Week 10 betting primer: How will Daniels handle toughest test of rookie season?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The NFL regular season officially enters the second half with the start of Week 10 on Thursday night. Time flies when you're having fun!

We picked five games from this week's slate with storylines worth discussing.

Jump to: CIN @ BAL | PIT @ WAS | SF @ TB | PHI @ DAL | DET @ HOU

Thursday Night Football

What a way to kick off Week 10.

The Bengals are in Baltimore for a classic AFC North showdown with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson's side is 6-3 and vying for the division lead with the Steelers. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow will look to pull the Bengals to .500 after losing four of their first five games to start the year.

Case for the Bengals

• Burrow is 3-5 straight up in his career against the Ravens, but only two of those losses were by more than six points.
• While struggling, the Bengals hosted the Ravens in Week 5 and lost by three in overtime.

Case for the Ravens

• Baltimore is the second-best team in the NFL based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) compared to the Bengals, who are 17th. The Ravens closed as 8.5-point favorites at home over the Broncos last week, a team of similar caliber to this current Bengals group.

X-factors

• Derrick Henry is a man on a mission. He's leading the NFL in nearly every rushing category and was the perfect offseason addition for the Ravens. However, the Bengals give up the sixth-fewest yards per rush (4.2) and may be able to limit Henry, who has a rush prop total of 89.5 yards.
• The Ravens' defense gives up the most passing yards per game (280.9) and teams are exploiting their weak secondary. Opposing teams call passing plays at the second-highest rate when facing the Ravens, and the Bengals throw the ball on 60.75% of their plays (sixth-most in the league). Burrow's passing yard total is set at 274.5 (+110).

Best bet - Bengals +6.5

Taking Burrow and the points in what should be a tight divisional matchup is the way to play this game. Yes, Baltimore is a great team, but Cincinnati is trending in the right direction and always seems to put up a good fight against division rivals.

Best prop - Joe Burrow over 274.5 passing yards + over 34.5 pass attempts (+163)

The way to attack the Ravens' defense is through the air - which Burrow can certainly do. He threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns in the Bengals' Week 5 loss while attempting 39 passes.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

Perhaps the two biggest surprises of the 2024 season square off in a battle between division-leading teams. The 7-2 Commanders host the 6-2 Steelers with Washington laying three points at home. Will Jayden Daniels earn his eighth victory of the season, or will Russell Wilson inch Pittsburgh closer to another playoff berth?

Case for the Steelers

• You'd be profitable if you took the Steelers every time they were underdogs against the spread (ATS) with Mike Tomlin as their head coach. They've covered 62.8% of games (the best rate in the NFL) as underdogs since the start of 2007.
• Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS and 2-0 as an underdog this season.
• The Steelers are coming off their bye and, at this point, rest is beneficial.

Case for the Commanders

• Other than the Chiefs, the Commanders may be the hottest team in the NFL. Their only two losses came in Jayden Daniels' first game against the Buccaneers and on the road in Baltimore in Week 6.
• Washington is 7-1-1 ATS this season, the second-best record behind the Lions.

X-factors

• While playing above expectations, the Commanders' defense still concedes 142.3 rush yards per contest. The Steelers operate one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league and are averaging the eighth-most rushing yards per game (138.1).
• Going up against the Steelers' stout defense will be the toughest test of Daniels' career. Pittsburgh has the third-best defense according to DVOA, and the only time the Commanders' rookie quarterback has faced a top-10 DVOA defense (the Bears), he needed a Hail Mary on the final play to score 18 points.

Best bet - Steelers +2.5

This is a tough spot for the Commanders - the Steelers are starting to roll. Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt-led defense will give Daniels looks and schemes he's not yet seen. If the Commanders can only muster 18 points as they did against the Bears, Wilson should have no problem scoring enough points to win, let alone cover.

Best prop - Jayden Daniels over 44.5 rushing yards (+100)

Assuming the Steelers put pressure on Daniels, the rookie quarterback will be flushed from the pocket more often than he'd like. Daniels rushed eight times for 52 yards against the Bears and 11 times for 82 yards against the Browns - two teams that generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The 49ers make the trip east to take on the Buccaneers in a crucial outing for both teams. San Francisco is coming off its bye and is 4-4, good for third in the NFC West. Meanwhile, the Bucs are looking to end a three-game losing skid after dropping a tough road contest against the Chiefs on Monday night.

Case for the 49ers

• The 49ers should have Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup, a huge boost to an offense in need of some healthy pieces.
• San Francisco has a huge rest advantage coming off its bye while the Bucs played on the road Monday night.

