MNF betting preview: Can Dolphins snap 3-game skid?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The Rams (4-4) remain alive in the mediocre NFC West and are two wins behind the first-place Cardinals. Los Angeles' playoff hopes could take a hit with a Monday Night Football loss as Arizona surges and the 49ers become healthy.

The Dolphins (2-6) are undergoing a lost season as Tua Tagovailoa's four-game absence tanked their playoff hopes. While they're not mathematically eliminated and could go on a miraculous run to finish the season, the Dolphins are +425 (19% implied probability) to make the postseason.

Miami is 0-2 since Tagovailoa returned from a concussion, but both were competitive losses to quality teams. The Dolphins scored 54 points in the past two weeks with Tagovailoa under center after combining for 50 points in the five weeks prior.

Mike McDaniel's offense has life again, which bodes well for Miami against a struggling Rams defense.

Key trends

• Both teams have struggled against the spread. The Dolphins are 2-6 ATS and the Rams are 3-5.
• The Rams are 31-30-3 ATS at home under Sean McVay.
• The Dolphins are 6-8 ATS as road underdogs under McDaniel.
• Tagovailoa is 3-9 ATS in night games, and he's 1-6 ATS in his past seven starts.
• Under McDaniel, Miami is 1-4 ATS in its next matchup after playing the Bills. The Dolphins lost to Buffalo last week.

Insights

Public and sharp bettors like the Rams to cover at home. As for the total, almost 70% of bets and 60% of the handle is on over 48.5.

Best bet - Dolphins +2.5

The Rams allow 360 yards per game, eighth worst in the NFL. They also have the ninth-worst pass defense. Miami's offensive resurgence hasn't produced wins in recent weeks, but it should Monday night against an exploitable defense. Plus, the Dolphins rank top 10 in total defense and the Rams' offense hasn't been consistent enough to trust.

Players to watch

Tyreek Hill over 80.5 receiving yards

Tyreek Hill has had a down season, mostly because of Miami's revolving door of quarterbacks. But that's about to change. Miami knows it must feed its superstar playmaker more. The Rams have a weak pass defense, so getting the ball to Hill and letting his explosiveness carry the Dolphins should be part of the game plan.

Tua Tagovailoa over 249.5 passing yards

The Dolphins must rely on Tagovailoa's arm to beat the Rams. He hasn't exceeded this passing total since he returned, but he threw for at least 230 yards the past two weeks. Quarterbacks have torn apart Los Angeles' secondary all season, and Tagovailoa should do the same.

Cooper Kupp over 6.5 receptions

When healthy, Cooper Kupp is Matthew Stafford's favorite target. Kupp is averaging 8.7 receptions in four games this season. The Rams throw the ball a ton, meaning Kupp won't lack targets.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.