NFL Week 18 bets: Which games have meaning in regular-season finale?
Week 18 is by far the trickiest slate of games to bet. Most teams have nothing to play for aside from pride, and those that have already punched their playoff tickets may rest their starters at any point. It's better to err on the side of caution, perhaps by scaling back the amount you wager or picking teams you're confident will give max effort.
Bets for Saturday's two-game slate can be found here, and you can find our bets for the Ravens-Steelers Sunday Night Football game in a separate article.
Alright, let's get to our picks against the spread for Sunday's lineup.
π Check out all of the Week 18 lines on theScore Bet here
Jump to: Late slate
π Pick: Vikings (-7.5)
The Packers have nothing to play for since they are locked into the NFC's third wild-card spot. Therefore, they are starting Clayton Tune and likely sitting several starters on both sides of the ball. The Vikings will likely start J.J. McCarthy, who logged a full practice on Thursday. The second-year quarterback hasn't had the best season but will want to end the season on a high note.
Confidence level: β ββββ
π Pick: Browns (+7.5)
The Browns' defense alone can keep them in this fight. Myles Garrett is going for the single-season sacks record, and you know the entire team wants its leader to get there. Between their full defensive effort and a young quarterback in Shedeur Sanders trying to prove he's an NFL starter, I expect the Browns to show up.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Titans (+13.5)
The Jaguars should easily win this one, but I worry that the backdoor cover is a real possibility. Jacksonville can take the AFC South with a victory, so Trevor Lawrence and the starters will play most of the game. However, if the Jags are up two scores late, I'd expect to see the starters pulled. That gives the Titans a chance to cover the spread.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Texans (-10.5)
The Texans need to win to give themselves a chance at the AFC South title. Perhaps they'll be scoreboard watching, and if they see the Jaguars are up big against the Titans, C.J. Stroud and Co. will exit the game. However, I still expect a dominant Texans performance against a Colts team led by Riley Leonard that can't wait for this season to end.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Giants (+3.5)
The Cowboys have the rest advantage after playing on Christmas Day, but back-to-back games on the road are a tough way to end the season. The Giants dominated in last week's win over the Raiders, which likely wrecked their chances at landing the first overall pick. The Giants proved they aren't playing to tank and should give a solid effort in front of their home crowd to close the season.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Saints (+3.5)
Tyler Shough has surprised many this season and is in the conversation to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. He's led the Saints on a late-season run of four straight victories and will finish with a strong showing on the road in Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an emotional last-second win on Monday Night Football over the Rams. I can see the Falcons failing to bring enough energy to beat the feisty Saints by four or more points.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Check out all of the Week 18 lines on theScore Bet here
π Pick: Raiders (+5.5)
I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole, but if forced to choose, I'll take the home team and the points. The Chiefs are starting Chris Oladokun, and the Raiders, who got blown out last week at home by the Giants, will roll out Kenny Pickett. Everyone on the Raiders is fighting for a job, especially as they're likely heading into the offseason with the No. 1 pick and major roster changes incoming.
Confidence level: β ββββ
π Pick: Bills (-6.5)
Josh Allen missed Thursday's practice with a foot injury, and it would be a shock if he plays Sunday. The Bills can only improve their wild-card seeding, and the health of their quarterback - and the rest of the starters - is far more important than seeding. The Jets are horrible and have packed it in for the season. I expect the Bills' backups to show up and show out for Buffalo's last game at Highmark Stadium.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Bears (-3)
The Bears plan to play their starters with the second seed available in the NFC, which would guarantee them a home game if they reach the divisional round. The Lions' season ended last week, and although they are well-coached, I don't see them bringing maximum effort against a good team in the Chicago cold with nothing to play for.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Eagles (-3.5)
This is a matchup between Tanner McKee and Josh Johnson, and the Eagles' second-stringer gets the nod. Philadelphia is still competing for the second seed in the NFC and would probably like to win this game, although it's not a must. Meanwhile, the Commanders will be looking forward to ending a highly disappointing season after reaching the NFC Championship Game last year.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Patriots (-10.5)
The Patriots can still claim the top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Drake Maye and the rest of New England's starters will play a good chunk of this game, which is enough to make me feel confident backing them. The Dolphins won their final home game of the season last week against the Buccaneers and now make a trip north to play in the cold. I can imagine them leaving their willingness to compete in Miami.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Broncos (-12.5)
Trey Lance gets the call for the Chargers instead of Justin Herbert, so we'll side with the Broncos in Denver in a game they need to win to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Lance remains extremely unproven, and the Broncos' defense may give him nightmares.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Cardinals (+7.5)
The outcome of Saturday's matchup between the Seahawks and 49ers will determine the importance of this game. If the Seahawks win, the Rams could move up to the 5-seed with a victory over the Cardinals and play either the Panthers or Buccaneers in the first round; either opponent would arguably be the playoffs' worst team. If the Seahawks lose, this game becomes meaningless since the Rams will be locked into the 6-seed.
I believe the 49ers will beat the Seahawks, so I'll take the Cardinals and the points against the Rams' backups. This spread could shift drastically in either direction before kickoff, so it's best to take a wait-and-see approach.
Confidence level: β ββββ
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