NFL Week 12 picks: Do Chiefs face must-win game vs. Colts?

We posted a 7-8 record against the spread last week, losing a couple of close ones by half a point. On the bright side, a few tight games did go our way. The Chargers were one of my favorite picks of the week, and they couldn't have laid a bigger egg on the road in Jacksonville. Apologies if you rode them with me.

Let's turn the page to Week 12 and hope to turn a profit. You can find Sunday Night Football's bets in a seperate article.

👉 Check out all of the Week 12 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Lions (-12.5)

The Lions struggled against the Eagles last week, scoring nine points on Sunday Night Football. The market may be slightly down on Detroit while a tad high on the Giants, who hung around at home against the Packers. The Lions are averaging 33.5 points at home this season, and I don't see a way New York keeps up.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Ravens (-13.5)

Tyrod Taylor is getting the nod for the Jets. Given New York's bleak receiving options, the quarterback switch shouldn't have much of an impact. If the Ravens were coasting with a 7-3 record, I could see them letting up a bit against the Jets. However, Baltimore is fighting for a playoff spot at 5-5 and can't afford to take its foot off the gas.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Titans (+13.5)

This is a lot of points to cover for a road team traveling across the country. The Titans covered as 9.5-point underdogs against the Chargers three weeks ago and lost by only three points to the Texans in their last outing. While Seattle is a far superior team and should easily win, Tennessee could pull off the backdoor cover and lose 27-14.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Patriots (-6.5)

Winners of eight straight and holding the top spot in the AFC East, the Patriots are rolling. Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level and should be too much for the Bengals' horrible defense to handle. Joe Borrow is questionable for this game, while Joe Flacco is dealing with a shoulder injury. Regardless of who's at quarterback, Cincinnati will be without Ja'Marr Chase, allowing for Christian Gonzalez to shadow Tee Higgins. With the Patriots' team total sitting at 29.5, expect the Bengals to struggle to score enough points to stay within 7.5.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Vikings (+6.5)

The Packers are a measly 3-7 ATS this season, continuing to be one of the market's most overrated teams. There's a chance Josh Jacobs doesn't play this week, and the Packers' running game is crucial to their success. J.J. McCarthy has faced challenges in his first year as a starter, but he, in combination with the Vikings' defense, should be able to keep this divisional matchup within a touchdown.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Bears (-2.5)

Aaron Rodgers' status is in doubt for this contest after he fractured his left wrist last week, and Mason Rudolph would be his replacement. But even if Rodgers suits up, I still like the Bears laying less than a field goal at home. It hasn't always been pretty, but Chicago keeps winning. The Bears are 3-1 at Soldier Field this season and should handle a mediocre Steelers team.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)

The Colts are coming off a bye, while the Chiefs are fresh off a loss and are beginning to feel desperation. At 5-5, Kansas City sits outside of a playoff spot and needs to keep pace with the rest of the AFC. Anytime you can back Patrick Mahomes to cover in a must-win game at home, you have to do it.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

👉 Check out all of the Week 12 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)

Jacoby Brissett has improved the Cardinals' offense, scoring no fewer than 22 points in four starts. Although Arizona has lost back-to-back games by giving up over 40 points, I don't see the Jaguars' offense exploding like that on the road. Jacksonville is 1-3 ATS away from home this season and will likely need to score four touchdowns to cover this spread.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Browns (+3.5)

Backing Shedeur Sanders in his first start is a bit of a risk, but it can't be any worse than Dillon Gabriel. However, this is more of a bet on the Browns' defense to dominate the Raiders' abysmal offense. I also don't feel comfortable trusting the Raiders to win any game, let alone by more than a field goal.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles' offense is off, but their defense is playing at an elite level. They held the Lions to nine points and the Packers to seven in their last two outings, going 2-0 despite scoring a combined 26 points. The Cowboys could be the perfect get-right spot for Philly, as Dallas' defense is allowing the second-most points per game in the league (29.3).

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Falcons (+2.5)

Woof - the total seconds of this contest that I'll be tuning into is under 0.5. The Falcons will have Kirk Cousins stepping in for the injured Michael Penix and will also be missing Drake London. Even so, there's no way I can lay any amount of points with the 2-8 Saints led by Tyler Shough.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

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