Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs
During the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, theScore's hockey writers are sharing observations on the frenzied action around the NHL. Check back daily for new analysis on key players and battles, statistical quirks and trends, and storylines to watch.
Monday, April 21
Jets' top trio is dangerous
Continuity strengthens the Presidents' Trophy winner. Six pivotal Jets players - Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Adam Lowry, Josh Morrissey, and Connor Hellebuyck - were part of the 2018 lineup that reached the Western Conference Final and raised expectations for what their group could accomplish.
Winnipeg won one round in the next six years. Pundits knocked the Jets for lacking the sort of superstar forward talent that drove other Western powerhouses - the Avalanche and Golden Knights - to Stanley Cups.
That criticism may underrate Connor and Scheifele. They combined for 80 goals and 184 points this season. Their chemistry with worker bee Alex Iafallo fueled the Jets' dramatic Game 1 comeback win.
Connor-Scheifele-Gabe Vilardi was the NHL's most-used forward line (907 minutes of ice time) during the regular season by an enormous margin. The Jets iced three of the 13 trios around the league that spent more than 500 minutes together, according to MoneyPuck. Head coach Scott Arniel prizes familiarity. But when Ehlers and Vilardi got hurt, his top scorers adapted to the necessary shakeup.
Third-period goals by Iafallo and Connor in the 5-3 opening win over the Blues showcased the line's skill, intelligence, spacing, faceoff prowess, board play, willingness to get to the net, and ability to snipe. Scheifele had two primary assists to complement his earlier power-play tally. All played around 22 minutes as Arniel leaned on his big guns to cement the victory.
The Jets are savvy and structured, and with Hellebuyck in net, no team is better at preventing goals. They build insurmountable leads and went 41-0-1 this season when they were ahead through 40 minutes. When they trail, there's no reason to panic. Connor and Scheifele can reiterate in Monday's Game 2 that they're one of the most dangerous scoring duos in the Cup bracket. - Nick Faris
Caps' Leonard about to pop off?
Every spring, a handful of top prospects join the NHL toward the end of the regular season. The most common case is an American college kid playing out the string on a non-playoff team to burn a year off his entry-level contract.
The 2024-25 campaign was unique, as the high-profile prospects landed almost exclusively on playoff teams. Jimmy Snuggerud, Ryan Leonard, and Zeev Buium left college for the Blues, Capitals, and Wild, respectively, while Ivan Demidov and Alexander Nikishin departed the KHL for the Canadiens and Hurricanes. (Nikishin, a much-hyped defenseman, is the only one still waiting to debut.)
Leonard and Demidov will go head-to-head in the Capitals-Canadiens series, which starts Monday night. They're arguably the two April adds most capable of swinging the result of a series. Leonard, 20, is built for playoff hockey.
Leonard, the eighth pick in the 2023 draft, is ultra competitive and physical. His forechecking energy will create headaches for defensemen on retrievals.
The former Boston College star's regular-season stat line (one empty-net goal and no assists in nine games) undersells his relatively smooth transition to the NHL and well-rounded skill set. He's looked comfortable in the heat of action and sits second on Washington in shots on goal (16) and shot attempts (29) since April 1. He's also tied for the team lead with five penalties drawn.
Leonard has been lining up at right wing alongside center Lars Eller and Andrew Mangiapane. In 40 five-on-five minutes together, the trio has been outscored 2-0 but owns 57% of the shot attempts and 62% of the expected goals. The line, and Leonard specifically, are due. - John Matisz
Vegas still has 'misfit' element
The Golden Knights have become known as big-game hunters, routinely making splashy trades or free-agent signings to bolster their roster. But their ability to pluck players off the scrap heap and turn them into meaningful contributors is a major reason for the organization's success. Brett Howden is one of the latest examples.
Acquired for a fourth-round pick in 2021, Howden exploded for a career-high 23 goals this season - not bad for a player counting for $1.9 million against the cap. Howden scored a pair of goals, including the game-winner, Sunday in Vegas' 4-2 victory over the Wild in Game 1.
