How Blue Jays must pivot if Soto pursuit fails

The Toronto Blue Jays are attempting to shop in the premium aisle for the second straight offseason.

But the question remains: Will their card be declined?

It's early in the MLB offseason, but it appears the Blue Jays have money to spend, and they're said to be involved in everything. After the 2024 season, it's an encouraging way to enter the winter.

Toronto is reportedly among a handful of teams that met with star outfielder Juan Soto and his agent, Scott Boras. While it's reassuring that the Blue Jays were granted an audience with Soto and Boras, it still feels like a bit of Hail Mary that he'll spurn the New York Yankees or New York Mets to head to Toronto.

If the Blue Jays fail to sign Soto, here's what they should do.

Make Guerrero an offer he can't refuse

You have to believe Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is watching ownership pursue Soto and wondering if the money will be there for him.

Signing Guerrero to a long-term contract should be the club's top priority, regardless of what it plans to do when it comes to Soto. Guerrero stated his desire to spend the rest of his career in Toronto on a number of occasions, and he's coming off his second All-MLB first-team nod. He has a chance to be one of the most prolific hitters in franchise history if he spends the remainder of his career in Toronto.

What message does it send if you're not willing to spend on your homegrown star?

Puzzlingly, it seems like the front office is either playing its cards close to the vest or doesn't completely believe that Guerrero is one of MLB's elite offensive talents. Following the 2024 season, Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro said Guerrero had "an opportunity to be a generational player." Even if Shapiro doesn't believe Guerrero's ceiling is that high, it was a bizarre way of saying so.

Guerrero has one year of team control remaining before free agency, and there's no indication that the two sides are close to reaching a long-term deal. With Guerrero's running mate, Bo Bichette, also set to reach free agency at the conclusion of 2025, the Blue Jays are faced with the realistic scenario of both homegrown stars leaving for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick.

That simply can't happen. There's no way of selling that to the fans.

Guerrero has the talent to lead the club for at least the next decade. The Blue Jays must find a way to keep him, and if they can do so, it will be a good way to attract other free agents to Toronto.

Of course, Guerrero will likely be the top free-agent position player next winter, so it will take an enormous offer to prevent him from testing the market.

Try to sign Santander, Adames

It's unclear if the front office will receive the green light from ownership to spend aggressively if the Jays can't land Soto. After the non-tender deadline, the team currently sits roughly $40 million under the first luxury-tax threshold. If Toronto gets approval to spend, targeting former Baltimore Orioles slugger Anthony Santander and former Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames would make a great deal of sense. Both players are attached to draft-pick compensation but would give the team an immediate boost. The Blue Jays - with their poor ability to draft and develop - should not be dissuaded from signing players who rejected qualifying offers.

Santander is coming off a career season in which he hit 44 home runs. The 30-year-old may not be able to replicate that level of power production, but he should be able to comfortably settle in as a 30-plus home-run hitter for the next several years. And while he doesn't provide much defensive value in right field, he can slot in at designated hitter. The bottom line is he would fill a massive need for the Blue Jays' lineup.

Adding Adames, meanwhile, would be interesting on a couple of levels. First, he could initially slot in at third base for as long as Bichette remains on the roster. Adames has the arm strength to handle the longer throw. The Blue Jays could then slide him over to shortstop if Bichette leaves in free agency or if the club trades him at some point. Adames owns a career 109 wRC+ and eclipsed 3.0 fWAR in five of the last six seasons. He'll play the majority of the 2025 season at the age of 29 and should have a handful of strong years left.

Bolster the starting rotation

The rotation looks to be in pretty good shape heading into 2025 with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and 2024 breakout Bowden Francis slotted in. But Bassitt is only under contract for one more season, and Gausman is set to become a free agent following the 2026 season. Berríos also has an opt-out clause to become a free agent at the end of 2026.

Furthermore, injuries to Alek Manoah, Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera, and Landen Maroudis thinned the club's major-league-ready rotation depth. An injury to any key pitcher would put the Blue Jays in a very precarious position in 2025.

There are a handful of impact starting pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason. Left-handers Max Fried and Blake Snell headline the class, as well as former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays routinely add starting pitching through trades and free agency as their homegrown pitchers struggle to develop and graduate to the MLB level. Signing one of Fried, Snell, or Burnes wouldn't be foreign territory for Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins.

A number of quality secondary options are available as well. If the Blue Jays spend big on bats, adding one of Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty, or Nathan Eovaldi, who each come with a little more risk and a lower ceiling, would cost less.

Bring in late-inning relievers

The Blue Jays had one of the worst bullpens in the majors last season, and that depth took another hit Friday when the club non-tendered closer Jordan Romano.

Toronto will have almost no success next season if the bullpen isn't fixed.

Shapiro and Atkins have historically been skittish about committing term to relievers. However, with concerns about their job security beyond 2025, this might be the time to try something different. Adding two of Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes, or Carlos Estévez would go a long way in the late innings.