Wemby's injury complicated the DPOY race. Who should win now?
When the Spurs announced that Victor Wembanyama would miss the rest of the season with a blood clot in his shoulder, he was -2000 to win Defensive Player of the Year. The French phenom was the largest favorite among all award categories, averaging nearly four blocks per game. Those surefire tickets can be tossed in the trash after Wembanyama's health scare ended his season at 46 games played - 19 short of the minimum-game requirement to be eligible for awards.
Before being shut down, Wemby garnered 36% of bets and 32% of the money wagered on the market. Evan Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Lu Dort were the next most-bet players, although none received over 11% of the market share.
Oddsmakers reacted quickly, resetting the oddsboard for a wide-open race. Here's where it stands now:
Defensive Player of the Year odds
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Evan Mobley | -250 |
Dyson Daniels | +450 |
Jaren Jackson Jr. | +900 |
Lu Dort | +1100 |
Draymond Green | +1800 |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +5000 |
Jalen Williams | +7500 |
No written rule declares the Defensive Player of the Year must be a big man, but voters have collectively decided the award favors bigs. Marcus Smart is the only guard to win it this century, and 10 of the last 15 winners were centers.
Yes, a defensive anchor who can protect the rim, thrive in weak-side rotations, excel at multiple pick-and-roll coverages, and guard on the perimeter is essential for an elite defense. However, true perimeter defenders also deserve consideration unless there's a big man who cuts the floor in half and terrorizes drivers like Wembanyama does.
Mobley is the favorite to win with roughly a month remaining in the regular season. He's showcased versatility for the NBA's seventh-best defense, he ranks in the top 10 in blocks, and he chases guards on the perimeter. The Cavaliers allow four fewer points per 100 possessions when Mobley is on the floor than when he's on the bench.
Jackson, who's sixth in blocks, makes a similar impact for the Grizzlies. Although Memphis doesn't have a top-10 defense, it holds a 107.3 defensive rating when Jackson is on the floor, which would be second in the NBA behind the Thunder.
But why should a big man be guaranteed the award? The NBA's best players - other than Nikola Jokic - are wings and guards, and perimeter defenders are tasked with guarding them. Sure, they might often be relieved in a switch-heavy scheme, but the NBA is as talented as ever. Offensive liabilities are rarely on the floor, and skill and shotmaking are at all-time highs, which makes defense more challenging than ever.
Dyson Daniels has emerged as one of the NBA's most impressive individual defenders, mauling ball-handlers beyond the arc and navigating screens every possession like he's fighting for a roster spot in a Summer League game. The Australian's nickname, "The Great Barrier Thief," comes from his uncanny ability to force turnovers. He averages three steals per game and has totaled a league-leading 184 on the season - 70 more than the second-highest player. Given his nightly assignments on the league's brightest stars, Daniels is a worthy recipient.
However, an even more deserving defender isn't receiving proper respect on the oddsboard. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP candidacy is supported by the fact that he's the best player on the best team. Let's apply that same logic to Defensive Player of the Year: Dort is the best defender on the league's best defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams also deserve credit for their defensive prowess and two-way ability, which is why they're featured on the oddsboard. The Thunder's defense has so much depth that when a player sits, it doesn't impact the group's defensive dominance. Dort isn't putting up the steal and block metrics that many of his counterparts do, but his on-ball presence and cerebral weak-side rotations are big reasons why the Thunder force the most turnovers in the league.
There's no better evidence that he's Oklahoma City's best defender than his defensive assignments. He (almost) always guards the opposing team's best player, whether it's Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards, or Luka Doncic.
In four matchups against Edwards this season, Dort held him to 37% shooting from the field and 27% from three as his primary defender, according to NBA Stats. He also forced five turnovers. The six-year vet contained Tatum to 30% shooting from the field and 12% from three as his primary defender in two contests. Generally, players shoot under 40% from the floor when guarded by Dort, per Synergy.
The Thunder guard is built like a linebacker with brute physicality, quick feet, and strong hands. Dribble-heavy guards and post players struggle to move Dort off his spot or break shoulders. He's nearly impossible to screen and puts his matchup in a torture chamber - hence his nickname, "Dorture Chamber."
Somehow, Dort has never earned an NBA All-Defensive team nod. That will surely change this year. Beyond that, voters should recognize his impact on the league's best defense and name him Defensive Player of the Year.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.