He's one of several castoffs who've rehabilitated their careers in Vegas following the original "Golden Misfits" of 2017-18. Think of Adin Hill (acquired for a fourth-rounder in 2022), Nicolas Roy (acquired for Erik Haula in 2019), or the now-departed Chandler Stephenson (acquired for a fifth-rounder in 2019). The Golden Knights' pro scouting and player development departments deserve a lot of credit. - Josh Wegman
Marner matches prior postseason total
Mitch Marner recorded three points (a goal and two assists) Sunday in the Maple Leafs' Game 1 drubbing of the Senators. That ties his total from the entire 2024 playoffs, when the Bruins ousted the Maple Leafs in seven games. In his last playoff series before that, Marner notched just three points in a five-game series loss to the Florida Panthers in 2023.
The strong start is definitely encouraging for Marner, who's become a whipping boy of sorts in Toronto for his inability to step up in big moments. But he still needs to finish strong. In 12 games during Marner's playoff career where the Maple Leafs have had a chance to eliminate opponents, he's managed zero goals and four assists. - Josh Wegman
Heavy hitters
Tim Stutzle raised eyebrows by throwing a game-high nine hits in the lopsided Battle of Ontario opener. The Senators are a physical team: Their collective hit count (25.7 per night in the regular season) ranked fourth league-wide. Stutzle tied Dylan Cozens in his Sens debut March 8 for the most hits in one game by an Ottawa player.
The notion that being physical distracts Stutzle from his main focus - setting up goals - overlooks that it's part of his game. His 130 hits this season were a career high. He joined Filip Forsberg and Sam Reinhart as the only 75-point forwards with more than 100 hits, per Stathead. No top center inflicted more punishment.
Stutzle was overzealous and didn't hold back enough when he boarded Chris Tanev to trigger the Maple Leafs' power-play onslaught. But at five-on-five, he combined with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux to menace Toronto's top line and defense pair (18-3 edge in shot attempts and 65.1% expected goals percentage, per Natural Stat Trick). What Stutzle's trio needs to do differently in Game 2 is finish those chances.
Pent-up energy and the desire to leave a mark prompts hitters to explode out of the gate in the playoffs. Wild forwards Marcus Foligno (11 hits) and Yakov Trenin (eight) bashed the Golden Knights on the opening weekend. Blues captain Brayden Schenn had seven hits through one period and totaled nine in Game 1 against the Jets.
For reference, Kiefer Sherwood's 12 hits for the Canucks on Oct. 22 and March 22 were the most by one player in a single game this season.
Over the past 20 postseasons, 17 players rattled the glass with a dozen or more hits in one game. The runaway playoff record is Brenden Morrow's 19 hits for the 2008 Stars in their second-round series clincher against the Sharks. Morrow skated for 51 minutes and redirected the winning goal in the fourth overtime. - Nick Faris
Sunday, April 20
Ullmark not Sens' biggest issue
The Senators looked overmatched and overwhelmed in Game 1 against the Maple Leafs. It was glaringly obvious from puck drop which team was in the playoffs for a ninth straight season and which hadn't been in the dance in eight years. It was also obvious which team boasted more talent top to bottom.
Goalie Linus Ullmark, one of Ottawa's leaders and an all-around X-factor in this series, didn't meet the moment. He allowed six goals on just 24 shots and finished with a goals saved above expected of minus-1.99, according to Evolving Hockey. (For context, Toronto's Anthony Stolarz was plus-1.46.)
That said, there's no denying Ullmark was consistently left out to dry.
The Sens let Oliver Ekman-Larsson waltz right down main street on the 1-0 goal. All three Leafs power-play goals were low-percentage save attempts for a goalie. Mitch Marner scored on a breakaway. Even the worst goal Ullmark allowed - Morgan Rielly's point shot to bring the score to 5-2 - was redirected off teammate Matthew Highmore's glove.
Part of the goalie role is bailing skaters out, so, yes, Ullmark needs to be better in Tuesday's Game 2. But he isn't the Sens' only problem right now. - John Matisz
Tavares, Leafs' PP wildly efficient
A popular narrative coming into the Battle of Ontario revolved around underdog Ottawa needing to drag Toronto into the fight to pull off an upset.
