NFL Week 9 picks: Lions to steamroll Vikings in McCarthy's return

An 8-5 record across all picks marks a second straight winning week, and going 2-1 on five-star plays maintains a winning percentage of 56.3% on our most confident selections over the past five weeks.

Let's keep this profitable stretch rolling with selections against the spread (ATS) for Sunday's slate. You can find my Sunday Night Football bets in a standalone article.

👉 Check out all of the Week 9 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late Slate

🏈 Pick: Broncos (+1.5)

Consider me a Texans doubter. They've won two of their last three games, but one of them was against a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson, and the other was against the beat-up 49ers.

Houston has yet to prove itself against a true playoff team. The Broncos are one of those, even without Pat Surtain II (on the IR with a pectoral injury). Denver's defense is deep enough to withstand his absence, and its elite pass rush will give C.J. Stroud a ton of trouble.

Both teams' defenses rate similarly, but I simply trust the Broncos' offense more, even on the road.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Giants (+2.5)

The 49ers are hurting, and all those injuries may be catching up to them. They've lost their last two road games - 30-19 to the Buccaneers and 26-15 to the Texans - although they beat the Falcons in between in prime time at home. Now, they make the long trek across the country to play a 1 p.m. game against the Giants, a flawed but scrappy team.

The Giants played back-to-back road games against the Broncos and Eagles - two tough spots for Jaxson Dart. New York is 2-2 at home this season, having defeated the Chargers and Eagles, so pulling off the small upset over San Francisco shouldn't be too tall a task.

Cam Skattebo's injury is more of an emotional loss than one that will affect the Giants' play, since most running backs are easily replaceable in the NFL. Tyrone Tracy Jr. shouldn't have an issue stepping in as their lead back.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Colts (-3.5)

The Colts are one of the best teams in the NFL. At 7-1, there's no debate that they're AFC contenders with multiple marquee victories on their resume. Daniel Jones and Co. now face another tough test as road favorites in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have lost two in a row: on the road in Cincinnati and at home to the Packers. Giving up 35 to Green Bay last week is a sign that this Steelers defense isn't close to what we've become accustomed to seeing in Pittsburgh. The Colts have all their weapons available to exploit Pittsburgh's old and slow defense, which should make covering the 3.5 points rather easy.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Packers (-12.5)

The Panthers' three-game winning streak ended with a blowout loss at home to the Bills. Carolina may have fooled us all into believing they'd exceed expectations, but that run seems to have come to a screeching halt. The Panthers scored 15 points in their last two games and now face the Packers' defense in Lambeau Field with Bryce Young, who missed last week with an ankle injury, at quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Packers broke out of a mini-slump last week thanks to their 10-point win in Pittsburgh. They'd been struggling to cover spreads despite winning, playing close games against the Cardinals, Bengals, and Cowboys.

This is a big spread, but the Packers' offense has scored 27 or more points in four straight games, and I think the Panthers will have trouble scoring double-digit points.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Lions (-9.5)

Initially, I attempted to make a case for the Vikings in this spot. This is a lot of points to cover in a divisional game, and Minnesota's a bit of an unknown commodity with J.J. McCarthy back under center.

But that was a waste of time. Detroit has been very good at home this season, going 3-0 while averaging 36.7 points per game. The Lions are also coming off a bye and have a slight rest advantage over the Vikings, who played Thursday last week.

The Vikings' defense is giving up 130.4 rushing yards per game, setting the stage for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to have a big day on the ground.

McCarthy has played two NFL games and looked good for a single quarter. It's hard to trust him to keep up with the Lions' offense, which should be able to put at least 30 points on the board.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Chargers (-9.5)

I'm taking the favorite in several big-spread games, but it's hard to build a case for teams like the Titans and Panthers. Tennessee is 2-6 against the spread this season while being a big underdog and has yet to cover at home.

Chargers tackle Joe Alt returned last week and made an immediate difference. The team scored 37 points on the Vikings, and Justin Herbert threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns. The Chargers' offensive line had been decimated by injuries, and getting Alt back was a huge boost.

Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is likely to miss another game for Tennessee, a big blow to a defense that lacks talent. The Titans won't have any answers for the Chargers' offense and won't be able to score enough points to keep pace.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Patriots (-5.5)

The Patriots are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, sitting atop the AFC East at 6-2. They've also caught the betting market by surprise with a 6-2 record ATS.

Once again, this spread doesn't reflect how well the Patriots have been playing. Drake Maye is in the MVP conversation, and Mike Vrabel has the defense competing at a high level. New England allows the eighth-fewest points and the second-fewest rushing yards per game.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are licking their wounds after being blown out by the Dolphins at home. While they could rebound with a better effort, they're heading in the wrong direction. Michael Penix Jr. should be back, but he doesn't inspire enough confidence going up against one of the hottest teams in the league.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Bengals (+2.5)

In an attempt to balance out taking so many favorites, I'll go with the Bengals as slight underdogs at home. Joe Flacco has given Cincinnati new life, unlocking Ja'Marr Chase and scoring a ton of points in the process. The Bengals have scored 71 points in two games with Flacco. If only their defense could stop anyone. It's worth noting that Flacco is dealing with a shoulder injury, but he was a limited participant in Thursday's practice and trending toward playing.

Caleb Williams, meanwhile, is too inconsistent to trust on the road. The Bears have won two games away from Chicago this season, both of them by a point. They lost to Tyler Huntley's Ravens by 14 last week.

This game could turn into a shootout, and it's crazy to say, but I trust Flacco to get the job done in that scenario at home.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

👉 Check out all of the Week 9 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Raiders (+2.5)

Flip a coin to determine which Jaguars team you're going to get. Jacksonville beat the Chiefs in prime time at home, then lost back-to-back home games and only scored 15 points over that stretch.

The same could be said of the Raiders, who lost 31-0 to the Chiefs in Week 7 before their bye. They also got smoked on the road by the Colts but squeezed in a home win over the Titans between those two bad losses.

I have zero feel for this game given how unpredictable these teams are, which leads me to take the home underdog.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Rams (-14.5)

Rookie Tyler Shough will get the start at quarterback for New Orleans. He couldn't win the No. 1 job in training camp, but the Saints need to see what they have in their second-round pick.

Facing the Rams in L.A. is a tough spot for your first NFL start. The Saints are 1-7 and showing no signs of improving. The talk around the team is about who will get traded, not anything happening on the field.

The Rams are coming off their bye and getting Puka Nacua back. They beat the Jaguars by 28 in their last game, and New Orleans is a lot worse. This one has "blowout" written all over it.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Bills (+2.5)

This is by far the most intriguing matchup of the week. Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen is always appointment viewing.

Very little separates these teams, but the spread suggests the Bills would be roughly 5.5-point underdogs if this game were to be played in Kansas City and four-point underdogs on a neutral field. Both of those spreads seem to favor the Chiefs too heavily, making Buffalo the side to take.

The Bills dismantled the Panthers in their first game following their bye, a positive sign that suggests they made changes during their time off. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were deadlocked with the Commanders at halftime Monday night before Washington laid a second-half egg, making it seem like the whole game wasn't competitive.

This should be a thriller that will likely come down to the final few possessions. In the end, Buffalo is at home with a slight rest advantage, and the spread seems to favor Kansas City a little more than I'm comfortable with.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

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