Case for the Buccaneers

• The 49ers are fifth in DVOA while the Bucs are 12th. This spread indicates the 49ers would be over a touchdown favorite if the game were played on a neutral field, which seems like a lot of points to lay.

X-factors

• The 49ers' incredible running attack will only get more dangerous with McCaffrey back in the lineup. The Bucs' defense, meanwhile, allows 4.9 rush yards per game (fifth-most in the league).
• Tampa Bay scored 24 points against Kansas City without a handful of key offensive pieces. Cade Otton seems to be Baker Mayfield's only receiving weapon and will need another big game to keep the Bucs close.

Best bet - 49ers -6

The Buccaneers are at the end of a tough stretch in which they've faced the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and now the 49ers ahead of their Week 11 bye. The rest advantage skews far too heavily in San Francisco's favor. Tampa could already be looking forward to its week off.

Best prop - Bucky Irving over 2.5 receptions (+100)

Without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield has no choice but to look elsewhere. Bucky Irving has stepped up, catching three or more passes in three straight games. He's caught 23 of his 25 targets this season. Irving is a trusted option for Mayfield out of the backfield and the Bucs should be in a game script that forces them to pass.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

Any game played at Jerry World gets a ton of attention, and this week is no different. The Cowboys' season is on the line, and they'll rely on backup quarterback Cooper Rush to keep the hope alive. The Eagles have won four straight since their bye week and would love to hammer a nail into the coffin of their division rival's campaign.

Case for the Eagles

• The Eagles are the better team by far, ranking ninth in DVOA compared to the Cowboys, who sit 25th.
• With Dak Prescott out, the Cowboys' outlook is bleak. Perhaps the players feel the same way.

Case for the Cowboys

• Rush is 5-1 as a starter, making him one of the NFL's better backups.
• Hurts is 3-3 in his career against Dallas but hasn't beaten the Cowboys on the road.
• Micah Parsons should return, providing a much-needed boost to a struggling Cowboys defense.

X-factors

• This game will come down to Rush's performance. There's a chance he plays as well as Prescott has this season, making this 7-point spread an overreaction.
• The Cowboys' defense needs to step up and support the backup quarterback, especially against the run. Philadelphia boasts the league's best rushing attack while Dallas allows the third-most rushing yards per game (147.8).

Best bet - Cowboys +7

We'll begrudgingly side with the Cowboys and the points in this one. Rush is better than most backup quarterbacks - potentially better than some starters - so the drop-off from Prescott isn't as substantial as this spread suggests. Getting Parsons back on defense is also a huge addition.

Best prop - Saquon Barkley over 89.5 rushing yards (-115)

Barkley eclipsed 89.5 rushing yards in six of eight games this season. He's averaging 115.6 yards per game and now gets to tee off on a Cowboys defense that can't stop the run. While we like the Cowboys to cover, the Eagles should be in a favorable game script, giving Barkley plenty of opportunities to kill the clock.

Sunday Night Football

The Lions - arguably the league's best team - head to Houston for a Sunday night date with the Texans. C.J. Stroud and Co. are 6-3 and leading the AFC South, but they're certainly not playing their best football. Meanwhile, Jared Goff has the Lions' offense firing on all cylinders.

Case for the Lions

• Another week, another opportunity to discuss the Lions' incredible record against the spread. After their impressive win at Lambeau Field, they improve to 7-1 ATS this season. Detroit is 44-18 ATS since 2021, covering at a 71% clip.

Case for the Texans

• If Nico Collins returns, Houston's offense will get a welcome boost. Stroud needs more than Tank Dell to throw to, and the offense has looked disorganized without Collins.
• Stroud is 8-5 ATS as an underdog in his career.

X-factors

• The Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They've allowed the most sacks (31) and 151 pressures. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions have eight sacks in three games.
• Offensive line struggles haven't helped Stroud. He's completed 11 or fewer passes in two of the past three games, and only thrown for one touchdown over that span.
• Houston is one of the best defensive teams against the pass, allowing only 167.4 passing yards per game (third-fewest in the league), but the Lions rely on a two-headed monster in the backfield to run their offense.

Best bet - Lions -3.5

We'll continue to back the Lions against the spread. Detroit is extremely well-rounded and should be able to answer whatever questions the Texans ask on both sides of the ball. Although he played well outdoors in bad conditions last week, Goff and his high-powered offense get a road game inside a comfortable dome.

Best prop - Jahmyr Gibbs over 82.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)

Gibbs was held to 76 total yards last week versus the Packers, mainly due to the sloppy conditions and the Lions relying more on downhill-running David Montgomery to move the chains. The Lions are back in a dome this week and Gibbs has surpassed 82.5 total yards in five of seven indoor games this year.