Technically, the Senators accomplished the first part of the equation in Game 1. Ottawa initiated the majority of physical confrontations (and generally kept up with the Leafs during five-on-five action) all night. One problem: The overly aggressive style too often led to a penalty.
A second problem: The Leafs' five-forward power play decided to go nuclear, scoring three times in 7:33 of PP time. Each goal sequence began with an offensive-zone faceoff win by John Tavares. The former Leafs captain's 58.3% faceoff win rate ranked fifth in the NHL in the regular season. The guy he beat in the circle on all three goals was Claude Giroux, the league leader at 61.5%.
The first PP goal, which made it 3-1 Toronto, featured Tavares tipping a William Nylander shot-pass, picking up his own rebound, and quickly depositing the puck into the net. Just nine seconds between faceoff and goal.
The second marker, which made it 4-1, was even quicker - three seconds for Nylander to move off the wall, grab the puck, and go short-side from the slot.
The third took a whopping eight seconds. Mitch Marner fired a shot from the point, Auston Matthews tried and failed to bang in a rebound, and crease-crashing Matthew Knies cleaned up the garbage. Goal 6 in a 6-2 Leafs victory.
The Leafs scored once on 21 power-play opportunities against Boston in last year's first round. They've tripled their output on the man advantage in one game against Ottawa and looked unstoppable in the process. - John Matisz
Canes tilt the ice
Out of affection or ridicule, the Hurricanes are sometimes called the "Corsi Canes" for their ability to rack up offensive-zone time and fire pucks on net without always burying them. Their NHL ranks in shot attempts (first by a mile), share of shot attempts (distant first), and share of dangerous scoring chances (sixth) outpaced the team's 8.7% shooting percentage at five-on-five (19th), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Game 1 against New Jersey, a 4-1 Carolina win, explained the strategy's appeal. Deadline pickup Logan Stankoven struck twice as the Canes overwhelmed the visiting Devils by relentlessly pelting Jakob Markstrom. Shots on target favored the Hurricanes 45-24. Attempts were 78-59. The Devils need smoother breakouts, more possession, more impact from their third-ranked power play and a resilient response from a banged-up blue line that finished the game without Brenden Dillon. - Nick Faris
Leafs-Senators forward combos
Max Domi enters his first Battle of Ontario as the Maple Leafs' second-line left-winger. He beat out such candidates as Bobby McMann, the younger, larger, purer finisher who bagged 20 goals to Domi's eight and will be asked to juice a defensively inclined bottom six. Toronto iced Domi with William Nylander and John Tavares for 58 minutes at five-on-five this season. They outscored opponents 3-0 together despite being caved in with a 26.5% expected goals percentage, per Natural Stat Trick.
Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux flank Tim Stutzle on the Senators' top line. That trio won't be set in stone. Though he produced just five points in 20 games, deadline acquisition Fabian Zetterlund created chances and havoc as Stutzle's occasional linemate. He could be elevated from the fourth line to provide speed and dogged forechecking, while Giroux will take big faceoffs and play on special teams even if his minutes diminish at even strength. - Nick Faris
Compelling goalie duels
Shooters upstaged Jordan Binnington and Connor Hellebuyck in the Blues-Jets series opener. The goalies' combined save percentage in Winnipeg's 5-3 win was .833. Hellebuyck drew scrutiny for being deep in the blue paint - his preferred positioning to maximize lateral movement - which left room for Jordan Kyrou, Oskar Sundqvist, and Robert Thomas to beat him over the shoulder with absolute rips.
Game 1 starkly contrasted their clash in the tight 4 Nations Face-Off final when Hellebuyck was characteristically solid, and the victorious Binnington stood on his head. Whoever steals a game in the coming days will shorten or prolong this series. Binnington faces slightly more pressure to deliver.
Other interesting goalie battles get underway soon.
