Key takeaways and analysis from Week 12 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

It's OK to pay RBs

A running back getting anything resembling a big-money contract inevitably creates a stir in today's anti-RB world. Does it really have to be this way, though? Make all the position-value arguments you want - good football players are good football players.

Saquon Barkley, most notably, has been spectacular after joining the Eagles on a three-year, $37.75-million deal in free agency. His franchise-record 255-yard effort against the Rams on Sunday night puts him up to 1,392 rushing yards on the year, already setting a new career high after 11 games.

The blazing start also has Barkley on a 17-game pace for 2,151 rushing yards, which would break the single-season record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. He's in the mix to be the first running back to take home MVP honors since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Josh Jacobs, who landed in Green Bay on a four-year, $48-million deal, has been an important addition to the Packers' offense amid an up-and-down season for Jordan Love. Jacobs put together his most productive game yet in Sunday's win over the 49ers, running for 106 yards and three touchdowns. His 15 missed tackles on the day represent the most of any ball carrier in a game this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

And then there's Derrick Henry, who had to settle for a two-year, $16-million deal to join the Ravens. The future Hall of Famer enters Monday night with 1,185 rushing yards, putting him second between Barkley and Jacobs among the NFL's leading rushers. Remember when Jerry Jones claimed the Cowboys simply couldn't afford Henry in free agency?

Yes, average running backs can produce at a decently high level by getting what's blocked for them as part of a good system. If you've got a great supporting cast, you can absolutely get away with hoping to hit on some late-round picks at running back. But these special players can, and will, take your offense to another level.

At a time when the premier free agents at the position are pulling in less than $13 million, how is this even still a discussion?

Don't be like the Giants - pay good players.

Not again, Kliff

It was only fair to exercise a little bit of patience before declaring that Kliff Kingsbury's offense was once again falling off a ... cliff in the second half of the season.

I, for one, shrugged off last week's performance in Philadelphia as a matter of Washington being overwhelmed by an objectively more talented Eagles team. There's no such excuse available this time around.

Sunday's game against a horrific Cowboys defense should have been the perfect get-right spot for the Commanders' offense. While the final score may seem like an indication of an improved effort on that side of the ball, it's more so a reflection of some all-time wackiness in the fourth quarter. A few late explosives do little to mask the stench that emanated from that unit throughout the rest of the day.

(EPA model via TruMedia)

Maybe a second-half drop-off was inevitable for this offense, as it's tough to sustain a high-level passing game with one reliable threat at receiver, and the shortcomings on the offensive line don't help, either. But it seemed like a strong run game, at the very least, could keep things humming down the stretch.

Jayden Daniels was the only player to put up respectable rushing numbers against a Cowboys defense that entered this week a distant last in rush EPA. Commanders running backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the day.

Kingsbury is going to need to buck this career-long trend and make some adjustments if Washington is going to hold onto its playoff spot and make any noise in January. Doing so will probably be the key to his chances of getting another head coaching job, too.

No room for error

The 49ers never stood much of a chance this week in Green Bay. A long list of injury absences, including Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, and Nick Bosa, was always going to be too much to overcome against this kind of opponent.

In that sense, there's not a whole lot we can take away from this result. San Francisco still has all the pieces it needs for another playoff run, assuming key players are back on the field down the stretch. Time is running out, though.

Sunday's defeat drops the 49ers to 5-6 with six games to play. That means it could take a perfect finish to get them back to the playoffs. At worst, they'll need to go 5-1 in their remaining games. That's a big enough ask when you consider their inconsistent level of play to this point, but it feels nearly impossible when factoring in the remaining schedule.

Difficult matchups with the Bills and Lions, alone, may be enough to keep San Francisco out of the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Add in a few other challenging opponents, including the pair of remaining NFC West games, and the 49ers own the NFL's fifth-toughest remaining schedule.

A down year may be tolerable for most teams, but it's important to remember the window for this core was already closing. Williams is in the late stages of his career as one of the best left tackles we've ever seen, and a looming extension for Purdy is drastically going to change how the roster can be constructed.

The 49ers may have missed their best chance to win a Super Bowl with this star-studded team.

