing attack and a defense that allows the fewest yards per game. That's a helpful approach when starting a freshman quarterback. Their strategy keeps contests tight, and it should work against Texas A&M.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Oregon -6.5

This matchup pits Oregon's second-best rushing attack against Iowa's third-best rushing defense. Both teams rely on the ground game, but the Ducks have a capable passing game, while the Hawkeyes rank dead last in the Big Ten in passing yards per game. Oregon also owns the conference's best passing defense, meaning Iowa has no chance of moving the ball through the air and the Ducks can sell out to take the run away. Even at home, the Hawkeyes won't score enough to keep this within a touchdown.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Alabama -10.5

I've written previously about how hard it is to predict whether a team will take accountability and play harder after its coach is fired or if it'll roll over and quit. I choose the latter here. LSU just isn't that good. Its offensive line is a disaster, and it can't run the ball. While the passing game can be productive, the Tigers' lack of balance prevents them from having an explosive offense.

Alabama has won seven straight games, including four over ranked teams, and its offense has become elite with Ty Simpson under center. There are few teams - if any - that can compete with the Crimson Tide right now. LSU, fresh off getting rid of Brian Kelly, certainly isn't one of them.

Game time: 12 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Indiana -14.5

Indiana is as hot as any team in the nation, having decimated inferior opponents over the last few weeks. The Hoosiers defeated Michigan State, UCLA, and Maryland by an average of 40 points. Penn State is even worse. The Nittany Lions have lost five straight games and haven't beaten a power conference opponent all season.

Happy Valley is typically a difficult place to play, but the early excitement surrounding this matchup has completely dwindled. There won't be the usual juice in State College.

👉 Check out all college football Week 11 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 4 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5

Auburn has lost five of its last six games and just scored a whopping three points against Kentucky, which has the third-worst scoring defense in the SEC. The Tigers were already a disaster before firing Hugh Freeze. We'll continue fading teams playing in their first game after a coaching change. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is still in the playoff hunt and has a prime bounce-back opportunity following its loss to Texas.

Game time: 12 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Temple +6.5

Temple has won two of its last three games and sits one victory away from becoming bowl eligible. The reasoning for this pick is simple. These are two evenly matched teams in what will assuredly be a low-scoring affair. Army rarely throws the ball. The Black Knights instead bleed the clock through the run game, limiting the total possessions and scoring opportunities. With that formula, I don't trust them to build a touchdown lead against the well-rounded Owls.

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