Anthony Stolarz vs. Linus Ullmark: Ottawa's masked man, Ullmark, is aiming to improve his spotty playoff record (.887 save percentage, six losses in nine starts). Toronto's go-to guy, Stolarz, boasts 35 minutes of career postseason experience and received a 2024 Stanley Cup ring for his modest effort. Stolarz made 38 stops, while Ullmark produced a 27-save shutout in their first of two head-to-head matchups this season.
Adin Hill vs. Filip Gustavsson: Hill was an overlooked fourth-stringer who climbed the depth chart due to injuries and proceeded to backstop the Golden Knights to their 2023 championship breakthrough. Gustavsson sparkled with five shutouts and a .914 save rate in 2024-25, his first season as the Wild's clear-cut, undisputed starter. Vegas has a deep, vastly superior forward corps that Gustavsson needs to stifle.
Logan Thompson vs. Sam Montembeault: Dominant for much of the campaign, Thompson cooled significantly in the Capitals' crease (.877 SV% since Feb. 1) right after he signed a lucrative extension and missed the last few weeks with an upper-body injury. Montembeault's .902 denial rate looks pretty good given that Montreal's leaky defense allowed the third-most dangerous chances (13 per game) around the NHL, per Natural Stat Trick.
Darcy Kuemper vs. Stuart Skinner: By the numbers, this is a glaring mismatch. Kuemper's been excellent (.922 SV%, ranked fourth in Evolving-Hockey's goals saved above expected metric) for the defensive juggernaut Kings. Only one playoff goalie - Montembeault - endured more "really bad starts" (SV% below .850) than Skinner, who had 12 in 50 starts for the Oilers. That said, Skinner's already knocked off Los Angeles in two postseasons.
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Sergei Bobrovsky: Early Battles of Florida and showdowns between these Russian countrymen favored Vasilevskiy. The Lightning legend rocked a .950 cumulative save percentage when his club ousted the Panthers in 2021 and 2022. Bobrovsky put up some stinkers during Florida's '24 Cup run but was nearly unbeatable in elimination games against Tampa Bay and other vanquished opponents. - Nick Faris
Colorado loves blowouts
No team blitzes a talented playoff opponent with the same pitiless frequency as the Colorado Avalanche. Game 1 against the Dallas Stars was the latest example.
The Stars killed an early 5-on-3, held Colorado scoreless for almost 30 minutes, pulled within a goal in the third period, and genuinely liked their effort. But they lost 5-1 and got scored on via an inadvertent kick, a deflected knuckler, a pinching defenseman's tip-in, and a nifty passing sequence immediately following an empty-netter. Nathan MacKinnon recorded his 13th career three-point playoff game (and first since May 2022).
Since starting its playoff streak in 2018, Colorado has paced the NHL in convincing wins by at least three goals (26 over 11 different postseason opponents), per Stathead. Saturday's blowout - the Avalanche's 14th win by four or more in the span - was one of their most efficient offensive performances, with five goals on a mere 24 shots.
Their largest playoff triumph, a 7-0 spanking of the dynastic Tampa Bay Lightning, came in Game 2 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Mikko Rantanen dished three primary assists for the Avs on that electric night in Denver. It must have been disorienting for Rantanen, the Stars' huge trade acquisition, to be on the other side of the bombardment. - Nick Faris
Squads on a roll
The NHL's best teams since the 4 Nations Face-Off break were the St. Louis Blues (.788 points percentage), Toronto Maple Leafs (.741), and Vegas Golden Knights (.731). The rebuilding Montreal Canadiens (.692) snuck into the playoffs ahead of schedule by catching fire over the past two months.
The league's top scorer in the span was Blues playmaker Robert Thomas (eight goals, 40 points in 26 games). The individual tear that fueled the Habs came courtesy of Nick Suzuki (15 goals, 37 points). Their heroic efforts turned around a pair of scuffling teams that paused for the 4 Nations with identical 25-26-5 records. On a personal level, these 25-year-old top centers are crushing their auditions for Canada's 2026 Olympic lineup.