Quick slants

Patience is key

It seems Bryce Young may have benefitted from the opportunity to take a step back and reset. The 2023 No. 1 pick has now started four games since making his return to the field after over a month on the sideline, with each appearance more encouraging than the last. Young was the primary factor in the Panthers giving the Chiefs a scare this week. He was blitzed on a season-high 40% of his dropbacks on the day, completing 11 of 14 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown in those opportunities, according to Next Gen Stats. He also went 9 of 16 for 165 yards on attempts of 10-plus air yards. The Panthers could have completely thrown in the towel when Young didn't look the part early in Year 2. They deserve credit for taking their time and turning away trade inquiries they received at the deadline. Young still has a chance to emerge as a true franchise quarterback, even if it takes longer than many would have liked.

Texans in trouble

The Texans were supposed to take the next step and emerge as a Super Bowl contender this season. Instead, they've mastered the art of finding ways to lose. C.J. Stroud is making the kind of mistakes nobody expected after a spectacular rookie season, and some untimely big plays are washing out some otherwise strong defensive performances. We saw it in Week 10 against the Lions, where the Texans somehow fell short despite intercepting Jared Goff five times. Bewildering football was again an issue this week, as Houston fell to a dreadful Titans team despite getting to Will Levis for eight sacks and taking an interception back for a touchdown. Houston is going to cruise to another AFC South title, but it's getting tough to expect much beyond that. Upgrading the offensive line to better support Stroud's development is a must looking ahead to the offseason.

Back in business

Tua Tagovailoa will forever be battling the "system quarterback" label. That's just the unfortunate reality of being surrounded by dynamic weapons in a QB-friendly scheme. But this isn't an offense that can be run by anyone you throw out there. This season has given us all the evidence we need on that front. The Dolphins were embarrassing to watch in Tua's absence. In the five games since his return, Miami's offense is tied with Detroit and Baltimore for the second-most EPA/play. A tough test awaits Thursday night in Green Bay. If the Dolphins can make it four straight wins, we should probably start having a conversation about whether this team has what it takes to sneak into the playoffs.

Silver lining

Another heartbreaking defeat marks five straight losses for the Bears, all but ensuring that Chicago will miss out on the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. That's a particularly disappointing outcome after a favorable schedule helped the Bears jump out to a 4-2 start. But we're well past the point where wins and losses are determining success for this team. This year is all about the development of Caleb Williams, and Bears fans should be thrilled that everything appears to be back on track in that department. The change at offensive coordinator led to some immediate results last week, and Williams followed that up with a season-best performance against a tough Minnesota defense on Sunday. A few big-time throws, including a sensational heave on the run, offer an important reminder of his ceiling - there aren't many quarterbacks with his physical gifts. The right coaching hires could lead to a lot of fun next season in Chicago.

Levis roller coaster

Will Levis is a fascinating watch. That can be a compliment or a critique. In his case, it depends on the snap. Sunday's game in Houston was mostly good. He completed 18 of 24 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns, making plenty of big plays against a stout Texans defense. He also took eight sacks and almost gave the game away with another brutal pick-6. The negative plays are almost certainly enough to have the Titans looking elsewhere at quarterback, but he also clearly still has some upside. The Titans getting a win to tentatively move outside the top-five picks probably helps his chances of sticking around beyond this year.

Seahawks' defense steps up

The Seahawks are still searching for consistency on defense, but the flashes of brilliance have been incredibly impressive. Sunday's game against the Cardinals represented the unit's best performance to date, holding Arizona to a pair of field goals and pulling away for good with a second-half pick-6. This is exactly why Mike Macdonald was one of the top candidates in last year's coaching cycle. Give him an offseason to bring in more players to fit his defensive scheme, and we could see many more results like this. The future is bright in Seattle.

Draft order check-in

A cluster of two-win teams has been reduced as the Titans and Browns each picked up their third victory of the season this week. That now leaves the Jaguars, Giants, and Raiders as the front-runners for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. A tough finishing schedule, along with the move to start Tommy DeVito, may well make the Giants the current favorite. But a Week 16 Toilet Bowl between the Jaguars and Raiders will be a pivotal moment looking ahead to April.

Stat of the week