LeBron James is heading to the open market.
The 41-year-old informed the Lakers that he will move on from the organization for his record-extending 24th season and become a free agent for the fourth time in his career.
Any team with NBA title aspirations should be making a pitch to sign one of the all-time greats, but which teams are most likely to land the four-time MVP?
LeBron's next team odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Warriors | -110 |
| Cavaliers | +110 |
| Heat | +800 |
| Spurs | +3300 |
Warriors (-110)
The Warriors are positioning themselves to double-dip for James and fellow Klutch Sports client Anthony Davis. Draymond Green furnished them with some financial wiggle room when he declined his $27.7-million player option, presumably in favor of a longer-term deal with a lower annual value. A full non-taxpayer mid-level exception in the neighborhood of $15 million for James and a Jimmy Butler-Davis swap could get it done. From a basketball perspective, this one makes a lot of sense. - Michael J. Chandler
What the odds say
The Warriors were +100 favorites when the odds for LeBron's next team were first available, but those odds drastically shortened to -210 once the news broke that he'd be leaving Los Angeles. After the market finally settled, Golden State is -110 (52.4% implied probability) to unite James and Steph Curry in the Bay Area.
Golden State is currently +2500 to win the NBA title, odds that would likely shorten if it can bring in both James and Davis this offseason. - Eric Patterson
Cavaliers (+110)
The Cavaliers are reportedly keen for James to finish his career where it started via a second reunion. Cap constraints limit the Cavs to offering a taxpayer mid-level around $6 million or an even thriftier veteran's minimum unless they can package Jarrett Allen and his $28-million cap hit. That will require approval from both the Lakers and James, who finished his second stay in Cleveland with a four-game sweep by the Warriors in the 2018 NBA Finals. - Chandler
What the odds say
Don't count out the possibility of a third stint for LeBron in Cleveland. The Cavs are the second favorite at +110 (47.6% implied probability) to bring back James despite their cap situation. Cleveland, which was just swept in the Eastern Conference finals, is currently the fourth favorite at +900 to win the East next season. Landing LeBron would immediately put them alongside the Celtics and Knicks as top contenders in the conference. - Patterson
Heat (+800)
James could also circle back to South Beach, where he led the Heat to back-to-back titles as part of a four-year run before heading back to Cleveland. The Heat could ditch some salary to table a roughly $15-million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, or swing a potentially tricky sign-and-trade involving Andrew Wiggins' freshly ratified $30.2-million player option and potentially a third team. A Giannis Antetokounmpo-Bam Adebayo-James frontcourt would immediately vault Miami into the title discussion. - Chandler
What the odds say
The Heat just signed Antetokounmpo, so could the all-in push continue by bringing LeBron back to Miami? The Heat are +650 (11.1% implied probability) to lure James to the East Coast, so it will certainly take some convincing. However, the Heat currently have the best championship odds (+1800) of all the teams considered to be in the mix. If LeBron really wants one last title shot, Miami may be his best choice. - Patterson
Spurs (+3300)
In terms of franchises that can offer the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth about $15 million and legitimately fulfill James' desire for a fifth ring, teaming up with Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle in San Antonio checks off both boxes. Rob Pelinka and the Lakers' brass are unlikely to be talked into taking on De'Aaron Fox and his absurd four-year, $229-million pact in a sign-and-trade if James is interested in a higher annual salary - but the Spurs won't find out if they don't ask. - Chandler
What the odds say
The Spurs are definitely long shots to sign LeBron, but his experience may be the missing piece for a young lineup that just lost in the Finals. The Spurs are co-favorites with the Thunder to win the 2027 championship, and adding James would only boost their already strong title chances. - Patterson
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