Parity has long been one of the NFL's key features, and it'll likely be on full display again in 2026.
The New England Patriots and Chicago Bears notably made deep playoff runs last season, only a year after finishing last in their respective divisions. The Patriots even reached the Super Bowl before falling short against the Seattle Seahawks.
Can any team replicate that? Here are this season's worst-to-first candidates, ranked by their chances of winning the division after placing last in 2025.
8. Arizona Cardinals
2025 record: 3-14
Crazy things could happen this season, but the Cardinals winning the NFC West isn't one of them. Arizona will start Jacoby Brissett, Minshew, or rookie Beck at quarterback, limiting its ceiling at the sport's most important position. And the defense, which ranked in the bottom 10 in sacks and passer rating allowed, didn't receive any major reinforcement.
Whoever wins the QB battle will at least be surrounded by a strong cast with wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, tight end Trey McBride, and third overall pick Love.
Even if Arizona punches above its weight under first-year coach Mike LaFleur, a division title sounds impossible. The Cards face the third-hardest strength of schedule, and their division rivals are all playoff teams, including the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the mighty favorite Los Angeles Rams.
7. Cleveland Browns
2025 record: 5-12
Cleveland revamped its offensive line and added promising youngsters, including four draftees over the first two rounds in April. But the Browns know it's still too early for a division title; they even traded Myles Garrett to the Rams. The team hasn't worn a division crown since 1989 (while in the AFC Central) and needs years of development to potentially challenge the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers in the always tough AFC North.
Cleveland, now coached by first-year boss Todd Monken, has a dubious QB competition ongoing. Deshaun Watson, who's had a disastrous Browns tenure, is coming off an Achilles injury, while Shedeur Sanders threw seven touchdowns against 10 interceptions with a 56.6% completion rate in eight appearances as a rookie.
At least the Browns have something cooking at other positions. Verse, who came over in the Garrett trade, is already a two-time Pro Bowler. And other young studs such as running backs Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson, tight end Harold Fannin Jr., defensive lineman Mason Graham, and Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger are only entering Year 2.
6. New York Jets
2025 record: 3-14
Expect improvement, but the AFC East title feels like too big a task for the revamped Jets. New York made three first-round picks in the draft. Geno's experience and leadership will be important even if he can't regain his Pro Bowl form. He has talented skill-position weapons around him, too, with Cooper and Sadiq joining Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Defensively, the club could have eight new starters, including Ponds, Fitzpatrick, and Wright in a secondary that didn't register a single interception in 2025.
But the jury is still out on head coach Aaron Glenn; New York struggled mightily in his first year. Even the defense - Glenn's area of expertise - ranked near the bottom in most categories. He hired new defensive (Brian Duker) and offensive (Frank Reich) coordinators for 2026.
Even if everything clicks, the Jets probably don't have enough to top Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and the reigning AFC champion Patriots. Leaving the AFC East's basement to the Miami Dolphins and fighting for a wild-card playoff spot are more realistic goals for a team that hasn't made the postseason since the 2010 campaign.
5. Las Vegas Raiders
2025 record: 3-14
There are renewed hopes for the Raiders, who have a rookie coach, a revamped QB room, and several newcomers. Klint Kubiak has big decisions to make, starting with when to pull the veteran Cousins and start No. 1 pick Mendoza. Kubiak also has work to do with the rest of the offense; tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty are solid weapons, but Nailor, Tre Tucker, and Jack Bech don't make for an impressive WR group.
Defensively, the Raiders handed out contracts of questionable value, but Dean, Walker, Paye, and Johnson should elevate the team's floor. Plus, the failed Maxx Crosby trade to the Ravens kept Las Vegas' best defender in town.
The AFC West will be a big challenge for Kubiak. The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers made the playoffs last season, and the Kansas City Chiefs will be strong again in 2026 with Patrick Mahomes recovered from a torn ACL. All three are steps ahead of Las Vegas.
