Home Run Derby betting preview: Trust Wood, Cruz to put on a show
The lineup for the 2025 Home Run Derby was finalized Thursday, featuring eight of baseball's most powerful hitters.
Current home-run leader Cal Raleigh is the +300 favorite on ESPN BET and theScore Bet. The Mariners catcher has belted 38 dingers, three more than his closest challenger, Aaron Judge. While the Yankees star is the American League MVP favorite, Raleigh's got the second-best odds to win the honor amid his breakout season.
Aside from Raleigh, the event doesn't feature many of the league's home-run leaders - Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Eugenio Suárez, and Kyle Schwarber are all absent - but the field is still rich with talent.
James Wood, who is making his first All-Star Game appearance, is eighth in the league in homers with 24. Junior Caminero is right behind Wood with 23.
Ronald Acuña Jr. pulled out of the event and was replaced by fellow Brave, Matt Olson. Oneil Cruz, Brent Rooker, Byron Buxton, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. round out the field for what should be an exciting Monday night event.
Bet James Wood (+375)
Wood was +600 when we originally gave out this bet, but we still like his chances at +375.
He's catapulted his way into MLB's group of elite power hitters in his second season in the majors, giving Nationals fans reason to be excited about the organization's future. The left fielder has blasted 24 homers, 69 RBIs, and 99 hits.
While Woods is 6-foot-7 and tall hitters sometimes struggle at the derby, his exceptional strength and athleticism should allow him to crush balls in a batting practice setting; he hits the ball exceptionally hard and is toward the top of the league in exit velocity. This is Wood's first derby appearance, but that shouldn't prevent him from putting on a show in Atlanta. - Oshtry
Bet Oneil Cruz (+325)
Cruz leads the big leagues in average exit velocity (96.4 mph), ranks second in barrel percentage (22.3%), and is third in the league in hard-hit percentage (58.0%) behind only Ohtani and Schwarber, making the Pirates center fielder one of the derby's most dangerous hitters. If he can pace himself in the early rounds and not gas out by over-swinging, Cruz has a legit shot to run away with this competition. - Patterson
Bet under 238.5 total home runs (+100)
What kind of person bets on the under of a Home Run Derby? Exactly.
No fan wants to see pop-ups and ground balls during the competition, which is why sportsbooks have little incentive to provide an accurate line for the total number of home runs hit. Casual bettors are clicking the over regardless of the total, providing value on the other side.
The rules of the derby changed last year to make the under more appealing. Players no longer have unlimited swings during their turn and will have to do damage on only 40 pitches within a three-minute window. -
In 2023, 341 big flies were hit compared to only 225 in 2024. To expect 14 more home runs this year from a group that doesn't have Home Run Derby experience is a big ask. Seven of the eight participants are making their derby debuts, and nerves will certainly be a factor in the first round. - Patterson
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