CFP semifinals picks: Will Ole Miss continue storybook run vs. Miami?
And then there were four. No one could have honestly predicted this year's final four back in August. This lineup marks a shift away from the dominance of traditional college football powerhouses, reflecting the sport's new era shaped by NIL, the transfer portal, and playoff expansion.
Miami was the last team from this group to win a national title in 2001. Ole Miss' lone championship came in 1960, while Oregon and Indiana are still waiting for their first. Needless to say, these programs are unfamiliar with this spot, which should create thrilling semifinal matchups Thursday and Friday night.
🏈 Full College Football Playoff odds can be found on theScore Bet here
Fiesta Bowl - Thursday, Jan. 8 - 7:30 p.m. ET
Game location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
🏈 Pick: Miami (-3)
Lane Kiffin can feign happiness for his former players, but it must kill him inside to watch Ole Miss make a run without him. Though the Rebels have rallied around their coach's controversial departure, will that be enough to upset the Hurricanes?
Miami had the most difficult path to the semifinals, defeating Texas A&M and Ohio State as underdogs. Despite bookmakers favoring the Buckeyes by 9.5 points, the Hurricanes were the better and more dominant team from the opening kickoff. Their advantage against Ole Miss - and in their last two wins - lies up front, where both the offensive and defensive lines are loaded with NFL-caliber talent. Miami's physicality in the trenches, particularly on the defensive line, should disrupt the Rebels. The Hurricanes' formidable front has already made a statement in these playoffs, holding Texas A&M and Ohio State to 17 combined points.
Ole Miss' defense made timely stops against Georgia, but it still allowed a ton of yards and points. The Rebels' rushing defense sits outside the top 60 nationally, surrendering 146 yards on the ground per game. That poses a problem, considering Miami ran for over 150 yards in back-to-back postseason outings against sturdy run defenses. For Miami, keeping the ball out of quarterback Carson Beck's hands and avoiding turnovers is key for the offense.
The Rebels' offense has been nearly unstoppable, making it difficult to fade them, especially as underdogs. But Trinidad Chambliss hasn't faced a pass rush as dominant as Miami's. Ole Miss's storybook run ends Thursday night.
Peach Bowl - Friday, Jan. 9 - 7:30 p.m.
Game location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
🏈 Pick: Oregon (+3.5)
Oregon has become a tougher, more physical group since its 30-20 loss to Indiana on Oct. 11. The Ducks responded by ripping off eight straight wins, punctuated by a 23-0 quarterfinal shutout of Texas Tech. This doesn't diminish Indiana's achievements, as the program remains the nation's most dominant team and the rightful title favorite.
However, this contest is more of a toss-up than the spread indicates. Both teams boast top-10 offenses and defenses, setting the stage for a highly competitive showdown. Oregon's running attack proved effective in the first game against Indiana, but the Ducks' fate will come down to quarterback Dante Moore. Assuming Moore declares for the draft, he'll be in contention for the No. 1 overall draft pick after his breakout season. Indiana signal-caller Fernando Mendoza is also a strong candidate for the top selection, further raising the stakes in this marquee matchup.
Moore's dual-threat ability presents major challenges for defenses, but Indiana's unit forced him to throw two interceptions in October. Moore has thrown four picks in his last four games and must prioritize better ball security against a Hoosiers team that capitalizes on mistakes and rarely makes its own. Oregon will need to play at a near-perfect level. Still, I trust Moore to deliver in the biggest game of his career, and I believe head coach Dan Lanning will have the Ducks ready to match Indiana's physicality. The Hoosiers might win, but this contest is coming down to a late field goal.
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