BMW Championship betting preview: 2 picks to outduel Scheffler

The FedEx Cup Playoffs head to Owings Mills, Maryland - a suburb outside Baltimore - this week for the BMW Championship. A field of 49 players will take on Caves Valley Golf Club for the postseason's second leg, and they'll attempt to bring the same drama that Justin Rose and J.J. Spaun did in a thrilling three-hole playoff last week in Memphis.

Only the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings advanced to the BMW Championship. Rory McIlroy is in the field after skipping the playoff opener, but Sepp Straka has already withdrawn, bringing the field down to 49 players.

The course

Caves Valley is the 7,601-yard, par-70 venue that hosted the 2021 BMW Championship, which Patrick Cantlay won. The course has undergone some major changes since then, which should create a much tougher test.

First, the par was changed from 72 to 70, which will negatively impact scores. The course's length also grew by nearly 500 yards, and many of the greens were recontoured while shifting them closer to hazard areas, according to Betsperts' Ron Klos.

It was somewhat of a putting contest in 2021: No one inside the top 10 lost strokes putting, and only one gained fewer than three shots on the greens. Putting will be important again this week, but the changes mean ball-striking will be, too. This year, the fairways were narrowed, placing a greater emphasis on elite driving ability.

Past champions

2024: Keegan Bradley (-12)
2023: Viktor Hovland (+17)
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14)
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27, at Caves Valley)
2020: Jon Rahm (-4)
2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20)

The favorites

⛳️ Check out the odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the two golfers priced below +1000 on ESPN BET and theScore Bet.

Scheffler could have won last week, finishing one shot out of the playoff. He lost strokes around the green and wasn't overly sharp (by his standards) with his iron play. Additionally, he'll have a fill-in caddie with Ted Scott tending to a personal matter.

It would be shocking to see Scheffler not contend this week, but this tournament could turn into a putting contest, which isn't always the best spot to target Scheffler. Plus, the fill-in caddie situation is a slight concern.

Meanwhile, Caves Valley is a perfect fit for McIlroy. He hasn't been driving it great recently, but his length should still give him an edge over the field. He's also putted brilliantly in his last three starts, gaining at least 4.8 strokes putting in each of his previous three tournaments.

The week of rest McIlroy enjoyed while the rest of his competitors spent four days battling the brutal Memphis heat may benefit the Irishman. However, +750 is a tad short on a player who hasn't won, or hasn't even played his best, since April.

The next tier

⛳️ Check out the odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Xander Schauffele opens the next tier, but he isn't playing well enough to consider backing at +1800. With that said, Schauffele needs a big week at Caves Valley to qualify for East Lake, the final stop of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Tommy Fleetwood is coming off another crushing loss in search of his first PGA TOUR win. It took him a couple of tournaments to rebound after his devastating loss at the Travelers Championship, so he likely won't be back in contention so soon after an emotionally draining tournament.

Picks

Bet: Cameron Young to win (+2500)

We took Young last week, and he pulled off a backdoor top-five result. He made a charge up the leaderboard on Sunday to secure another top-tier finish and give us the confidence required to back him another week.

Young led the field in strokes gained: off the tee in Memphis, and lost over three strokes around the green. He's been exceptional off the tee in his last two starts, and if that continues at Caves Valley, he'll be in a great spot to contend again.

His solid putting was instrumental in his Wyndham Championship win two starts ago. As a New York native, he'll be familiar with the Northeast agronomy at Caves Valley and should be comfortable with the flatstick in his hands. Not many players in the field are in as good form as Young, and his +2500 odds mean he's not an overpay.

Bet: Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+4000)

Fitzpatrick has had one below-average week in over a month, and you have the opportunity to buy low as a result. The Englishman lost 5.1 strokes off the tee last week, which can happen at a course with a lot of water, and finished T32 in Memphis to end his four-tournament top-10 streak.

This is a perfect chance to back Fitzpatrick at inflated odds while he's playing great. He ranks behind only Scheffler in strokes gained: total over the past 24 rounds.

While he's not known to be a long hitter, Fitzpatrick plays long courses well. He placed T8 at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, is a U.S. Open winner, and has high finishes at Bay Hill and Muirfield Village. Fitzpatrick could arguably be priced alongside Young at +2500, so take the +4000 and run.

Ryder Cup matchups

Ryder Cup teams will be selected following the TOUR Championship, making this week extremely important for players on the bubble or in the mix to be a captain's pick. There are a handful of matchups available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet, focusing on these players more than just a tournament trophy at stake.

Bet: Andrew Novak (-115) over Brian Harman

This course is simply too long for Harman. He rarely gains strokes off the tee, and when he does, it's on shorter courses where it's important to hit the fairway. Novak finished T6 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and should be able to outperform Harman at a big venue.

Bet: Cameron Young (-105) over Patrick Cantlay

We've laid out our case for Young, so taking him as an underdog against Cantlay is a no-brainer. Yes, Cantlay won this tournament in 2021, but the course has changed, and he's not playing nearly as well as he was then.

Bet: Sam Burns (-110) over Maverick McNealy

Burns fits this course much better than McNealy and is an underdog in this matchup. Neither has done anything great over the past month, but Burns did show flashes in June with high finishes at the Canadian Open and U.S. Open.

Bet: Ben Griffin (-115) over Collin Morikawa

Griffin is in much better form than Morikawa, with high finishes at both the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship. He's placed inside the top 15 in eight of his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, Morikawa has just one top-10 result since the beginning of April.