Favorites are conquering March Madness, but which long shot can win?

For the first time in NCAA Tournament history, there isn't a single mid-major squad in the Sweet 16. March Madness has delivered fewer upsets than previous tournaments, but some early-round duds should lead to thrilling games between the country's best teams in later rounds.

Favorites are conquering the tournament, and history says that's likely to continue: Thirteen of the past 17 national champions have been 1-seeds. With all four top seeds still alive, the Final Four will likely be flooded with No. 1 teams, and the oddsboard agrees the eventual champion will almost certainly be a top seed. However, there's not much value there - so which long shot is worth wagering on?

National title/Final Four odds

Odds via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet

Maryland's national prominence has grown since Derik Queen drove left and banked in a buzzer-beating fadeaway off the glass, sending the Terrapins to their first Sweet 16 since 2016. But this run shouldn't surprise college basketball fans.

Maryland finished second in the Big Ten and has won 14 of its last 17 games. The Terps have the highest-scoring starting lineup in the country - nicknamed the "Crab Five" - with exceptional guard play, quality shooters, and a balanced frontcourt. Maryland ranks in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom.

The Terps can win a low-scoring defensive contest or compete in a shootout. That's what makes Maryland so dangerous this time of year. Its last four losses came on game-winning field goals, and it looked like a fifth straight heartbreaking defeat was on the horizon before Queen's heroics knocked off Colorado State.

After entering the first two games as a hefty favorite, Maryland is a 6.5-point underdog in its Sweet 16 showdown against No. 1 seed Florida. Why are the Terps the best long-shot pick? It starts with their path.

The West Region is the only one that's knocked a top-two seed out of the tournament, so Maryland wouldn't face St. John's in a potential Elite Eight matchup. Despite the Johnnies' offensive woes, many predicted the nation's top defense could carry them to a Final Four. No. 10 seed Arkansas and No. 3 seed Texas Tech are formidable opponents, but every other region still has a 2-seed alive.

That said, Maryland must upset Florida before it can consider its Elite Eight opponent. Of all the top seeds, however, that's Maryland's best matchup. Houston and Duke have two combined losses in their last 59 games, and Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed for good reason.

Florida has terrific rebounding and passing bigs and a lethal backcourt led by All-American Walter Clayton Jr., who shined with 23 points in the Round of 32 win over UConn. The team showed impressive resiliency by pulling away from the two-time defending champions in the final minutes, especially considering head coach Todd Golden hadn't won a tournament game entering the Big Dance. The Gators have the nation's second-best offense, but UConn's defense forced them into tough shots and limited their second-chance opportunities. The Huskies' problem was that they couldn't make threes, connecting on just 27% of their looks.

Maryland is a better shooting team than UConn, so that shouldn't be an issue for the Terps. They also boast the nation's sixth-best defense. Despite Florida's talent and depth, Maryland should be able to string together stops. The Terps' weakness, however, is defensive rebounding, which could pose a problem against Florida's fourth-best offensive rebounding rate. If Florida continuously creates second-chance opportunities, Maryland doesn't have a prayer.

But the Terps can keep up offensively in a game that will likely go down to the wire. Other than the remaining No. 1 and 2 seeds, Maryland has the second-best net rating among teams still dancing. If it escapes Florida, there's a chance it could be favored in an Elite Eight showdown.

Maryland is +450 to make the Final Four. Other potential long shots like Arizona, Kentucky, or Ole Miss have worse odds to get there because of their more challenging paths. Considering Maryland's starting five, favorable roadmap, and momentum, the Terps are worth investing in to disrupt the chalk.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.