NBA awards watch: Is SGA a lock to win MVP again?

Welcome to our monthly look at the top contenders for the NBA's various individual awards as the league's 65-game requirement for end-of-season honors comes into focus.

Rookie of the Year

Edgecombe ended up in the perfect spot on a competitive roster playing with All-Stars. Top picks are typically given too much responsibility on losing squads, but that wouldn't suit Edgecombe's game. The Sixers guard is a weapon attacking closeouts and playing off others. His defense and athleticism were strengths in college, but his shooting is better than expected. Averaging 15.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, Edgecombe would win Rookie of the Year if not for a historically strong draft class.

Odds: +15000

Knueppel isn't just leading rookies in threes made; he's outpacing the entire NBA by a healthy margin. He already broke the rookie record for threes, and he'll likely become the first rookie ever to lead the NBA in that category. Knueppel's 19.3 points per game on 44% 3-point shooting helped the surging Hornets escape the doldrums of the lottery and transform into a team that owns the league's best net rating since Jan. 1.

Odds: -240

Although Flagg will finish with fewer games played than Knueppel, he has clearly been the league's top rookie. Flagg made history by becoming the youngest player to score 40 points in an NBA game. He also leads all rookies with 20.2 points per contest, and he's the only first-year player averaging at least 20 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Flagg would be the clear-cut winner if his former Duke teammate weren't also producing historic rookie outputs.

Odds: +170

Defensive Player of the Year

Holmgren's rim protection for the NBA's best defense has him in contention for the honor. His instincts discourage teams from scoring at the rim, and he has the lateral mobility to contain smaller guards. Opponents score just 0.93 points per shot at the rim against Holmgren - an excellent rank on Synergy. The Thunder big also ranks second in defensive win shares and fifth in block percentage.

Odds: +1000

You don't hear about it much because he's already won four Defensive Player of the Year awards, but Gobert is quietly having one of the best defensive seasons of his career. The Wolves' defense is allowing eight fewer points per 100 possessions when Gobert's on the floor. Additionally, they rank second in the NBA in defense when he's on the court and 24th when he's off. Gobert has also become a more reliable perimeter defender when forced to play away from the rim. If Victor Wembanyama doesn't qualify, Gobert should earn his record-setting fifth Defensive Player of the Year honor.

Odds: +3000

As long as Wembanyama plays four more games, he should win this award unanimously. The NBA has never seen a defender change the geometry of the court for opposing offenses quite like the French phenom. Attacking guards have taken more U-turns than a GPS-less driver, sensing Wemby rotating over to protect the rim. He leads the NBA in blocks and defensive win shares for the league's third-best defense.

Odds: -1200

Most Improved Player

The Hawks have won 10 straight, inching their way up the standings. Johnson has been the catalyst behind Atlanta's recent surge, averaging a career-high in points (23), rebounds (10.4), and assists (8.1). The on-ball creation and playmaking version of Johnson appeared in flashes last season, but an injury cut his 2024-25 campaign short after 36 games. This is the first full season he has showcased his All-Star abilities.

Odds: +300

Duren increased his scoring average from 11.8 last season to 19, showcasing how much he's added to the Pistons' offensive arsenal. Once limited as a rim-running center who could only operate around the basket, Duren has transformed his game and bumped his drives from 1.9 per contest in 2024-25 to 3.6 this campaign. Additionally, he's improved his touch, ball-handling, and playmaking out of the short roll as a pick-and-roll partner to Cade Cunningham. Duren is as big a reason as any for Detroit's leap from the sixth to the East's top seed.

Odds: -170

Avdija will become ineligible to win the award if he misses two more games, which explains why he's not the bookmakers' favorite. Otherwise, he'd be the undisputed winner, upping his points per game from 16.9 to 24 while nearly doubling his assists. Avdija's shooting and playmaking have also improved drastically, and he continues to be one of the league's best downhill drivers, totaling the league's third-most free-throw attempts. The Blazers' All-Star is one of three players in the league averaging at least 24 points, six assists, and six rebounds - the others being Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic.

Odds: +450

Sixth Man of the Year

Rockets observers might argue that Sheppard should be a full-time starter for a unit that constantly requires an offensive burst in the absence of a traditional point guard. Still, Ime Udoka's reluctance to place him in the starting lineup leaves him eligible for Sixth Man. Sheppard is averaging 13.4 points on 39% 3-point shooting and serves as an on-ball creator and an off-ball floor spacer.

Odds: +360

Reid's 13.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game rank fourth and third, respectively, among the Timberwolves. The 2024 Sixth Man of the Year winner's versatility allows him to space the floor when playing alongside Gobert and anchor the center spot when the Frenchman sits. With Minnesota sacrificing depth over the last couple of seasons, Reid's impact is more important than ever for a playoff run.

Odds: +190

It's typically harder for non-shooters to find driving lanes based on how defenders guard, but Jaquez is the exception. His downhill driving ability is one of Miami's weapons in a fast-paced, drive-and-kick offense. Despite shooting a career-worst 28% from three, Jaquez is averaging 15.1 points on 50% shooting from the field, guiding the league's fourth-highest scoring bench.

Odds: +350

Most Valuable Player

Doncic is averaging a league-leading 32.9 points and is in the midst of his best month yet, highlighted by a 51-point outing against the Bulls. Although the Lakers have dealt with an array of injuries, he's carried the club to six straight wins and the 3-seed. Doncic is already one of the greatest offensive engines ever and can reach any spot on the floor effortlessly, but he's also drilling over 39% of his threes since the new year. Wembanyama deserves credit for his undeniable impact on the league's second-best team, but Doncic has faced the tougher challenge by helping the Lakers potentially reach 50 wins. And he's actually beginning to show some defensive effort.

Odds: +8000

Although the Nuggets have slipped since Jokic returned from injury, his production and impact haven't wavered. He's on pace to become the first player in NBA history to lead the league in both assists and rebounds and is set to become the second player to average a triple-double over a full season multiple times. In 2025-26, Jokic is averaging 28.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.6 assists while continuing to lead the league in most advanced metrics, including true shooting percentage, PIE, VOR, and Box Plus/Minus.

Odds: +2000

Gilgeous-Alexander's go-ahead step-back three to clinch a win over the Nuggets last week put a bow on the MVP race. The 2025 winner is having an even better season this campaign. While his scoring is slightly down, his efficiency is up. Gilgeous-Alexander is on pace to become the third player in 13 seasons of tracking data to shoot at least 50% on over 300 pull-up 2-pointers and 38% on at least 150 pull-up threes. Combine his efficiency with historic consistency - he broke Wilt Chamberlain's 20-point game streak last week - and you have the makings of a back-to-back MVP.

Odds: -1000

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