Running analysis from the NFL's Thanksgiving Day games

Follow along throughout the day as we break down everything you need to know from an exciting slate of Thanksgiving games.

Live analysis 🔴

Ravens offense in trouble

It might be time to start worrying about the Ravens offense. I was holding off on it for a while, thinking this unit would inevitably recapture at least some of the magic from last year's historic output. It's difficult to stay patient after what we saw against the Bengals. Baltimore was unable to capitalize on the clear get-right matchup, finding the end zone just twice and turning the ball over five times. Three of those turnovers came from Lamar Jackson, his most since 2021. The Bengals defense entered this week ranked last in EPA/play, according to TruMedia. The Ravens, of all teams, allowed them to put up their best single-game performance by that metric since 2020. That simply can't happen if you're Baltimore. It would probably be silly to write off an offense with this much playmaking talent, but the entire operation feels out of sync right now. And they don't have much time left to figure it out.

What if Bengals win out?

Anyone who was watching Thursday's broadcast heard a lot about how the Bengals still have a chance to make a run at the underwhelming AFC North. A postseason appearance remains wildly unlikely, with Next Gen Stats putting their playoff odds at 1%, but it's true - they aren't done yet. After stunning the Ravens in the Thanksgiving night cap, the Bengals can still get to 9-8 by winning each of their last five games. The next two are the toughest of the bunch, as they'll travel to Buffalo next week before returning home for a second meeting with Baltimore. Then they finish light with Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland. The Bengals would also need plenty of help from the Ravens (6-6) and Steelers (6-5), but it's not like either club is firing on all cylinders right now. The important part: if the Bengals can continue to play like they did Thursday night, complementing Joe Burrow with a really solid defensive performance, they at least have a chance at taking care of the results that are in their control.

He's so back

OK, now Joe Burrow's really cooking. After getting his feet back under him in the first half, Burrow suddenly looks like he's been playing the entire season. The Bengals quarterback capped a 10-play drive to start the third quarter with a pinpoint strike to Tanner Hudson, who came down with a highlight-reel grab in the end zone. The touchdown on the following drive was arguably even more impressive, as Burrow got the blitz blocked up pre-snap, calmly stepped up in the pocket, and delivered a 29-yard dime to Andrei Iosivas deep down the middle. It's been a while since the Ravens' defense was made to look like this. A locked-in Burrow tends to have that effect on opponents.

Ravens offense still sputtering

The scoreboard probably looks quite a bit different if Isaiah Likely doesn't lose the ball through the end zone on a near-touchdown, but that wasn't the only play holding the Ravens back in the first half. Lamar Jackson coughed up two fumbles of his own, and I once again find myself wondering how a team that employs Derrick Henry is so quick to abandon the run game. Henry had five first-quarter carries, including a 28-yard touchdown. In the second? Not a single touch. The Bengals defense entered this week ranked 32nd in rush success rate. Jackson has had some nice moments making plays outside of structure, suggesting he's getting more comfortable after missing time with a hamstring injury. But he's now gone 10 quarters without a touchdown. The offense has to take advantage of this favorable matchup in the second half.

There it is

It was only a matter of time before Burrow and Chase got their connection rolling again. The superstar tandem showed out in a big way on Cincinnati's fifth drive of the night, with Burrow hitting his top playmaker on a 43-yard shot down the right sideline. He went right back to Chase a few plays later, hooking up for a 15-yard gain on an out right despite bracket coverage from the cornerback and safety. Burrow finishes the first half 14 of 29 for 161 yards, with Chase accounting for 80 yards on four receptions. The absence of Tee Higgins looms large in this one, as just two of Burrow's ten other completions have gone to a wideout.

Burrow moving well

Joe Burrow's mobility doesn't appear to be limited despite the relatively quick return from his turf toe injury. He's moving around as usual over Cincinnati's first few drives, and the coaching staff isn't really adjusting the offense in a way designed to keep him stationary. He's been outside the pocket, he's creating under pressure, and the Bengals even called his number to convert a quarterback sneak on a key 4th-and-1 play early in the second quarter. The passing attack isn't quite clicking yet - Ja'Marr Chase has hauled in just two of his first five targets - but Burrow would've had a long TD strike to give the Bengals a 10-7 lead if a wide-open Mitchell Tinsley hadn't pulled up on a well-thrown deep ball.

Pregame notes ✍️

Joe Burrow is back. I'm not super into the Bengals having him return so much sooner than expected when their season is effectively over, but the entertainment factor is undeniable. Last season's shootouts between Cincinnati and Baltimore were two of the best games we saw all year.

