Odds history: Seahawks', Patriots' unlikely paths to Super Bowl
After the incredible regular seasons the Patriots and Seahawks put together, it was reasonable to expect them to reach the Super Bowl. But back in September? The outcome was unthinkable. Before the season began, New England held 75-1 odds to win the Super Bowl on theScore Bet, while Seattle was 60-1, creating the most improbable Super Bowl matchup ever, according to Sports Odds History, which goes back to 1970.
A Super Bowl matchup ticket featuring the Seahawks and the Patriots was 1150-1 during the preseason, meaning a $10 bet would have netted $11,150.
Few bettors cashed in on the long shots; 0.82% of early Super Bowl bettors chose New England to win the big game on theScore Bet, and 0.45% picked Seattle. The 1999 St. Louis Rams, who won Super Bowl XXXIV as 150-1 preseason long shots, hold the record across all six major sports for the champion with the longest preseason odds.
The Patriots' path became even more daunting after a 1-2 start, which pushed their odds up to 100-1. For comparison, Indiana was 100-1 to win the national championship before the college football season began.
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Patriots' odds history
| Moment | Odds |
|---|---|
| Preseason | +7500 |
| Week 3 loss to Steelers (fell to 1-2) | +10000 |
| Week 5 win over Bills (moved to 3-2) | +5000 |
| Week 8 win over Browns (moved to 6-2) | +2500 |
| Week 13 win over Giants (10-game win streak) | +1000 |
| Entering playoffs | +900 |
The Patriots' odds started to drop after their win over the Bills and continued to decline as their win streak grew. However, skeptics often pointed to the team's easy schedule as reason for its strong record, which made oddsmakers and bettors hesitant to believe in New England, especially with a quarterback who didn't have postseason experience. Entering the playoffs, the Patriots held the third-best odds among AFC teams and sixth-best odds overall.
Seahawks' odds history
| Moment | Odds |
|---|---|
| Preseason | +6000 |
| Week 2 win over Steelers (moved to 1-1) | +7500 |
| Week 7 win over Texans (moved to 5-2) | +2500 |
| Week 10 win over Cardinals (moved to 7-2) | +1100 |
| Week 16 OT win over Rams (moved to 12-3) | +700 |
| Entering playoffs | +425 |
The Seahawks steadily climbed up the oddsboard as the season progressed, with their only dip coming after they lost their season opener to the 49ers. Seattle's seven-game win streak to close the regular season, which included an overtime win versus the Rams on Thursday Night Football, paved the way to the NFC's No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
While the Seahawks entered the playoffs as Super Bowl favorites, critics pointed to Sam Darnold's struggles in big moments as a potential pitfall. Of course, Darnold silenced the doubters with a three-touchdown, 346-yard performance in the NFC championship.
The Super Bowl spread opened at Seahawks -3.5 but quickly shifted to -4.5, as bettors pounced on Seattle.
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