TNF betting preview: Can the Dolphins keep it close vs. Bills?
Week 3 opens with a Thursday night showdown between the Bills and Dolphins from Orchard Park. The Bills are off to a 2-0 start and are considered one of the top teams in the league, while the 0-2 Dolphins are viewed as one of the league's worst.
Let's dive into the matchup with our game pick, player props, and touchdown scorers for the Thursday nighter.
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π Pick: Bills (-11.5)
After considering taking the Dolphins and the points against a division rival on a short week, the idea ultimately felt a little too cute. Sure, there may be a scenario where the Dolphins' offense keeps them in this game, but Mike McDaniel's scheme is no longer fooling opposing defenses the way it used to. And even if they do score, the defense can't stop anyone. Miami allowed 33 points in back-to-back games against the Colts and Patriots, and neither of those teams has Josh Allen at quarterback.
Thursday night games can be sloppy since teams have less time than usual to game-plan for their opponent. However, the familiarity between the Bills and the Dolphins should mitigate that lack of prep time. In my opinion, that bodes well for the better team. For the Dolphins to have any chance of keeping this close, they need Allen to be unprepared to play, which seems unlikely.
Allen continues to perform at an MVP level and should carry that form into Week 3. He led Buffalo to an incredible comeback victory over the Ravens, scoring 41 points against a solid Baltimore defense. There was no letdown in Buffalo's Week 2 meeting with the Jets, when the Bills put 30 points on the Jets in a 20-point victory.
The Bills have the firepower to cover 11.5 points and showed their unwillingness to let up against a divisional opponent. If their defense can hold Tua Tagovailoa's offense to under 20 points, this cover shouldn't be a problem, especially when the Bills have a realistic chance at putting up 40 points.
π Bet: Over 69.5 rushing yards
Expect James Cook to be heavily involved in a game the Bills should lead nearly the entire time. Cook gashed the Jets' rush defense last week for 132 yards on 21 carries. The Dolphins conceded 112 rushing yards to Colts running backs in Week 1 and let Rhamondre Stevenson average 4.9 yards per carry last week.
π Bet: Over 2.5 receptions
You have to pay some juice on this prop, but it's worth it since the betting market isn't treating Keon Coleman as the top receiving option in Buffalo. Coleman has 11 catches through two games and leads the team in targets (14). Allen still likes to spread the ball around, but three catches shouldn't be hard to achieve in a game where the Bills have a team total of 31.5 points.
π Bet: Over 39.5 receiving yards
The Dolphins should be forced into passing situations early, and Achane is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. He caught eight passes for 92 yards in last week's shootout versus the Patriots and has surpassed 39.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 13 games when Tagovailoa is under center.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+175)
After a lackluster season opener, Hill bounced back in Week 2 with six receptions for 109 receiving yards. The 31-year-old remains the top pass-catcher on the Dolphins and has recorded 19 touchdowns over his last 35 games. At +175, Hill provides the best value of any Dolphins player in this Thursday night contest.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+260)
Buffalo's offensive players don't have great odds for this game since the Bills are heavily favored. However, Kincaid is in a great range to bet on. The 25-year-old scored a touchdown last week and has an excellent matchup against the Dolphins. Miami's struggled against tight ends so far this year, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to the position.
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