Although we can expect some rust from Burrow, his presence should provide an enormous boost to a Bengals team that's lost eight of its last nine games. It should also present an interesting test for a Ravens defense that's been trending up after a very slow start. Baltimore ranks fourth in EPA/play and success rate since Kyle Hamilton moved into a role closer to the line of scrimmage in Week 6.

The matchup on the other side of the ball is a little more lopsided, but it's not without intrigue. The Ravens will hope a date with the hapless Bengals defense can allow them to get the offense back on track after a frustrating midseason stretch. Baltimore ranks 12th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate since Lamar Jackson returned in Week 9 - a far cry from that unit's historic output last year.

Live analysis 🔴

Can the Cowboys do it?

The way the NFC is shaping up, the Cowboys were probably going to need to run the table to have a chance at sneaking in as the final wild-card team. After a big win over the Chiefs, it suddenly doesn't seem that crazy. Dallas has won three straight games since the trade deadline, the last two coming against last year's Super Bowl participants. A trio of Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and CeeDee Lamb is leading what may be the NFL's premier offense. And as we discussed earlier, the new pieces added on defense have helped that once-dreadful unit take a small but meaningful step forward. There might only be one remaining game where the Cowboys aren't considered a clear favorite. This unlikely chase gets very real if they can knock off the Lions next Thursday night.

No room for error

Falling to the Cowboys drops the Chiefs to 6-6. They aren't out of it yet - nobody would be surprised if they run off five straight wins to close out the season. But we're now at a point where they can't afford a single slip up. Because while the No. 7 seed could conceivably go to a 10-7 team, the Chiefs have already lost head-to-head matchups against all three teams currently occupying a wild-card (Chargers, Jaguars, Bills). The Chargers do have a tough schedule to finish the season, including their second matchup against Kansas City, so perhaps that's one team they could chase down with a seventh loss. But the Chiefs now only have a 39% chance to make the playoffs, according to Next Gen Stats, and that number will drop even further if the current wild cards take their favorable matchups this weekend. Winning out is a must, and that starts next week against the Texans. That's not exactly an ideal matchup for a team dealing with three injured starters on the offensive line.

Pickens payday incoming

This has been inevitable for a while now, but it's worth mentioning amid another standout performance - George Pickens is getting more expensive by the day. The Cowboys wideout made a sensational play to get his team in range for a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, spinning out of a tackle to get the first down, blowing by a defender, and nearly completing the hurdle over another. Javonte Williams found the end zone a few plays later, and Pickens followed it up with a two-point conversion to make it a seven-point lead. The Cowboys have already had their share of adventures with recent negotiations, and they may not love the idea of paying Pickens more than $30 million per year with a few other monster contracts on the books. But they also probably don't have a choice. He's emerged as a legitimate superstar in Dallas, making this passing game virtually unstoppable. Getting him for a third-round pick was the best move of the entire offseason, and one of the biggest trade steals we've seen in a long time.

Chiefs down both tackles

Kansas City ruled out Josh Simmons (wrist) and Jawaan Taylor (elbow) for the rest of the day with injuries. Already without Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith for this game, the Chiefs' offensive line is suddenly in extremely rough shape. Mahomes can and will continue to make magic when a play breaks down, but - as we saw in the Super Bowl - there's only so much one can do when the front five is completely overmatched. Losing any of these starters for an extended period would be a crushing blow for Kansas City over the regular season's final five weeks, especially with the Texans up next.

More conservative coaching

Full credit to Dallas' defense for forcing two more Kansas City punts to open the second half, but Andy Reid gets an assist on the second one. Kicking the ball back to one of the best offenses in football on a fourth-and-4 from your opponent's 44-yard line while trailing by three points is an indefensible decision. It doesn't even matter that the Chiefs pinned the Cowboys deep. Dallas getting back to the 40-yard line just three plays later demonstrates the danger in giving up possession to a high-powered offense, no matter the field position. Fortunately for the Chiefs, Brian Schottenheimer was content to bail them out by opting for a field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-3 from the 13-yard line. This could have easily ended up a two-possession game. It's bizarre to see coaches, including one of the best of all time, struggle with decisions that the most basic data could help you optimize.

Defense doing just enough

A few midseason trades, no matter the magnitude, were always unlikely to suddenly make the Cowboys' defense any good. There was just too much work to be done after a historically bad start to the season. As we've seen of late, though, the bold moves were at least enough to make the unit decidedly less terrible. That progress was the key to Dallas coming out of the first half with a three-point lead over the Chiefs. Again, a stop or two is really all you need to have a chance with an offense like this. The defense delivered exactly that by forcing back-to-back punts to close out the second quarter, making the most of three straight scoring drives after the early pick. The Cowboys have an opportunity to put the Chiefs in a really uncomfortable position if the defense can get the ball back to Dak Prescott with a lead on the other side of the half.

