Super Bowl rewind: Chiefs come back as 'dogs to defeat Eagles in SB LVII

The Eagles and Chiefs will meet in Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9, a rematch of Super Bowl LVII two seasons ago. In one of the most thrilling Super Bowls in recent memory, Kansas City mounted a second-half comeback to defeat Philadelphia 38-35.

The Eagles entered the game as 1.5-point favorites after finishing 14-3 in the regular season and steamrolling weak NFC playoff opponents. Over 60% of the bets were on the Eagles to cover, but more money was on the Chiefs.

Philadelphia's 2022 offense had similar personnel to this year's group except for one key piece: Saquon Barkley. While the Eagles had a top-five rushing attack in 2022 led by Miles Sanders, their run game with Barkley is the NFL's best and significantly more explosive. Barkley is 30 yards away from breaking Terrell Davis' 1998 single-season rushing record (playoffs included) of 2,476.

The Eagles rushed for 115 yards in Super Bowl LVII, but quarterback Jalen Hurts accounted for 70. No running back carried the ball more than eight times or rushed for over 22 yards. That won't be the case in the rematch, as Philadelphia has leaned on its unstoppable run game throughout the campaign. Barkley is averaging 147 rushing yards on 22 carries per contest this postseason.

Philly's 17-point second quarter helped give them a 10-point lead at halftime in Super Bowl LVII. The Chiefs, slight -105 underdogs pregame, climbed as high as +380 on the live moneyline following Jake Elliott's field goal before halftime to put the Eagles up 24-14. But as almost every Chiefs playoff opponent has discovered, no lead is safe against Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City's star quarterback orchestrated a 12-play drive with five minutes remaining and the contest knotted at 35, eventually resulting in a game-clinching field goal to crown the Chiefs Super Bowl champs and gift Mahomes the second ring of his career.

Mahomes opened at +140 to win Super Bowl MVP, but that soared to as high as +500 when the Chiefs trailed. Despite throwing for only 182 yards and falling short of his 252.5 passing prop, Mahomes won the individual honor. Hurts played one of the best games of his career on the brightest stage. He cleared his 238.5 passing prop, throwing for 304 yards and totaling four touchdowns - three rushing and one passing.

The Eagles' top weapons all had big games. DeVonta Smith caught seven passes for 100 yards, A.J. Brown caught six passes for 96 yards, and Dallas Goedert had seven receptions for 60 yards. Travis Kelce was Kansas City's leading receiver with six catches for 81 yards.

The game soared past the 50.5 total as both offenses exploded, which most bettors predicted. Over 60% of the tickets and 75% of the money was on the over.

The following season went differently for each squad. The Eagles started 10-1 before losing six of their last seven and bowing out in the first round following an epic end-of-season collapse. Meanwhile, the Chiefs struggled throughout the regular season but kicked in another gear for the postseason. They were underdogs in the Super Bowl against the 49ers. And again, Kansas City clawed back from a halftime deficit to defeat San Francisco in overtime, capturing its second straight Super Bowl and Mahomes' third overall.

Two years later, the spread has flipped as the Chiefs are slight 1.5-point favorites over the Eagles. After Kansas City won the last two Super Bowls as underdogs, oddsmakers wouldn't dare assign Mahomes the 'dog label in the Big Game. Mahomes has a remarkable 17-3 playoff record, is 4-0 as an underdog, and has covered 15 of his 20 postseason games. However, underdogs have won three of the last four Super Bowls and 10 of the past 17.

The total is 49.5, one point off of Super Bowl LVII. While the Chiefs personnel is largely the same, the Eagles have revamped their defense, trading in aging veterans for a youthful presence. Philadelphia has eight new defensive starters from two seasons ago, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, a finalist for Assistant Coach of the Year, is in his first season with the Eagles.

Most of the early money and bets are on Philadelphia to cover, but 66% of the handle (money wagered) is on the Chiefs' moneyline. The over has garnered a whopping 90% of bets.

Kansas City's last two Super Bowls have come down to the final minutes, resulting in three-point wins. The Chiefs have needed Mahomes' magic and some good fortune to capture the titles. If the line is any indication, next Sunday's contest will be just as riveting as the Chiefs attempt to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls while the Eagles look to avoid becoming a footnote in Kansas City's dynasty.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.