As the eighth seed in each conference, St. Louis and Montreal hope their recent results lead to deep, stirring runs. The Blues startled the Winnipeg Jets' penalty kill in Saturday's playoff opener with symmetrical snipes from Thomas and Jordan Kyrou to the top corners. But they stopped generating offense, fizzled in the third period, and fell behind in the series.
Some scorching squads win multiple rounds on the strength of the momentum they build in March and April. The 2024 New York Rangers and Dallas Stars, the '23 Stars and Golden Knights, and the '22 Colorado Avalanche all tallied points percentages above .700 from Feb. 22 onward. Those Rangers and Stars teams were conference finalists. Vegas and Colorado hoisted the Cup.
There are limits to a great finish's predictive power. The hottest team in each of the past three stretch runs lost as an underdog in Round 1 (2024 Nashville Predators), suffered a historic first-round upset ('23 Boston Bruins), and was humbled and swept in the Battle of Florida ('22 Panthers). Can Thomas help St. Louis buck the trend? - Nick Faris
International standouts
The other big hockey thing happening Sunday is the final of the IIHF Women's World Championship in Czechia. Canada - the defending champion - faces the archrival United States for gold for the 23rd time in 24 editions of the tournament.
NHL fans went wild in February for the ferocious 4 Nations Face-Off. The best-on-best showcase in Montreal and Boston, where Canada clinched gold in overtime, springboarded some players to newfound prominence.
Ottawa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk and young No. 1 defenseman Jake Sanderson scored for the U.S. in the tense, gripping final. Tkachuk, an animal with his blend of physicality and finishing (three goals at the tournament), is one of a few breakout stars around the league seeking a taste of playoff glory. He's about to debut in the postseason after 512 NHL games, exactly as many as Thomas Chabot logged during Ottawa's extensive drought.
Many of the 4 Nations' top scorers were established superstars such as Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jack Eichel. Matt Boldy, who supported the American big guns with a tipped goal and two assists, is an example of a young player who could ride that momentum to greater heights. His sophomore Minnesota Wild teammate Brock Faber played shutdown defense at the event.
Jake Guentzel - a point-per-game forward at the 4 Nations and throughout a decorated playoff career - has a chance to tilt the Battle of Florida as a newcomer to the Tampa Bay Lightning. And the talented but maligned Mitch Marner, who set up McDavid's triumphant snipe in Boston, will need to be clutch again for the Toronto Maple Leafs to finally win an elimination game. - Nick Faris
This Gretzky record is safe
The defining storyline of the regular season was Alex Ovechkin's pursuit of the all-time goals record held for decades by Wayne Gretzky. The chase spellbound viewers, and Ovi rewrote history with his 895th career snipe at the beginning of April against the New York Islanders.
Fans might be less aware of Ovechkin's standing on the playoff career leaderboard. He has 72 goals in 151 games over 15 postseason appearances with the Washington Capitals. Ovechkin is dominant and durable, but he won't threaten Gretzky's benchmark of 122 goals in 208 playoff outings.
Ovechkin is tied for 15th in career playoff tallies. He assumed the lead among active players when Joe Pavelski (74 goals) retired last summer. With a big individual showing over a deep Capitals run, The Great 8 could become the 10th NHL star to reach 80 goals.
Generational icons headline the current top 10, shown below. The list features postseason mainstays like Glenn Anderson and Claude Lemieux, whose longevity and clutch efforts - both bagged at least 17 game-winners in the playoffs, not far back of Gretzky's 24 - helped them climb the ranks.
Wayne Gretzky (122 goals), Mark Messier (109), Jari Kurri (106), Brett Hull (103), Glenn Anderson (93), Mike Bossy (85), Joe Sakic (84), Maurice Richard (82), Claude Lemieux (80), Jean Beliveau (79)
The active leaders as of Sunday are:
Alex Ovechkin (72), Sidney Crosby (71), Evgeni Malkin (67), Brad Marchand (56), Corey Perry (54), Patrick Kane (53), Nikita Kucherov (53), Ondrej Palat (51), Steven Stamkos (50), Vladimir Tarasenko (49)
Washington's first-round clash with the Montreal Canadiens starts Monday at 7 p.m. ET. - Nick Faris