Chiefs going under center

The Chiefs have long relied on a shotgun-heavy offense. It's understandable if that's where your generational quarterback is most comfortable, but there has to be at least a bit of give and take. Recent struggles appear to have led the offense to finally embrace the under-center run game. Considering the potential payoff, maybe it was all worth it. Kansas City entered this week producing minus-0.10 EPA/rush out of shotgun, and 0.20 EPA/rush under center. The latter figure is second only to the Colts. More of those under-center looks appeared during the Chiefs' second drive of Thursday's game, with similarly impressive results. Keep an eye on this trend both for the rest of this contest and down the stretch. A consistent rushing attack and the play-action possibilities that come with it could prove to be a game-changer for this group on a potential playoff run.

Dream start for Chiefs

What a way for the Chiefs to open a must-win game. It'll take a lot more than a few plays to ease concerns about this team's recent performance, but jumping out to an early lead and forcing the Cowboys to play from behind will go a long way toward making this a successful day. Steve Spagnuolo's unique ability to dial up pressure showed up on the first drive of the game, as Dak Prescott had a free rusher bearing down on him as he served up an early interception. Rashee Rice was on the receiving end of an RPO pass just two plays later, turning up the field and taking it the distance for his fifth touchdown since making his season debut in Week 7.

Pregame notes ✍️

This is probably going to be the most-watched Thanksgiving Day game in NFL history, and for good reason. Not only does the matchup feature a pair of marquee franchises, but the stakes couldn't be much higher. The Chiefs (6-5) can't afford more than one loss from here on out if they're going to make the playoffs, and the Cowboys (5-5-1) pretty much need to run the table.

Dallas' defense has crept out of historically bad territory since adding Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, but this still sets up as a get-right spot for the Chiefs' offense. Patrick Mahomes should be able to pick apart the zone-heavy looks from Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus (sixth-highest zone rate in 2025). Then again, if the Chiefs consistently did what they should do, they wouldn't be sitting on the outside looking in at the rest of the AFC playoff teams. It'll be time to smash that panic button if the passing game doesn't get on track this week.

As for the Cowboys, I'm interested to see what the offense can accomplish if the defense indeed has trouble getting off the field. This group can score with anyone, Mahomes included. George Pickens has been incredible, sitting second only to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in receiving, and CeeDee Lamb is likely in for a bounce-back performance after last week's drops. Keep an eye on the trenches, too. New offensive coordinator Klayton Adams might be a sneaky head coaching candidate on account of what his arrival has done for this offensive line. The Chiefs' defense is tied for 22nd in EPA/rush, so Dallas has a real opportunity to have a big day on the ground.

Live analysis 🔴

The best of Love

You really couldn't ask for a better time for Jordan Love to have his best game of the season. The Packers quarterback has quietly posted favorable underlying metrics all year - he entered the week ranked second in EPA/play - but the passing attack wasn't clicking consistently enough for anyone to care. Could a massive win over the Lions be a turning point? Love completed 17 of 28 passes for 218 yards and produced his first four-touchdown game since October 2024. Crucially, he didn't put the ball in harm's way and avoided taking sacks. Additionally, Green Bay's receiving corps flashed some encouraging development, with Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks combining for 158 yards and three scores. Wicks also sealed the game with another big fourth-down catch. Add in Jayden Reed, who appears to be closing in on his return from an extended injury absence, and there's reason to believe this group could get hot at the right time.

Parsons the closer

The Packers aren't going to miss those picks. While the organization has traditionally prioritized building through the draft - Green Bay hadn't traded a first-rounder for a player since Brett Favre - it recognized a special opportunity and seized it. Parsons' ability to wreck a game was on full display in the latter stages of Thursday's win over the Lions. He blew past Taylor Decker for a sack early on Detroit's last offensive possession before bringing down Jared Goff a second time when the Lions reached the 4-yard line. Parsons finished with 10 pressures on just 26 pass-rush snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. He'd be the Defensive Player of the Year if Myles Garrett weren't on pace to break the single-season sack record. Should the Packers put themselves in a position to have Parsons as their closer in January, he could be the difference-maker in chasing down a different piece of hardware.

Lions making do

Nobody would have been surprised if the Amon-Ra St. Brown injury proved too much for the Lions to overcome. Already shorthanded without Sam LaPorta and dealing with some protection issues up front, this offense looked like it could be in trouble - especially playing from behind. But that's simply not how the Lions roll. This team has always displayed a next-man-up mentality, and that's exactly what we've seen with big plays from Isaac TeSlaa and Tom Kennedy. TeSlaa, a third-round rookie, cut the lead to three on a 17-yard touchdown, his first since Week 5. The offensive line will have to hold steady against the Packers' pass-rush in the fourth quarter, but it's been an impressive effort from the Lions regardless of how this one ends.

