Steelers' odds largely unchanged after Rodgers signing

The Steelers finally got their guy - at least for this season - as Aaron Rodgers agreed to a one-year deal with Pittsburgh on Thursday, finalizing a long-rumored partnership.

Pittsburgh was +5000 (tied for the 17th-best odds) to win the Super Bowl and +2000 to win the AFC (eighth-best odds) before the Rodgers news broke, and it remained in the same position following the news. Two reasons explain the lack of movement. First, it wasn't exactly a secret that Rodgers would eventually sign with the Steelers, so his presence was already baked into the lines. Second, it's not clear how much a 41-year-old Rodgers moves the needle.

The Steelers did slightly increase their odds of winning the division from +550 to +500, but that still trails the Ravens (-140) and Bengals (+225). They also moved from +150 to +140 to make the playoffs, while their win total remains at 8.5. They're -165 to miss the playoffs, meaning they have a 62% implied probability not to qualify.

Rodgers is entering his 21st season, and the four-time MVP is certainly not the gunslinger he was in his prime. His last two seasons with the Jets were a disaster. In his first drive with the franchise in 2023, Rodgers tore his Achilles and missed the entire season. The former Packer then returned and had one of the worst seasons of his career. He was likely still hindered by the Achilles injury, both physically and mentally, and New York finished 5-12 and decided to move on.

Rodgers is certainly an upgrade over others in the Steelers' quarterback room, which features Mason Rudolph and rookie Will Howard, who Pittsburgh selected in the sixth round. But part of the reason the Steelers didn't draft a quarterback in the early rounds, or sign one earlier in free agency, was the strong possibility of landing Rodgers.

The optimists will point to the last few weeks of last year's regular season, when Rodgers threw for over 250 yards and completed at least 60% of his passes in four of his last five games. He also only threw three interceptions during that span. But he ultimately tossed 11 picks last season, the second-most interceptions he's thrown in a campaign since 2010. The result is that his passing yards prop for this fall is 3,200.5. He's thrown at least 3,600 yards in every year in which he played a full campaign.

It should be noted that the Super Bowl champion is heading to a stable organization with a rock-solid culture. The Steelers have never had a losing season in Mike Tomlin's 18 years as head coach, and they've made the playoffs eight of the last 11 years. However, while they've been good in recent seasons, they've failed to make the jump to great because of inconsistent and subpar quarterback play.

Since Ben Roethlisberger retired, the Steelers have started Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Russell Wilson. Ultimately, none panned out, and Pittsburgh hasn't won a playoff game since 2016, dropping six straight postseason contests - the longest streak in the franchise's storied history. Rodgers, meanwhile, hasn't won a playoff game since 2021.

While the Steelers hope Rodgers is the missing piece to a playoff run, there are understandably many skeptics.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.