Houston Open betting preview: Scottie, Rory, or the field?

Viktor Hovland's win at the Valspar Championship capped a fantastic Florida swing. Now the PGA TOUR heads to Texas for a two-week stretch leading into the Masters, starting with the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

The 155-man field, headlined by Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, takes on one of Tom Doak's latest renovations. Memorial Park has few bunkers and shares some features with Augusta National, especially around the greens, making it a perfect tune-up venue for golfers vying for the green jacket.

The course

• 7,475 yards, par 70
• John Bredemus design, renovated by Tom Doak in 2019
• Poa-grass greens
• Short rough makes it a bomber's paradise
• Water in play on just four holes and only 21 bunkers
• Three par 5s, the shortest being 587 yards

Previous winners

2024: Stephen Jaeger (-12)
2023: No tournament
2022: Tony Finau (-16)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

The favorites

The field is extremely top-heavy, with Scheffler and McIlroy atop the oddsboard and shorter than +1000.

This duo eats up roughly a third of the field's win probability, forcing you to decide between one of the two best players in the world or a handful of the other contestants.

Scheffler hasn't regained his 2024 form, but he's close. His worst finish on the season was a T25 at the Phoenix Open, and he's gained at least six strokes tee-to-green in four of five tournaments played. He could easily win this tournament by multiple strokes, but it's tough to justify backing him at odds shorter than +400 when we still haven't seen him put it all together for 72 holes.

McIlroy is coming off his Players Championship victory, marking the first time in his career he's collected two PGA TOUR wins before the Masters. This raises the concern that McIlroy may only be playing the Houston Open to get competitive reps on a course that shares similarities to Augusta. If he's playing in Texas but envisioning Georgia for some of his shots, he can't be backed at such short odds.

The next tier

Picks

Min Woo Lee - To win (+3500)

Min Woo Lee has never played Memorial Park, but he's a fantastic course fit on paper. Lee is the third-longest player on TOUR, has an elite short game, and can get extremely hot with his putter. If all three of those assets click for him, he's in for a strong week.

The Aussie has been decently successful at the Masters as well, with two top-25 finishes in three starts. Australians tend to be better suited to greens surrounded by short grass, as is the case at Memorial Park, rather than heavy rough. Lee's also in form, having played in the final pairing going into Round 3 at the Players Championship two weeks ago.

Maverick McNealy - To win (+5500)

Maverick McNealy has competed at Memorial Park three times with no finish worse than his T27 from last year, and those results came before he added distance off the tee. McNealy's length will increase his advantage at this venue because he's so good on and around the greens.

He's coming off two missed cuts in Florida, but before that, he finished second at the Genesis Invitational and T9 at the Phoenix Open. This is the perfect buy-low spot on a player who was much higher on stronger oddsboards earlier this season.

Sahith Theegala - To win (+5500)

Sahith Theegala has a similar game to McNealy; he's long enough off the tee but can separate himself from the field thanks to his short game and putting.

Theegala has played solidly all season but lacks a high finish. However, none of the venues the PGA TOUR has visited so far fit Theegala's game as well as Memorial Park. He's played the Houston Open three times and finished inside the top 30 in his last two appearances.

Getting Theegala at +5500 is another buy-low opportunity on someone with the upside to compete against the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy on Sunday.

Davis Riley - To win (+8000), top 20 (+400)

Davis Riley has two top-10s in his last three starts, including a T7 last week where he gained 6.7 strokes on approach shots and 6.2 shots around the green to lead the field in strokes gained: tee to green.

Riley has played Memorial Park three years in a row, with no finish worse than T29. He came T14 in 2024. At the time, that was his best PGA TOUR finish in over a year, and it helped propel him to victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge two months later.