Rory McIlroy entered the third round of the Masters with a six-shot advantage, the largest in tournament history. We followed along with live updates and analysis of Round 3 at Augusta National.
The stage is set
For those who were worried the Masters could be an anticlimactic runaway victory for McIlroy, worry no more.
While many chasers took advantage of Augusta National's easier scoring conditions, the 36-hole leader shot a 1-over 73 in Round 3 and saw his historic six-shot edge slip away. He now co-leads with Cameron Young, who fired a 7-under 65 on Saturday to sit at 11-under for the tournament.
Before Saturday's round, only five players were within seven shots of McIlroy's lead. With 18 holes left to play, that's ballooned to 18, and nine golfers are within five shots. McIlroy proved that no lead is safe at Augusta, and anyone in the last five pairings Sunday should feel like they have a chance to claim the green jacket.
If you made plans Sunday expecting the golf to be uneventful, cancel them. The final round is shaping up to be an all-time finale.
Young takes clubhouse lead
Cameron Young matched Scottie Scheffler's low round of the day with a 65, good enough to take the clubhouse lead at 11-under par. Young sat atop the leaderboard for a few holes before McIlroy poured in birdies on 14 and 15 to get back to even for the day and 12-under for the tournament.
McIlroy is +140 (41.7% implied probability) on theScore Bet to defend his green jacket, while Young is +225. A tournament that looked like it was firmly in McIlroy's hands has slipped away.
McIlroy makes costly mistake
McIlroy's six-shot lead vanished in 12 holes. The 36-hole pacesetter double-bogeyed the 11th, then made a bogey on No. 12 to fall back to 10-under for the tournament. While Amen Corner was getting the best of McIlroy, Cameron Young recorded a bounce-back birdie on the par-3 16th hole to jump in front at 11-under par.
McIlroy still has two par 5s to play, but some of the negative thoughts that used to haunt him at Augusta National could be creeping into his mind.
Scheffler makes his move
Scottie Scheffler carded a third-round 65 to match the lowest round of the week at Augusta. The world No. 1 was nine shots better than his score from Friday and secured the early clubhouse lead as the final groups began their back nine.
Cameron Young birdied seven of his 14 holes played to sit alone in second at 11-under par, one back of McIlroy, who finished his front nine at even for the day.
The leader hit just three of seven fairways and five of nine greens in regulation. McIlroy made his lone birdie on the third hole, and he failed to convert on either par 5 on the opening side. He'll need to navigate No. 11 - which is playing as the hardest hole on the course - before getting two cracks at par 5s on the back nine.
Fireworks everywhere
Shane Lowry made an ace on the par-3 sixth to get within four shots of McIlroy's lead. The Irishman is 3-under through seven, adding to the long list of players going low on the front nine at Augusta.
Haotong Li eagled No. 8 to move into second alone at 9-under par. Cameron Young shot 4-under on his first nine and is now 12-under since making the turn during Thursday's opening round.
Meanwhile, McIlroy steadied the ship with a birdie on No. 3 to get back the shot he dropped on his first hole.
Augusta's current conditions are the friendliest of the week by far. Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley already posted rounds of 66, and Scottie Scheffler is trending toward an even lower score. That does not bode well for McIlroy's chances of sustaining his big lead. He was the only one to conquer the firm and fast conditions in the tournament's first two rounds, but now, chasers will be able to apply pressure with birdies instead of battling to make pars.
Rory's lead dwindles
McIlroy got off to a nervy start, bogeying the first hole and making par on the par-5 second. He missed his first two fairways of the day as he continues to struggle with his driving accuracy. Meanwhile, Patrick Reed birdied his first three holes, trimming McIlroy's lead to two shots less than 30 minutes into the leader's round.
McIlroy is now only a -140 favorite on theScore Bet to win the green jacket after starting the day at -275, an implied probability change of 15%.
Sam Burns (-8), Cameron Young (-7), and Haotong Li (-7) are all within four of McIlroy, with Scottie Scheffler and Justin Rose five back.
Augusta yielding low scores
Plenty of players are already going low on moving day, including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. The two-time Masters champ made the turn at 5-under for the day, sparked by an eagle on No. 2.
Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Gotterup, Max Homa, Jake Knapp, and Matt Fitzpatrick are all at least 2-under after the opening few holes of their third round. The front nine at Augusta is playing nearly a full stroke under par, with 28 players having completed the outward nine. That should give the McIlroy chasers some hope as they begin their rounds. The final pairing tees off at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Conditions will get tougher as the day goes on, but Brian Harman's signed for a 5-under 67 to post the lowest round so far.
Rory's to lose
McIlroy blitzed the back nine during his second round to create his record-breaking six-shot lead at the halfway point. He birdied six of his final seven holes to pull away from an otherwise crowded leaderboard full of major champions.
The defending champion is -275 on theScore Bet (73.3% implied probability) to become only the fourth player in Masters history to win back-to-back green jackets. He would join Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods if he can pull off the feat. Given how difficult Augusta National has played so far, McIlroy can likely shoot even par over two days and still have a really good chance at victory.
However, keep an eye on McIlroy's driving accuracy. He ranked 90th of 91 players in the field in fairways hit through two rounds. Errant drives haven't slowed him down yet, but if he continues to put himself out of position off the tee, he may wind up scrambling to make par more often than he'd like. If he misses a couple of makeable par putts early and his six-shot lead shrinks, the pressure will intensify.
Who can close the gap?
McIlroy's implied win probability suggests there's roughly a 25% chance that someone catches the 36-hole leader by Sunday's final putt. While it may feel like the tournament is over, that's far from the case. Trouble lurks around many holes at Augusta National, and things could flip for McIlroy with one bad shot.
Patrick Reed and Sam Burns are the two golfers tied six back of McIlroy. Reed has only made three bogeys through 36 holes thanks to his exceptional short game and putting ability. He probably doesn't have enough firepower to track McIlroy down without the leader falling back to the pack, but he can apply continuous pressure simply by hanging around.
Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose could make some noise. Rose gained nearly five strokes on approach shots in Round 2 and was a few short putts away from being four back of McIlroy instead of seven. Fleetwood can get hotter than most with his irons and is fourth in the field in strokes gained: putting. He shot 7-under at Shinnecock Hills under brutal scoring conditions at the 2018 U.S. Open and would likely need to replicate that round to have any chance Sunday.
If McIlroy stumbles out of the gates Saturday and a couple of chasers are under par early, the feeling that this tournament is over will quickly evaporate, and you'll be on the edge of your couch.
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