Packers find the big play

Where would Green Bay's receiving corps be without the return of Christian Watson? Remember, there was real uncertainty as to whether he'd play at all in 2025 after suffering a torn ACL in January. Watson got back on the field for the first time at the end of October, and he's been ramping up his workload ever since. A two-score game against the Giants helped the Packers avoid a crushing upset, and he saw a season-high seven targets last week against the Vikings. His 51-yard score on a deep ball from Jordan Love early in the third quarter today offers a reminder of his ability to stretch the field. The Packers' offense could finally start to approach the level we've all been expecting by consistently taking advantage of this strength.

Refs at it again

Can we go one game without NFL officials somehow becoming main characters? Apparently not. A false start from Anthony Belton on a key fourth-and-1 play from the 2-yard line likely would have led to Green Bay bringing out the field-goal team and trying to make it a 13-7 game in the final minutes of the first half. After some discussion, though, officials ruled that Matt LaFleur had called a timeout before the infraction. The Packers' offense stayed on the field as a result, and Jordan Love found Romeo Doubs for a score to go up 10. The Lions cut the lead back down to three with a clutch TD drive heading into the break. Maybe we're missing something here - LaFleur could have been shouting for the timeout before his gesture. But it seems possible, if not likely, that this is just another officiating blunder. The four-point swing could prove costly for Detroit. You be the judge:

Wicks on the board
22-yard TD catch, 14:19 - 2nd quarter

Injuries to Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, along with some early struggles from first-round rookie Matthew Golden, opened the door for someone like Dontayvion Wicks to seize a featured role in the Packers' passing game. Could this be the start of something? Wicks made an impressive grab through contact for a touchdown on a critical fourth-and-2 early in the second quarter. It's his first score since Week 16 of last season. He's always had route-running ability; with a little more consistency at the catch point, he could easily emerge as an impact player. The Packers might need that from him down the stretch.

St. Brown taken to locker room

Uh oh. Amon-Ra St. Brown was forced to exit midway through the first quarter after getting rolled up on at the end of a run play. He walked off under his own power but went right to the locker room for further evaluation. Detroit officially called it an ankle injury, listing him as questionable to return. Already without Sam LaPorta, the Lions' offense could be in real trouble if St. Brown is forced to miss time. Jameson Williams will get all the targets he can handle from here, and the running backs should be even more involved than usual in the pass game. Let's see if Dan Campbell also gets a little creative in an effort to help pick up the slack.

Packers run well early

I wondered pregame whether the Packers might have some trouble consistently moving the ball on the ground against Detroit. I may have overlooked the potential impact of a lineup change up front. Second-round rookie Anthony Belton got the start at right guard after rotating in at that spot last week, and his powerful presence seems to be a nice addition when it comes to moving bodies on the interior. Josh Jacobs had four carries for 21 yards before a few Jordan Love misses forced Green Bay to settle for a field goal. He also kick-started the offense on the third drive with a 29-yard run.

Pregame notes ✍️

The Lions really need this one. The playoff odds are, of course, a big part of that equation. A win would give Detroit an 86% chance of getting to the postseason, while a loss sends that figure all the way down to 60%, according to Next Gen Stats. But getting there is only the first step. If this team is going to make any sort of deep run, the offense has to find a way to overcome the loss of Sam LaPorta.

The Lions' attack has struggled since the star tight end went down with a back injury in Week 10. They posted 0.16 EPA/play in snaps with LaPorta on the field this season, which would be the best mark league-wide. Without him, they've put up minus-0.12 EPA/play. Sure, it's a relatively small sample, but it's alarming that those numbers are in line with the 28th-ranked Vikings. Jahmyr Gibbs saved the day with a career game that helped Detroit narrowly avoid a loss to the Giants last week. That responsibility can't always fall to the star running back, though - particularly against a Packers team that held the Lions to 2.1 yards per carry in Week 1. Could this a big spot for Jameson Williams alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown? The speedy wideout, who was held without a catch against New York, needs to be a focal point.

On the other side of things, I'm still waiting for the Packers' offense to look like a championship-caliber scoring attack. Similarly to the Lions, they just don't have the same firepower without Tucker Kraft at tight end. Josh Jacobs is back after missing last week's win over the Vikings, but the passing game will probably have to do most of the heavy lifting against a Detroit defense that's posting a top-five success rate against the run. Will the Packers' offensive line be up to the task if it's forced into more passing situations than it might prefer? Green Bay currently ranks as a bottom-10 team in pressure rate. Jordan Love's ability to create could be a big factor today.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.