4. Tennessee Titans
2025 record: 3-14
The Titans are banking on Cam Ward to make a significant jump. The 2025 No. 1 pick passed for 10 touchdowns with one interception in the second half of an otherwise challenging rookie season. Tennessee hired Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator and upgraded its receiving room with top-five pick Tate and 1,000-yard wideout Robinson. They joined Calvin Ridley and second-year pros Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike, both of whom posted 400-plus receiving yards and four touchdowns as rookies.
The defense is a concern despite All-Pro lineman Jeffery Simmons being in his prime. But there's hope that defensive-minded coach Robert Saleh can fix it.
The Titans aren't the division's best team, but the AFC South doesn't have an established powerhouse. The reigning division champion Jacksonville Jaguars suffered notable free-agency losses and haven't had back-to-back playoff seasons since 1998-99. The Indianapolis Colts haven't made the postseason since 2020. And what should we make of the Houston Texans and their stout defense if C.J. Stroud's struggles continue? It's unlikely that Tennessee claims the division but not impossible.
3. New York Giants
2025 record: 4-13
Giants fans are excited, and how could they not be? New head coach John Harbaugh is an established winner. He now has a second-year quarterback with breakout potential in Jaxson Dart, an improved O-line, and standout skill-position weapons in receiver Malik Nabers, running back Cam Skattebo, and tight end Likely.
So, why aren't the Giants ranked higher? Injury concerns, mostly.
Dart must adjust his playing style to stay healthy long term. Skattebo's rookie season ended prematurely due to a dislocated ankle, and he scared Giants fans after his recent botched backflip. Nabers isn't a lock to play in Week 1, considering the timeline of his return from a torn ACL is still up in the air.
But other NFC East teams have questions too. The Dallas Cowboys were limited to seven wins each of the past two seasons. The Washington Commanders haven't won the division since 2020. And the Philadelphia Eagles aren't as dominant as when they won it all two years ago. It will be difficult, but a worst-to-first path exists for the Giants if things click - and they get a bit of injury luck.
2. Detroit Lions
2025 record: 9-8
Every team on this list has issues - there's a reason they finished last. But the Lions, owners of a top-five offense, have answers to most of their questions.
They took the NFC North in 2023 and '24, and won nine games in a down 2025. Their offensive core of Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs remains intact. Gibbs, in particular, will likely have an even bigger role after David Montgomery's trade to Houston. All-Pro lineman Penei Sewell is moving to left tackle, so first-round rookie Miller will step in on the right.
Detroit's biggest unknown is its offensive play-caller; Drew Petzing replaced fired coordinator John Morton. Gibbs recently said the team is ahead of where it was in 2025, according to ESPN. Defensively, the secondary is missing star defensive backs Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, who don't yet have timelines to return to action.
Playing in a tough division leaves the Lions with little margin for error and keeps them out of our top spot. Every NFC North team had at least nine wins in 2025, including the first-place Bears (11). But Chicago is a strong regression candidate, and we expect Detroit to be in the mix for the division crown again.
1. New Orleans Saints
2025 record: 6-11
The Saints check several boxes as our strongest worst-to-first candidate. Weak division? Check. An emerging quarterback? Check. Continuity on the sideline? Roster upgrades? Easy schedule? Check, check, check.
New Orleans faces the second-easiest schedule based on its opponents' 2025 win percentages. That could be the difference-maker in a division that's only had one winner with double-digit victories since 2022. The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South last season at 8-9.
Tyler Shough, a 2025 second-rounder, ranked ninth in EPA/play from Weeks 13-18. He completed 67% of his passes in 11 appearances (nine starts) and helped New Orleans win four of its final five games. A strong Year 2 is within reach for him, especially considering the arrivals of first-round receiver Tyson, experienced guard Edwards, and 1,000-yard rusher Etienne. That trio could end up representing a highly successful offseason after playing alongside longtime Saints tailback Alvin Kamara and second-team All-Pro wideout Chris Olave.
It's also Year 2 for head coach Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who helped New Orleans go from 19th to 10th in defensive EPA/play. The 2025 Saints ranked only 19th in points allowed, so another season in town could help Staley in that department.
The 2026 Saints may not even need a huge jump from 6-11. A three-win improvement could place them atop the NFL's worst division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are declining, and the Atlanta Falcons and Panthers haven't enjoyed a winning season since 2017.
